Saturday Forecast

29 Comments

1:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A cold weekend for southeastern New England with the only precipitation threat being scattered snow showers from a passing trough this evening. A broad low pressure area will pass well south of New England Monday but as it strengthens and turns northeastward in the western Atlantic it will help pull another batch of cold air out of eastern Canada. By Wednesday, warmer air will be trying to move in aloft while the surface is still cold. This will result in at least cloudiness and possibly some very light snow. In addition, surface winds will turn onshore, and some ocean moisture may add snow showers to eastern areas.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny through early afternoon then partly cloudy. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with scattered snow showers evening then clear overnight. Lows 8-14 except 15-20 urban areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-36. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty very light snow possible interior especially higher elevations, and scattered snow showers in the eastern coastal plain. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Milder air becomes more established December 13-14 with some cloudiness and passing rain showers possible each of these days, then a larger storms system brings rain/wind to the region December 15 then lingering rain/mix/snow showers December 16 as the low center crosses the region. Upper level low pressure may bring a few snow showers as it turns slightly colder December 17.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)
A transitional pattern with high pressure aloft dominant but moving eastward and then may become strongest in east central Canada while a trough of low pressure undercuts it. This pattern would start mild and trend colder and also be somewhat unsettled with possible episodes of rain/snow. It’s far too soon to know any details in terms of timing and what type of precipitation will occur where and when.

29 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Although there is still plenty of time and forecasts out 16 days are virtually useless, the prospects for a white Christmas are looking bleak at best. Here’s hoping.

  8. Thanks TK
    Going to get the Christmas tree today for my mom and stepdad’s house. It will be now where near the 75 degrees it was when we got the tree 20 years ago when people were in shorts and short sleeves. Last year was the first time we got the tree in the snow. I’ll will be putting up my fake Christmas tree tomorrow.

  9. TK – This is very much off topic but just curious. Did you go to JFK Middle School? Only reason I ask is that there was a stabbing there on Thursday. Two students fighting.

    1. I did. And yes there was. We have very few problems like that here in Woburn. Isolated incident and the staff and police handled it expertly. Hopefully everybody will get the help needed to make the situation better.

      1. Very sad that even these “isolated” incidents happen in schools these days. I am somewhat surprised though that minors under 12 cannot be criminally charged under state law.

  11. Let’s see, today is December 8th, 23 days since the snow event of 11/15.

    Here is a shot of Roche Brothers Parking lot in W. Roxbury this morning.

    This is a remaining snow pile 23 days after an “official” 0.01 inch Boston Snowfall.

    Something is wrong with this picture.

    1. Loop it. You’ll see that a fair amount of that depicted snow is coming from mid and upper level energy from the northwest. That is the system I’ve been mentioning for several days timed for around December 12.

  15. Nice test for GFS vs FV3 upcoming. I have suspected for a while that the Canadian warm-up is actually going to evolve into a blocking pattern for a period of time as we approach and surpass the solstice. Today’s 12z runs of GFS and FV3 are different, with the former not really showing that blocking nearly as much as the latter. This will be a good test to see if anomalous patterns such as blocking are predicted better in that time range by the “new” GFS. Granted, this is one case study, but we can only do live studies as weather happens.

  16. This may or may not mean a thing but when we had our November snow event MJO was very weak phase 5. It is predicted to be there again just after mid December. 😉

      1. Itsy bitsy piece of puzzle and it may have just been “luck” last time. MJO phases from end of 7 through beginning of 2 are often the greatest snow phases but that does not mean it will snow there, nor does it mean it cannot snow when the MJO is elsewhere. Just a moderate rule of thumb. A lot more is at work.

  17. The models are continuing to prove my struggle theory since today’s 12z ECMWF is vastly different than the previous run in many aspects.

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