Sunday Forecast

52 Comments

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
The cold and dry pattern will be with us for a while longer, but there are changes on the horizon which will present clues of their arrival before the end of this 5-day period. First, we have high pressure protecting the region from a storm which will pass well south of New England over the next couple days, but at this storm blows up offshore it will expand enough that its interaction with high pressure to the north of the region will turn the wind northeast by Wednesday. This, combined with some warming getting start above us at the same time, will create more cloudiness and perhaps some flakes of snow in the area. Not a big storm but something to watch as any time ocean-effect snow is possible there can be at least small areas of greater impact. But that’s a few days away and I have time to focus on it. In the mean time, just cold and dry. That milder air arriving aloft by Wednesday will finally be felt at the surface by the end of this period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 30-36. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty very light snow possible interior especially higher elevations, and scattered snow showers in the eastern coastal plain. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
A low pressure system will impact the region from December 14 through 16 with cloudiness and possible rain showers or areas of light rain December 14, the greatest chance of rain and wind for at least a portion of December 15, and gusty winds with rain/snow showers December 16. Windy, colder December 17 with possible snow showers otherwise drier then fair and chilly December 18 behind storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Milder again with possible rain showers in the December 19-20 period for the final two days of astronomical autumn, then a transition to a more seasonable chill and will have to watch a disturbance for possible mix/snow showers at some point December 22-23.

52 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Still not much hope for a White Christmas, although the FV3-GFS tries
    around 12/23.

      1. sometimes with the Ice, the melted rock freezes before it can get all the way down of course it depends on what type of eruption it is.

  6. Looking at radars in the Mid-Atlantic, VA/NC are certainly a wintry mess. Very strange to see my relatives cities in deep “blues and pinks”. I may give some a quick call later depending on what the evening newscasts have to say about amounts, etc.

  7. Thanks TK
    Snow lovers in interior NC and VA are very happy this Sunday morning. Snow lovers up here like me feeling jealous. A Cowboys win over the Eagles later today will make me feel better.

    1. I would be curious as to how many snow lovers are there in those areas. My relatives there don’t really like snow. I am probably the he only one in my family who does since I am the farthest north. 😉

  10. The dry air that is over us must have chewed up the northern fringe because now there is no more precip (snow) over much of the major Mid-Atlantic cities. Still plenty of snow on radar over NC/VA mountains though.

  11. Thanks TK. Even here in southern NJ, we are well clear of the snow shield to our south. A major and historic snowstorm is in progress across much of Virginia and the Carolinas.

    I think we’ve been telegraphing the longer range pattern very well of late, at least having decent confidence 2-4 weeks in advance of a major pattern change. We’re in the thick of the cold and dry stretch that had been expected. The only uncertainty was how far north this current storm would come, and as it turned out it stayed well south. Next up is the long anticipated mid-month warm-up, which remains very much on track for ~12/15-12/25. I think the next thing to watch after that is a potential shift back to colder and maybe stormier near or even slightly before 12/25 as the western North American pattern tries to realign, potentially accompanied by the formation of a blocking or pseudo-blocking pattern that TK has talked about. It’ll be an interesting evolution, and one that should provide us with a lot of variety over the rest of this month.

    2. I’m going to love watching the evolution. Just putting the hemispheric 500 chart into motion is fascinating. Just watching the atmospheric circulation depicted this way and then realizing we are zeroing in not only on this large scale pattern but the impact it has right down to a local level, timing it, and doing a relatively decent job. Meteorology is an amazing science.

      I’m going to go out on a limb and say parts of SNE get white on the Dec 22-23 weekend. Who knows what parts, assuming I’m even close to being correct. 🙂

        1. For the hail mary pass. Here’s the problem. He was a de facto safety. With little speed on a play like the one the Dolphins ran having a slow safety can be `fatal.’ Give the Dolphins credit for not throwing a hail mary. From the camera shot on the sideline before the play it appeared that the QB and coach were planning something different. But ultimately the blame goes to the missed tackles.

          1. People keep saying he was on the field for the hail mary pass possibility but 70 yard tannehill hail mary pass was never happening.

        2. I didn’t watch today. I couldn’t. But gronk has not been gronk for a while so that is no surprise to me. Not sure what happened because he sure had the talent.

    2. Agreed. Bad things happen in Miami, but this one is not a fluke. The Patriots made several uncharacteristic mental errors, including Brady’s not throwing it away just before halftime to at least allow for a field goal attempt. And then a total defensive breakdown on the last play. Missed tackles galore.

    3. Worse than pathetic! no excuse!!!

      Brady blew it at the end of the 1st half and Gostkowski missed the Pat and then
      the field goal! BRUTAL! BRUTAL! BRUTAL!!!

      And of course, the Pats defense couldn’t stop a team of Grandmothers!
      What a bunch of losers!

      USELESS to the NTH degree. Completely USELESS!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Absolutely 60 something yards you can’t tackle & end this game . This one is going to cost them Badky . Two behind KC now tied with Houston . End of rant but that was unacceptable

        1. They beat Houston earlier in the season, so they have the tiebreaker there. Pitt lost today too. #1 seed is going to be hard to get but we could still get #2 and still have it right now.

            1. 🙂 It was a pathetic way to end the game but look where we have gone after losses in Miami before 🙂

            1. True but KC could get knocked out in the divisional game too and then we have it right back. We just need to stay the course the next 3 weeks with Pittsburgh up next in Pittsburgh.

  13. When I lived in the UK for a year I watched a lot of rugby. My room-mate was a semi-professional rugby player. What you saw on that last play was rugby. The two laterals were perfectly executed. Even the way Drake eluded tacklers and ambled into the end zone was not typical of football. It looked a lot like rugby.

    1. Oh also the patriots should of had at least 1 other point if our kicker would not miss extra points. An additional 13 points at least should of been on the board for the patriots.

  15. You gotta just laugh about a game like that, right? The Pats will probably be fine, and if not, we all know this year’s team isn’t of the caliber of most of those from years past. Gostkowski will be fine. The offense is really good when on its game. The defense is pretty bad but can usually do enough to keep them in the game. We’ll see how they respond next weekend in what would’ve been probably the toughest game of the year anyways, at Pittsburgh. Just got a little bit tougher for them trying to recover from that.

    One thing that is not fine: watching Gronk move is like watching a poorly oiled robot. I feel really bad for him. He’s obviously not that old, but the game has destroyed his body. I hope he hangs it up soon.

      1. Cool. Macs uncle….his dad’s brother and a man I adored…was a Sr VP at Kodak. I wish he were here to ask questions.

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