Monday Forecast

48 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Low pressure that passed south of the region will expand in the western Atlantic early to mid week as high pressure builds in eastern Canada. This will maintain cold air in the region. By Wednesday, onshore flow may result in some snow showers in eastern coastal areas. High pressure will sink southward and be over the region by early Thursday, but then move off to the east as warmer air begins to arrive aloft, then more at the surface by Friday as we get into a more southerly air flow between that high and approaching low pressure from the west. The large scale pattern, currently dominated by the polar jet stream as had been expected to occur this week, will shift as the split flow becomes even more so with the polar jet lifting into Canada late week as milder air pushes the Arctic air out of Canada west to east.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 32-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny except some afternoon coastal clouds. Highs 27-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. East coastal snow flurries possible. Lows 18-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Possible snow showers east coastal areas, favoring MA South Shore and Cape Cod where minor accumulation may occur. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sun to clouds. Risk of very light snow/mix late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)
A low pressure area will impact the region over the weekend but its track is uncertain. Expecting at least some rain and wind Saturday December 15 and gusty breeze with rain/snow showers Sunday December 16 but a lot of this system may be pushed to the south. Generally dry weather expected December 17-19. Temperatures above normal December 15-16 weekend, near normal December 17-18, milder again end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)
This period will neither feature a big warm up nor major cold, but temperatures likely starting milder than normal then trending toward normal. Odds are against pre-Christmas snowfall, but a couple minor systems may deliver rain and/or snow showers as it stands now.

48 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    I really like this weather …… I enjoy the sunny days near both solstices to watch how low or high the sun clears the southern horizon during the day.

    1. I’m always a fan of this weather pattern. I wouldn’t mind a snow shower or squall at some point though. 🙂

  3. Yes, I still have a Patriots hangover.

    The last play, aside from poor effort, tackling and having Gronk on the field, assuming a 70 yard hail mary, really isn’t the the play of the game for me.

    The Pats could never get to a double score lead. Brady’s end of the first half sack, Gostkowski’s missed kicks and Brandon Bolden made to look like Barry Sanders are the important plays for me. Only because of those, did the last play become relevant.

    1. Since I get over stuff like that in sports pretty much right away, it’s kind of amazing to watch that play and how it all happened…

        1. They will be a complete laughingstock for the remainder of the season and Gronk will forever be on the NFL Films blooper reel. 😀

          1. Nah……If they are the laughingstock then it is just sour grapes from other teams. To my knowledge, a bunch of mistakes have been made by teams playing the Pats and I’ve never heard them laugh. The way I figure, the Pats have given us nearly two decades of phenomenal football. I love them win or lose.

    2. Dolphins this year don’t win on the road. Their wins come at home. Their next game is at vikings. They will lose.

    3. Won’t happen. Miami will lose to Minnesota this weekend. While the Patriots will lose to Pittsburgh this weekend, too. They will win their remaining games against two miserable teams at home. I’m afraid the Patriots can’t win on the road. They should have won yesterday. Alas.

      While I am disappointed about the loss, I can look at that last play objectively and say it was an absolutely beautiful play. I wish there were more laterals in football, quite frankly. Not just on desperation plays. The Dolphins outfoxed the Patriots. Simple as that. I give Miami a lot of credit.

      What would concern me most about yesterday, if I were a Patriots coach, is the defense giving up big plays to mediocre players like Bolden, and the inconsistency and lack of power shown by Sony Michel. The Patriots are missing a consistent running game with a true power back, like Blount was. It’s disgraceful how poorly Michel ran yesterday. On the last drive, he was horrible: 3 straight running plays in which he gained almost nothing. I’m surprised the Patriots didn’t mix it up a little, with an end-around or some other running play than a plain vanilla up the middle attack with Michel. Develin doesn’t have speed, but he’s powerful and can move piles. They were not quite in Develin territory, but still, showing something different might have led to a better outcome. By the way, I thought Brady looked good most of the game, aside from his end of the first half mental lapses. His pass to Gordon, which turned into a pass interference call against Miami, was brilliant. Had there not been interference I think Gordon would have scored a touchdown and we wouldn’t be talking about the Miracle in Miami.

      1. The Patriots got rid of some very good players and all have come back to haunt them. I don’t believe they have won any game recently (including last SB) when the opponent has had at least one former Patriot. CHEAPSKATES!!!

  8. Very beautiful outside today. I like this pattern we’re in, and am sad to see that the consensus is that the pattern will shift to a milder, more unsettled pattern. Don’t like that one bit. I don’t care whether it snows. But, I do want there to be a wintry feel in December. 40s and overcast never feels like winter to me.

  9. Good morning and tis a very good one at that.

    Not impressed with the weather and I have nothing to look forward to weather-wise at all.

    The Doldrums are upon us…

    I was going to say Winter Doldrums, but technically it is still autumn, but blah blah blah just the same.

    Even the snow showers for Wednesday “appear” to be a long shot. We shall see as that could change.

    1. Boston needs a wind directly off the water for those snow showers, not due north which is what may end up happening for the Cape only.

  13. Judah Cohen’s Updated blog:
    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    Some excerpts I found interesting:

    1. Our polar vortex model predicts a possible MMW (Major Midwinter Warming event) around December 27th and then the next best possible chance the end of the first week of January. But based on the ongoing and predicted disruptions of the PV, that whole period looks to be favorable for a MMW to occur.

    2. If a PV displacement that crosses the threshold of MMW status, then generally expected temperature pattern should resemble the negative AO temperature pattern from two to six possibly nine weeks after the MMW.

    3. He discusses the likelihood of a PV split and upcoming sudden stratospheric warming event in the next 30 days. This would create a warmer Arctic and favor ” more severe winter weather in the Northeastern US” but impacts of the SSW are typically delayed a few weeks.

    4. “For now, I feel more strongly that the record snow cover extent this past fall was foreshadowing the winter weather across Norther America.”

    5. Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 3. However the MJO is expected to transition to phase 4 and then weaken where to where no phase is favored over the next two weeks. MJO phases 3 through 4 favor Alaska troughing and ridging in the interior of the continent with mild temperatures and could be influencing the predicted circulation pattern across North America. The MJO phase 3 is thought to force a sudden stratospheric warming in about a month’s time.

    6. Arctic sea ice growth rate continues at a slow rate and remains well below normal. However the negative sea ice anomalies are mostly confined to two regions – the Chukchi-Beaufort and Barents-Kara Seas. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies that are most highly correlated with the strength of the stratospheric PV are across the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a weaker winter PV.

    7. Latest CFS showing above normal temp anomalies for January across the northern US.

    So what I take from this is that Judah is still favoring a flip to a colder, snowier pattern in eastern North America following an expected upcoming PV disruption and SSW event. However, this flip may be delayed by up to 30 days and we have a couple milder periods to get through first. Not sure what to make the CFS – he mentions what it shows (which is not atypical for an El Nino pattern), but doesn’t comment on it.

      2. I assume our prolific fall rains (1-2”) will continue during our upcoming winter of discontent. None of those will dare go OTS I bet. 😉

        1. Dr. Cohen should consider using more layman’s terms in his blog. Thanks Matt for “translating” his thoughts. 🙂

    2. The takeaway should be cold but dry. People tend to assume snowy when they hear colder. Not always the case.

  14. Just read about Voyager 1 and 2. Voyager 2 is now 11 billion miles from earth. Wrap your head around that. Both Voyager 1 and 2 had a `life expectancy’ of around 5 years. I guess that 40 years on you can say “they don’t make `em like they used to,” because they’re still traveling through interstellar space. Amazing. And they’re still communicating with NASA, though it takes 16.5 hours for their data to reach earth.

    Voyager 2 is apparently very cold — about 3.6 degrees Kelvin and close to the freezing point of hydrogen. While I like cold, I’m certain I would not survive in that environment.

    2. That is beyond something I can wrap my head around. Just imagine

      Thanks to TKs comment on FB, my five and two year old grands and I were on the deck to watch the international space station tonight. Always a thrill.

  16. For those who missed the ISS fly-by this evening, there are several more opportunities this week. Will list those soon along with a Geminid Meteor Shower reminder.

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