7:40AM
DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Broad low pressure offshore and high pressure to the north will combine to keep it cold and becoming a little more blustery through Wednesday along with the risk of some ocean-effect snow showers favoring Cape Cod. A disturbance from the west will enhance cloudiness and add some instability for snow shower development a little closer to the rest of the Massachusetts eastern coast tonight into Wednesday. Although high pressure takes more control as it sinks southward from eastern Canada Thursday, the remains of a disturbance from the west may bring some cloudiness in at times but no threat of precipitation. By Friday the high will shift offshore and low pressure approaches from the west, bringing a modest warm-up and a chance of rain Friday night into the start of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny except partly sunny Cape Cod and at times to the eastern MA coast. Highs 27-33. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. East coastal snow flurries possible. Lows 18-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Possible snow showers east coastal areas, favoring MA South Shore and Cape Cod where minor accumulation may occur. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 12-18. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Low pressure will continue to influence the weather December 16-17 but most of it shifting south and east of the region with some rain/snow showers possible, becoming breezy, and somewhat colder. Fair, chilly December 18. Slightly milder and watching a disturbance of some kind for a rain/snow shower risk later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
This period will neither feature a big warm up nor major cold, but temperatures likely starting milder than normal then trending toward normal. Odds are against pre-Christmas snowfall, but a couple minor systems may deliver rain and/or snow showers.
Thank you, TK.
I was reading this yesterday and saw you reference it.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/12/10/18134350/geminid-meteor-shower-2018-how-to-watch-time-date
Thanks TK.
Hi Vicki π
Hi MassBay!!!
Good morning.
Another beautiful day!!
I bet itβs beautiful in NC and VA with their deep snow cover. Iβll check with my relatives there at some point later. π
yawn
Possibilities for around the 16th???????
Nope
well, one was shot down, how about this one.
The 12Z GFS wants to deliver a very close call for a White Christmas.
This one shot down as well??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018121112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
Since that one has rain for most and snow restricted to the north, I would say an excellent chance. π
Not quite, the next frame 12 hours later delivers this….
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018121112&fh=348
Snow for everyone at 7PM Christmas night.
Dave’s Santa Claus comment does not apply since this is actually the day he will be stopping by π
What do you mean?
You Mean Right and I’m Santa Claus????? π
You got it!
12z FV3 isn’t far off from something on Christmas Day either.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018121112&fh=330
Philip, it was beautiful indeed in NC. Check out this drone footage from Boone, NC after 19″ of new snow…
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1072197125642047488
Snow was so heavy and wet you could roll it up like a blanket!
https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1072259892432510976
NWS Map of US Seasonal Snowfall to Date (thru yesterday 12/10)β¦.
https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1072439227470757888
NNE has been hammered and has gotten as much snow as many of the higher peaks out west so far this season.
In SNE we are above normal in most places for now, thanks to our November snow, but already behind much of VA and NC thanks to this latest southeast storm.
Except for Logan at 0.1 inch…beyond embarrassing to say the least.
Why is it embarrassing? It’s just weather. π This is not the first time and it is far from the last that we’ll have an odd snowfall distribution early in the season. With Logan surrounded by warm water when that November storm happened, it makes perfect sense.
Mark,
Do you have any snow maps from the Euro. I had to cancel my service, so all I can
see are the silly maps from Tropical tid bits, which are mostly useless. thanks
In other words, does this get close enough for any action?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2018121112/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png
No, the low tracks well out to sea and the precip shield stays off shore with the northern fringe maybe 50-75 miles south of Nantucket.
The Euro does look like it is trying to conjure something up at hour 240 (12/21). Clipper diving down from Canada with some troughing in the northeast and some coastal redevelopment. Might end up too late (and too warm) for us though.
Thanks Mark.
Agree, perhaps something brewing in 10 days. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Thanks TK !
Here’s the 12z Euro run total snowmap for the United States:
https://i.postimg.cc/WbMvx7bH/Capture.png
Pretty paltry, unless you live in British Columbia where the Euro is projecting widespread 110-130″ of snow in the next 10 days π
Yup. Fantastic. Couldn’t be better.
Some where from the 20th on through the 28 period, I feel like we get winter weather some where in SNE. Look for a storm to pop up on the models around within 4 days before the day it happens.
CPC pulled a 180, having been insisting on above normal precip in the 6-10 and 8-15 the last few days, only to change the 6-10 (a period they had been forecasting wet) to below normal today. They should be backing off a tad on the magnitude of their mild forecast as well.
The chances of a white Xmas slimmer I believe
They were never above climatology and they are probably near or slightly below climatology at the moment.
People are reading too much into the medium range models, however, that I have warned will be very erratic for some time. That time continues.
Text forecast for mount BakerWashington. They are getting more snow in 4 days than boston recorded in 2015. Entertainment to look at
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-121.80430023930968&lat=48.76595324378684#.XBB9x8lOnqA
I thought, perhaps, I might find a few flurries on my car top this morning, as it seems there were some radar echoes over Marshfield last night, but no. We’ll keep an eye out if we get brushed by any ocean effect activity today.
New post!