Wednesday Forecast

71 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Broad low pressure offshore and high pressure to the north will combine to keep it cold and becoming a little more blustery today along with the risk of some ocean-effect snow showers favoring Cape Cod. Although high pressure takes more control as it sinks southward from eastern Canada Thursday, the remains of a disturbance from the west may bring some cloudiness in at times but no threat of precipitation. By Friday the high will shift offshore and low pressure approaches from the west, bringing a modest warm-up and a chance of rain Friday night into the start of the weekend. the original parent low of this system which will have hung back south of the Great Lakes will likely pass south of the region on Sunday. It could be close enough for some additional wet weather along the South Coast but for now expecting it to stay to the south.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Possible snow showers east coastal areas, favoring MA South Shore and Cape Cod where minor accumulation may occur. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 12-18. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 39s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)
offshore low pressure will bring Gusty winds some cloudiness and the chance of snow showers December 17. Fair, chilly December 18. Slightly milder and watching a disturbance of some kind for a rain/snow shower risk around the middle of the period before cold air returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Near to above normal temperature though not excessively mild, with a couple of opportunities of precipitation events.

71 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Thank you.
      Actually, it did not cheer me up, but added to my miserable mood.

      2 things I take from this:

      1. Some idiot is advertising a massive Christmas snowstorm! ha ha ha hardy har har. 😀 😀 😀
      2. Some one posted about DEW – Directed Energy Weapons and theorized that the California fires were DEW initiated. Most interesting.

      1. oh dear – sorry – I didn’t read the comments. I am getting better at tuning them out. I figure it is that or I toss my monitor across the room.

        I did think the forecast was amusing.

  8. Still plenty of time for things to change(as far as getting a White Christmas) as the pattern evolves. Both versions of the GFS have some energy in the area around Christmas, albeit with very different configurations. I just moved to North Reading from Groveland over the Summer, so I’ll be joining Mel with reporting for that area. Think Snow…….

    5. Just had a co-worker who hiked that last month. It took them 7 days going up the primary hiking route. Very fascinating to think that this mountain is so close to the equator yet you have an arctic climate near the top. You truly pass through several different climates on your journey from base to summit.

  13. Need that low at Christmas on the 12z GFS to track a little further southeast otherwise rainorama as it stands now. Plenty of time for that to change.

  14. Thanks TK !

    Interesting to note …. 7 to 10 days ago, this weekend’s system was projected to be well to our west and in the last 5 days, the models have corrected to what is really going to happen, which is to mostly suppress it to our south.

  15. We had about 32 flurries around 8:30am this morning.

    I know because my whole first class lost complete focus, as 10 students announced, “its snowing”

    I did the scrooge thing and shut the shades 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    6th grade math vs snow what could be more important ??? 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I have to laugh, Tom. Your math class DID count 32 flurries, so they were focused and used their math skills in observing the weather!!!! 🙂

  16. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · Dec 11
    IMO low sea #ice in the Barents-Kara Seas is the gift that keeps on giving. It has anchored #blocking/high pressure across northwest Eurasia that favors active vertical energy transfer that has continuously perturbed and now warming the #PolarVortex both November & December.

    Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · Dec 11
    And this is important because when the #polarvortex is perturbed the probability of severe winter weather increases in the Eastern US, Europe and East Asia.

  17. John Homenuk Retweeted Anthony Masiello

    Another great thread from Anthony, highlighting the pattern evolution over the next two weeks. A brief hiatus in winter storm threats ahead – only to be marked by a stout return after Christmas.

    This is the thread he is referring to:
    https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1072209317171027973

    It would appear they are on board with Judah that things should be getting more interesting on the winter weather front after Christmas.

    1. From my experience, that evolution is marginal at best. Of course we are still looking at depiction that changes daily as models remain in crisis mode.

    1. As long as it misses Christmas and Christmas Eve. I will take snow any day of the year – even mid summer – but too many families cannot be together if there is a major storm on the 24th or 25th. Small Christmas show, however, is lovely!! I figure maybe it’s ok to be picky 2 out of 365 days.

  21. Need that area of cold western parts NY eastern Canada to get into SNE otherwise not looking at snow unless the storm could manufacture its own cold air.

    1. Since this weekend system now looks nothing like it what was projected to be a week ago at hr 216, Its more than likely future southern stream systems will end up further suppressed until we get a temporary pattern change.

  24. Just a friendly reminder that all models remain pieces of shit for the time-being. 🙂

    Also, the forecast I posted today was as much of yesterday’s carried over as I could. My laptop refused to boot up after a restart attempt this morning, telling me I had no operating system. Turns out it decided to try to use something that has been plugged into it for a month as the operating system. Bizarro, since it’s ignored this thing on reboots about 15 times until today. Unplugged it. Rebooted fine, but that was later, after I updated the blog via Voice Text feature from my kitchen counter using my phone will making coffee. Do what you gotta do… 😛

    1. Thanks for the heads up. With the divergence in model outcomes, it was
      kind of apparent anyway. 😀 😀

      I am not expecting much, but hold out some hope.

  25. Here’s an example of model disagreement. Granted, this is hour 384, but it illustrates my point, yet again.

    12z GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018121212&fh=384

    12z FV3-GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018121212&fh=384

    This is like a couple having an argument or a political debate, weather-model style. “I say trough!” “I say ridge!”

      1. That’s all I’ve been doing, and using whatever intuition I have about pattern evolution and past experience to help me with my 6-10 & 11-15 day segments.

  26. I listen and follow Rob Gilman each day on WATD. He is one of the best.
    This morning, I heard him use the expression, “Last night, the South Shore got enough snow to track a cat.”

    Love it!

    2. I may have mentioned this before, but in October 1990, I interviewed with him for a possible radio job that ended up not materializing at the time, though it’s ok because a great opportunity came along shortly thereafter.

      2. I didn’t know if Rob Gilman was still alive let alone still on the air. Nice that he is still doing weather. 🙂

        1. Just as well you didn’t get that radio gig TK. These days weather broadcasts on commercial radio is IMO awful, other than WBZ 1030 AccuWeather daily forecasts.

          Joe Zona was another old favorite as well. 🙂

        2. Heard him this 95.9 WATD Marshfield station . I would like to know his age as he was on when I was a kid in Marshfield.

      1. I was in a funk last night. I am not feeling Christmas and I know part but not all of the reason so I turned off the TV, put my devices away and turned on music on my favorite Christmas pandora station with just Christmas lights on. The first song that played was new to me…but clearly not a new song. My spirits lifted. I suspect you know the song and would bet your mom does also

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IMYDSHfRumo

          1. That warms my heart. Reminded me of Mac in the same way. I have no idea how I was not familiar with it. Or maybe it was just time that I really understood the meaning

    3. Is it that we will see significant snow in the very near future? That would change mine as well! Glad to hear about the good news!

  28. This is exceedingly short notice but…

    INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION PASS VISIBLE THIS EVENING…

    A string of visible passes continues Wednesday evening with the station visible from the southeastern New England sky for 6 minutes, 5:35PM to 5:41PM, appearing low in the west northwest sky (to the right of where the sun set) and moving across the southwestern sky about half way between horizon and overhead (43 degrees elevation). It will disappear from view just above the south southeast horizon.

    Some clouds are moving in from the southwest but they should not be thick enough to obscure the view in most of the area.

    There is another pass tomorrow and I’ll try to remember to include the info in the actual blog post in the morning. 🙂

  29. Looking at the models do not help my mood either, especially after the stupid gre’s, grrrr. I was hoping to see snow lol

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