Friday Forecast

66 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
A reprieve from the cold begins today and lasts through the weekend. Dry weather continues today as high pressure drifts offshore. Two low pressure systems will pass south of the region this weekend, the first far enough south so that only the South Coast may see a touch of rain early Saturday, and the second making a closer pass and bringing more wet weather a little further north but with the greatest chance later Sunday of this occurring near and south of I-90. Precipitation in higher elevations may be mixed or snow for a while if it gets far enough north as colder air will be filtering in. By Monday, the second low will be offshore and intensifying to the east of the region and may produce a few rain/snow showers but the bigger impact will be wind and somewhat colder air. Expect a breezy and chilly but dry day December 18 between that offshore storm, slowly moving away, and high pressure moving in from the west.
TODAY: Mostly sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 39-45. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Risk of light rain overnight South Coast. Lows 35-41. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning, favoring the South Coast. Partial sun midday and afternoon especially north. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely South Coast by afternoon, may spread to the I-90 corridor late day with some mix possible higher elevations. Highs 37-43 but may fall somewhat later in the day. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty South Coast region.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/snow showers possible and cannot rule out a period of accumulating snow for parts of the region. Windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s to start then may fall to the 20s later.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
High pressure will bring fair and tranquil weather December 19. A weak low pressure system from the west will bring a risk of rain showers late December 20 as it is a bit milder and a risk of rain/snow showers as colder air arrives December 21. A disturbance may bring a little snow/mix to the region sometime over the December 22-23 weekend with temperatures close to seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Low confidence based on uncertain timing of systems but leaning mainly dry and seasonably chilly to start the period then a risk of one or two bouts of unsettled weather later in the period.

66 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. Indeed it’s been looking that way for awhile now . You’ll get your snow just a matter of time .

      1. Actually it hasn’t. Nothing has been even close to set in stone.

        One example: just a few days ago the rain event that was progged as a Great Lakes low is actually going to miss us to the south.

        Today I’m just playing it conservative.

        1. re: Lakes cutter.

          That is one excellent, yet glaring example of just
          how lost the computer models have been. Another, of course, is the large divergence in outcomes model to model and even within runs of the same model.

          When I see prospects don’t look good, it is simply based on what the latest model runs show. We all know OR “should” know that is always subject to change.

          As Eric has been saying quite often lately:
          “The atmospheric cards can shuffle”.
          The is a great way to put it.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Saw two brilliant meteors as I walked past the window at 6:00 am. Mama – I wondered if maybe you were up early enough for your son to see them?

  4. What an absolutely stellar day!!

    I have worn my heavy coat only twice so far this season. The last several “frosty” mornings this week were worthy of only a light weight jacket. This past week
    may have been “below” average, but in my mind NOT cold at all. These mornings
    haven’t even felt cold to me. Ya I know, I am strange. 😀

    1. Then we can be strange together. I am so enjoying this weather and have yet to wear more than a long sleeved tee or a sweatshirt on its own. Last night my station said 28 degrees but it actually felt quite comfortable on the deck for close to 30 minutes with just a light sweatshirt over the tee.

  5. I’m actually watching a pattern than can drop several inches of snow here if things come together just so. Sometime in the Dec 22-24 window.

    2. Keep those positive vibes. Don’t need a blockbuster as a couple of inches will
      do if close enough to Christmas. 😀

      1. I’m hoping it’s not into Christmas Day. Cleanup is tough when you are expecting a house full of people like last year.

        1. I know everyone would like a white Christmas and I would as well…..please just not a storm large enough to keep families apart.

  12. As our failed warm-up leaves us with near to below normal temps overall into next week we will indeed have a couple of opportunities to put down at least some snow cover in at least parts of the region. Based on current timing early Monday is the next chance. I mentioned another period of time for late next week and that’s all I will say for now as it is too far away and we continue to see a lot of model variability based on their typical reactions to this type of split flow pattern.

    1. What happend to the warm up?? Not that i wanted it. Various outlets had it a sure thing lasting atleast a week

  13. Definitely looks like we could be heading into a potential interesting holiday week with 2 to 3 shots at winter weather in the 12/22-12/30 period. The GFS, FV3 and CMC differ on the exact solutions but they all show threats in that time window.

    1. Yep, 12z Euro has no accumulating snow Sun night into Monday and the 12/22- 12/23 storm is an inside runner.

      I do not expect this will be the final solution. The Euro earlier this week had the second low this weekend passing thru the Carolinas and harmlessly out to sea. It appears that the GFS solution is ultimately what is going to verify.

      1. Agree. That is not likely the final solution.
        Just interesting to continually see model divergence.
        One would think that each model solution would be a little closer to each other. No one would expect an exact match, but the divergence is striking.

        We shall see.

        My gut says Sunday night into Monday morning will whiten
        the ground in many areas. I think the atmosphere turns colder faster than the Euro is depicting. I’ll watch the evolution of this one very carefully. 😀

  17. Remember this was suppose to be a cutter and the big time torch that was being talked about on twitter. Far from a final solution with the storm threat next weekend.

  18. Hmmm,

    This is getting interestinger and interestinger!

    18Z NAM says let it SNOW!

    Kuchera Snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018121418/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Surface

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018121418/060/refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2018121418/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_44.png

    10:1 Snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018121418/084/sn10_acc.us_ne.png

  19. 42 and quite comfortable on deck with a light sweatshirt over a tee. I am convinced rhe clouds are a blanket for the earth. I had to turn the heater off It got too warm.

    2. One of the first things I learned in weather was how clouds act as a blanket. It was a big thing that Don Kent used to talk about in my early days of watching weather on TV. 🙂

      2. I thought that Don Kent was great. Hell of a nice guy to boot.

        I got to have a nice little chat with him when I was 17 years old as he came to our school one evening to give a talk and present a film and questions and answers. I asked him about coastal redevelopments. After the presentation, I chatted with him and helped bring his equipment out to his car. He gave me excellent
        career advice. He said to study Math and Physics at the under graduate level and then meteorology in graduate school.

        Well 1 out of 2 ain’t bad. Math and Physics I did, meteorology
        fell by the wayside. Oh well, life has its twists and turns.

  20. This evening Eric indirectly mentioned dynamic cooling possible overnight Sunday/early Monday if precip comes down hard enough, maybe even down to the coastline (Boston).

    A last minute Christmas miracle perhaps? 🙂

    1. Hmmm, I wonder where we heard that before. 😀

      I am waiting on the 0Z NAM to see if it stays the course or deviates.

      1. It wouldn’t be last minute unless it was occurring about 1 week later, as this Monday is only December 17 and that snow won’t remain through the end of next week.

  21. Boston Buoy water temperature is up this evening after a mild day and it up
    to 46.2 Degrees. Nearly 1 degree above the average of 45.4

    1. If bored….go outside. It is a spectacular night. The trees are frozen enough to make the sound of wood chimes in the wind rather than the rustling of the leaves. Just wow.

Comments are closed.