Saturday Forecast

60 Comments

2:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)
A double-barrel low pressure area will impact the region to varying degrees this weekend, the first passing south of the region today. A little very light rain passed through parts of the region overnight but during the day today most of the rain will be right along or just offshore of the South Coast. The second low will get a little closer later Sunday and intensify as it passes southeast of Cape Cod early Monday. This puts the region into a better position to get rain and snow, and where snow occurs some accumulation may take place. See below for preliminary numbers. As the second low pulls away and intensifies, it will pull down a batch of cold air which will be accompanied by gusty winds by a return to dry weather through Tuesday. As high pressure moves overhead it will remain cold but be more tranquil Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with a risk of some light rain near the South Coast morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind light E to N.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain develops south to north. Highs 37-43. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially Cape Cod.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely South Coast and southeastern MA, rain/mix/snow changing to mostly snow elsewhere. Lows 27-35, coldest north and west. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY: Cloudy morning with rain possibly ending as mix southeastern MA and RI with no snow accumulation expected, snow/mix ending after accumulation of a coating to 1 inch elsewhere except 1-2 inches higher elevations central MA to southwestern NH. Partly sunny afternoon with a passing snow shower possible. Highs 35-41. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 0s to lower 10s interior, lower to middle 10s coast. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)
Milder December 20 into December 21 with a risk of rain showers. Colder during the December 22-24 period with at least one shot at mix/snow from passing disturbances in the polar jet stream.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)
Disturbances bring chances of precipitation around December 26 and December 29 with temperatures near to slightly above normal for this period. This forecast is low confidence and intentionally left vague at this time.

60 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK.

    My oldest who is not a fan of cold said when she was at the barn yesterday for a ride that it felt like early spring.

    1. It’s interesting how relative weather is. We’ve been cold, so yesterday’s temperature that was only about 2 or 3 above the seasonal average for the date felt like a larger departure.

      1. It makes me laugh when I go out on the deck late in the evening and have to shut the heater off because I’m getting too warm….and it’s only 42 degrees. Our bodies have a wonderful abi,it’s to adapt. From me, that isn’t a surprise. From my oldest who thinks it should be 100 hot and humid, it was a shock 🙂

    1. Hi Tom

      I come over a hill in Uxbridge when I return from food shopping. I can see well into Sutton and was amazed at the thick fog….maybe more like very low clouds….in the distant valleys. It was really cool.

    1. 12z run looks somewhat interesting. we shall see. likely no snow for coast, but well inland may see some.

    2. Don’t count it out on 1 or 2 runs.

      Last night I saw a TV met change his forecast from one half hour to the next regarding tomorrow’s rain arrival time by about 6 hours based on ONE model run.

  6. Thanks TK. The modeling of this current storm system has been unbelievably bad. The ECMWF did sniff something out a good 7-10 days ago, but since then it has gone from being modeled as a powerhouse Lakes Cutter to a weak, strung out low to our south with an attempt at secondary coastal development. Goes to show that Lakes cutters/inside runners can fail to materialize or shift their tracks just as much as coastal storms. Unfortunately if you’re looking for snow, enough Pacific air has flooded the CONUS that even with a low passing south, it’s still too warm for snow outside of maybe the high terrain, where some snow and ice is possible. Still not nearly as warm as originally modeled. Now I’m interested to see if the storm for late next week, currently modeled very similar to how this one originally was, meets a similar fate.

    1. We will definitely see plenty more changes in modeling of that system too. Sometimes I can’t decide, as a forecaster, if that’s more frustrating or more fun. 😛

  8. The Pacific invasion may go on for a while as we are in what I like to call the benign region of the split flow. We get glances of cold air, such as what’s coming Tuesday, and no big long-lasting warm-ups either or warm-ups to the degree of December 2015. Things can happen too, but we usually won’t know about them until shortly before. It’s like playing paintball in a pitch black room with the AC and heat on at the same time. 😛

  11. It’s like playing paintball in a pitch black room with the AC and heat on at the same time.

    “Instant Classic WHW!” Thanks, I needed a laugh this AM.

  13. Hmmm
    12Z FV3-GFS shows 925 and 850 mb temps below freezing from 6 or 7 PM Sunday overnight.

    This still could get interesting.

    1. Probably not, as it needs to be measurable precipitation.
      Not sure what it was at Logan, but it was not enough to trip the
      rain gauge here at my house in JP.

  17. SSK, well to state the obvious….

    I stand corrected on NO 50s this weekend! I am sitting at 55 degrees here in
    a virtual torch! YIKES!

    2. It was a fantastic day out on the field old salty hooded sweatshirt. Got 3 jobs done today so rest tomorrow.

  18. 12Z Euro surface with precip and simulated radar for 6Z Monday AM.

    The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models

        1. Daughters horses were at what was then clay brook equestrian center down the street in the early 90s. It was when the original,house there was torn down. The kids used to ride their horses though the area but there was something in behind that made all of the horses,..even the most bomb proof…nervous. Not sure what the story was but there was one as I recall. I just looked and see Betania is a spiritual area. I think that is what was needed

          1. Vicki,

            Betania 2 is a spiritual retreat center that was formed by Sister Margaret Sims and confirmed by mystic Maria Esperanza from Venezuela. The first Betania is in Venezuela where many miracles have occurred.

            It was on October 12, 2003, the Feast of Our Lady of Pilar, that a spiritual life center was dedicated by then Archbishop Sean O’Malley on 109 acres of land in Medway, MA. The facility became a reality as a result of SIster Margaret Catherine SIms, CSJ receiving direction from God on January 6, 1993 to build a spiritual life center. This direction from God was confirmed by Maria Esperanza and the property became known as Betania II.

            The Property has continued to be developed with onsite lodging known as Sts Francis & Clare Retreat House, dedicated in October 2011. In addtion to the spiritual life center and onsite lodging, this sacred space provides several mediation areas and walking paths among the pines. You will find outdoor Stations of the Cross, Our Lady’s Grotto along side a beautiful brook setting as well as other areas equipped with statues and gardens for mediation and relaxation. In addition, Our Lady’s Chapel is open daily, Monday through Friday, from 9 am – 5 pm, for Eucharistic Adoration.

            All are welcome to walk the grounds and spend some time with Our Lord in the Chapel

            https://betaniaii.org

            1. Thank you. Whatever was is clearly no longer. This is awesome. And coincidentally I believe the owner of the barn where we kept our daughters horses after Claybrook in medway lives at the lodging facility. It comes full circle

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