17 thoughts on “Quick Update”

1. My early estimates for this winter!

   Looking over a the 18z and 00z runs of the GFS, we may be in for a very early start to winter. Summer 2011 looks to be in the books after this week.
   First wide spread frost could occur around the 15th of September away from the coast.
   First snow flakes late October
   First measurable snow mid November.
   Snowfall for Boston 65″-85″
   Coldest periods December-January(does not mean we won’t have cold spells and snowstorms in February and March)

   1. I am going to go into why I don’t buy the GFS scenario later… I think we may end up with above normal temps for Autumn overall.

      1. TK, do you agree with those high snow totals?

         1. Yes, at the moment, I do. Haven’t issued my official winter outlook so as is typical for a met, there is time to tweak. 😉

2. Is it me or does the satellite loop below that I just looked at shows Katia moving just a bit west of north? When is she supposed to start veering east?

   http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.htm

   1. Wobble. She will make a very sharp turn soon..trust me. 🙂

      1. Thanks, TK.

3. Just checked to make sure the link works – sorry, doesn’t seem to work once I posted.

4. Anyone else feel as miserable as I. This weather is insane!

   1. I do, too, Old Salty. I could use some sunshine and blue skies.

5. Rainshine,

   This ought to do the trick for you:

   http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=JUA&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20110908&endTime=-1&duration=12

   TK, curious. What will steer this thing? 300MB winds, 200MB winds.
   They all take a turn more Westerly starting at about 30 hours from 12Z this morning.
   Is that what you mean? Thanks

   1. Thanks, Old Salty.

   2. Best steering currents are usually around 500mb for such a system.

6. I hope we have the amounts of snow some people on the blog are predicting. I hope my gut is wrong but I don’t see snowfall like last winter. I think it will be slightly above normal but no more than 50 inches.

7. I hope it is lower JJ. snow storms cause problems for me.

8. It is not uncommon to have 2 winters in a row with large snowfall totals.

   The blog is updated!

9. To me watch the temperatures in October and November. If they are colder than normal that tends to lead to a colder and snowier winter. If they are mild we tend to have less snow and less cold.

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