Wednesday Forecast

87 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)
Christmas Day may be over but the Christmas season goes on, with many folks on mini work vacations and still doing tours of lights displays, etc. during the course of the week between Christmas Day and New Year’s Day, so the weather remains important for planning such things. During this 5-day period there are a couple of events that may have some impact on plans. After a couple dry and seasonably cold midweek days, a low pressure area will move rapidly from the Upper Midwest to southeastern Canada Friday through early Saturday. Enough cold air at the onset of this system early Friday should allow a start as snow/sleet for at least northern and interior areas of southeastern New England, but warmer air advancing will mean that it turns out as rain for the balance of the system. A cold front will come through during Saturday, and similar to the Saturday before it, expect a day of drying weather and a mild start with a colder finish. This sets up the possibility of some snow on Sunday, with cold air in place, depending on the track of a clipper low pressure system.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 11-18. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet developing pre-dawn, except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 22-28 north, 28-34 south. Wind light N to E.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow and sleet changing to rain morning-midday. Rain showers likely afternoon-evening. Snow/sleet accumulation of a coating to 2 inches except little or no accumulation South Coast. Highs 40-46 occurring late-day. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Chance of a rain shower morning. Chance of a snow shower late-day. Temperatures rise to lower 50s early then fall through the 40s during the day, 30s early evening, into the 20s late evening.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas. Temperatures steady in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
A dry December 31 will be followed by a pattern of unsettled weather that favors rain initially and possibly mix/snow toward the end during the first few days of 2019.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)
A couple systems may bring light precipitation around January 6 and 8 otherwise overall dry weather with temperatures near to below normal.

87 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK! This morning the tv mets are no longer even hinting at the possibility of snow for Sunday. Did the potential system literally go POOF on all the models?

    1. Philip, when I looked over things earlier this morning, I found the models to be all over the place. Perhaps mets too chicken to stick their necks out. Go with TK. if he says there is a chance of snow Sunday, then there is.

  4. Thanks, TK, and Good Morning!
    I hope everyone had a special day yesterday with family and friends!

    Happy Boxing Day!

  7. Boston Harbor Buoy water temp. has dropped below 45 degrees to 44.6.

    It was below 45 briefly ten days or two weeks ago. It is a bit of a hobby of mine to monitor this.

  10. I give today an 11 rating. What a beautiful Winter’s day. Couldn’t be better for
    this date (unless, of course, it was snowing. :D)

  11. Wonder what the 12Z model suite will show. Very confusing signals with last night’s and the over night runs. I don’t know what to expect.

  13. If the dry pattern verifies for the winter, then I would say that the 00z GFS run may be one of its best runs in a long time.

    Southern stream events miss to our south and the northern stream impulses are fairly moisture starved and deliver occasional cold shots.

  14. Hey all, sorry if I appeared rather grouchy/snarky lately. It has been a most stressful period of months and I let it get to me. I have a New Year’s resolution to be much better in that regard (starting today!). 😀 Plus the stressful situation has been resolved (I hope). We shall see.

    I will try not to be so negative. Even my wife calls me Debbie Downer. Have to work on this.

    But no matter what, I still have a very intense interest in the weather….

      1. Thanks Tom, but seriously I have been waaaaay too negative
        at times and that can take away from the blog. And for that,
        I am truly sorry.

  20. With these deep blue skies that we’ve been having, a deep 6-12 inch covering would really have made this Christmas season…complete. I would settle for a 1-3/2-4 inch.

    I just feel with us just being in the northern hemisphere, we should be having white Christmases much more often than a lousy 1 in 4 chance.

    1. Florida’s in the northern hemisphere too. 😉

      It has to do with location, but more specifically than just half the world. 🙂

  22. Happy Holidays to everyone and thanks TK!

    I’m in Upstate NY for the remainder of the holiday week. It’s been cloudy and cold here in Amsterdam today with occasional flurries. Ground is white though not enough to cover the blades of grass. Planning on going to Gore skiing this weekend so hoping that Friday storm does minimal damage. Mix changing to rain expected here as well with that system.

      1. I wouldn’t mind trying Whiteface if the conditions look better. I haven’t been there in years. Gore is easy as it is only an hour and 15 min north of here while Whiteface is another hour drive further north. Might be a game time decision.

  23. Boston College’s bowl game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas is currently in a lightning delay with severe weather in the Dallas area.

  25. 12z Euro and CMC both look rainy for the New Years system, however the Euro does follow that up with a coastal storm on 1/3-1/4 that delivers 3-6″ across much of SNE with the highest amounts south coast.

    1. Yup, they surely do. Still a couple of days, so we shall see.
      Funny how systems either want to be inside runners/cutters or
      suppressed and a miss. Can’t seem to get that magical combination
      of parameters.

      Sort of like Goldilocks and the 3 bears, no???

      Too inside, too outside, but no in the middle.

    2. This is the scenario I’ve been envisioning. 2 main systems, a wet one and then a white one. Neither major, but enough to result in an unsettled stretch to start 2019.

  26. With that lightning in the Dallas area the bowl game between Boston College and Boise State been in a weather delay for now over two hours.

    1. Update: Game’s been cancelled!

      The First Responder Bowl between No. 25 Boise State and Boston College was canceled Wednesday due to severe weather in the area.

      The game played at The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas, got underway Wednesday afternoon but was put into a weather delay with Boston College leading 7-0 with 5:08 in the first quarter. Lightning in the area caused the game to be delayed, and after a waiting period of nearly 90 minutes, officials got together and decided to cancel the game after peering at the local forecast. Thunderstorms and wind are expected to continue throughout the day and into the early morning hours, which ultimately made it impossible to attempt to get the postseason game in.

      Even though Boston College led 7-0 at the time of the delay, the game was officially ruled a no contest, meaning neither team will be considered the winner or the loser, and any stats accumulated in the game do not count. The no contest ruling and subsequent explanation should answer any questions some bettors may have.

      Boise State finishes its 2018 season with a record of 10-3, and came within one win of capturing the Mountain West championship, losing to Fresno State in the title game. Boston College finishes its season at 7-5.

      1. I don’t believe in NCAA football history has a postseason bowl game ever been cancelled, or even cut short. Too bad given BC was leading and looking good on both sides of the ball up until the delay.

          1. I was going crazy looking for the game! Googled Boston College football, found out it was in a delay and, subsequently, outright canceled.

            You’re right, Philip, there aren’t many games that are canceled and not rescheduled.

            The first one that comes to mind was a tornado that hit the Georgia Dome during the SEC men’s basketball tourney. I believe the games and tourney resumed the following days at Georgia Tech.

  27. JP Dave don’t apologize for your mood. If you are not breaking the blog rules you are allowed to snark all you want. 😛 I do it enough! 😉

    BTW I am leaning a little more toward the Sunday threat being too far south. This is not a surprise to me. I figured 50/50 chance at BEST when I wrote the blog overnight. Preview of the cold/dry pattern that I think will be the dominant one as we go through the winter. We do still have some wiggling around of the pattern to get it there, however. And yes, several of the “hits” will very likely be Lakes Cutters because of the phasing that occurs too far west when the streams do link up. It’s there and too far south and east more than right where a snow lover would want to see it. That’s going to be the story of winter 2018-2019. But that doesn’t mean there can’t be an exception or 2 to the rule. 😉

    1. Could this season end up in the top 5 least if not #1? 🙁

      1. 0.2” (2018-19) *to date
      2. 9.0” (1936-37)
      3. 9.3” (2011-12)
      4. 10.3” (1972-73)
      5. 12.7” (1979-80)

    2. JPD i had missed your post earlier today. I second TK. Not sure what is in the air or water or both, but it seems stress was around in full measure leading up to these holidays for many. I was having uncharacteristic trouble finding Christmas. But it arrived and it was spectacular and I hope that is the turning point for everyone. I’ll keep positive thoughts that stress remains at bay for you.

  28. Eight years ago at this time, we were settling in for The Boxing Day Blizzard. Taunton totaled 17.3″, one of the top December storms of all time.

  29. At least this year ski areas have been able to make snow, rather natural snow but cold and dry beats warm and wet

  30. JPD – The way things are going, we may very well be asking “What is a January/February snow storm?” as well. 😉

  31. Boxing Day Blizzard, 2010

    Random reports

    Taunton 17.3
    Lynn 18.5
    Winchester 17.3
    Woburn 15.0
    Canton 19.0
    Blue Hill 16.8
    Brockton 16.0
    South Boston 19.0
    Logan 18.5
    Worcester 12.5

    Source: NWS-BOX website: Past Weather Events

      2. I remember all too well–I closed on a house December 22 and the house I was selling didn’t close until December 28–I owned both houses for that storm and was responsible for clearing both driveways in advance of the walkthrough. In retrospect–I don’t know why I didn’t just hire someone to plow…young and foolish I guess.

  32. What I find so puzzling is that after our prolific snows in 2015 it was immediately followed by severe drought for months on end but now we are in a “cold & dry” pattern not allowing snows from the south, and yet will likely come out way ahead of precipitation for the upcoming spring season.

    1. I already explained this. The prolific snow of 2015 was actually achieved with only near average precipitation overall. We had already been heading into drought with long term deficit which started in 2013. The snow that fell during that stretch did not melt, but sublimated (evaporated). It added nothing to our water supply. Perfect set-up to catapult us right into drought. Remember how DRY and cold late March and early April 2015 were?

  34. I remember the Boxing Day blizzard well, and that opened the floodgates to what was a pretty wild month-plus stretch of snow after that, a slightly less extreme version of the 2015 snow blitz. That 2010-2011 winter was a great one. I was pretty well committed to pursuing a meteorology career by then but that winter helped push me along a little further.

    Of course, after that action packed stretch in mid-winter 2011, we didn’t really have any snow at all until February 2013!

  35. Hmmmm I went back on the blog to dec 2010 to see who got what and comments are off. Is that an archive thing Tk?

    1. The comments shut off on every post after I think 2 days. It’s a setting. But you should be able to read any comments. There were very few people commenting in December 2010. The first day of my blog was December 26 2010. I think I had a half dozen comments in the first few posts, total. 😉

      1. Most of us were still on that awful, toxic WBZ weather blog and Coastal brought the remaining bloggers (myself included) aboard for the New Year 2011, correct? 🙂

        2. Yes that is how it worked. The WBZ blog is still there but the comments are essentially non-existent now.

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