Thursday Forecast

82 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)
We’re down to 5 days left of 2018, and they will present a set of changes in the weather typical of the region we live in. It starts out with a tranquil day today as high pressure overhead slides off to the east. Low pressure traveling through the Midwest will track north of England by late Friday, dragging a warm front across the region. The precipitation with this front will fall mainly as rain, although it will likely start as a period of snow and some sleet north and west of Boston where a minor accumulation is possible especially in higher elevations. The cold front from this system will cross the region early Saturday with no more than a rain shower and a mild start to the day will then be followed by falling temperatures, a gusty breeze, and perhaps a snow shower to end the day as a trough passes by. A cold Canadian high pressure area will build in for Sunday, which now looks like a dry day with any weak low passing well to the south. By the time we get to the final day of 2018, we’ll have another low pressure area approaching from the southwest, spreading cloudiness into the region. It remains to be seen if any precipitation will arrive before the clock strikes midnight, but if it did it would likely be snow. With this being a few days away, this is definitely not a high confidence forecast at this point, just something to keep an eye on.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet north and west of Boston, mix/rain elsewhere, developing pre-dawn, with a minor accumulation of 1 inch or less possible in areas that get snow. Lows 22-28 north, 28-34 south during the evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind light N to E.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning and midday. Rain tapering off late day when clouds may break. Highs 47-54 occurring late day. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to S by late in the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures fall back slightly into the 40s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible early. A passing snow shower possible late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Risk of snow late at night. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)
An unsettled start to 2019 with a risk of mix to rain January 1 into January 2 then a risk of mix to snow January 3 into January 4, with fair and colder weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)
A colder and overall drier pattern but a risk of snow showers about every other day from passing polar jet stream disturbances.

82 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. The next 10 days on the Euro does not look very favorable for snow.
      Oh well, such is the variability of New England weather. ๐Ÿ˜€
      Not much we can do about it except try to enjoy whatever comes our way.

        1. Well, that is one of my concerns for this Winter.
          For snow lovers, not looking all that good. For others, could be a rather easy rocking chair style Winter.
          Whatever floats your boat.

  6. The system that is coming for New Year’s Day is destined to be yet another Cutter
    in a seemingly never ending series of cutters. Sure, there may be “some” front end
    snow, but mainly a rain maker. So, what else is new???

      1. My mother said she has connections to Mother Nature, I asked my mom to send in a recommendation of snowy and cold weather starting in January we will see how it works out ๐Ÿ˜›

  9. Looking ahead, it “appears” that our chances for snow rely on dying/drying up clippers
    coming through on the polar jet. We would need one of those to explode
    just South of us. Right, fat chance.

    OR we some how get the split flow to phase and actually bring something up the coast.
    I’ll believe that when I see it.

    Rather disappointing looking at the models out in the future.

    Of course, they will change, probably for the worst. ๐Ÿ˜Ž
    Time will tell all.

  10. If we continue to get these rainy spells – let’s see, there’s still Jan., Feb. and March to still get snow. But if we get mostly rain until late Feb. or March and mild weather, sun’s angle, etc. melting snow could be a problem I am guessing and on already saturated ground potential for flooding. These sunny, cold days are nice but some snow would be nice. Just wish there would be a little less wind at times. Hearing birds on some early mornings. But – we have no control of the weather, no matter what anyone says. I am under my own stresses and prob’ly this post is too long. Sorry. The sun being out is nice.

  11. Good afternoon and thanks, TK…

    After yesterday’s BC football bowl cancellation, I searched and found this interesting article on foxsports.com about sports events and weather delays I wish to share for your reading:

    https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/gallery/dangerous-weather-delays-mother-nature-natural-disasters-tornado-hurricane-earthquake-affecting-sporting-events-082611

    I’d like to add the 1978 Beanpot hockey tourney (opening round) on February 6 and and 1938 Boston Bees (Braves) playing during and the day after the Great Hurricane of 1938!!

  13. Ryan Hanrahan Retweeted Michael Ventrice

    Pretty ugly trends last 48 hours for those of us hoping for a nice pattern change to ring in 2019

    Michael Ventriceโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @MJVentrice

    ECMWF EPS stating an argument against any significant cold air for the East during the second week of January. Seems like other models have begun to trend this way too. The pain in long range forecasting continues. We’ll see if things swing back the other way.

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078296105778065408

  15. Judah Cohenโ€ @judah47 ยท 5h5 hours ago

    Amazing, the Canadian model that was the possibly the first and certainly the most aggressive with the #PolarVortex split has now completely lost it! The model confusion is pretty spectacular to watch & head scratching as there aren’t that many degrees of freedom in stratosphere

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1078290061412757505

  16. 12z models pretty unanimous on another cutter/mostly rain event for New Years Day however the 12z CMC and Euro do have some secondary redevelopment bringing the potential for a decent snow event at least to northern NH and a good portion of Maine.

    1. yes, but certainly not here. Still time, so we shall see, but in this type of pattern, we’re looking for anything, mostly in vain.

    2. Hey Mark, I am heading up to Bartlett this weekend and staying for new years. How much snow are they looking at up there?

      1. CMC has a 3-6″ snowfall overnight New Years Eve into New Years morning in the White Mountains and western Maine. Euro is a bit later with the coastal redevelopment and thus a little further north with the heavier totals.

  17. Thanks Mark for all of the discouraging information that is not the least bit
    surprising to me based on what I have seen. Not at all.

    So, now we’re looking to basically NADA until at least 1/15. Nice.

    I doubt the overall pattern is the same, but it reminds me of several years ago
    where Judah Cohen and others kept saying Stratospheric warming coming with
    attendant cold and storminess. Guess, what it NEVER materialized. Sound familar???
    Just watch and see. ๐Ÿ˜Ž

    1. I know, its like de ja vu all over again.

      By the way, love the smiley faces with sunglasses. Do you think putting one of those at the end of your rants makes you sound less Grinch-like? ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. The 12z Euro is further north with the coastal system for 1/3 and 4 than 0z and gets precip up close to the south coast. Temps here would support snow. Bears watching.

      1. Euro then follows that up with another coastal system on 1/5 that is also a miss. I would not be surprised if these systems trend closer.

  19. Since nothing fun is showing up on the weather, this is a bit of a side track from the weather but nature related. You might be hearing out cry from people that do not understand the who issue of Japan leaving the international whaling commission IWC. This is awesome news yet people are complaining about it. What this means is that Japan will no longer be able to hunt Whales outside of their National waters which means that there will be no whales killed in the entire Southern Hemisphere or in international waters. This is massive in terms of whale conservation. If people would like to know more just let me know ๐Ÿ™‚ In terms of the weather BLAH a small inch or two of snow Friday early morning, but mainly rain and seeing nothing in terms of good snow.

          1. Sadly, Brother said no snow down toward his way in Bow. Rain ate it. He had a knee replacement three months ago and wants to test the new knee!

            1. Sunapee still makes good snow Vicki– but your bro knows that. I am skiing Wachusett and Killington this winter and both are in very good shape. They have had 2-3 times the snowfall of Sunapee. Maybe your bro would have better luck cruising across to Okemo– not to far and I suspect he has privileges their as it is a sister Mt to Okemo.

              2. He said theyโ€™d just had too much rain. Iโ€™ll ask him about Okemo. Itโ€™ll give me a fun reason to give him a call tonight…not that I need a reason ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. To me it never really was, overall. But there’s always room for an anomalous transitional pattern that does something.

  22. Bobbi your ability to comment is approved. Since it was your first one I had to approve it. Sorry it took me so long to get to it today. ๐Ÿ™‚

  23. The lack of any Arctic air even attempting to encroach upon us recently has been noteworthy. December 2018 will go down as a warm-ish month around here, but a blowtorch month to our northwest in Canada. And while we may fall back towards averages after the next cutter early next week, I don’t see much bitter cold. The MJO is playing a role as well. It is stuck in the warm phases big time, and even as other indicators start arguing for a push to colder, it’s going to be a struggle to get sharp or sustained cold if the MJO remains uncooperative. Agree with TK on the drier trend, and possibly much drier especially relative to what we’ve been seeing. Another round of flood watches up here in the mid-Atlantic for tomorrow. It’s a bigger rain event here than it will be in SNE. Still less than what would normally cause significant flooding concerns, but our tolerance levels are way down given the stretch we’ve had. Anything over 1-1.5″ will push several rivers out of their banks.

  24. I do think we should watch around 1/3 for a post-frontal wave, which I think TK has said he is watching as well. That would be in the sweet spot of cold air behind the early week system where it would probably be a snow event if it occurred. The Euro is trying to show it but winding the storm up too much and making it too slow, so it misses the cold air.

  25. Thank you WX watcher.
    Congratulations on achieving your lifelong dream of becoming a meteorologist.
    All of your hard work and commitment have certainly paid off!!!!

  26. From Meteorologist John Homenuk
    Euro Weeklies are in: Colder than normal pattern really sets in across the Central/Eastern USA Week 2, and continues through Week 4. Weeks 2 and 3 are both colder than the last cycle.
    Most notably, this run shows ample poleward ridging into BC by Weeks 2-3 and a -NAO weeks 3-4.

  27. Philip Here is Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet on EURO weeklies
    First week of January doesn’t look particularly wintry/stormy but the Euro weeklies are quite wintry and stormy for the rest of January.

  28. Right now as a snow lover I will take a 2-4 3-6 inch storm. I have to remind myself since it seems so long ago I saw 9 inches of snow back on November 15th.

    1. Logan may be lucky to see 9 inches for the season which is the record for LEAST snowfall in 1936-37. To date all they have is a speck 0.2 inch. Of course the city neighborhoods have much more, relatively speaking.

      Donโ€™t get me started about climo stats at airports in general. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      1. Philip you crack me up man . We are not even a week into winter . Patience this pattern will change & you will get snow in time

        1. Well, based on TKโ€™s outlook for this winter overall, there arenโ€™t going to be a lot of opportunities. Well below normal snowfall most likely I would say. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  29. From the glass half full perspective, a cold and dry pattern is great for those who like pond hockey or just ice skating in general. The ice is smooth as glass and you donโ€™t have to spend hours cleaning off snow just for a small area to skate. Cold and dry the skates will fly. However if I had a choice Iโ€™d take a good blizzard any day.

  30. Absolutely, if your business is snow dependent then it really stings. If your in restaurants or retail it helps. I guess it just depends on what business your in. Itโ€™s all relative, because the folks who earn a paycheck plowing patronize the restaurants and purchase from local shops so itโ€™s a double edged sword.

  31. Thank you, TK.

    My sister lives in Norwich, Vermont. She once told me – well, actually several times – that November snows usually do not bode well for a snowy winter. The expression she heard from locals was “a white Thanksgiving often means a green Christmas.” Certainly, this year that was the case, unless one was in the mountains, or right up near the Canadian border. And, my sister reminded me that several times in recent years a harsh, snowy November has had no lasting effect whatsoever. More the opposite. It’s an interesting observation.

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