Sunday Forecast

43 Comments

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
A disturbance that had a little more punch than expected brings cloudiness and maybe a few flakes of snow to the region this morning then moves out this afternoon with sun returning. High pressure moves overhead during today and tonight with much lighter wind than we saw Saturday, and then this high moves offshore and allows a quick-moving low pressure area to bring a period of rain (which may start as a mix well north and west) to come through the region during New Year’s Eve, leaving us with a drying but mild New Year’s Day before colder air returns to the region for the second and third days of 2019.
After a complex day yesterday which featured rain, fog, and some icy spots as cold air was trapped near the ground over parts of southern NH and central MA, we are now drying out behind it all with a moderate westerly breeze today, though it starts mild and then gets colder during today and tonight and remains dry and cold but more tranquil for Sunday as high pressure builds in. But the changes will continue and as we get ready to change the calendar from 2018 to 2019 we’ll be dealing with the passage of another low pressure system, bringing mainly rain for New Year’s Eve, which is a little faster timing than I had been thinking previously. This quicker timing may lead to a much drier result for a good portion of New Year’s Day, which will be mild, before another batch of cold air arrives for the 2nd day of 2019.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with spotty light snow this morning. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind light N to light variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable to light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Rain arriving southwest to northeast, may start as brief mix well north and west of Boston. Lows 32-39 early then rising to the 40s overnight. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, strongest Cape Cod.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
A storm system with a combination of northern and southern jet stream energy is likely to pass through the region with a snow or mix to rain situation on January 4, exiting and followed by colder and drier weather January 5, but a disturbance may bring snow showers with continued cold air January 6 followed by dry weather January 7 and the threat of the next disturbance bringing precipitation by January 8.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Drier with near to below normal temperatures January 9-11, with the next threat of unsettled weather coming by late in the period.

43 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Barry didn’t seem very optimistic about any clearing even for the afternoon. Hope we get some.

  5. I had some heavier echoes above me here in Sturbridge. It was all virga, not a flake to be seen. I don’t quite understand why the temp and dew point not too far off from each other a 6 degree difference. It feels as if the air is moist enough. Shallow layer of dry air? But they also seem to be dissipating right over head and not making it much further east.

  6. Thanks TK.

    A lot of different things to watch this morning. We’ve got this little surprise event ongoing. Minor, but definitely under-forecast. A subtle but well-defined shortwave, it shows up on a 500mb height/vorticity map if you’re interested. Then we’ve got, after an impressively warm storm late Monday into Tuesday, what’s starting to look like a pretty interesting system for the end of this week. I think there are still some wintry outcomes on the table with that one, although a lot of ironing out needs to be done. It’s the first storm in weeks that has struck me as at least having the potential to produce snow along the I95 corridor if things go right. But far from a lock. And then we’ve got some big changes, at least on the models, for mid-January, which is looking much warmer on all the guidance this morning than it has been previously. Question is, is that a legitimate warm signal, or are the models being thrown off by all the ongoing noise? Michael Ventrice with a good note on that on Twitter this morning. All things considered, a busy week ahead as all this comes into clearer focus.

        1. I wet still Wet in SNE, but overall it was a bit colder solution and a bit more East and South.
          However, the new 12Z runs seems to think it mat be suppressed once again, so who knows.

  9. Thanks tk. A little sports aside:

    IF PATS WIN…
    …and KC loses, and LAC loses: We are the #1 seed.

    IF PATS TIE…
    …and HOU wins: We are the #3 seed.

    IF PATS LOSE…
    …and BAL loses or ties, and HOU loses, and TEN loses or ties: We are the #2 seed.
    …and BAL loses or ties, and HOU wins or ties: We are the #3 seed.
    …and BAL loses or ties, and TEN wins: We are the #3 seed.
    …and BAL wins, and HOU loses, and TEN loses: We are the #3 seed.
    …and BAL wins, and HOU loses, and TEN ties, and BAL>HOU strength of victory: We are the #3 seed.
    …and BAL wins, and HOU wins or ties: We are the #4 seed.
    …and BAL wins, and TEN wins: We are the #4 seed.
    …and BAL wins, and HOU loses, and TEN ties, and HOU>BAL strength of victory: We are the #4 seed.

    I thought people might enjoy the many permutations.

    2. In my opinion I don’t think the #1 seed will be achieved & the pats will be playing the playoffs as a road team . I do think the pats will win today & do there part but in my opinion only I do not think the two other teams both loose .

        2. If it wasn’t for the Miami loss, they could have had a meaningless game today and rested some players, maybe Brady as well.

          1. If KC is the number one seed, we will just need them to lose the divisional game and us to win our divisional game to get home field advantage.

  10. I am happy my Cowboys are already locked in to 4th seed. Play the game like a preseason game and hoping nobody gets hurt.

  11. If the patriots don’t make it to the playoffs I would cheer for the chargers, I believe their q.v. deserves to get a ring, especially since he is better than Manning

    1. It was expected that they would beat the jets big today again the problem is what they can’t control unfortunately.

      1. Not sure number 2 can be considered a problem. But then after the first quarter of the first game, some folks…..certainly never here….didn’t think they’d make it to the playoffs. 😉 😉 😉

        1. It could be a very big problem if you are the road team & hold the spot this year as being a horrendous road team .

          1. The first game will be at home where they are undefeated. Anything can happen after that and hopefully it won’t be a road game.

            We have to take one game at at at time. A lot of folks were writing them off as a two seed with the Pitt loss two weeks ago.

          2. They can win on the road. We can’t assume because their losses came on the road that they will lose as a road team in the playoffs. 1) We knew they’d lose games this year. Anyone who thought this team had a remote chance of going Anything better than 12-4 was in fantasy land. I figured 10-6. Not too far off. 2) The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. The approach taken for each game is a little more do-or-die than any regular season game. I think they can get it done on the road provided they show up in every aspect of the game.

              1. How true, North. And We sure have. They gave us one heck of a run and to me we owe them a mountain of thanks and support no matter what the outcome

        2. Agree V! 🙂

          I haven’t always loved every decision but it’s a business and not my job. My “job” as a fan is to root for the team they put on the field. 🙂

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