Monday Forecast

86 Comments

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)
The final day of 2018 has arrived. The the final sunshine of the year will be this morning and maybe first thing this afternoon for parts of the region before cloudiness thickens up ahead of a quick-moving storm system that is going to symbolize much of 2018 – wet weather. Actually this system has just enough cold air to work with that it may start as snow or a mix over interior southern NH and central to northeastern MA, and for a short time where snow occurs it may even look like it would be the start of a serious snowfall, but it will be very fleeting, as warmer air takes over both at the surface and aloft and everyone is rain by the time we flip the calendar from 2018 to 2019. So if you are going to be outside somewhere to celebrate, bring the rain gear. If you are near the coast, say, in Boston, leave the umbrellas at home and wear a rain coat as the wind will be on the gusty side this evening and tonight. When we get to the first dawn of 2019, clouds and a few rain showers may still be around as we’re immersed in mild air, but a quick drying process on an increasing westerly wind behind the system will make for quite a nice New Year’s Day overall, although the mild air that starts the day will be replace as the hours go by with much colder air, so be ready for a temperature drop. High pressure will build in with dry and cold air Wednesday. A northern stream disturbance will pass through the region Thursday morning and midday and may cause a little very light snow. Later Thursday and early Friday a piece of energy will travel well south of the region, but a lagging piece of energy from the southern jet stream will phase up with a piece of energy from the northern jet stream over the Midwest and create a storm system that arrives along with milder air, bringing a good chance of rain to the region by later on Friday. It’s possible this system is slow enough so that the entirety of Friday’s daylight is dry. Will tweak timing going forward.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 37-44. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Rain arrives evening southwest to northeast, may start as mix/snow interior southern NH and northeastern to central MA. Rain diminishes to scattered rain showers west to east overnight. Patchy fog. Temperatures rise slowly through the 40s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast evening, S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas overnight.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Mostly cloudy with a lingering rain shower possible very early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning. Temperature fall through the 40s afternoon to the upper 30s east and middle 30s west by day’s end. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Lows from the upper 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)
Rain may end as snow or snow showers during January 5. A few snow showers possible January 6. Risk of light snow or flurries later January 7 and January 8 then fair and cold January 9 as the southern jet stream retreats and the polar jet, sitting mainly north of the region, sends minor systems this way.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)
Unsettled weather is most likely during the second half of the period though at this point no major storms appear likely.

86 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Does anybody recall a tornado in MA in either 1974 or 1975, sometime in the early spring? I don’t recall anyone getting hurt or killed. I think this storm was in March. We were just married and living in Framingham and would be moving to Weymouth the following month. I don’t recall any storm warnings that day (maybe wasn’t paying attention) but it got very dark and windy – so windy that a roof blew off a house across the street from us. I looked up tornadoes in MA at that time and there was supposedly a tornado in 1974 that injured 2 and was a F3? I don’t think that was the one we experienced.

    1. According to the data I can see there was a strong tornado in Middlesex County in late September 1975 and one near Springfield in July 1974. I will have to research a bit to see if something occurred in that area.

      1. Thank you, TK. My husband says it might have been September, 1975. Maybe that was the one. And it would have to have been 1975 now that I think of it as we were married in 1974 and moved right into Framingham over a yr. before we moved to Weymouth.

      2. I believe I recall the one in 1975. I was in California and worried about my family at home. Before we left, everyone was taping windows.

    1. At 5 days in the future it’s hard to say. I’m still not even convinced that storm makes it up here at all. There’s still a scenario that can keep it south and a complete miss. Once I am 100% sure we get into it, then I can start working on the details.

        2. It’s not really showing up on the Euro but that doesn’t matter. Models are models. Forecasts are made by meteorologists. 🙂 So far, SAK, myself, and Barry agree that we may see flakes before the Saturday system ends.

  6. I heard on tv this morning that the fireworks will go off at midnight “weather permitting”. TK – Will the weather “permit” it? I heard that the heaviest rain will arrive at that time.

    1. They may very well fire them at midnight in rain. Rain does not impact the function of the launch tubes.

      Hampton Beach is doing theirs at 8PM. It will be dry at that time there.

    1. It’s a bit cold but it will be close. I wouldn’t read into it that much. No surprises coming on this one. The warm air aloft is APLENTY and will be moving in very very rapidly.

      1. I understand that for sure. Just thought that it was interesting
        that this particular model showed it starting as snow so close.

        I do not read anything into it except the remote possibility
        of some flakes before quickly going over to rain.

    1. Pretty much going as it was expected to go. 🙂 My mistake was relying on a couple snow events in the transitional pattern to give more snow than we ended up seeing for this particular month. But I’m much more confident of below normal snow for January, February, and March.

        1. Unless something changes drastically and/or all of
          the current indicators are just plain wrong, this Winter
          will Blow Chunks for SNE snow lovers. I have accepted it.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    The sky has that snow look this morning with the sun shining through the silver clouds. Just beautiful!

    1. I love that sky look. Sometimes we get that look before rain too but it is often caused by ice crystals from cirrostratus to altostratus clouds, and it’s the bright version of the classic snow sky before the thicker altostratus bring the slate grey overcast, which I also love. 🙂

    3. We had clear skies early this morning but the clouds moved in fast. The overcast here had a yellowish tone to it. Very pretty! Your sky I think looked prettier than our sky! LOL! We didn’t have any silver clouds.

    1. This is relying on cold air sticking around at the outset. Not likely to happen, but fun to look at just the same.

    2. btw,
      it is not just the HRRR, both NAMS show this feature, but not to the extent
      the HRRR does. Regular NAM shows snow almost to Boston, while 3KM NAM gets some snow to Boston, still not as much as HRRR.

  14. 12z GFS has a nice accumulating snowfall a week from Wed. I have a better chance seeing my Cowboys beat the Seahawks Saturday night then that happening.

  15. I will say this I am nervous going up against this Seattle team and our defense has looked terrible the past four games after holding the Saints to 10 points. I will look forward to TK’s playoff predictions for this weekend as he did very well with that last year as well as the weather predictions for 2019. I will be making mine as I always do on January 1st and I look forward to hearing what others on the blog think and look back at the end of the year and see if we got anything right.

  16. MJO…
    I’m starting to figure out how it being nearly neutral but weakly in its phases is impacting the weather pattern. Oh boy, this is exciting for future long range forecasting! 🙂

    1. It certainly seems to me that the MJO is overriding basically everything right now. The pattern we’ve been getting lately out of phases 4-5 and especially what it looks like we will be getting out of phases 6-7 is textbook relative to the classical composite maps. The expansive ridging over the US being modeled for the next 2 weeks makes it look like the MJO contribution is really all that matters, though that’s obviously not true. And while we may well get the drier stretch we’ve been anticipating, it now looks much more warm and dry versus cold and dry. And that is leading to a slaughter in the energy markets today with a lot of people caught off guard who were expecting a shift to colder. Natural gas prices -10%(!) today.

  17. The Patriots 2019 schedule features the NFC East.

    Home – Dallas, N.Y. Giants
    Away – Philadelphia, Washington

  18. Adding to the many end-of-the-year countdowns, here’s my local weather highlights of 2018. This is for entertainment purposes only! 🙂

    5. Early January blizzard of 2018. January 4. 16.9″
    4. Tornado Warning for Bristol County, October 24
    3. March snowstorm, March 13. 15.9″ Widespread tree damage in Middleboro. No school.
    2. Record-breaking annual rainfall. 70.50″ and still not done!!!!
    1. Wild winds and rain. Friday, March 2. 4″ of rain. 70+ mph winds. Major tree damage and power outages. Third highest tide on record.

    Feel free to add to this list!
    Happy New Year to all in the WHW family!
    Be safe! Be happy! 🙂

    1. RE: 2018

      I am suffering from CRS!! (can’t remember shit)

      The only thing I can remember is:

      Below zero weather around 1/7
      Tornadoes at Upton and Webster

  19. Things I will remember when it comes to weather 2018.
    The BOMB CYCLONE. The media came up with that name which happened in early January.
    The cold start to 2018
    Warm February
    4 Nor’easter’s in March
    Accumulating snow in April which caused the Yankees home opener to be snowed out
    4 tornadoes that happened in CT on May 15th.
    Humidity the big weather story in summer 2018
    A lot of rainfall
    Schools being dismissed early at the beginning of school year due to heat
    Mid 80s for highs on October 10th.
    New tornado record in CT with 9 this year breaking the old record of 8
    Coldest Thanksgiving on record in CT along with the top 5 snowiest with 8 inches and 10th coldest November on record

  24. Happy New Year Everyone!

    Enjoy a safe night and start 2019 with a smile and hope for a better tomorrow for someone other than ourselves.

    Weather – one well timed storm anamolus to the prevailing pattern can change the snowfall totals in an instant.

    I don’t see the stratospheric ray of fantasy that the snow blinded cling to like a trusty service dog. I do see average temp and average precipitation the next 2 weeks. (Alternating average and below average temp periods) Slighty below average temps, drier than average precipitation post 1/15 into February.

    I at the moment am ok with GFS and ECMWF in the mid-range. GFS gets jumpy with southern stream lows in the off runs and they appear and disappear like magic and the ECMWF doesn’t know what to do with southern stream energy in a split flow as it approaches the east cost, so it runs home to mommy and over amps them and brings them too far north too fast.

    From a meteorological perspective I am truly enjoying the challenge of this period when it comes to formualaing reasonable mid and longer term prognostications.

  25. Happy New Year to all, and hope you and your families the best.

    Now to the weather, I really hope for the telloconnections to become more favorable, they been ok to crap. There is a chance though. I feel like eventually there be an event that sneaks up on us….

  26. Happy New Year to everyone. And Vicki, yes, there will be snow on the horizon. Hang in there everyone. It’s coming…

  29. To all of the professional meteorologists, armchair meteorologists, and all of us who just love weather and this blog. I wish all of you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019!!!

  30. Heavy ice pellets under the yellow echoes in southern NH. Decks and other surfaces coated with the ice pellets.

  32. Wishing a Happy New Year to all! Just looked out on the porch and I had to do a double take as there are nice fat snow flakes falling here in Andover. It’s a 50/50 mix and there’s a thin slushy coating on everything. Temp is 38. I’m sure it won’t last long at all but I can say it did snow in December!

  34. Still looks like 50/50 up here and coming down heavier. Nice call by TK for mix/snow at the onset this evening. The Christmas lights are shining brighter then ever at the moment!

    1. Mostly snow now with temp down to 37. Good coating on grass/dirt areas and roadway out front getting a bit slushy. Be careful out there!

      1. Just enough for a little dynamic cooling ahead of the warming aloft. Here in Woburn still a mix but more rain than snow at the moment. No accumulation.

  35. Sutton is also a mix but more rain than snow. I’m trying to stay awake to hear the Sutton cannon at midnight. Four hours sleep last night will make it a challenge

  36. A bit more of a burst of snow/sleet now as the heavier echoes came over. Slushy coating now here in “The Wu” a.k.a. Woburn.

  39. None of the local Boston tv stations showed the fireworks or the First Night crowd at midnight. I assume the fireworks went off in the heavy rain. Ch. 5 always stayed with Dick Clark but the other stations would cut in and show the First Night fireworks and festivities before going back to the network broadcast. I guess that local tradition is over. Oh well.

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