Tuesday Forecast

61 Comments

7:36AM

Happy New Year to all!

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
2018 will be remembered for its wet weather. It remains to be seen what 2019 will have as its highlight(s) but wind will get a head start today as we get a strong westerly wind behind our departing New Year’s Eve storm as it intensifies rapidly while moving into southeastern Canada, setting up a strong pressure gradient between it and high pressure building in from the west. At least this wind will come with relatively mild air, unlike a year ago at this time when we were dealing with extreme cold as well as wind. It will turn colder, however, first being noticed later today and moreso tonight, but not nearly to the levels of last year. A more seasonable cold will be with us for Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday’s weather dry and tranquil, governed by high pressure, followed by a weak disturbance passing by early Thursday which may bring a touch of very light or light snow to the region. A larger low pressure system, one that is a phase up of the subtropical and polar jet streams in the Midwest, will make its way here by Friday night into Saturday, and as has been the pattern with the larger systems, it will have warmed up enough for mainly rain. However, colder air trying to work in on the back side leaves us with the chance of some mix/snow before it winds down, depending on timing and storm track, later Saturday – a detail to be ironed out.
Forecast details…
TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning. Temperature fall through the 40s afternoon to the lower 40s east and upper 30s west by day’s end. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as mix/snow. Temperatures steady in 40s then fall to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
A passing snow shower possible January 6 otherwise dry and cold through January 7. Watching the threat of some mix/snow for January 8 depending on the track of a disturbance moving through the region, with fair and seasonably cold weather to follow based on current timing. Model guidance continues to perform poorly beyond a few days so use of it is limited and forecasts are not high confidence, but based on overall pattern expectation.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
A passing storm may bring rain/mix/snow around mid period with dry weather to start and end, but confidence and reasoning for this forecast period is the same as with DAYS 6-10.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. God morning and Happy New Year.

    HRRR actually performed reasonably well yesterday.
    It was originally calling for some snow in boston, but backed off from that and said a period sleet, which is exactly what happened. Received a little skim coating of sleet last night in the 8-9PM time frame or so. We were playing cards in the kitchen, but I had my outdoor thermometer display on the table. checked outside when temp dropped to 37. No snow. Checked at 36. No snow, but saw sleet pounding all over everything.

  4. The 4th will now feature a coastal system, or so it appears. HOWEVER, there will be
    no COLD air around, so it will feature RAIN!!!! how fitting. Can’t win for nothing!!!!
    Perhaps something down the road a bit. Just too early to know.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Happy New Year !

    I haven’t missed a forecast all year !!

    Precip arrived as light rain, changed to sleet, eased and went back to sprinkles. Then, it picked up, went back to sleet, then to snow, saw about 1 to 1.25 inches, changes to sleet, then a cold raw rain. (Salem/windham NH area)

  10. Thanks TK and Happy New Year everyone!!! I look forward to another year of blogging with all of you. I look forward to hearings TK’s and others predictions for the weather in 2019. It will be fun to look back on December 31st and see how many things we got correct. Here are mine for 2019.

  11. Boston will have measurable snowfall in January and finish the month with around 6 inches of snow.
    Valentine’s Day snowstorm. Sorry to the restaurant owners for the bad timing. This will be the biggest storm of the winter season with widespread 6-12 inches of snowfall
    In March will have a mild period before spring then Mother Nature plays a mean trick and gives us a snowstorm on the first day of Spring
    In April snow flakes will fly on the Red Sox home opener. The month will have ups and downs in temperatures but April will be a milder compared to April 2018
    In May nice spring weather will show up in the middle of the month. Memorial Day will have seasonable temps.
    Will have a widespread severe weather outbreak with 1-2 tornadoes just prior to summer.
    Summer will be less humid and will feature slightly above normal when it comes to 90 degree days. Hottest periods will be middle and late July and middle of August. The Hurricane drought for New England will continue and will have normal tornado activity.
    September will be warmer than normal and the warmer than normal temps will last through most of October. A cool down will come around Halloween.

    November will feature up and down temperatures and the inland areas will see snowflakes around the middle of the month

    In mid December will have the first widespread snowfall of the season. The snow should last for us to have a White Christmas.

  14. Watch for a sneaky 1-3” event on Thursday morning. The GFS will falter here due to its boundary layer warm bias. Higher elevations will be favored for accumulation, but if the moisture is there it should fall as snow just about everywhere. Could have significant impacts on the Thursday AM commute if something like the RGEM comes to fruition.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Pretty much my thoughts for sure.
      6Z runs showed next to nothing, then WHAM!!! 12Z runs, different story.

      Amazing!

  17. Today’s record high for Boston is 70 set in 1876. I would be curious as to what the remainder of that winter was like. Given global warming, I am somewhat surprised it still stands and will likely remain so for at least another year. Logan Currently at 58.

  18. One month of winter down, three to four more to go.

    It’ll be brutal cold and snow at some point and then we’ll ge sick of it. I’ll take another month of what we’ve had please.

    Happy New Year all!

    2. Brutal cold and snow? huh? I’ll believe that when I see it.

      The hell with it all, let’s bring on Spring!

  19. Thank you, TK.

    Happy New Year, everyone!

    Disappointing winter. Heck, the last 3 straight seasons – summer, fall, and winter – have disappointed. My only weather wish is less drab, dreary, and rainy weather. I think we’ve had our fair share in recent months.

    Said goodbye to my daughter last night. She’s back in England. London is far, and so I’m sad. It’ll be 5 or 6 months before I see her. But, London isn’t as far as some distant places:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46729898

  20. Under the weather as I caught what my cousin had a few days ago, but happy New Year. I looked at some of the weather models. Have they gotten colder?

    1. Well, you sent it all the way to Boston as my wife and I are both sick as well.
      Get better soon!!!

  21. I find it interesting that lately we always have to wait and wait for snow, but never for HHH as soon as the summer solstice arrives it comes in earnest and never seems to leave anytime soon. For months on end. 😉

  24. Windy and warm day. Wind was stronger this morning but has sounded like a freight train rolling through the yard all day.

    1. I posted mine on other site but they are supposed to sit for two weeks before they work. So far mine hasn’t changed a lot. It’s been a week. JPD. Matt. Are yours Doing anything?

  26. HI ALL!!!
    I had a very hellish first day of 2019 but not in a really bad way, just in a really busy way. The details are boring. Just know that I survived it. 😉 Now it’s time to catch up a bit…

    Tom: HAHA! Your joke about not missing a forecast all year may be the best one of the year. You and others have 364 days to top it. 😛

    I can see the potential for a little more, but right now I’m not too excited about Thursday morning’s event and am thinking more like a general coating of snow to localized 1 inch amounts.

    I must say that the Rose Parade & Winter Classic (Bruins vs Blackhawks) were 2 awesome TV events today. 🙂

    Here are my predictions, half science and half for fun, for 2019…

    Sports…
    * The Patriots will win the super bowl, but it will be the last one of the B/B era.
    * The Bruins & Celtics will both make the playoffs, but will win only one round each before being eliminated. Watch out for both of these teams in the next few years. They may make life on Causeway quite a thrill.
    * The Red Sox will repeat as WS champions.
    * So basically, the Pats may fade in the next few years but the other teams will keep things very entertaining in Boston.

    Weather…
    * After one of the wettest years on record in 2018, 2019 will be one of the driest.
    * The cold/dry pattern that becomes established by mid January remains in place through February, but March may surprise people with how mild it turns out. And the cold will not be extreme other than brief arctic shots.
    * I should have gone for less snow than I did in my winter forecast, however, there will be a renegade major snowstorm for parts of southern New England in April.
    * May through September will present some of the best weather we’ve ever seen in New England. There will be one wet stretch in May, but otherwise the drier than average weather will continue, but with plenty of water “in storage” we won’t slip into drought like the one that culminated in 2016’s parch-fest.
    * The long hurricane drought will continue for New England, though a couple TS’s may threaten in August or September and be responsible for the majority of summer’s rainfall, which will not be prolific.
    * Thunderstorm activity will come in waves but will be below normal, overall.
    * There will be a record low number of tornadoes in New England .
    * Web cams will capture a spectacular triple positive lightning strike on the Hancock, Prudential, and Four Seasons sky scrapers during an evening thunderstorm in Boston.
    * After a warm spell from in late September and the first half of October, many people will say “well, here we go again, every autumn is warm”, and then will have to take it back when we have record cold from mid October through the end of the year, with only occasional mild spells to give us breaks.
    * A series of light snowfalls will give the impression that winter is coming early and often starting in late autumn, but the end of the year, while cold, will also feature a slow start to the snow season, the second consecutive one which will feature lower than normal snowfall (2019-2020).
    * Despite the slow start to the snow season, Boston will have a white Christmas in 2019.

  27. I’m enjoying this winter so far, I work full time in the funeral business it’s so much easier working funerals not worrying about slipping and falling on ice and snow. I have only had to wear one layer of thermals and no hand and foot warmers so far,last year at this time was brutal several layers of thermals body, hand and foot warmers.

  28. Thanks Tk and Happy new year!
    I’m enjoying reading the full year predictions. Lets see how they pan out. I will make my own prediction in that I think we will take a direct hit by a landfalling hurricane somewhere on the SNE coastline. Just a hunch, as we are long overdue. Last one was Bob in 1991

    1. My youngest and family headed to humarock for the New Years plunge today ….they were NOT participating. Although my niece did eight years ago

  30. Yes indeed Vicki it was the 19th, I remember it well. My boss owned a house on misquamicut beach and I went down there with him to check out the property as soon as the national guard allowed residents to return. Lots of damage to structures, not to mention the incredible amount of sand deposited a block back from the beach.

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