Wednesday Forecast

71 Comments

6:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
The 2nd day of the New Year will be tranquil though chilly as Canadian high pressure dominates the region. This high will move off to the east and a system made up of a somewhat weak link-up between the polar and subtropical jet streams will bring some snow/rain early Thursday. This system will not be fully phased until it’s well east of the region, and doesn’t have much moisture to work with, so at worst it will be bringing a minor snowfall, but timed for a morning commute. Precipitation may be in the form of rain toward the South Coast where milder air will be in place. Whatever occurs will be offshore and out of here by afternoon with dry weather returning, and this dry weather will continue through Friday, but by Saturday, another system from the subtropical jet stream will make a run at the region. Although the bulk of it may stay to the south, it should still bring some wet weather Saturday, but in the form of rain as the cold air will not be hanging around. By Sunday, this system will be offshore and departing, but much stronger, and high pressure will be approaching from the west, so we’ll see gusty wind and a return to cold weather. A few snow showers may occur due to a passing trough of low pressure in the northwesterly air flow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas then mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as mix/snow evening. Temperatures steady in 40s then fall to 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall 30s to 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
Dry and cold January 7 with high pressure in control. A low pressure area brings a snow/mix/rain risk for January 8. Fair and colder January 9-10. A system may approach with some light precipitation by January 11.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Additional unsettled weather possible in the January 12-13 period with drier and seasonably cold weather by mid to late period.

71 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Chasing June 14th is my slogan since we have no snow days yet.

    I had a colleague who did the polar plunge at Rexhame beach. Amazing how people do that. I don’t care if it was 90F yesterday …… I put my feet in the ocean about a week ago and it hurt !!!!!!!!!!

  3. Its interesting to watch the EURO slowly sink south with the system early this weekend.

    Several days ago, this was a warm, inside runner.

    I suspect the EURO will head further south with time, for this to be a swipe or miss.

    The EURO, when it changes, reminds of the NHC and their changes to projected cyclone tracks. Nothing sudden, but slow adjustments with each run.

      1. BPS teachers do have to report today. Don’t know what exactly they have to do. Back in my day Jan. 2 was back to school for everybody.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Today I continuing working, but part time 20 hours per week (with full benefits).
    Position title changed from:

    IT Director
    to
    Senior Business Intelligence Analyst

    1. Congratulations (assuming this is a change you wanted). And just think–an extra 20 hours a week to review model data!

      1. Thanks guys. Actually I would have preferred to continue to work full time for a number of reasons which I won’t get into. However,as the Rolling Stones lyrics state in their tune: “Can’t Always Get what you want”,
        You can’t always get what you want
        But if you try sometimes you might find
        You get what you need

        Considering the alternative was to be on the street with no job,
        I now get 20 hours at the same hourly rate as before with FULL
        benefits, which includes Health Care! It’s a good deal.

        1. The company clearly understands your value as an employee and person. It sure is a great deal for a special person. I wish you the best. And now you have more time with Mrs. OS!!! Talked about added value. Congratulations.

            2. Wow old salty less hours with same pay & full benefits sounds like a sweet deal too me . Good luck hang in there with the change everything works out it always does

              1. Not same total pay, same rate.

                Instead of 40 hours at $nn.nn per hour, it is 20 hours at the same
                $nn.nn per hour. In the end it
                is half the pay I was getting.

  10. Thanks, TK…

    Tom, funny you mention no snow days. My colleague just came into my room and we both looked at each other and said “Early June” at the same time!!!! 🙂

    My students are doing “verb snowflakes” conjugations. I told them that’s the only flakes that they would be seeing this winter!!!! 🙂

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Well, the coldest temperatures of the season could have been in November; Thanksgiving weekend. And, the all-time record for lowest snowfall in a winter’s season is very much in the cards. I don’t see anything remotely close to a snowstorm impacting our area in the short- and mid-range. The long-range shows marginal temperatures at best for snow, with Boston rarely dipping below 25F, even during `cold’ periods. Gosh, even in 2011-2012 it snowed on MLK weekend, and we got one or two nights of single digit readings in Boston in January. Also, the Charles froze over. In all my years, I’ve never experienced a winter in which the Charles didn’t freeze over. But, this year may be it.

    I won’t predict much weather-wise other than our biggest snowfall of less than 5 inches will occur in March or April, and April and May will be raw and damp.

    On sports, the Patriots will lose next week (the match-ups aren’t favorable, except maybe the Chargers), the Celtics will lose in the first round (leading to some major readjustments, including a coaching change), the Bruins will make it to the conference finals, and the Red Sox will get knocked out in the ALCS.

    1. I think I was too high with my estimate of 28 inches for the year.
      Pretty sad, but hey, the Winter isn’t over. All it takes is one biggie to get
      us up there. We shall see. But prospects look bleak at the moment.

      2. WHAT winter 2018-19? 😉

        Yesterday Eric mentioned daffodils were popping up already. This global warming has gone totally insane!

  14. Reading the latest nws discussion, it seems as the weather will be transitioning into a more active pattern. Lots to iron out but we could have some interesting weather to watch, may not include a blockbuster storm but will be active nonetheless. Please correct me if I’m missing the mark on this though. Here’s what I’m talking about. This is from NWS

    Mild winter continues. Evaluating 5-day ensemble means, progressive
    H3 N Pacific flow emphasized by +EPO / +WPO trends yields continued
    CONUS warmth and higher H5 heights downstream of NE Pacific H5 trof.
    Subsequent preferred H5 trof SE Canada / Labrador Sea, not mild all
    the time. Energy wave-train undergoing subtle perturbations, wiggles
    noted by -AO trends, there will be opportunities for NE CONUS Arctic
    shots rearward of downstream storm maturation, and if energy follows
    can`t rule out onset wintry outcomes. Lots of energy, lots of chaos,
    interactions and nudges, potential split-flows or anti-cyclonic wave
    breaks, can`t nail outcomes down with any certainty. Hopefully some
    insight through the noise in the discussion below. One thing worthy
    of noting , as to long-range influences, it`ll be interesting weeks
    from now of a MJO phase 6 to 7. EPS weeklies suggest by late January
    into February we`ll see colder conditions.

    2. The pattern has already been active, or “normal active”. After the wet fall there is still this kind of illusion being perpetuated by media that we’re in the same pattern. We haven’t been. It’s been kind of normal in terms of # of systems, cold/dry stretches, and milder weather for a good part of mid and late December.

      Interestingly, the weather pattern fits what the atmospheric indices say it should be doing. Amazing ain’t it? 😉

  16. Did anyone catch the moon and (I believe it is) Venus next to each other this morning at daybreak?
    Absolutely stunning, I thought!

    The Earth makes its closest approach to the Sun tonight, its perihelion (is that the right word???)

    1. For a model that has such a great reputation it has the worst snowfall algorithm in all of modeling. I don’t get it.

      1. Are you saying that the QPF forecast is OK, but the snow algorithm sucks? OR the QPF forecast sucks and thus any snow algorithm is doomed to SUCK because of it????

        Thanks

  18. In my opinion it’s already been a better winter than 2012. As ski areas have been able to make snow, unlike 2012 which sucked. I also feel strongly that there will be snowy periods one of which could be very close

  20. Been glancing around the net today and I have to laugh…
    The models suck until they show something the person wants, then they are ok again. 😉

    1. Funny how that happens sometime. Don’t think that I fall into that trap
      because I post a link to something interesting that a model is showing. 😀 😀

  21. Tomorrow marks the latest winter sunrise! And we are picking up a minute a day with our sunsets!

  22. A belated New Year to everyone!

    The storm next Tuesday the 8th continues to look interesting. 12z GFS, FV3, CMC, ICON and Euro all showing accumulating snows for a good portion of New England. Storm approaching from the west with cold air in place, followed by some coastal redevelopment which locks the cold air in, at least in central and northern New England. Would be a snow to mix/rain southern areas and all snow north verbatim based on what models are showing today.

    There are some snow chances beyond that as well. Maybe not blockbusters but certainly not as bleak as some here are making it out to be!

    1. Ok then, let’s see if these pan out. Then and only then will I say the outlook is not bleak. I wonder IF that outcome will even be there on the 0Z runs. 😀 😀

  23. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 3h3 hours ago

    Next Tuesday we’ve got a chance for our first plowable snow in the area since mid November. Quite a ways off still but our best shot since then anyway, especially interior locales.

    1. Perhaps best shot as it looked this morning. We shall see. I’ve heard this before.
      AM I Negative? You betcha I am. 😀

  24. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · 8h8 hours ago

    “Double, double toil and trouble.” GFS predicts that the #PolarVortex splits into three separate daughter vortices. Now like Macbeth’s witches let’s see what mischief these three “weird sisters” can brew.

  26. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 9h9 hours ago

    I’m not sure how the pattern during the second half of January will play out. But I put away my grill for the season, yesterday.

  27. Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 5h5 hours ago

    Impressive consistency in the ECMWF Monthly Model w/regards to the Jan 28-Feb 4 (lala land) 500mb geopotential height anom forecast. 4-straight runs with Greenland into North Pole blocking. The biggest change in the most recent run is the Pacific sector. ECMWF pulling a Jon-Snow.

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1080503480870232064

  28. Congrats on the job status, JPD!

    I can still see some light snow accumulations late tonight and early tomorrow away from the south and east coasts in SNE, but it’s not much. This event is just the perfect example of unphased split flow. It’ll start to phase offshore, but it’s long gone from us by then. My thinking yesterday of a potential 1-3″ event was based on a hunch that the northern stream component would be a little bit farther south, not that the two branches would actually phase in time to be of any factor around here. They’ll see those light accumulations in central New England, but less so in SNE.

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Looks like new management is interested in marketing 4 mobile apps I have developed for the Agency that employees me. Looking forward to that. No, the weather app is not one.

  29. I feel compelled to link our discussion from Mt. Holly today as well. My first time writing a published AFD (the synopsis and long term sections primarily- see if you recognize my voice 😉 ). It’s not perfect; Saturday’s storm may move in a little faster for my area than it comes across here and I already caught one little typo in the long term that spell checker wouldn’t have helped with. But I’ll be printing it for posterity nonetheless 🙂

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    2. Congratulations and I would recognize your voice anywhere. Love the credits at the end. I can’t stop smiling.

    3. There you got your typo out of the way now you gotta be perfect! 😉

      Great job! So very happy to see some of what all your effort has done, and that is only the tiniest iceberg tip to a great career ahead!

    4. That’s awesome, so happy for you and that was quick for your first discussion. They are lucky to have you. I’ll miss you next door in Wrentham!

  32. Mark, thank you for all of the posts
    Interesting. Best and funniest was Dr. Cogen’s. We shall see.

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