Thursday Forecast

76 Comments

6:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)
Pacific flow has decided to dominate the pattern across the US for now, but we remain with split jet stream flow most of the time with a polar branch in southern Canada and a subtropical branch over the US. These streams are generally out of phase and send their own systems out way with no major storm formation because of the lack of phasing. Look for this pattern to go on for now, the arctic air held at bay in Canada most of the time, but also no major winter warm ups either. There are frequent passages of disturbances, one such today with spotty light snow/rain with insignificant impact this morning before it clears up, a slightly stronger system that comes along in the subtropical jet and delivers some rain Saturday as it will be milder at that time, although the bulk of that system may stay just south of the area, and a third system which will approach at the very end of the period by late Monday, having colder air to work with, bringing some risk of snow by Monday night.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy this morning with areas of light snow southern NH and northern MA with a coating of snow possible in some locations, and scattered rain/snow to the south with no snow accumulation. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind S up to 10 MPH this morning, shifting to NW this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine filtered by high clouds at times. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early then calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving morning, may start as freezing rain interior higher elevations. Rain continuing afternoon but steadiest south of I-90 while areas to the north see more intermittent and lighter rain. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s morning, falling to 30s afternoon.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)
Low pressure expected to cut across the region with a snow to rain situation January 8 but details of the storm track are still uncertain. Further south and it’s a colder storm, further north and it’s even milder. Windy, colder, risk of snow showers behind the system January 9. Fair and more tranquil but chilly January 10. The next round of unsettled weather is possible January 11-12.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)
More of the same. Unsettled weather to start the period, a shot of colder/drier weather follows, then will watch for another passing disturbance later in the period.

76 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  7. Good morning and thank you. I was somewhat surprised to head out the car
    to see it RAINING. While drive, I did see a few lonely flakes mixed in, but let’s face it,
    it was RAIN!

  8. light coating of snow in North Reading when I left this morning. If the trend continues to be for storms to be suppressed further south than initially modeled, then next Monday and Tuesday should be a colder solution than currently advertised.

    1. Actually there is not really a trend there either way. It’s how modeling is handling systems depending on which stream they are in and how much (if any) phasing takes place.

      The Tuesday system is likely to end up a little further north.

  12. I guess some people’s discontent is other people’s contentment.

    I have a love/hate thing with snow in my current age.

    If it comes, I’ll be excited and love it while its falling and there is a storm.

    On the other hand, it is so nice to be able to look a few days out at a time and know there will be no weather cancellations, no slippery travel, no need to cancel or re-schedule things. It really takes away a major stressor for me and has been so nice thus far this cold season.

  13. Outlook looks gloomy for snow lovers.

    Even this Tuesday system mentioned by Eric last night, is trending warmer and
    more N&W of us.

    Looks like a parade of:

    Suppressed
    Too warm
    Cutters and Inside runners

    All of which equates to little or no snow.

    One of these days an inside runner/cutter will run into enough cold air to at
    least allow for some front end snow.

    1. Hmmm I can think of at least 2 persons here on the blog who have already said that, can you?

      And that is why Tuesday’s system will be RAIN, unless the antecedent air mass is cold and strong enough to allow “some” front end snow. We shall see.

      Given the above, how will it ever be cold or strong enough?????

      1. When we get a system that takes a decent track, due to the Pacific flow, there is NO COLD air in place to support snow. AND when it is cold enough the systems pass to our West.

        A PERFECT NO WIN SCENARIO!!!

        Winter, SEE YA!

        1. Caused me to re-evaluate my just-beyond-medium range forecast. We don’t often see the Pacific that warm basin-wide, and when we do, this is often the type of winter pattern we get.

          It’s happened many times in the past but it stands out like a sore thumb because of today’s scrutinizing of every move the atmosphere makes and the availability of media to spread the info.

  15. I am still holding hope for next week, I am hoping for a good old fashion surprised snow storm. I could care less if Boston gets any snow or not, I want snow west of I95 and up into ski country 🙂 Hopefully going skiing next week 😀

    1. This pattern is about as far away as you can get from having a text book old fashioned snowstorm as you can get. Not in the cards any time soon.

  17. Given that I think today’s 12z GFS run is somewhat reasonable with respect to early next week (don’t take it verbatim but close enough), I will use the 126 hour forecast from it for this example, and that is this: If you want a “snowstorm” down here in SNE, this is not the set-up you want to see. It may snow a little bit from this, but this is not turning into a surprise big snow event unless the models are about to have their collective biggest 120+ hour fail we’ve pretty much every seen.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010312&fh=126

  19. I cannot say I am shocked that this winter is not producing so far but I am surprised in the manner in which it is happening…..overall relatively mild pattern dominated by cutters and rain storms.

    The cold and dry, kiss em goodbye pattern has not materialized nor has the 2009-2010-esque mid Atlantic snow blitz. Granted, still plenty of time for this to change but not happening in the immediate future with this continued Pacific flow in effect, as mentioned above.

    1. That pattern will still probably take hold but the Pacific set-up ended up a little different, and some of that may have been due to the warming to the south being further east than modeled. If you also recall, I said the MJO, or lack thereof, strength-wise, was a major wild card and can throw any medium or long range forecast into a meteorological blender. MJO hung around in phases 4/5 but nearly neutral for a long time and is now moving into 6/7 but still not with great strength, again not far from neutral. When that index is a little stronger, its impacts tend to be more “forecastable”. I am, however, taking notes for future reference. So based on that, while I’m not surprised at low snowfall so far, I am also not all that surprised in how it’s happening.

  20. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · 6h6 hours ago

    It’s official Stratospheric Major Warming and #PolarVortex split! Second in two years. Both PV splits under different phases of ENSO, MJO and QBO. What is the same? High October Eurasian #snow cover extent and low Barents-Kara sea ice concentration both years. Coincidence?

    1. So basically, with different ENSO/MJO/QBO than last time, the impact becomes like spinning a spinner with multiple outcomes on a game board. 🙂

      1. Yep! At this point, I’ll take my chances spinning the roulette wheel because in this current pattern, we are a guaranteed loser! (if you like snow).

    2. Per Judah, the primary result of this at least in the near term (as predicted by the GFS) is the expansion of cold and snow in northern Eurasia and possibly western Europe.

      I would guess the impact of this on our weather down the road remains to be seen.

        1. He’s not really writing that blog for the layman. He’s writing it for scientists. We can translate the important details here, which we do.

      2. Especially since it now appears the MJO, moving through 6 & 7 as noted above, is going to go into 8 & 1 (usually favorable for snow and/or cold) but instead of being prominent it’s going to take a rapid turn right through the neutral circle yet again, skipping most of 1 & 2, the 2 most favorable snow phases in this type of pattern. 😉

        1. Too many teleconnections not working in our favor at once. Kiss of death. I sincerely hope you are dead wrong with your MJO prediction. No offense!

  21. I think we’re at the point now where the sentiment is about as negative as it can get on getting snow in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. And it’s for good reason and I’ve gone over many of the problems myself, but I think our expectations have been appropriately adjusted and now we just live with it and watch it unfold. It looks bleak through at least 1/20, but beyond then we really aren’t good enough to say one way or the other. So recognize by that point that we will have eaten more than half of meteorological winter, but be wary of assuming we will go the entire winter without any cold/snow chances. We won’t.

  23. I think the idea of the basin-wide warmth in the Pacifc being a contributing factor to the Pacific dominance of the pattern is interesting. A Pacific flow pattern is always going to be mild, and it’s not news that we’re seeing that now, but how does it change with a warmer Pacific, which we will only see more of in the future with climate change? Definitely a climate issue with strong implications on weather and something that would be interesting to do some modeling on, trying to isolate that influence.

        1. Just goes to show how I am feeling about it. That is all.
          I know it’s a bit early, but I don’t like what I am seeing
          and just reacting to it. 😀

          1. Well, as WxW noted above, it’s not unreasonable to look out about as far as January 20 with “not a great outlook for the snow lover” but that leaves a whole lot of weeks left to sneak at least something in that would be to their liking. Even in an overall unfavorable seasonal pattern there are exceptions.

              1. Very true. 😛 I’ll warn the server maintenance people that a whole lot of “representative curse characters” may show up on WHW from a user named JpDave if we get into early February and nothing has happened yet. 😛

  25. I do have a chuckle at times reading the tweets etc. from met’s who are definitely writing them as if snow lovers are the primary audience. “Dismal news” in that tweet above is only dismal if you can’t handle a pattern with very little snowfall. 😉 I love snow, but I can certainly handle a snowless pattern too. 🙂

    2. Actually the last sentence of that post below the link to the tweet was my own commentary. I am a snow lover guilty as charged. I can be patient and handle a snowless pattern for awhile but if this crap is still going on in mid February, then my grumpiness level may equal or exceed Dave’s. 🙂

      1. I’d bet a majority who like winter associate it with snow. I’m fine without because it is still winter. But I am disappointed if we don’t have a storm or three. And I sympathize with those who depend on snow for a living. Mountains have snow making equipment. But there is more to skiing than downhill. Never thought I’d say that.

        1. I have no idea why but I just got this visual of a bored plow driver with a snow making machine in the back of his truck, shooting snow over the roof to the road in front of him, and plowing it out of the way as he goes. I need to make a meme. 😉

  26. Thank you, TK.

    While it is far too early to declare winter over, it’s not looking good. I’m not just talking about snow, because to me snow is only part of winter. It’s any, and I mean any, consistency in terms of cold. Stretches of cold, dry, and sunny days with ice formation define winter as much as snow does. This year, for the past 5 weeks there’s been nothing resembling a consistent stretch of winter, nor is there anything on the horizon. Nothing, nada, rien, niets, nichts. Patterns are hard to break, whether physical or behavioral, and this one’s stuck in a rut or a scratch on the old vinyl: Occasional days with seasonable cold – not really cold in my book – followed every time by fairly long stretches of much milder air, often rainy, frequently dismal. It’s an Irish winter, basically. Not something to write home about.

  27. JPDave congrats on the new job title.
    If it was not for the 9 inches of snow I got in November I would be real cranky right now.
    What is frustrating is Saturday good snow track no cold air. Just saw Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet about EURO weeklies. Same as always week 3 big pattern change. I am still waiting.

  28. A broad area of low pressure in the east pacific been given a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. January system would be the first in the reliable record in the EP

    1. There may have been a small handful of others in January, but they occurred before enough reliable data was available to confirm whether or not they were true tropical cyclones (generally before the mid 1950s). In January 1989 a strong tropical storm formed near the line that is used to delineate the eastern and central Pacific. Usually the eastern Pacific is colder than the waters to the west, and this season the reverse is true.

      Ironically, the Atlantic Ocean has had 4 January tropical cyclones: 1938, 1951, 1954, 1978. The records also show a couple “questionable” systems with unreliable data to confirm.

  29. Just like extreme sentiment is a contrarian indicator for the markets, the extreme negative sentiment for this winter is a good sign for us snow lovers…silver linings

  30. We always say that a major storm shakes up the atmosphere and can change weather patterns. Could there could be a such a storm somewhere on the globe that could do just that and really change the pattern as is now predicted?

    1. It would have to be in the northern hemisphere and at the moment I don’t see any “pattern changer” out there. The large scale indices have far too much influence right now.

  31. So I have to be honest here. I don’t actually like snow when it is falling, I like the anticipation of a storm. Everyone is buzzing and it leads to great conversations among friends, family, and coworkers. And then there is the excitement of coming here to see how many comments have been added since the last check-in. I immediately look for JPD’s comments to see the latest model info he has shared. So I am not missing the snow, I am missing the excitement. I am sure others can relate.

    1. I love it when it is falling but, Sue…..excellent comment. Anticipation is always at least half the joy.

    2. Anticipation has always been half the joy if not more than half for me, even from when I was a little kid. 🙂

      1. Me too. I know I’ve said many times that my mom and nana used to say that but I never understood till I got older and a bit wiser 😉

  33. From NWS

    Snow, transitioning to rain for some. Intricate spatial and temporal
    details with respect to surface temperatures, thermal fields, lift
    and ascent. Nevertheless, expect a front-end thump associated with
    isentropic upslope beneath favorable jet dynamics to net secondary
    low development along with ascent through the dendritic growth zone
    as cold air drainage precedes from lingering Central Canada 1030+
    high now over E Canada. Cold air holding firm, low levels saturate
    towards respective wet-bulb, have to nail down snow ratios and snow
    intensity with respect to accumulation, but can`t rule out winter
    weather headlines, highest confidence over N/W interior MA and CT
    with support from CIPS analogs, coastal locations transitioning to
    rain with daylight hours, dependence on surface – H85 low. A better
    idea as to impacts and outcomes with later forecasts, however does
    not hurt to plan ahead, especially with respect to the Tuesday AM
    commute.

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