Friday Forecast

72 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)
Pacific flow pattern will continue. During this period we’ll be visited by two passing storm systems moving along this fast jet stream flow, the first taking a track that would often favor snow, except there will be pretty much no cold air for the storm to work with, and it will fall as mainly rain. The second system coming along late Monday night and Tuesday will have more cold air to work with at the start, but there won’t be a whole lot to hold it in place so that system, while it may produce enough snow to have an impact at the start, will probably not stay snow from start to finish, especially across southern areas. It’s also not going to be the type of system that has a chance to draw much moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so whatever it takes with it from the Pacific and what it manages to generate from existing moisture along its path will be about it. There are still a few days to work out the details on that one.
Forecast details…
TODAY: A few low clouds Cape Cod and Islands early, otherwise sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early then calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving morning, may start as brief freezing rain interior higher elevations. Rain continuing afternoon but steadiest south of I-90 while areas to the north see more intermittent and lighter rain. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain pulling out from northwest to southeast, but may end as brief mix or snow north and west of Boston. Watch for patchy black ice overnight especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, strongest eastern coastal areas especially Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow late night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow to mix/rain north, mix to rain south. Temperatures rising to middle 30s to middle 40s, mildest to the south.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)
Colder, windy, with snow showers possible January 9. Fair, chilly more tranquil January 10-11. Next storm system potential is the weekend of January 12-13 and although its still many days away my early impression is that it could be somewhat similar to the system expected early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)
Not a whole lot of change to the pattern in this area as we watch Canada start to turn colder, which may signal a change beyond this period, but for this particular period look for a cycle similar to the 5-day period just before it.

72 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK

    I like your first sentence. Is this something like being visited by the ghosts of two christmases past?

      1. They totally slipped by me Vicki! 🙂

        You might say we will be visited by the ghosts of prolific rains past from last fall. The morning Ch. 25 met hinted as much for the Tuesday event in particular. Heavy snow to heavy rain.

  2. Thank you TK.

    3″ of snow at the mountain here at Killington yesterday. Not a lot but something to help.

      1. they were very good this morning– yesterday there was lots of snow — but the enemy is the hard pack below.

    1. At least until the middle of the month and maybe 3rd-4th week of January. I like all types of weather, but agree it’s a little boring.

              1. My wife thinks it is. I think it is just a nasty cold.

                I had my flu shot, but they don’t usually help anyway.

                1. Every time I get my flu shot I get sick…….. I am all for vaccines but I hate needles lol its probably my only real fright. I always tense up, probably because when I was little I was very sick and go so much work done, not to mention there was a time when I was young that my arm turned purple and I couldn’t move it for 3 weeks…..

  7. I hope that Logan can at least get its first inch (snow) of the season come Tuesday before the changeover. I would be curious if that would be the latest ever.

  8. OK here is a Q out of left field. Does anyone have a model I can look at that would cover Cancun? Just need a link.

  10. The high cloudiness in the sky gives the sky almost a summery look. Another windy day. Seems to be a lot of windy days lately. I have to believe that in Feb. or March we will get/or have had some measurable snow. If it snows Tues. morning not good for commuters and husband has eye appt. and I will have to drive. Oh, well. Looking at the cover picture of WHW blog w/the snow on trees reminds us it is winter.

    JP, hope you and your wife feel better soon.

      1. Keep getting that flu shot every year JPD so you won’t be “as sick”. I hope your wife got hers as well. 🙂

  11. Good (almost) afternoon, everyone, and thanks, TK…
    We were enduring the “Bomb Cyclone” a year ago right now during the January blizzard. Thanks to JimmyJames for bring that up in your year-end review!!!

    Finally had a chance to add the numbers for Taunton 2018 rainfall. We had an incredible 70.90″ of precipitation last year, especially for a non-hurricane, tropical storm or remnants year.

    We eclipsed the old Taunton record of 67.23″ set in 1898. The state record is 76.49″ set in 1996 in New Salem.

  13. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 15h15 hours ago

    A benchmark nor’easter on January 5th and it’s almost entirely rain. Hard to have a bigger winter fail. #waste

    That pretty much says it all!

  15. Be careful before you look too closely at those Euro weeklies…..

    Tweet from Todd Crawford‏ @tcrawf_nh

    A look back at the face-plant performance of the epic ECMWF week 6 forecast from Dec. 3…IMO, failure was due to underestimation of MJO magnitude and overestimation of translation speed in Indo/Maritimes *and* too-quick SSW and downward-propagating impacts…

    https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1081001666646822912

    2. Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan · 19h19 hours ago

      Shut the blinds if you’re looking for a snowy pattern over the next 2 weeks. That said, the Euro Weeklies are definitely highlighting a big change for week 3 with a huge reversal over the Pacific plus plenty of blocking over Greenland/Arctic (-NAO/-AO). We’ll see.

      https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1080952125042188289

  16. Another potentially positive sign from the latest CFS…

    Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 59m59 minutes ago

    After nearly one month straight of forecasts indicating much above average temperatures for the eastern two thirds of the nation, the CFSv2 has finally shifted colder for the upcoming 3-5 weeks. Perhaps Winter is lurking around the corner?

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1081226216865234944

  17. What is so frustrating is that in spite of this “cold & dry” pattern we have nothing but rain events. I just don’t get it.

        1. 10 days out. Valid 12Z (7AM) Monday 1/14.
          Much is likely to change by then, but it’s nice seeing it there. Haven’t seen much of that lately.

  19. I haven’t read the comments here or browsed the net much today but I’m sure people are going bonkers on the one-off blizzard the ECMWF has for January 14.

    This is very likely a case of something JMA referred to. The ECMWF, as good as it can be, can also suck with the southern stream in a split flow pattern and it just totally over-amplifies everything. I think that’s the case here.

  20. The Euro Weeklies probably have the cold correct, but they probably have the snowy pattern incorrect. Same problem will exist that has existed all winter, and that is MJO-based model misfires. The ECMWF Ensemble Mean forecast for MJO takes the index through weak phase 8 from January 5-11 and then drops it right into neutral and toward weak phases 4 and 5 again, where we were in a lot of December. One big thing this tells me is the models may very well continue to completely suck in resolving the pattern beyond a few days, more so than normal. Now granted, I’m using a model I just declared will suck to help me with this prediction, but at least the Ensemble Mean should offer you a little more security than any given operational run.

  21. I’m just going out to 72 hrs at this part of this cold season.

    Last night, or perhaps it was even Wednesday night, I saw tv weather casts showing a snow threat for NEXT Tuesday and already now, on Friday, that looks laughable for southern New England.

    72 hrs, 3 days, it’s keeping my meteorological sanity quite nice.

    1. models been crap, but will say lets not model jump there are some ingredients there to allow some front end snow and to allow ski areas to get some much needed natural snow.

    1. Two foot jackpot over me. Lock it in!

      Just seeing a model run like that gives me some small level of satisfaction, even knowing there is no snow ball’s chance in hell of that happening!

  24. Nearing 12 hours after I wrote the forecast above and at the moment don’t have too many changes to make to the thoughts contained therein.

    There will be a bit of a sharp gradient in rainfall for tomorrow’s rain event. I hope nobody’s expecting a total soaker north of I-90 because all areas there will be under 1/2 inch for total rainfall. To the south 1/2 to 1 inch is possible, with a spot heavier amount somewhere near the South Coast.

    The system for early next week to me looks like minor snow/mix to mix/rain Tuesday morning. It may be similar but a little wetter and milder than the system we had this week on Thursday. The follow-up low is a wildcard. Not sure how fast it intensifies but it may track over or just north of SNE. If that is the case it may be a rain to brief snow set-up, not major. But with either of these, if the snow times out for the AM commute Tuesday and the PM commute Wednesday it could cause a few issues.

    Looking way ahead, next system the weekend of January 12-13 should not turn out like the Euro’s snow bomb forecast, but more like a 2-part system that doesn’t really phase. However, that’s way out there, and given model performance, I’m not going to say anything with high confidence on that thing.

  25. 12z Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on the coastal storm threat for 1/13 as well.

    18z GFS has the coastal storm as well around the same time period but tucked in too close to the coast so would be another rainstorm for SNE with snow further north.

    This could be a watcher. And interesting in that is coming around the time or just preceding a potential pattern change.

    GFS has another threat around the 18th as well. Modeled now as an inside runner, but nice troughing in the east and the low approaching from the Gulf rather than Colorado. Already a better look. Perhaps that one ends up having more legs and ushers in the new pattern?

    But alas…..we shouldn’t be looking at the models beyond 3 days out now, right? 🙂

    1. Right, but I would very much like to see if there is anything remotely resembling
      that system on tonight’s 0Z run.

      1. I don’t think the models are going to lose this storm. They have had it some form or another for many runs. Most likely it ends up something closer to what the GFS is showing….an inside runner with mostly rain. I think we need another week for the pattern change to happen. The threat around the 18th might actually have a better chance of being a colder system.

  26. Just took a look at the latest GFS, FV3, CMC, ICON, and Euro for Tuesday. All models as of now are pretty consistent showing an upfront quick hit of snow changing to rain with 1-3″ across SNE. Least in northern CT and RI, most across northern MA.

    I think Logan has a legit chance of quintupling its seasonal snowfall with this storm 🙂

    3. Well, Boston would only need 0.8″ on Tuesday AM to quintuple its current seasonal snowfall, if my math is correct…..

        1. I meant that the models showed a general 1-3” across SNE but with the 1” amounts further south and closer to the coast and the 3” amounts in northern MA closer to the VT and NH border. Logan would be closer to 1” on those model projections.

  27. Thank you, TK.

    Hope you feel better, JPD and Mrs. OS. I got the flu last week, in spite of a flu shot. Hit me like a ton of bricks – mainly high fever, sore throat, and muscle aches. Now, I only have a residual cough which makes me sound like a 3-pack a day smoker.

    Our (Northern) Irish winter continues this weekend and much of next week. Some more gray skies, cold rain on Saturday, blustery on Sunday, more cold rain on Monday, mix on Tuesday, gray skies on Wednesday with a possible touch of snow, rain, and mix. It’s a pattern more befitting of Belfast than Boston.

    Today did look bright and cheery, so at least we had that.

    I’m not counting on a return to `real’ winter. Will believe it when I see it.

    One thing I am hoping for is colder and more winter-like weather next weekend for the Patriots game. All 3 possible opponents are more used to warmer climes. I realize Baltimore can get cold, but usually it’s significantly warmer than here.

    1. Oh no, Joshua. I’m so sorry to hear that but glad you are better. And they said the shot was more effective this year. AND you must be a spring chicken because they also said it was impacting more under the age of 50.

      Keep resting and hope that cough goes away quickly.

Comments are closed.