Saturday Forecast

61 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)
On we go with the Pacific flow. However some modifications or adjustments will be made by the pattern over North America during the next several days which will allow building cold in Canada and pieces of it to be delivered to New England. We are not about to plunge into a pattern of persistent cold just yet, however, as a “wavy rope” jet stream off the Pacific and moving across the US prevents that for now. This pattern, despite being active, is not one that produce major storms, with the ones in this time period being of generally minor impact, like today’s wet weather event. As I said previously, the track of today’s low pressure area is one that would many times bring snowfall to much of the region, but with the lack of cold air, this will not be the case. However with rain in the vicinity already, there may be some pockets of icing in portions of central MA and southern NH where temperatures, especially in valley locations, are hovering around the freezing mark. By late in the day, however, low pressure wrapping up south of New England and dry air already pressing in from the north will cut off the precipitation in many areas to the north and west of Boston and they will dry out while a more concentrated band of moderate to briefly heavy rain may occur in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. This will not be hanging around, however, and these areas will also dry out later this evening. As that low pulls away and intensifies Sunday, and high pressure builds in from the west, the squeeze-play between the two will bring a gusty north to northwest wind and there will be just enough instability around for a few snow showers to be about as colder air moves in. As the wind settles and high pressure moves overhead we’ll find ourselves with a colder than average but more tranquil day on Monday, but we’ll already be noticing high cloudiness increasing ahead of the next system. You probably have been hearing hype about this system for several days now, as it was shown as a more significant system on model guidance previously. However, I and others have stated that model guidance often presents a fair to poor performance in a split flow jet stream pattern, and has issues with where and when to phase streams, what to do with one stream or another, among other things. The reality of this system coming late Monday night and Tuesday is that it will be a relatively minor system, but may deliver some snow, enough to slick up some roads, at a time when many people would be using them early Tuesday. And with the colder day just ahead of it, it would allow the impact of even minor snow to be a little more than what we saw in the system of last Thursday, when the ground was warmer. However, even that impact will be fleeting as milder air will work into the region during Tuesday, and we’ll likely see any snow going over to mix and rain before ending. That may not be the end of the story, however, as another batch of energy still has to translate eastward across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and will generate another low pressure area that will bring some additional rain and snow. With marginal temperatures for this system we’ll have to wait a little bit to realize the details and impacts, but it is not going to end up being a major event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may briefly freeze on some surfaces in central MA and southern NH this morning. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable this morning, NE increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod and Islands during the afternoon with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Southern NH, northern and central MA dry out with breaking clouds while overcast and rain continues early to the south and east before ending late evening. Clearing pre-dawn. A few patches of black ice may form. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, strongest MA East Coast including Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible mid afternoon on. Highs 38-45 morning, falling back through 30s afternoon. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts likely.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early, then clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow except mix South Coast with minor accumulation. Morning mix to rain showers. Isolated rain showers afternoon. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely morning. Variably cloudy with snow showers possible afternoon. Temperatures generally stead 30s to lower 40s. Becoming windy late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)
Windy, cold, dry January 10. Tranquil, cold, dry January 11. Unsettled weekend January 12-13 with snow/mix/rain possible but not looking like a major storm at this point. Drier weather returns January 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)
Low confidence forecast as we’ll be looking for a transition from the Pacific flow pattern to one that should be a little more dominated by a broad trough and more northwesterly flow. But forecasting the evolution of this pattern and its timing is very difficult at this point. The period probably starts and ends dry with a passing system of rain/mix/snow somewhere in between.

61 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. What are your NFL wild card predictions this weekend? You did good with them last year. Hopefully some love for my Cowboys in your prediction as we play Seattle tonight. Frustrating with a good snow track and yet it is rain.

    1. 3-6 inches would look nice at this point. I’ll take just about anything. Both Euro and GFS are signalling somewhat colder temps in the mid- and long-range, with fewer oscillations. That bodes well. We’ll have to wait and see.

  5. Thank you, TK.

    I did postpone my trip to Vermont this morning, as along the route there’s currently freezing rain. In Grantham NH it’s 28F and raining. That spells problems. While driving I want to avoid that even more than snow.

  6. According to Barry, a widespread 1-3” snowfall for Tuesday. I assume courtesy of the Euro? 🙂

    Logan’s latest inch: Valentine’s day 2007.

    1. He doesn’t always go with the Euro directly, but it is his favorite medium range model. Harvey also favors it. The majority of times they are making a wise choice, but if you blindly follow it then that’s not good. They both know better. 🙂

      I do think a widespread coating to 1 inch is more likely, with amounts over 1 inch being the exception rather than the rule.

  9. Storm glass has crystals at the top which means wind and the glass is somewhat cloudy which means cloudy and possible precip.

    And now up to 0.67 rain in Sutton with drizzle.

    1. All of the daily discussions are very, very good ……. today’s is outstanding !!! The current pattern is so well explained, with all the factors identified. And as always, so easy to understand.

  11. Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles.

    Probably an 0-4 or 1-3 prediction here.

    Hope I’m wrong on Colts. I’d like to see Pats play Texans. Texans with tough D, but many injuries on offense. Double team Hopkins and have a linebacker stay back to guard agInst Deshawn Watson from running out of the pocket and I think you can contain houston’s offense pretty well.

  12. As always thanks TK.

    The system coming up Tuesday had people messaging me asking about it because the wunderground app on thursday said something about nine inches of snow. Once more I had to tell them that any forecasting app’s prediction almost a week out would be the equivalent of a rip and reader meteorologist. Thankfully my friends trust me enough and of course by friday afternoon the app was predicting less than an inch.

  13. My picks. The underdog Colts and Chargers will win the game out right. Cowboys will win cover the spread and Bears win the game but will not cover the spread.

  14. JJ…
    Wildcard weekend predictions by TK are easy-peasy this year.
    All 4 games will be won by the hosting team: Texans, Cowboys, Ravens, Bears.

  17. seems like there is some heavy rain developing in northern Connecticut expanding east ward. Unless those are sleet signatures, it looks like it’s going to pour mass pike southward. Like TK alluded to in his discussion.

  18. I see the ECMWF continues to do the same thing, over-amplifying southern stream features. At least it’s consistent in this pattern. 😉

  19. We are at 1.17 inch rain

    For pats….the Texans would be nice but they should be able to win against any team to be the best.

    Ok…I’ll duck now 🙂

  20. The euro shows to continue the theme, like others have been pointing out, but also something that I feel has been another theme, the storms are not getting together until they are passed our latitude and unfortunately I see no real stop to it. Nothing is extremely favorable.

  21. Today is one of the rare cases where it actually makes sense to say “imagine if this was snow.” Because usually it would be in this situation. Impressive banding structures and some solid precip rates, along with some convection, with this offshore Nor’easter today.

  22. Reading Tom’s comment from above regarding the discussion here and how the pattern is so well explained and done so in a manner that is so easy to understand, I couldn’t help but think of the contrast to yesterday’s morning discussion out of Norton.

    Regarding Tuesday’s system which at the time of that writing was 96 hours away; The forecaster was writing about net secondary low development with ascent through the dendritic snow growth zone as cold air hangs firm. Then my favorite – referencing the CIPS analogs support for highest accumulations over NW MA and CT. That is not analogs, that is applied climatology. The rest is someone trying to be the smartest guy in the room and trying to get too specific with all the reasons it could snow, which is most likely the outcome the forecaster wanted.

    It could have been done so much simpler at 96 hours. A progressive system of pacific origin will approach the region Monday night or early Tuesday. Temperatures should be cold enough in most location to support snow at the onset except the south coast where a mix is likely at the start. An approaching warm front should change the precipitation to rain from south and east to north and west. There is the potential that the snow could have a light to moderate impact on the Tuesday morning commute in some areas. Done in four sentences.

    I think there is a lot at work here. 1) So many meteorologists are less and less interested in all kinds of weather and the evolution of diverse patterns whose broad divergence is what makes up our climatic averages. Instead they are storm and winter weather enthusiasts. 2) This lack of interest in divergent patterns has led them to lack understanding of what are reasonable outcomes within a particular pattern. So they rely on model output then bury their minimal understanding and curiosity into layers and layers of weather terms from met school that blur their ignorance while cheering on the outcome they want.

    I can assure you there was nothing about Tuesday’s system that supported rapid secondary low development then a slowing of the system and the cold air being able to hold firm.

    As for 12/14, the ECWMF is over amping it, but has shifted from 12z yesterday to more SE and it will continue to do that and what we could end up with is two separate systems. Northern stream pacific energy that will traverse central and northern NE and a southern system that could have some influence on the weather in southern and eastern areas of NE.

    I know each of you are aware of how lucky we are to have access to TK’s intelligence and intuition and his plain spoken translations of all weather.

    1. Extremely lucky regarding the Tk comment as well as yourself & other talented folks on this page .

    2. Very nicely stated JMA and thank you so much for that post.

      We all are so very lucky to have this forum. TK has done an outstanding job and continues to do so.

  23. Thank you, JMA, for your input.

    Today was dismal. Cold, steady rain. I’m glad to be indoors after running some errands this afternoon and getting fairly soaked. Along with the raw wind that made for quite an April-like rain storm.

    I do hope the other wildcard games are better than the first one. I just turned off this one-sided affair. My picks were Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, and Ravens. So much for the first pick. The Texans are doing their usual post-season evaporating act. Gotta feel for the Houston fans who paid big bucks to attend this bust of a game. Romeo Crennel’s had better days. The defensive play-calling has been extremely poor.

    1. My wife has predicted that The Patriots next opponent will be the Ravens.
      One piece of the puzzle is almost in place. 😀

        1. I didn’t say either She or I wanted that. She simply stated that she thought that our opponent would be the Ravens.

          FWIW, I agree with you 100% AND the Ravens HAVE beaten us here before.

  24. I wouldn’t mind the Cowboys blowing out the Seahawks and have a laugher but I think that is high unlikely.

  25. 0.61 inch in the bucket so far today and it is still raining, although not as hard as a while ago.

  26. Tom, JMA, and others as well, thank you for some very nice comments!

    I’m just catching up now. Was mixing a few errands with a little taking it easy time today. Actually watched a movie this afternoon. Rare. Currently watching the Rose Parade on DVR with my mom. 🙂 Bruins up next!

  27. It was a state-record -35 degrees this date 115 years ago in Taunton.
    That must have been brutal back then.

    It has been pouring down here since 4 pm.

    Colts look impressive. Ravens defense tenacious.

  28. the KC and Colts game would be a really good game, I feel like the colts are to be honest one of the teams that can beat KC. Now in terms of the patriots I am not sure who would be better the ravens or Chargers both have running attacks but I am thinking maybe Chargers. If the Chargers do win against the patriots. I would be cheering for them as I truly believe Rivers is one of those QBs that deserve to be in the big game and get a ring.

    1. Agree, Matt. Colts are perhaps the hottest team in the NFL. Although Luck can throw picks, I would trust him more than Mahomes. I’d pick the Colts over KC next week. Part of my thinking is Andy Reid’s ineptitude, but also the deplorable KC defense.

      1. If I am not mistaken, Chargers were 7-1 on the road this season so coming to Gillette is unlikely going to intimidate them in any way.

        The Texans were really the only team that was automatically beatable. Today’s game proved that. 😉

  29. The most impressive road win by the Chargers going into KC and winning. They were down two touchdowns in that game. The other one I would say coming back from 16 points down in Pittsburgh to win.

  30. Thanks North.
    I am enjoying this win even there were times it was frustrating and agonizing. Dak made the play on that 3 and 14 run for a first down which led to a touchdown a play later. No matter what happens next game great season in my opinion win 10 games the NFC East and a playoff game.

  31. When the Cowboys were 3-5 after that bad loss on Monday Night Football against the Titans I was not thinking playoffs. They went out got Amari Cooper and have lost one game since.

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