Tuesday Forecast

85 Comments

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)
No big changes in the overall idea about the weather in the coming few days. First we have the double-barrel but relatively minor system coming through today with its snow of minor accumulation ending as rain showers, and tomorrow’s slightly more potent developing system, passing just north of southern New England, bringing a period of rain and then snow showers and wind on its back side as colder air returns. What you will very much notice, previewed yesterday morning, is some very cold air moving in during Thursday on a gusty wind, and hanging around into the coming weekend, with mainly dry weather. Although Saturday we’ll have to watch the wind as it may turn onshore and bring a fair amount of cloudiness and even the potential for a few snow showers, while at the same time some higher cloudiness comes across from a mid level disturbance passing by.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and freezing drizzle with additional accumulation of under 1 inch but a few icy patches during this morning. Scattered rain showers midday and early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns west to east but may be mixed with snow southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers changing to snow showers with minor accumulation possible. Highs 38-45 morning, falling to the middle to lower 30s afternoon. Wind SW to W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 26-31. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 10s to middle 20s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers, favoring the coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s except lower 30s Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)
A storm system is expected to pass south of the region Sunday January 13, far enough to keep its snow shield away but close enough to possibly bring additional ocean effect snow showers to Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore with a higher chance of dry weather elsewhere, and quite cold. The early to mid portion of next week should be generally dry with temperatures near to below normal as we see a slight recovery from the coldest air but no big push of mild air as we’ll be between the subtropical jet to the south and polar jet just to the north.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-22)
The trend for this period is now for the overall pattern to be fairly dry and on the seasonable to slightly colder than average side from the pattern described just above. But again with recent poor performance of guidance and less than totally dependable teleconnections in trying to predict medium range, I say this with low to moderate confidence.

85 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. The last several runs of the GFS tell the story of why that model is currently useless. That isn’t guidance. It’s computerized randomness. Can only hope the issues causing it can be remedied soon.

  3. TK – Any chance that Logan sees its first inch this weekend or just the usual coating more likely?

    1. How is Sunday tricky?

      Storm well off shore to the South.

      Is it the “possibility” of ocean effect snow that makes it tricky???

      2. Harveys tweet was last night. There was a bit more uncertainty at the time. However this morning they still have the “flurries or snow?” On sunday.

          1. Yesterday morning it said “storm south” and had a sunny picture with a cloud meaning nothing for boston.

  5. Ryan Maue weighed in about the washington post article re GFS modeling and government shutdown:

    “Whoa, this is a serious claim/charge made by a NOAA modeling center employee (on furlough) that the global weather model performance has suffered greatly by the gov’t shutdown.

    I do not find evidence (as of yet) for this claim in my verification statistics for the NOAA global weather model — as compared to other agencies systems (European, Canadian, UKMET).

    The NOAA model has always been a second rate & 3rd place model.

    Over the past 30-days (and 180-days) — now taking into account the period of the gov’t shutdown, the U.S. global model skill (as well as the expected replacement model due in February) shows consistent skill in comparison to European (king of weather models)”

    Thoughts?

    1. Mr. Maue is a highly educated very intelligent man and knows of what he speaks, so perhaps he is correct???
      Also, it could very well be that the NOAA employee was mega pissed about not getting paid and decided to make that statement (true or false).

      So, who the hell knows for sure.

    2. The GFS and replacement model (FV3) has shown “consistent skill”?? LOL. Perhaps you could argue the regular GFS has had decent stretches but the FV3 has been a complete train wreck.

      1. Hmm, I go over to the NWS site and get my info there. Perhaps they are having a problem there. I will try using what you use. Thanks.

    1. SAK, JMA, WxW and myself have been trumpeting the info about these models. And there are no changes at this time.

    1. The weather these days no longer follow the rules of the calendar. It wouldn’t shock me if one of these days there will be a blizzard on Memorial Day weekend.

      1. I have been waiting a looooong time for that.

        Once way back there was a cold system on Memorial Day.
        850 mb temps were plenty cold enough. Just didn’t have
        enough time to cool down to the surface to flip the rain to snow.

        Mighty cold rain that day.

      2. How is this not following the calendar. I’ve been saying for quite a while but one of my analogs is 1979-1980 among other Winters. We’ve seen things like this happened many times.

        It’s not like we’re having a blowtorch warm winter. We’re having a winter so far that reflects the large-scale indices. To me it’s been pretty straightforward. The uncertainties have been in two places: the mjo and model performance.

    2. The correct term is “unusual” for January. I wouldn’t call it strange as it is a direct response to the weather system that is ongoing which in itself is not very abnormal for this time of year.

  13. Additional snowy pictures from Europe.

    This one from the Ukraine of a “Snownado”…
    https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1082544292567105542

    And a beautiful snowy scene from the town of Zell an See, Austria…
    https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1082436364719804416

    It’s even snowing in Athens, Greece!
    https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1082432097753681925

    More snow forecast in many of these places this week. I’m buying my plane tickets….

  14. 12z GFS ensemble mean is stronger and further NW with the Sunday storm. There are many members close to the coast:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019010812/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_23.png

    Still too early to write off a bigger impact from this storm. How often have we seen the models show something bigger at day 6, 7, or 8, only to lose it in the mid range and then bring it back at day 3/4?

    The northern stream energy doesnt seem to be a player anymore so I don’t see the phased monster coming back but the developing southern stream system could deliver us a moderate (or perhaps significant?) impact on its own with the right track.

  15. I still am not sold on any outcome for Sunday.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2019010812&fh=132 (I have another service that I go through to look at the gfs ensembles but they never seem to work on here so I just break it down)
    GFS ensemble spread
    outside bench mark. Miss; 9
    outside bench mark 4
    bench mark 2
    within bench mark 4
    with that said the Canadian operational is further north than many of the ensemble runs with the ensemble runs in general in better agreement but the operational is more inline with what the gfs ensembles are showing.
    EURO is coming in now. Again I would say we have to wait until Thursday to get a better handle on this possible system.

  16. Couple of my post today have been voice text it’s or if there are any grammar mistakes oops. 😉

    1. I will just assume all posts from you are voice text and that any spelling or grammar mistakes are to be blamed on the GFS-FV3.

  17. 12z Euro is still a swing and a miss but it did come north and looks a bit better than the 0z run. Still has a ways to go. I’ll be interested to see the ensembles.

  19. The 12z euro got a burst of energy from the northern plains which expands the snow field into the ohio river valley just for it to get suppressed to the mid-atlantic and out to sea.

    1. That’s not 12z, it is the 6z.

      The 12z hasn’t even come out. Guess the person pushing the buttons got furloughed?

      1. Ahhh crap. Thanks for pointing it out. I just though it was late enough and pulled what was there.

  23. From HM

    ECMWF decided it wanted to play in the snow game too. GFS may have a big hit over the ECMWF with the snow.

      1. Perhaps as it progresses Eastward, those winds will relax or move to the East, allowing the system to come up.

        With our luck, it will overdue it and come up here
        as an INSIDE RUNNER)(!@&#*&!&@#!&@#*!@#&!

        however, suppressed seems more likely at this time.

      2. Don’t focus on the surface. Look at the upper levels and the shortwave that actually results in the flatter flow for an eastward track. That snowfall existing that far north does not mean it automatically advects as-is east northeast to get us. It would never make it through the high pressure and super dry air that will be over this area by then, if that is indeed the correct scenario. We would likely get some mid level cloudiness from a disturbance and ocean-effect clouds and possible snow showers if the wind flow is correct.

  25. euro ensemble break down
    outside bench mark miss: 15
    outside bench mark : 12
    bench mark: 9
    inside bench mark: 3
    other: 11

    other section consists of it being a broad elongated system along a boundary/bench mark storm but precip won’t make it up, or a weak broad area of snow showers. As you can see wide variety of outcomes.

  26. So the FV3-GFS is SO freakin bad, they decided to skip the 12Z run?????
    Maybe they burned the code? trashed the whole damn thing?

  29. Squall line (or maybe pseudo-squall line) moving in here in the Philly area. Been an active day of severe weather in parts of the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic region, though these storms now are well below severe limits. A number of hail reports and a confirmed EF-1 tornado in Cortland, OH earlier in the day with multiple rounds of storms. A rumble of thunder will be possible in SNE tonight as well. Instability aloft with a very energetic disturbance moving through and leading to rapid cyclogenesis. We typically get at least 1-2 events like this every winter (i.e. 12/25/17). The tornado and other severe weather were pretty unusual though.

    1. I think the case of that tornado is similar to a lot of cases we’ve seen around here. Many of these things in the past went undetected or labeled as a “wind event” and not a tornado.

  30. the storm looks more and more likely that it will be suppressed south, if its going south, I rather it be rain for them, I hate mid-atlantic snow.

    1. We’re about to enter the pattern that starts to give portions of the Mid Atlantic their above average snow winter.

      I’m indifferent. I couldn’t care less if they get nailed or not. Weather is weather. 🙂 I’ve always been a fan of cold/dry patterns up here.

      1. I can deal with cold and dry since the ski areas can maintain snow pack but to see it in the mid-atlantic stinks.

    1. We’ve done it before and will again. It wasn’t because of some anomalous warm air mass. It was anomalous cold air aloft.

  32. 00z GFS is a mix of suppression depression and clipper/cold front passages. A cold and dry pattern for sure. Guess it’s better than the warm and wet we have been having.

  33. Squall line moving through SW and coastal CT. Many reports of heavy rain, loud thunder and some small hail.

    1. This will never happen. Only because I look at it from this perspective. if the storm actually happened it means the model predicted the storm 11 days in advance and we very rarely see that in any model, yet alone the gfs.. This is how I look at it LOL. It’s better off not showing anything.

Comments are closed.