Saturday Forecast

116 Comments

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)
Arctic high pressure makes the weekend cold but keeps a storm south of the region. We will only see some cloudiness from it especially later today and early Sunday as it passes by. A few ocean-effect snow showers cannot be ruled out for Cape Cod and maybe even the South Shore later Sunday and Cape Cod to as far west as southern RI by early Monday. High pressure shifts into the Ohio Valley and allows slight temperature moderation from Monday to Wednesday, but by late Wednesday another arctic cold front will be coming out of Canada and heading into the region…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except some clouds and snow showers possible Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore. Lows 8-15. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod to southern RI especially early. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming light variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)
Dry and cold January 17. Weak system from the west may produce light snow/mix January 18, not quite as cold. A little uncertainty on the January 19-21 MLK Jr Weekend as a system is likely to pass through the region with unsettled weather at some point, but at this point a case can be made for a low center either passing through the Great Lakes for a milder shot of air then rain showers ending as snow showers as colder air returns, or a quicker return of cold and a system being pushed further to the south and missing the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)
Cold/dry start to this period but the threat of some wintry weather may increase before it’s over.

116 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Can’t wait for your football picks. Hopefully some love for my Cowboys as I want to see a NFC Championship appearance for the first time in 24 years.
    Colts with the points, Cowboys with the points but I feel they could run on the Rams defense and could win the game outright if the running game is gets going and the defense could play like it did against the Saints, Pats cover the spread, and I may get burned here but I think the Saints cover the spread.

  3. Today’s games will be won by the road teams (Indy, Dallas).
    Sunday’s games will be won by the home teams (New England, New Orleans).

    The 2 main reasons the Pats win: Temperature. Playoff experience.

    1. Colts , Dallas , No & I’ll say the pats reluctantly. Believe me I want them to win obviously but LA is a dangerous team with exceptional talent & a true warrior on the road where there play rises to a different level . I think the one up in the pats favor is the very cold air .

  4. I am hoping your prediction TK for the Cowboys is right. Its been almost a quarter century since I have seen this team play in a championship game.

    1. If they win this weekend I am not sure I’ll be able to pick them again next. But one game at a time.

    2. And I think my predictions last week were so bad that the Cowboys are the only team I picked correctly……………

  5. According to Barry, snow next weekend and more stormy times thereafter? 🙂

    Barry also believes above normal snowfall in spite of the late start and that history says otherwise. A tough haul on a cold/dry pattern with intermittent cutters imo.

      1. Love Barry, but I must say I will believe it when I see it. And, I don’t see it right now. The trend has been for models to predict snow about 7 days out, only to see the storms either suppressed, evaporate, or cut inside as the events get closer.

        1. Even getting halfway to Logan’s normal (22”) is going to be quite a challenge. I don’t know what Barry sees ahead.

          2. It’s not that hard Philip all we need is a few good size storms . I believe it was after 1/23 we had barely know snow than got over a hundred the month of February. Everybody thinks winter is over when in fact it’s still under a month old lol. Patience it’s coming soon

  6. Thank you, TK.

    If it rains MLK weekend I will be disappointed, but not surprised. Timing is everything. It’s been cold enough at times for snow, but the storms have been suppressed. And then because of the positioning of the low pressure areas, either west of us or traversing the region it rains or is a mixed bag.

    Wouldn’t it be something if the grand total of snow at Logan remained under 1 inch, just 4 years after record-breaking snows.

    Driving around yesterday it was weird to see snowplows on trucks. I understand why the snowplows have been attached to the trucks. But, I was also thinking the snowplows won’t be needed any time soon, or maybe ever this winter season.

    My predictions for this weekend: Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles.

    I’ve been wavering on the Chargers and Patriots. I think it’ll be a very close game.

    Defense is going to continue its `comeback.’ Points scored had already been decreasing significantly during the last 6 games of the season. That trend continued in the first round of the playoffs, and will continue in the second round.

  7. Just arrived at Killington. Winter wonderland up here! Temp 0F but thankfully not too windy. I’ll try and post some pictures later.

  9. Did Logan’s 0.2 inches all come in November? I thought then it was 0.1
    and the extra 0.1 came on 12/18????

  11. I post the following thread from this blog on this date in 2015…and we all know what happened that….

    JimmyJames says:
    January 12, 2015 at 11:28 AM
    Four years ago on this date we were wrapping up a Noreaster that started on the evening of the 11th. It produced the biggest snowfall for inland CT with 24 inches of snow. This was all part of that 6 week stretch which was storm after storm. Its amazing how much snow fell in that stretch.
    Old Salty says:
    January 12, 2015 at 11:47 AM
    We won’t see that again any time soon.
    John says:
    January 12, 2015 at 11:55 AM
    You don’t know that for sure. I’m betting you’ll be happy by the end of next month
    Old Salty says:
    January 12, 2015 at 12:09 PM
    I seriously doubt it. And I DO mean that.

  13. Just a little thought on the threat for the end of next week…

    Peeking at the 12z GFS run makes me see how the threat for next Sunday can end up further south than currently shown. I have noticed a model bias lately to miss the strength of the northern jet stream initially. at the same time when there are systems in the southern stream coming along they are tending to close off more quickly than forecast. In reality when things take place the track of the southern systems is further east as we are seeing this weekend. You’re starting to see a slight trend toward this even on today’s run even though I don’t think it is fully corrected yet. Several more runs and it may have a better idea of how I think this may play out.

    1. And for emphasis, you doubled your comment. 😀

      Just a little thought on the threat for the end of next week…

      Just a little thought on the threat for the end of next week…

      And once I posted the snow totals, I was waiting for a comment similar to the
      one just posted. As I said, is the model to be trusted?????

      In this case, I hope you are incorrect.

          1. The way things have been going for us so far, that scenario has just as good a chance of verifying as any other. Good one, Dr. S! 😀

  18. 12z Euro heads yet a bit further southeast on MLK weekend.

    Weather world tweets soon to identify early March as when the snows will arrive. 🙂 🙂

  19. KC-colts game could be the snow game of the playoffs. I would use to say that would of been good for the colts but they are not a dome team. Rams game looks to be raining. Patriots cold.

        1. Kansas City, Kansas City Downtown Airport, MO
          (KMKC) 39.12083N 94.59694W
          2 Day History

          Last Updated: Jan 12 2019, 12:54 pm CST
          Sat, 12 Jan 2019 12:54:00 -0600
          Weather: Snow Freezing Fog
          Thanks

          Current KC weather

          Temperature: 31.0 °F (-0.6 °C)
          Dewpoint: 28.0 °F (-2.2 °C)
          Relative Humidity: 89 %
          Wind: North at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)
          Wind Chill: 22 F (-6 C)
          Visibility: 0.50 miles
          MSL Pressure: 1018.2 mb
          Altimeter: 30.05 in Hg

      1. One thing that is a little odd about the fv3 gfs is that its showing sleet while temperatures are really cold. Like teens cold
        This is surface map for hour 210

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011212&fh=210

        And this is Temperature for hour 210

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019011212&fh=210

        I know it can sleet at below freezing but even at 10 to 15 degrees? Western mass has single digits yet still showing ice/sleet.

        1. Especially for central and western mass. I can see it sleeping for southeastern mass and along the clost

            1. Matt I know but maybe the surface temperature that is showing is off. Or the temperature below 850 are off. I dont think its possible that it can be above 32 above surface and 6 degrees at surface. Maybe the algorithm is wrong in that model

              1. No, very very very possible. I’ve seen it a gazillion times.

                I can remember a sleet while in High school. Temps were in the teens, yet no snow, only sleet.

                1. Thanks for all your input!! Well if its gonna sleet and be freezing rain then I hope the storm misses us

        3. One thing you are forgetting is the temperatures above
          the surface.

          Here is the 925 MB temp map at hour 210. This is “about” 2500 feet.

          http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019011212/210/925th.us_ne.png

          Here is the 850mb temp map (about 5,000 feet)

          http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019011212/210/850th.us_ne.png

          You will note on this map that the temps at 850 mb are above freezing well inland. Thus, the snow comes through that layer and melts and then freezes into
          sleet in the colder layer near the surface.

          If you look closer at the 925 mb map, you will see areas above freezing closer to the coast.
          In this area, the surface map show freezing rain and not
          sleet. This is because the cold layer is not thick enough
          thus not enough time to freeze into sleet, so it freezes
          on surface contact.

          2. Yea you’re right jpdave. I just didnt think it would be that much of a margin between surface and 850/950. Never seen it before.

  26. The model analysis shows it, TK and JMA have hammered it home.
    The likely scenario for next weekend is suppression city.

    I guess we can hope and watch. Nothing is etched in stone just yet, but I would not
    count on snow for the weekend.

  27. As a drastic example of surface vs. above the surface temperatures…

    I cannot recall the year but I do recall the state was New York and that the observation confirmed as true was freezing rain with a surface temperature below 0F.

  30. I know what the euro operational has shown, but how about the ensemble spread. the majority brings it inside, there is not many that send it outside the bench mark. This though will likely change.
    EURO break down
    Inside runner 19
    inside bench mark 6
    bench mark 6
    outside bench mark 2
    other 12
    EPS city chart shows any where from 4 to 16 inches for my area by Monday favoring 5 inches.
    GFS spread
    insider runner 7
    inside bench mark 5
    bench mark 2
    outside bench mark 2
    other 3
    When i mean other, it means a frontal elongated systems, or a mix of two systems some of which goes over us, and has a variety of impacts.

  31. Two interesting links to share today. The first is a video (~10 minutes long) of a continuous nationwide radar loop for every day in 2018. It’s very fun to watch, and not hard to see how 2018 became one of our wettest years. The Jan 4 blizzard, March snowstorms, and summer hurricanes stand out well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPuDPxK88g0

    The second is a great write-up from Mike Iacono at Blue Hill Observatory which reviews the 2018 numbers for the Observatory, very well written with some interesting stats. A very informative graphic accompanies it as well. Mike is a phenomenal scientist who I’ve been fortunate to work alongside.

    http://bluehill.org/observatory/2019/01/2018-was-the-third-wettest-year-on-record/

  32. Ok, so there is time left, but as of this moment, KC looks mighty good.
    If the Pats win tomorrow and have to travel to KC next week, they are in TROUBLE!
    Could they win? Sure? likely? Hardly.
    But, first they have to take care of business tomorrow.

      2. The ICON model had Indy with a second half comeback.

        The CMC predicts an EF-5 snownado and the game never finishes.

    2. Patriots would get embarrassed in KC. Obviously want to see them win tomorrow but that will come with a sobering reality about five minutes after the end of the game

        1. KC’s defense isn’t nearly as good as it appeared today. Plus, the Patriots are physically a better team than the Colts. For example, Edelman is a much more physical player than, say, Hilton. Hilton is better overall, but he’s as soft a wide-receiver as there is. Same thing applies to their entire receiving corps. And really the same can be said for the Colts’ running attack. On top of all that, the Patriots have a superior QB in terms of decision-making (superior to Luck, that is). So, if the Patriots make it past the Chargers, I think they’ll mount a much better offensive challenge than the Colts. Problem will be stopping the Chiefs’ high-octane offense. It is too good and too dynamic.

          1. Patriots defense can match up well. Especially with hunt no longer there, peace and their receivers can get more attention

  33. Colts did not show up, except for their special team. Luck has been downright awful. In fact, I can assure you that Brady would not be that bad, ever, in any game, even if he were 77 years old.

  34. Stuff about the playoffs.
    I feel like the game of the patriots and chargers will be close.
    If the Patriots win it goes to KC
    If the Chargers win it would go to the Chargers I believe.
    Chargers I think has the best chance of winning against who ever the NFC team is.
    If the patriots go to the chiefs it will not be as one sided as this. The KC chiefs will not shut out the offense of the patriots like they have the Colts even at KC
    KC would loose in the superbowl if they make it. If the patriots do not make it unlike my usual hope for the team that kicks the patriots out from contention I would hope for the chargers to go all the way and win as I really do feel like Rivers deserves that ring.

    1. also I feel like the patriots defense is much more disciplined, you might not see as many sacks as the colts but you will get alot less outside the pocket play by Mahomes. They also don’t have Hunt.

  35. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz (which I got wrong)

    Which is not the name of a real town?

    A. Snowflake, AZ
    B. Hurricane, UT
    C. Frostproof, FL
    D. weathervane, VT

    Answer later tonight or early tomorrow.

  36. Not gonna lose any sleep over it, and I hope I’m wrong, but I’m fairly confident the Pats season will end tomorrow. This is the same team that was routed by Jacksonville, Detroit, and Tennessee. Maybe a little more refined, but the same DNA. And the Chargers are good. The Pats have very seldom looked like a team anyone would be afraid to face, and the Chargers certainly won’t be. Times have changed.

    The Chiefs are good too, especially at Arrowhead, but they’re being made to look better by the Colts, who are not good, at all. A game against them on the road would be only a little more difficult than what tomorrow’s game will be. So if the Pats do find a way tomorrow, they’ll be competitive next week too.

    2. Exactly my thoughts, WxW. I heard some of an interview with Brady repeated today. He said something to the effect that they’d do the best with what they have. I cannot find it anywhere to cite which is not my usual style. But if it is true, I was not impressed as it is his job to rally his team. They may well win. But attitude is a good portion of the game. We will have to see which Brady shows up. And if they win….awesome. If they lose….I can’t imgine anyone could fault the nearly two decades they have given this town. I will be proud no matted the outcome.

    3. I agree with everything WX. Pats need everything to go right . Home field here I believe is out the window when you have a team like LA coming in

  37. Domed teams like the Colts do not play well outdoors in the cold…PERIOD!!!!

    How many playoff games did Peyton Manning win in January at Gillette? 😉

  38. Pats will win tomorrow. Anyone who said Chargers will be to blame if the Pats lose. I’ve written down your names.

    1. Note I never said they would lose or win. I don’t do that. I just said I’ll love them no matter what they do

  39. Of course I was wrong about both games yesterday… 😉

    I’m not wrong about this though: New post!

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