Monday Forecast

165 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)
High pressure relaxes control of the weather as the center shifts southwestward into the Ohio Valley during the next 3 days. First, this will bring an end to the ocean effect snow shower threat for the coast of MA today and also allow the cold to ease somewhat into midweek. In fact, by Wednesday, a westerly breeze will bring somewhat milder air into the region, and some areas may reach or exceed 40. But that won’t past because an arctic cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night and put us right back into the cold air for Thursday. However a push of slightly milder air will return from the west along with a weak low pressure area Friday, bringing a precipitation threat with it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers eastern MA coast and Cape Cod to southern RI especially early, with additional minor accumulation possible. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming N.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late in the day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Temperatures rise into the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)
Watching the weekend of January 19-20 for a storm threat but this system may end up passing largely south of the region despite what recent and current model guidance says. Will work on details in the next few days. Mainly dry and cold thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)
May have another passing system with rain/mix/snow about mid period but highly uncertain. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

165 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

      1. I agree.

        We’ve seen so much change this cold season in the 7 to 10 day outlook vs what actually ends up happening, that I have a hard time believing there won’t be significant changes to this scenario 7 days from now.

      2. Could be but a week out it’s hard to say with complete confidence the outcome. The tv Mets seemed to have made up there mind . We are due so we wait

      3. I think I just burst out laughing at the derail comment / imagery in my head…I am a bit twisted. Work calls…I shall check in again at some point over the next 48 hours.

        1. Ch. 7 showed a model with a cutter for Sunday with a quick snow to mostly rain. Logan is still waiting for its first inch.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Note the trend on the GFS for a more positively tilted trough for the weekend system. IMO, if that continues, it favors the more suppressed solution that TK and I are both leaning towards. Suppressed at least relative to the current consensus.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Interesting that the 0Z Euro instead of being more suppressed, actually is a bit more
    North, introducing a crap load of SLEET into the Boston Area. Yes, I know far
    from the final solution….

    Here is the snow map (it is adjusted for sleet and it shows on the map)

    https://imgur.com/a/87E1xmo

    Last evening Barry seemed pretty excited and predicted Wintry Weather ahead.
    He said possible significant snow/sleet for this weekend. He did, however, add:
    IF the storm materializes. Happy he put that in there at least.

      1. Thanks Dr. S! A warm climate or dome team wouldn’t have a prayer on Sunday. At least the Patriots are from cold climes and do have a fighting chance at least.

  9. This may not be a fair question or one that cannot be answered–but I’m curious who those on the board using applied meteorology and thinking that the weekend system may end up suppressed south–at what timeframe do you start rethinking that if the models continue to show a more northerly/impactful solution?

    1. I think it has more to do with that we have several pieces of a puzzle and that there is a system on Friday that could be more impactful. Until we get through Friday we will not have a good handle on what happens after. Also the operational models been moving around, but the ensemble means have all stayed rather steady around the Bench Mark so there is a wide amount of solutions and with the way this winter has been going the trend can be your friend.

      1. There is a strong high in southeastern Canada. Wouldn’t that stop the low from moving more north? Never really understood the algorithm of these little details

    1. When was the last time this model got something right before any other model in advance? Watch it be right this time lol

  12. Tk to your comment from 2 days ago about how cold it can be and yet not snowing. I think it was actually NYC that broke that record. It was 0f and freezing rain or sleet. I remember reading about it somewhere. Regardless its interesting

  16. And here we go….bring it on!!

    John Homenuk‏ @jhomenuk · 24m24 minutes ago

    Probably the most impressive GEFS run of the winter so far. The pattern progression – with ridging building to an apex in the higher latitude EPO, AO, and NAO regions – suggests a prolonged period of cold & wintry weather is on the way in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Eastern US.

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1084869052932259841

  20. I agree John, this one’s unlikely to miss. Sensible impacts remain to be seen but Sunday looks like a mess one way or another.

  21. I’m going to guess that snow enthusiasts won’t like the Euro op run panel 144 hrs.

    Northern stream 500 mb disturbance looks more potent and further west, in central Canada.

    Going to guess at a further west phase btwn the 2 jets .. let’s see …..

      1. With all this said, I’m not taking anything too serious about next Sunday til about Thursday or Friday of this week.

  23. 12z Euro is similar to the 0z with respect to the low track but the 850mb line and 0C lines are a bit further north in SNE at 144 hours. Still delivering very heavy precipitation rates. This scenario would be heavy snow to heavy sleet/ice to heavy rain for most of us.

  24. It’s interesting on the Euro.

    Next weekend scenario isn’t coming across as one large coastal event that intensifies and heads into into the maritimes.

    It’s almost like a sagging cold front with multiple waves of low pressure. You can see this at hr 168 with the front now east and southeast of New England and more waves of low pressure on it.

    I kind of take this as a potential, initial red flag for a big snowfall event.

    1. I agree, I don’t ever recall seeing widespread big snow totals occur with a setup like this. But the models are seeing something and they are all pumping out a LOT of precip.

    2. Tom I noticed that. The low is barely below 1000. I always wondered how some low pressure systems produce a lot of snow even thought they are only 998 to 1000 pressure. Like the Carolina storm last month. Maybe this is a long event? Like you said there is no sudden intensification and that’s how heavy precip usually occurs

      1. It will be interesting to see if this theme continues in projections the next 72 hrs.

        It’s 144-168 hrs out and the models are already spreading out the energy, so to speak.

        1. Strength-wise, like Superman.

          But I’m congested in my head and chest. Everything I read on-line matches to bronchitis.

          I just put in for tomorrow. I really hope I can return to school Wednesday.

      1. You have F5 weather as well right? Not sure. I was zoomed in on the northeast region maps and refreshing those.

  26. Here is the 12z Euro precip. type map at 1PM Sunday:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_01/IMG_1887.PNG.b2279b89354a94632c4a29837252ffc8.PNG

    Lots of freezing rain and sleet in there!

    Check out these RIDICULOUS ice totals. 1-2″ of precip falling as freezing rain in the NYC-BOS corridor. Actually 2.4″ of freezing rain in Hartford! Even if half of that accrued on surfaces, that would be a crippling ice storm!

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_01/IMG_1889.PNG.d4535f3dc62a18d51d1c43626febd3f3.PNG

    1. Keep in mind of course the Euro is probably way amped up on the precip. output as it often is at this range.

    2. YIKES!!! HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!!

      Tomorrow’s run will have snow and the next day suppressed with Nothing.
      We shall see.

      Fun times!

  27. If this ends up a series of strung out lows tracking to our southeast, I would find it hard to believe many of us warm up enough for all rain with that cold air mass pressing down from the NW. This would be a setup for a mainly frozen storm and the Euro is probably downplaying the amount of sleet involved.

    2. Isnt it near neutral right now and not showing any sign of going deeply into any particular phase? I would think this is not a major player right now.

  31. Precipitation amount is not directly related to the strength of the center of low pressure.

    Some of the greatest rainfall events of all time and even some of the greatest snowfall events of all time have occurred without strong low pressure. Some of them have occurred with no low pressure nearby.

      1. Southwest flow events, predecessor rain events, stalled stationary fronts overhead, lake effect snows, upslope snows would be a few situations where this might occur.

  32. I can think of some SWFE’s we have had over time with a lot of overrunning moisture streamlining in from the Ohio Valley and no real defined low pressure center involved. I can recall getting just shy of a foot of snow from one them in the Hartford area back in the mid 2000’s. Cant recall any however that resulted in widespread 1-2 feet plus of snow. Typically don’t see that without a strong coastal storm.

  33. Thank you, TK.

    Philip, thanks for sharing the 1921 photo of Needham, MA after the ice storm. I lived in Needham from 1971 to 1974. As I recall, there was a significant ice storm in January of 1972 or 1973. Closed schools for 2 or 3 days. We lived in an out-of-the-way part of town and could not get out of our cul-de-sac (Wilson Lane) to go into town for grocery shopping, at least not by car. The second day after the storm my mother gave me and my sister a shopping list and told us to walk to Roche Bros., towing a toboggan. In hindsight, a somewhat dangerous decision. But, we made it.

    1. Thanks but that was from Mark. 😉

      I do seem to recall the 1972 or 1973 ice as well. Not certain of the exact year either. 🙂

  36. This is Noaa’s forecast for Billerica for Saturday through Sunday night

    Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 27. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
    Saturday Night Snow. Low around 20. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
    Sunday Freezing rain and sleet. High near 29. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
    Sunday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
    If what some of the models are showing are correct its going to be one heck of a front end snow dump followed by one heck of a sleet storm.

        1. Sometimes those are model-generated, other times there is a forecast “grid” made up and it pulls from that. I’m not really a fan of the point forecast, to be honest. It’s too specific for times too far in the future. People lock those #’s in. Ranges and approximations in the zone forecasts are much better.

  37. I like this line from the NWS write-up….”To put it
    simply, would not expect deterministic forecast models to coalesce
    and corroborate upon details more precisely until we are closing in
    on the system, perhaps not until we see the whites of its eyes.”

    1. Add that forecaster to the list of met’s actually paying attention: JMA, SAK, and myself are included on that list. There are other paying attention but not really allowed to say that because of their bosses.

    2. Sure doesn’t look like they are thinking Suppression.
      It looks like they are thinking what will the precipitation type(s) be.

  39. Monster nor’easter could bring rain, snow, sleet and snow to Boston this weekend. A foot of precipitation is not out of the question. Millions in path. Officials already preparing! We’ll keep you posted as the biggest storm of the season approaches.

    (I’m still practicing for certain-to-come TV met job!)

  42. This is only one semi-random example of the deterministic models related to the NWS quote above.

    The ICON model (just using it as an example). Today’s 12z run had the surface low in western Tennessee at 18z Saturday. Today’s 18z run has the surface low in northeastern Texas at 18z Saturday.

    Yet there are people heard by millions talking about rain/ice/snow lines for a threat that is 6 days away.

  43. Eric is focusing on “Wednesday” for nailing down the specifics for the Sunday storm. Isn’t that still a number of days away for a final call?

    1. In most patterns that would be ok to start putting nails in, but in this pattern I’d wait one more day.

    1. Not necessarily, especially if the model consensus still doesn’t have the 500mb pattern correct.

        1. You mean depart from the forecasting style I’ve used for 3 decades that is responsible and actually works quite often? No thanks. I’ll keep right on doing it my way. 😉

  48. It’ll be interesting to see what the models do with the energy for the weekend threat once it reaches North America. Right now it’s north of the Midway Atoll in the middle of the North Pacific. 😉

  51. Didn’t have much time yesterday to post, but conditions at Killington Saturday were great after the two feet of snow they received last week. It was very cold with temps in the single digits but bluebird skies and 80 mi visibility. The snow and rime ice ensconced on the trees were beautiful! Here are a few shots:

    Looking towards Killington Peak from Skye Peak:
    https://i.postimg.cc/wv2XnmNz/killington.jpg

    View from the Catwalk trail off the top of Killington Peak:
    https://i.postimg.cc/FR6RfF5c/catwalk.jpg

    View over to Pico and the Adirondacks from Snowden Peak:
    https://i.postimg.cc/nV7js7rh/pico.jpg

      1. It is one of my favorite mountain for views, wide diverse variety of terrain, and most challenging trails and glades to choose from. Great lift system, which got even better this year with the addition of a 6 person bubble lift on Snowden. And it’s big so you can always spread out and avoid the crowds.

        1. I like Stratton because of the lack of lift lines and snowboarders, not that I have anything against snowboarders I have good friends that are snowboarders. Killington was the place I destroyed my ankle/lower leg back in 2012. I know how challenging those trails are lol. Stowe was my favorite for a long time especially when I got free tickets lol. Now since stupid #*$& vail took it over their prices are off the charts and service has also decreased in quality. Also another way of getting there for like 70 bucks instead of the 115 it use to be, vail decided to get rid of. Its now more meant for the darn big shots from the Rockies. I still feel like Stowe has some of the best views in New England. I hate vail with a burning passion.

          1. Jay Peak is my favorite. It’s the closest to west coast skiing you can get in the east. They get ridiculous amounts of snow there, aided by Lake Champlain Lake effect, and it’s a dry powder. Not uncommon for them to pick up 400″ on the year. They received 43″ last week alone and are up to 185″ on this season. More affordable than other mountains too. Just so damn far away!

            Killington is up to $125 for a lift ticket at the window on weekends. I paid $54 with my CT Ski Council membership. Never pay full price anywhere. You can always find discounts thru your local ski club, Costco, liftopia, or simply advanced online tickets through the mountain’s website (if you know ahead of time what day you are going). I have a discount program thru work (Plum Benefits) that is good too.

  52. Just hope roads won’t be to bad yet Saturday night around midnight as my son will be returning from Washington via bus

      1. I feel this one may hit us sue , nice too see you here . I think Friday’s small event may be just the beginning

        1. I hope you are right but I am not feeling it. TK makes too strong of a case of why it won’t be the one so many are looking for. Hope your son has a good trip to DC!

  54. According to Pete, suppression is definitely off the table. One less scenario for forecasters at least.

  55. One thing I would say about the weekend system, it does not look to be that strong when it comes to the wind.

    1. I saw that, NAM looks colder with the first storm as well keeping it all snow pretty much down to the south coast. That would be good verbatim for 3 or 4″. The appetizer before the main event?

  58. Can’t overlook Friday. It’s looking a bit more robust and colder for southern areas. NAM and GFS have a decent thump of snow, bordering on advisory levels for interior areas.

    00z GFS snow for Friday:

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011500&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Sunday system is a strung out mess….snow to ice to rain to ice and back to snow. Total Pivotal Kuchera snow for both systems:

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011500&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Brutal cold follows – GFS has us down to 5 to 15 below zero by Tues AM!

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019011500&fh=186

    2. I’m definitely not overlooking Friday. I’ve been watching that system potential since 2 days before the models even “knew” about it. 😉

      Still a relatively minor event, but since we’ve had nothing since mid November, I’m sure it may cause a few issues.

  59. gfs shows about 8 to 12 inches before a change to rain/freezing rain/sleet mix going back to snow for a few more inches on top of it.

  60. As far as I’m concerned, with that energy still over the Pacific, the scenarios on the table range from a track well offshore to a track over the eastern Great Lakes. That represents a very wide range of impacts here. Too much detail has already been talked about in media so many already have an idea how it plays out and won’t be so open to taking forecast changes “nicely”.

    2. UKMET has been scored very well. Way above the gfs and slightly lower than euro. Correct me if I am wrong TK but believe I have seen the stats on it.

      1. You’re right but there are some differences in this set-up that bring it down in its success level.

    2. Actually I gave it as a tongue in cheek reference to media talking about rain/snow lines over a 100 mile stretch, 6 days away, when the energy is still about 4500 miles away. 😉

Comments are closed.