Thursday Forecast

323 Comments

2:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 17-21)
Here is a breakdown of the weather I expect to occur during the next 5 days – classic New England winter weather at its “finest”…
We begin with a cold but day today as high pressure moves in from Canada. This high will not hang around and will make way for a minor low pressure system moving across New England Friday, passing north of southern New England. Its warm front will produce a period of snow (mix to rain to the south) with minor accumulation as it passes through during Friday morning. Its cold front will come through later in the day fairly uneventful, but it will open the door for cold air again which will settle in during Friday night and Saturday. And then we turn our attention to the well-advertised bigger storm for Sunday. It will actually move in during Saturday night, as snow spread west to east during the evening hours. The low pressure center which will be coming out of the Ohio Valley is likely to “jump the mountains” and redevelop near the Delmarva. The very cold high pressure system in eastern Canada will likely cause the center of this system to pass just south of New England. It won’t be a powerful low, but the combination of it and the high to the north, warm air to the south feeding the system and arctic cold banked over New England are the ingredients for a significant winter weather event. This low will also be fairly elongated and not concentrated in one compact powerful center. So how does it impact southeastern New England? This is how I think it goes. Heaviest of the snowfall for the entire region will be Saturday night, in the late-night hours or pre-dawn hours of Sunday, however warmer air working in aloft and more marginal surface temperatures along the South Coast will turn the snow to a period of sleet then rain there fairly quickly, so accumulations are expected to be most minimal there. We are very likely to see the warm air aloft work its way northward into a good portion of southern New England during the course of the precipitation event, which continues through most of the day Sunday. All the while, the cold air will be very stubborn near the ground. As you know, the temperatures profile in the atmosphere will determine what falls in any given location. My best guess at this point is that we see mostly snow with possible sleet mix across southern NH to the I-495 belt of MA down to about the Mass Pike, and in these areas my first guess for snowfall is 8-14 inches. In a fairly wide band which includes the I-95 belt from northeastern MA to the Mass Pike and the city of Boston the snow will be followed by sleet and a first guess for this band of real estate is 4-8 inches of snow topped with sleet. To the south, in the Plymouth MA to Providence RI and southeastern CT corridor, I’d expect a turn to rain, however a narrow strip of freezing rain would be possible near the sleet/rain line depending on surface temperatures (something to watch closely) but these areas would see 2-4 inches of snow before a changeover, and a coating to 2 inch snow amount early in the storm would occur closer to the South Coast including much of Cape Cod. PLEASE keep in mind that I am first guessing these amounts 3 days before the storm and these are not solid final numbers just yet. There is a lot of wiggle room still at this point, as just mere miles difference in storm track / temperature profile impacts these boundaries. Regardless of the details of the storm, it will be ready to pull the cold air right back in as it starts to move away Sunday evening, so everybody ends as snow tapering to snow showers. The big question: Will the clouds break in time for at least a little bit of view of the total lunar eclipse that takes place from Sunday evening to the early hours of Monday morning? Time will tell. What is certain is that bitterly cold arctic air will be in place, along with plenty of wind, for the MLK Jr birthday observance on Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Areas of snow arrive overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of snow, accumulating a coating to 1 inch but some 2 inch amounts possible higher elevations of central MA and southern NH, but changing to mix/rain South Coast, ending midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny day. Cloudy with snow arriving west to east at night. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Significant storm of snow/sleet/ice/rain. Temperatures range from 20s north and west to near 40 Cape Cod during the day, falling rapidly at night.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 22-26)
Not highly confident on this forecast but the idea would be for dry/cold January 22, milder with rain/snow showers January 23, dry/colder January 24, and another low pressure system potentially impacting the region later in the period with a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 27-31)
Will be monitoring for a lobe of Polar Vortex and where it ends up. Further east and we’re colder and drier with a few light snow threats. Further west, not quite as cold but possibly stormier. Leaning toward the colder/drier scenario at this time. Will re-evalulate this period in future updates.

323 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. I have waited all these years in the blog. here it goes.
    FIRST!

    Thanks tk. I can tell me and you are night owls since we are up here and the nesc page on fb lol.
    Mark is usually up with the euro model snow map.
    Do you think our area woburn/reading in the higher end of the 4 to 8 you mentioned and maybe possibly a foot?

  2. Good morning and thanks TK.

    00z Euro has the low emerging south of the Delmarva and then traveling right over the benchmark. However the warm air aloft still floods north and the 540 line makes it to the NH border. Precip type map on my service shows the sleet/frz rain line making it as far NW as a line from Springfield to Fitchburg to Portsmouth. The changeover to rain line makes it from roughly New London, CT to Providence to Boston. Then everyone goes back to snow before ending. Pretty similar to TK’s forecast above.

    00z Euro still showing overinflated numbers on the snowmap:
    https://i.postimg.cc/GhWCttBC/Capture.png

  3. 00z CMC similar to the Euro, but slightly colder. Stays all snow north of the Pike and lots of it. Kuchera Snowmap:

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011700&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I think there is hope north of the Pike and outside 95 of staying mostly snow/sleet and reaching a foot or more but I am resigned to the fact that we are doomed here in northern CT for a lengthy period of sleet/frz rain. Hoping for a good front end thump but likely will be looking at 4-8″ compacted down by slop.

    1. Such a shame…we end up with the perfect track near/inside the benchmark in mid January and still not good enough for an all snow event. I am excited though for the ski areas with another big hit.

  5. TK thanks. I actually think the ice part of the storm is the most interesting, most important and maybe the most dangerous. Much depends on how much of the stuff falls and when it falls.

    1. Jeez could you Imagine, i live on the border of Salem and Methuen, This would be a bit much I think, at least I already have no school Monday.

  8. 6z NAM has come in much COLDER than the 0z NAM. Mix line does not penetrate much further north than the Pike.

    Surface map at 7AM Sunday AM and this is as far north as the mix line gets:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011706&fh=78

    Kuchera Snow at 84 hours and not quite done yet…

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2019011706&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Double digit snows north of the Pike but not looking good in CT, RI, and SE MA

  9. Winter Storm Watch already posted for Litchfield County in CT and I would expect more of these to get issued across SNE. This is for the weekend storm system not the minor one for tomorrow morning.

  15. Still liking double digits for Boston north. I am surprised how much sleet is introduced but we shall how much of an impact.

    1. I was extremely disappointed that the Euro threw the facata sleet so far N&W. boston on the hairy edge of the rain line. even if boston goes to rain, IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. we shall see.

    2. Boston never looked like all snow I believe . The sleet , freezing rain or rsin was talked about

  17. Kane, assuming my 4-8 is right, the sleet factor is at play. Lots of sleet sooner, closer to the lower end, less sleet and it’s higher.

    No surprise here at all that there is the chance of a whole lot of sleet. This is a perfect set-up for that. Just going to depend on where the entire belt sets up now.

    1. There is a pretty deep layer of cold modeled to be underneath the warm air riding aloft. That is a strong sleet signal.

      Anyone who is pretending to know exactly this plays out then they are better than me that is for sure.

      ECMWF snow seems way to pumped and jacked. Some of those snow maps make don’t compute at all. Take the southern NH jackpot. You apply a 15:1 ratio to the QPF and you get about 32″, so for 40″ are we applying 20:1 plus in a storm that is going to have some thermal issues even if it doesn’t mix consistently at the surface?

      Also ECWMF is generating a lot of this QPF due to latent heat transfer from the warm to the cold but I suspect it is too cold creating a little too strong of a contrast between temps. Look forward a bit to Monday. The ECMWF portrays afternoon temps in Boston of about 6, Worcester 1 Springfield 1 Hartford 0 North Adams -7. You thing it might be seeing a little too much cold?

      I think TK is right on for this juncture and as always the best model is a blend of the most reliable guidance – observation of synoptic conditions and experience.

      Of course I had been a believer that Friday morning would be a bit stronger than thought to be a few days back, but all guidance continues to back off that one, so what do I know??

  19. Hi all. If I may, I would like to take a moment to apologize for being testy. Macs sister is struggling with serious health concerns. We have been waiting for test results for a few weeks. She and I are close and I’ve been focused on worry for her. We learned results yesterday and they are not good but now we can focus on helping her to fight the fight. She is a strong woman.

    I should have known enough and made the mistake of not moving away until I could get my own thoughts under control. I am deeply sorry. I promise to try to do better

      1. Thank you, Mark. She really is a strong woman. I could take up a page relaying stories of her life. She flew Pan Am and then Delta for 40 years. While with Pan Am she was one of the volunteers to go into Iran after the hostages were rescued and get as many non-Iranians out as possible. She said at that point, they were putting people everywhere, including overhead bins. And that is just the tip of the iceberg.

    2. Thank you, Dr. These always help. I am NOT a fan of sleet and freezing rain but looks as if that is what we will get as of now anyway. I’m doing my weekly food shopping this morning. My guess is between the storm and the game, Saturday will be a disaster.

      1. Smart thinking shopping now. No matter what we get the public will get a whiff of fear throughout the day today and friday/saturday will be unbearable for popping out shopping in a lot of areas.

  22. Nam is cooking and should start coming out very soon.
    If it moves North, then see ya for much snow. If it holds course or moves South,
    then we are in business. We shall see.

    As it looks now, TK seems to have a good handle on it.

    I want to see a few more runs…

  24. Thanks, TK, as always for such a thorough synopsis.
    You, your sister-in-law and families are in my prayers, Vicki. We love you here and miss you when you’re not!!!

  28. I know snow amounts get a lot of focus …..

    There’s a region of southern New England that is going to have a higher impact event because it won’t be all snow.

    That zone that has some snow to start, followed by a lot of sleet, maybe even a touch of freezing rain, possible coated at the end with snow. That kind of snow cover that won’t move easily once the plunge of temperature zooms in on the backside.

    I also worry, though I don’t think it will be more than scattered, about any power outages, with the plunge of temps at the end of the system.

  34. Why am I surprised. This figures in perfectly for this Winter.

    Blah blah blah. At the very least it will be interesting.

  39. So let me get this right….

    1. Little to no snow on Friday?
    2. Quick change from snow to ice/sleet to a mainly rain storm on Sunday?
    3. The forecast hi temp for the AFC Championship game has gone from single digits to up 20’s, resulting in a non factor?

    Its like a huge flip from 2 days ago.

    1. I have strong doubts that anyone or any model knows the answers at the present moment. Further runs today will add to the confusion.

  42. My back is aching just thinking/reading all this.

    Thanks everyone, for being the best page to turn to for real weather info.

  44. Come on everyone, it’s still Thursday! We know this can change and probably will. JMA was right when there is no way to know what’s going to happen right now.

    JP-hold out hope 🙂

    1. Hadi, after the GFS came in, I don’t know what to think.

      Now I am waiting on the UKMET and of course, the almighty Euro.

  45. GFS is always too warm IMO.

    That front end thump is going to be intense and GFS can’t see that.

    Let’s see what the rest of the 12z and 18z say today.

    1. Eric Fisher and Ed Vallee were mentioning about that front end thump and looks to be some good frontogenesis involved for that according to both of them.

  46. Looking at the loop on the 12z run of GFS it has the thump of snow to ice and rain back to snow. Won’t take much of a wobble either direction to have a different outcome.

  49. Especially with patriots game going on that night. I feel like there will be a lot of angry patriot fans Sunday afternoon

  54. I still favor colder over warmer but there is no way around a lot of sleet with this one in the areas where most people live which is going to hold down the robust accumulations. My concern with the model snow numbers is that a lot of it comes not from just the front end thump but a change back and that change back is going to be getting its moisture eaten away from some very dry air coming in from the WNW and that is never modeled well by any model most particularly the NAM (i almost wrote NGM…) and the ECMWF.

  55. I’m probably not the only one with this question, but the potential for sleet exists because the main low travels up through Ohio first sending warm air up ahead over us? With a secondary low forming south of us and then moving southeast of us, why do we still have such an issue with sleet? Thanks in advance for the lesson

    1. Not really a secondary coastal with this.
      The primary hugs the coast and slide out “just” South of us, allows
      all of that warmth to advance northward above us. Thus the sleet

      2. Thank you, JPD. Great explanation and thank you, GFS…..hmmm did I know those were your initials and may I assume that was intentional…..for asking the question!

        1. They were intentional, I couldn’t think of anything clever for EURO which we all know is the superior model!

          1. Very clever indeed!

            And warning — I’ll forget this down the road and ask again so you can just smile and nod please 😉

  56. 12z UKMET looks significantly more northwest. We’ll see if the Euro follows but that appears to be an unusually large run-to-run shift on the UKMET.

    1. And yet both the 12z GFS and FV3 were a little further southeast. Maybe just getting some consensus now?

  60. In this case, I don’t think the benchmark track is as telling to temperature of the middle layers of the column as it might normally be.

    The approach track of this low and the retreating location of the high allow a ton of mild air to scream in above the surface as the low travels from the Ohio Valley to around the benchmark. The low is not coming from the Outer Banks of NC and moving NNE towards the Benchmark.

    I do think whether the system is at the benchmark or northwest does have a huge impact on the surface temps or the boundary layer temps though.

    1. Vicki’s first dumb question of the day. I can pretty much guarantee there will be more.

      If that is 10:1 ratio, doesn’t that mean you divide the number by 10? It looks to me as if the color corresponding to Sutton is 12 which is a little over an inch??? Is that because we are expecting more sleet/frozen rain here?

      Thank you, sir!

    2. Not good for coast. My read is that even if the low passes over the benchmark the positioning of the retreating high pressure area allows for too much milder air to penetrate just above the surface. Translation: snow, then sleet and mix. But, if the low traverses the Cape or closer to the mainland, the front end of snow will be shorter, sleet and mix longer, with not much accumulation.

      Timing is everything, and the retreating high pressure area is not going to be followed up immediately by the incoming Arctic blast. During the in-between period I expect a kitchen sink scenario, unfortunately.

  66. Does anyone know if the euro model is fed more data (observations )than other models to work with or are all models given the same data? For instance when we send up a plane to take samples, do all the global models benefit from this data?

  67. You’re welcome to watch the games at my home, Vicki, should you lose power. Just remember to bring the 25 bottles of wine that are forecasted for your zone in Sutton!!! 🙂

    1. I am heading the the package store this afternoon and I will arrive with my trunk full. Thank you for the kind invitation!!!

  68. Of course this is far from being decided but the trend is not our friend right now. Still think we end up on the colder envelope, lots of wiggle room still. And if not oh well it’s been fun tracking as always!

  69. So looking over EURO, still doesn’t bring much rain into the fold but an awful amount of sleet and ice. Bad situation if that verifies

  70. This from Eric Fisher pretty much says it all for 12z EURO
    Midday Euro warmer aloft with a nasty mix of sleet and freezing rain after the overnight snow. Kitchen sink gross.

  71. Root for sleet. Freezing rain will cling to the power lines and trees and put power outages into play.

  75. Though its a relatively quick shot, that modifies Wednesday of next week, I wonder if folks should make sure they have a way to stay warm should they end up in an area hit by freezing rain and wind.

    I can speak for the many outages in Marshfield, where our house temp lowered into the 40s, while it was 35F t0 40F post storm outside. Much, much colder than this Sunday night into Tuesday.

    1. Good suggestion, Tom. How are you feeling?

      I started making ice two days ago for the freezer and also for a cooler I can put on the deck. I checked flashlight and batteries also.

  77. Still 2 plus days to go with this one and I doubt (or should I say, I know) we are not done with model adjustments. Recall with that November system how entrenched that cold air was and difficult to dislodge. The short range models didn’t pick up well on the colder solution until about 24 hours before the start of the event. Not to mention we are in the heart of January now as opposed to mid November.

    I’d lean more snow with a lesser period of sleet north of the Pike and 50/50 snow and sleet south of the Pike (i.e. northern CT/RI) with a limited period of frz rain/icing. A period of all rain closer to the coast in CT, RI, and SE MA is probably unavoidable.

  78. Vicki, my thoughts and prayers for Mac’s sister.

    And hoping Mrs. OS gets better soon.

    My husband and I got this bug going around a few days ago. Really feeling lousy. My husband has a bad cough and had it checked out – just a cold. Mine seems to have decided at this point to stay in my sinuses. I have had an off an on low-grade fever w/an occasional cough. Hoping to feel better to enjoy any snow we get on Sun.

      1. I would like to add that One thing we have all found that seems to help is elderberry. The kids all take the syrup. I take the pills. It is supposed to be natures antibiotic. I got it on amazon but Whole Foods usually has it unless sold out.

        JPD….I was also wondering if it is something Mrs. OS can take?

  80. One other thing I have been noticing on the models is that this system really is hauling. Precip is pretty much done in Hartford by noon Sunday and Boston by 4PM on the NAM. Very little backend snow with all that cold dry air rushing in. This could serve to cut down on some of the projected higher end snow totals.

    1. We make what we make on the front end thump. I even see some models ending as sleet with no change to snow.

  81. Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits

    Reminder that most NCEP models include sleet in “snowfall” output. For upcoming storm, this will over-estimate near the big cities. Best option with NCEP data is snow depth change instead, which does not include sleet, and makes a 1st-order attempt to determine snow:liquid ratio.

    1. that’s Tropical Tidbits. The Kuchera
      method available on Pivotal weather
      does a much better job of accounting for sleet. Make the comparison and it is readily apparent.

  83. noaa says 15 inches of snow followed by around a quarter inch of Ice, can only imagine if this was all snow, it would probalby equate to the seasonal snowfall lol.

    1. I don’t think so because they are probably over-estimating the total precipitation anyway.

  84. Just taking a moment in the busy rush to extend good wishes to those ailing and who have loved ones ailing. I’ve been sick myself for 3 days and it’s been a bit of a stretch trying to operate normally as I have not had much of a chance to do otherwise. I did get a little extra rest last night, however while watching the Bruins lose. 😉

    Digesting the 18z’s as they come in and as always updating my thoughts if necessary. Not feeling too much change in what’s written above.

    JMA thanks for your thoughts!

    1. Check out the updated NWS map. NOT EVEN CLOSE to the piece of crap forecast they issued earlier. WAY down.

      1. I’m wondering if that map was a mistake originally. I mean this isn’t even in the same universe. 😛

  89. The snow projections being what they are for southernmost New England, the irony is that the impact potential has gone up today, perhaps significantly, in these same areas.

    1. Yup. Actually I still feel pretty good about my amounts posted in the discussion. And I know you are a teacher, but you half missed your calling as a meteorology professor. You have such a grasp of things in the analytical way it’s astounding, given you have no full training in meteorology other than what you have taught yourself. 🙂

      1. Thanks so much TK !

        I’m going to throw the compliment back to you because I’ve learned so much here, from you and all the other bloggers. I’ve loved weather my whole life, so maybe there’s a bit of god given instinct, but it’s really about your blog and how good a teacher you are.

  90. 6-12 for Boston & Harvey has it snowing heavy late night 1-3 inches per hour . Also seems to be coming in maybe a tad early

        1. We won’t know if he’s done a great job on the forecast until we actually get to verify it.

          I don’t agree with his forecast #’s. I think they are too high.

      1. I didn’t see him but I can guess he thinks it will be later if he’s forecasting more snowfall.

      1. Actually I think Ch 5’s may be too high. 7 & 4 are closer to what I believe will be the case except kill the 2 foot amounts NW.

      2. Actually, channel 7 has been promoting a warmer solution most of this week and has not shown any hype, in my opinion

  92. just 24 hours ago, people were concerned this storm would trend too far south and east and now we are going the other way. TK has taught us not to hang on every run of every model. That doesn’t mean ignore them, but just look at what happened in the last 3 runs to tomorrows storm…..it went poof….although I am openly rooting for snow as always, I do think there is the potential the cold air mass in place is being underestimated. It will also help with the clarity once this next system passes by.

  93. Found a picture from the Netherlands (the province Groningen). It was taken today. See link below. Notice how green the grass is. They rarely have a severe frost, so the grass stays green all year. Also, notice the dark clouds looming to the northwest. This is typical in winter, as rain and sometimes wet snow showers develop over the North Sea. This is then followed by a brief sunny period, and so on and so forth.

    https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/01/17/525327/1008×567.jpg

  98. Something to keep in mind from Meteorologist Ed Vallee
    It is imperative we realize that a small error in changeover time from snow to sleet/ice/rain will have a profound impact on snowfall totals. Example: if the forecast calls for 4″, but the changeover happens 2 hours late, 8″ could be the result…

  99. I think that the 18Z GFS amounts may be the most realistic snowfall projection thus far. Either way, for area south of route 2 and east of 495, it’s a mess.

      1. Thanks JpDave. I read every single day. I just don’t post that often anymore. I do enjoy everyone’s analysis, however. When a pending winter storm is stirring, I just can’t help myself:)

  100. Still not sold that this baby doesn’t drift further south, let’s see what tomorrow holds. I think it ends up further south, less qpf. I also think they front end dump will be potent, going to be puking snow for several hours.

    1. Agreed, but even with a BM storm, the lack of artic H allows for warm air advection aloft to change the snow over to a mix bag. How much snow we get will rely on how quickly or slowly the changeover occurs. There will be strong forcing ahead of the warm advection so snow could come down heavily for a time later Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. At least we finally have something to discuss.

    1. the version I have doesn’t allow me to move in, but I cropped and enlarged our area, For some reason that persons is very much different than mine. Mine shows those same areas as 6-12 inches.
      Lets see if this works
      https://imgur.com/a/ieFPHbu

  102. Matt is yours a Kuchera for the 18z GEFS? The link I posted from NsfwWx was the 18z GEFS using the 10:1 ratio.

  104. Vicki in case you missed my comment above, the map that went from 5-8 in one zone to 12-18 in the next was from Ch 25. Oops! I’m sure they will fix that.

    1. Hi TK. I did. I was at the Sutton fourth parade committee meeting. And oops is right but we all make mistakes.

  105. Harvey leaning towards higher end of 6-12 for Boston saying it’s mostly cold . He’s calling it a major storm jokingly naming it the make up storm .

  106. TK – Does Logan get to 32F on Sunday or stay in the 20s?

    Which is more likely there?…sleet?…or freezing rain?

    Is there going to be much of a temperature contrast between Logan and the Boston neighborhoods?

    1. Guess it’s up big time. I didn’t see the 18z NAM.

      00z NAM looks much further south, progressive too. Less
      Overall qpf but more snow further south.

      1. That’s what happens when they hammer on a possible event a week away. It’s like the Easter candy that I saw in CVS on Christmas Eve.

  115. Every NAM run speeds up the end time on Sunday. Now it wraps things up by 1PM.

    It does not, however, start the storm any earlier.

  116. Vicki I posted the 18z NAM under your comment to show a comparison to the 0z NAM run which is why you were seeing 4 inches.

    1. I got it. Thanks JJ. Phew. And I just bought a new, super duper hair dryer. I’ll work on getting it down your way. It isn’t so far away as it is

  119. Tk or maybe someone else can answer this. When looking at FGEN(Frontogenesis) banding. Do we look at 850 MB or 700 Mb?
    For an instance here is the Nam signature banding for 700 mb
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_700&runtime=2019011800&fh=57

    And here it is at 850 at same hour
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_850&runtime=2019011800&fh=57

    Different places of banding? Which one to look at?

      1. Absolutely. Very cold up there with temps down in the teens and single digits. I would expect ratios greater than 20:1

      1. Yes, it is Kuchera calculated snow so should include the actual snow ratios and not include sleet accumulation.

        1. Thank you Mark

          Off to sleep but will be curious to see what morning brings. I appreciate all of the links and help for me in understanding what some means.

  128. Sorry haven’t joined in this evening. We were at Mass General most of the evening.
    Mrs. OS does NOT have pneumonia which was a great relief. The docs think that
    this nasty bug has aggravated her Asthma which gave her some serious problems.

    Looking better tonight….

    Re: Storm

    I was happy to see the NAM and GFS come in a little colder with an uptic
    in snow. Even so, SLEETORAMA during a fair part of Sunday. Should be a WILD
    day. Very much looking forward to it and when it is over settle in for a PATS WIN!!!!

    Good night all. Be back tomorrow AM for more of this.

    2. Dave, sorry to hear. Hope your wife feels better real soon. That is good news at least she doesn’t have pneumonia!

  131. Well ooz euro decided to thicken the plot and go even warmer than the gfs lol.

    One thing I don’t understand is we are below freezing the whole time on 700 mb and 850mb and of course surface. So where does the warm air come from or why is it showing considerable less snow? Maybe the 925 mb?

  138. The ice has me concerned. I have seen for my area anything from .25 to .5 inches of ice. At what thickness show we be concern for power outage and limb loss?

    2. I think where you and I are Coastal also have to see how that first 1/3 marker of the storm goes, as far as the trees.

      At that point, it will be interesting to see how much snow accumulated on the trees prior to the turnover, do we get a lot of sleet or go over to rain/freezing rain (either way, it will make the snow weigh more on the trees and where does the coastal front make it to, which may have an effect on how strong the surface winds get ……

  140. Good morning! Sugar coating here in Coventry CT, 21 degrees.

    6z GFS looks warm with a track over LI.
    6z RGEM is even warmer and looks to track the low over CT.

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