Friday Forecast

285 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-22)
The first of 2 storm systems, and by far the weaker of the 2, has let us off easy as much of the snow associated with it has dried up, and only patchy inconsequential snow will be around this morning with many places seeing nothing at all. However it is still a passing low and we do get a brief shot of milder air today before colder air returns tonight and Saturday and sets the stage for the clearly stronger second storm coming through the region from Saturday evening to Sunday evening, about a 24-hour event. This will be a cold storm in that cold air will dominate at the surface. The question remains how much warm air gets in aloft and as a result where do the lines between snow, sleet, and freezing rain set up. While our fairly reliable European model came in a little warmer looking which would mean more sleet further north, and our somewhat reliable NAM model came in colder meaning less sleet pushing as far north, as far as guidance influence goes I am not going to change anything from yesterday’s forecast. Experience leads me to want to lean slightly to the colder solution as yesterday’s preliminary numbers were kind of a “split the difference” first guess. So the adjustment made today will be very minor to my snow/sleet accumulation numbers, and I will tweak further on the next update, if necessary, as it will be done well before the precipitation arrives. Another aspect of this storm I did not mention previously but need to now is that we will see minor to moderate coastal flooding during the late morning / midday high tide Sunday, which is astronomically high at this time. A more offshore wind will lessen the flooding issue for the late night high tide with the exception of north-facing shores in Cape Cod Bay which will see some minor to moderate flooding at that time. What hasn’t changed at all is the brutal cold that follows the storm Sunday night and MLK Jr Day on Monday, which will ease up slightly Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. The other big question, for sky watchers, becomes whether or not we will see at least some partial clearing Sunday night, allowing us to get at least some view of a total lunar eclipse that starts later in the 9PM hour and peaks shortly after midnight. There is a fair chance that we may get to see at least some of the event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy light snow/mix early to mid morning. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow arriving west to east, becoming heavy at times by late evening and overnight, mixing with or turning to sleet and freezing rain South Coast and slowly advancing northward in the pre-dawn. Lows 18-25 but temperatures rise slowly especially near the South Coast overnight. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Overcast with mostly snow that may mix with sleet southern NH and northern MA, snow mixing with or turning to sleet Boston to Worcester corridor, and sleet and freezing rain to the south with plain rain possible immediate South Coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Precipitation tapering off from west to east by late-day with breaking clouds. Total snow/sleet accumulation expected ranging from up to 1 inch Nantucket to 1-3 inches MV and Cape Cod, 3-6 inches South Coast to Plymouth MA, 6-10 inches Providence RI and eastern CT area up through Boston area and I-95 belt, 10-16 inches I-495 belt into central MA northward into southern NH. Highs 22-29 northern areas, 30-37 southern areas with mildest Cape Cod and Islands, occurring by late morning, then temperatures falling in all areas during the afternoon. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, during the morning, then N to NW 15-35 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 0s. Highs from the upper 0s to middle 10s.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 23-27)
High pressure moves offshore and a front moves through from west to east January 23 with rain/snow showers with milder air in the region. Colder air returns for the remainder of the period with mainly dry weather January 24-25 as low pressure passes offshore, then another low pressure area may bring some snow and snow showers during the January 26-27 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A lobe of the Polar Vortex will bring below to much below normal temperatures and small systems rounding its base can bring occasional episodes of light snow or snow showers during this period.

285 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Quick question for Central Worcester County, snow weight? I’m assuming it is not going to be fluffy, but not not cement like? In between perhaps? What’s the expected snow ratio? Thanks!

    1. In between, probably close to 10:1 for the snow ratio but wild card is sleet. If it really gets in there, it will add plenty of weight.

  3. Hello and thank you TK.

    I am interested in that high temp for Monday. Does the high occur during the day or just after midnight on MLK Day?

    1. It can be either. It should fall to somewhere in the 5-15 range Sunday night and basically just stay there.

  6. JPD. Very happy to hear Mrs. OS does not have pneumonia. I have talked to a number of folks who have had whatever the bug is irritate their asthma….ranging from 7 to my age. A friend who is a PA has had the same problems your wife is having. I have never had asthma until a few years ago and have been using my rescue inhaler regularly and the steroid inhaler daily. I just turned the corner this week from the day after Christmas. The bugs get odder and odder each year.

    TK, Tom, Joshua, rainshine and all others – I sure hope you are feeling better.

    1. Thank you Vicki. It was/is something else for sure.
      problem with my wife is that she is allergic to almost everything.
      She cannot use the inhalers, so it was dicey the other night.
      Somewhat better last night.

      I DEMAND that all get well NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. Keeping my fingers crossed that sleet will be the dominant precip Sunday as opposed to freezing rain.

    Also, why are chemicals already on all the streets? I can see doing it tomorrow.

    1. Phillip,
      I will assume its because of the threat of snow last night/this morning as well as the storm tomorrow night. Liquid anti-icing treatment (salt brine, Mag chloride) can stay on the roads for up to 36 hours. Most likely an abundance of caution and if its salt brine the cost is minimal.

  8. Thank you, TK, and Happy Friday…
    Vicki and Dave, my prayers are with your sister-in-law and Mrs. OS for strength and a complete recovery.

    Here’s hoping everyone else on the DL gets well soon and back in the game!

    TK, do you think the strong winds and freezing rain pose a major problem for power outages, especially down here?

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Glad Mrs. OS is better and hope everyone is better. This bug has made a home in my sinuses which makes me feel lousy. I have a low-grade fever that goes up and down. My husband has a nasty cough. We have had it for only a few days. I have had bugs in the past which left me with a cough for a month or 2. But being older seems to make us feel worse than when we were younger. Also, we finally bought Motorola e5 smartphones and I am still trying to figure it out.

    Thank you for your wishes, Vicki. And I notice you still occasionally refer to me as rainshine. I think I will go back to that. I will change it and I hope it doesn’t make too hard for TK to do that.

    1. I think of you as rainshine just ask I think of JPD as Old Salty. Hard to teach an old dog new tricks. But I also like both of your new names!!

      Feel better soon!!!!

      1. I kind of missed the name rainshine. It’s pretty. Reminds me of a summer shower with the sun shining. Kind of a strange thought on the days to come weather-wise. I was hoping to feel better to play in the snow on Sun.! LOL!

  10. Facisnitaing to see the difference, albeit very subtle but make a huge difference. You can see thr systen starting to form. Will be watching several factors.

  11. Question. I’ve been trying to figure out how to tell the difference between sleet and freezing rain.

    My thought process is that sleet is already ice pellets as it comes from the sky, but freezing rain feels like rain until it freezes. But when does it freeze? When it hits an object? If so, I assume the ground, trees, power lines, or whatever it hits has to be quite cold??

    I know everyone is focused on the changes in models, etc. so if there is not time to answer, please know I’ll understand.

    1. Layman’s answer: Sleet is ice pellets falling all the way to the ground. Freezing rain is liquid rain that freezes upon contact with the surface when surface temps are below 32.

      So, Vicki you were right on!

      1. Thank you, sir!!! I am sure hoping for either sleet or better yet snow. I cheered when I saw TK’s amounts for Boston increase. Of everyone, I suspect you have the most wishes for a positive outcome heading on up to Mother Nature!!

    2. Just want to make a note. In my ten years of combining forecast maps for friends the station I have seen rarely be wrong when there are wide swaths or big variables in play? Channel 7. I saw someone make a joke about channel 7 yesterday and wanted to put this note in response. Their map has seemed the most reserved so it will be interesting to see the outcome.

  14. The NAMs might be, probably are, a little too cold, but I think you definitely have to blend them in. On the other hand, the RGEM is a good bit warmer. I think the best thing to do is just take a consensus. That basically leaves me where I was the other night, 4-8″ for Boston, leaning more towards the high end of that range, if not for Logan at least for most of the city area. But you’re still going to mix with sleet. Highest totals should be central/northern MA and southern NH/VT, as well as the Berkshires and eastern NY. 14-20+” in all those areas thanks to higher ratios. Still watching the freezing rain potential also, but the low level cold is pretty deep, so I think sleet will be more common with a narrower band of freezing rain.

    Keep in mind, even with sleet getting involved, this is a much colder solution than what many would’ve told you several days ago.

      1. Hi Vicki! Looks like they stand a good chance to stay mostly snow, especially near and north of Portland. Those 14-20” totals will probably extend up that way also.

    2. And that’s exactly what I posted last night when Harvey said he was going with the colder solution & predicting his range for Boston would probably come in on the higher number which I believe was 12” & that was with sleet that he said will accumulate

  15. Lower QPF is another trend to watch for here. Some projections from a few days ago were showing widespread 2-3″ liquid equivalent. That won’t happen. 2″ will be about the upper limit. That relates to the idea of a colder, faster moving system.

  17. Good morning and thank you TK. Nice write-up as usual.
    I see you upped your totals for Boston from 4-8 to 6-10.
    For this Winter, I’ll take that.

    Waiting for the 12Z runs. NAMS coming out now….

  18. I believe New England has suffered two major ice storms in the last couple of decades.
    The most recent one was in central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, wasn’t it?
    But wasn’t there a major, devastating one in Maine and Quebec in the mid/late 1990s that destroyed the power grids???
    Does anyone remember these, the particular storms and the years?

      2. 1998 was devastating to Ontario and Quebec (especially the Montreal area). I remember it was still the early days of the internet back then and listening in awe of all of the live streams coming from CBC Radio (who were one of the few streaming at that point in time)

    2. I lost power for 11 days in 2008. It was horrible. Took the national guard with a front end loader to unblock our road from dozens of large diameter trees. I lost about 40 trees alone in my yard. The landscape was really freaky looking.

      1. 40 trees…oh my heavens. Just awful. I remember driving through Marshfield and Scituate after a few storms and they looked like war zones. I think it is Mother Nature’s way of cleaning out, but you just want to cry.

  21. To TK and others … a question.

    Does anyone think we could have sea smoke come Monday? if so, I want to take pictures.

  22. NAM sfc temp projection still focused on 10 am to 1 pm Sunday, for the coastal front to collapse to the coastline.

    The back edge of the precip by then is not all the way to the coastline, so, Id highlight these 3 hours for any immediate coastal for freezing rain.

  24. TK and others…Once the snow changes to sleet, is that recorded as the final snow total or does it continue. Are the amounts snow+sleet combo?

      2. JpDave, so the 12z map you posted is a combo … correct?

        Also hoping all family members are doing well!!

        1. Yes, the Kuchera snow maps do incorporate the sleet in there. Not sure of the algorithm they use, but it
          would be something of the order of a snow ratio
          of 2:1, such that 1 inch of qpf would be 2 inches of sleet.
          Or something very close to that.

          So we could end up with 6 inches of snow and 2 inches
          of sleet. Very very heavy shoveling.

          One time back in the 60s where I lived we had a sleet storm in March and we received 2-3 inches of sleet.

    1. It’s interesting, in addition to snow projections, I use the varying colors to almost guide the precip zones.

    1. You should go to the Stop&Shop in Brigham Circle. Most any day of the year you would think a blizzard or hurricane was a few hours away. It’s almost always packed. It’s not just my opinion. Other shoppers have wondered as well. 🙂

  27. It is almost impossible to predict at what point it sleets and how far north it penetrates with a a few hour or 25 mile difference having a tremendous impact on the snow totals. What’s really nice about this blog and the diversity of where we are located, is we can pretty much see in real time when and where these changeovers are occurring which can clue us into this transition real time

  30. Wouldn’t it be absolutely awesome if we got to enjoy the snow, watch a pats game and have the sky clear to see the eclipse???

  32. The individual op runs, be what they are, I think the scenario here is pretty solid.

    Your going to have to be north of Boston, some distance, to see all snow.

    The heart of Mass (west to east) is going to get multiple types of precip and southernmost Mass and SE Mass have a shot at freezing rain and/or plain rain.

    Individual model weaknesses, too warm, too cold, etc ….. the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

      1. AND that would not surprise me the way this Winter is going!
        Not in the slightest. BUT the GFS blows chunks anyway.

        CMC is WARM as well.

  35. These models just show you how the models still are having trouble with the warm air intrusion aloft. I been saying ans so have others how the models could not have a good handle of this system until tonight and even tomorrow morning, We will likely see the models continue to shift up to the event and then it will be a now-casting situation.

    1. Couldn’t agree more. I am not for or against snow, but there is just too much uncertainty when things are this tricky. (I am against freezing rain).

      1. there could be alot of angry patriot fans Sunday night. I do have a plan though if the power was to go out lol. There is a 99 restraunt down the street that stays open late, so if I loose power I be grabbing my skis and heading on up lol or I will just go in the car and listen to it 😉 But I have to say I think my area mainly sees sleet and no freezing rain, I am concerned for areas south of the Pike. I think even boston could see freezing rain at some point.

  38. Definitely not liking the 12z model trends. Pretty much everything is NW and warmer. If this is correct, I would not be surprised to see heavy rain/frz rain extend to or beyond the Pike with the changeover to sleet extending as far north as southern NH. Some of these snow accumulation maps are going to need to be cut back.

    1. A total waste now that it’s just going to be washed away. Might have known this was too good to be true. And I wonder if Logan will have to wait some more for its first inch. 🙁

      2. Nah, they’ll still get several inches. A several hour period of accumulating snow is a given regardless of the storm track.

    1. I still think the models will adjust again … maybe warmer and maybe colder. I doubt that model wobbling is done.

  42. Watch late next week for the next potential winter storm threat. After the weak cutter with frontal passage next Wednesday, models are indicating storm development along the trailing front near the Gulf and trying to bring the system up the coast about a week from today. FV3 has a sizable hit, GFS and ICON are grazers/near misses out to sea. But seems like everything this season wants to trend NW. Something to watch once we get thru the weekend storm….

    1. Well, not everything has come north. The VA/NC snows early December and last weekend’s DC snow, which also grazed up to southern NJ.

      1. Correct, but don’t forget the 75 cutters we had either 🙂

        Granted….this is a bit of a different pattern now and the models have an overall cold dry look to them the next 1-2 weeks. This one is certainly more likely to go out to sea than cut.

  43. Clearly it appears warm air aloft, still very suspect of cold air surface. Freezing rain could be a real serious issue.

  44. Though I am still sticking with that front end thump delivering the goods, we achieve the snow totals based off that. What happens from 8 am-1 pm is still up for debate.

  45. Mark I think you and I are in the bullseye for a major ice storm. Probably mostly freezing rain. I hope we get a good thump of snow first to absorb some of that rain. Other wise a heavy ice accretion on trees and lines will not bode well for power, wind or not.

    2. The only saving grace I see is that if we flip to heavy rain, the intensity of it could result in more runoff and less accretion on surfaces, especially if the surface temp gets close enough to 32.

  47. I am rooting for sleet after the change over. Get that freezing ran and get .25 ice accretion or greater bring power issues into play. The thing is this if power goes out it is going to really cold once the storm departs.

  49. Though here in CT Ryan Hanrahan tweeted best excessive ice freezing rain is likely to be in the New Haven area.

  51. Just curious JJ, was that a recent tweet from Ryan? With the latest info coming out it may be a bit further north.

  52. For anyone with family or friends in the NYC here is a tweet from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino. I wonder if this happens here in SNE.
    Let me stress, my concern is not more snow, but more ice than what some of these models are showing. I completely expect 850 MB and 700 MB to be warm along the coast, the question is 925 MB to the surface.

    1. Ugh. I have a close friend who lives in the city

      With the game late, it also gives more time for power to go out.

    1. The wires in our neighborhood are under ground. BUT if the main source blows, we go out also. Apparently, the only outage the neighborhood has had in the 10 years it has existed was the storm last winter.

  55. Here is at look at the snow map from EURO. This is using a 10:1 from a tweet from NsfwWx
    https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/1086323991936151553

    eweather comment on 12z EURO
    Euro warmer at 12z…if verifys, means less snow/sleet and more rain/freezing rain. Still temps inland barely get above freezing this run and remember models typically get rid of low level cold too quick.

    1. I don’t see that much has changed sensibly today ……

      many inches of a front end dump of snow …… then, the surface is going to struggle to warm up, featuring sleet, freezing rain and rain.

    3. Look at the Portsmouth temp …. projected to be 11F.

      I think there’s going to be surprised on how fast the low level cold air returns back to the coastal Plain.

      The coastal front may initially make a bit of in-roads inland, and by that, I’m talking temps of 32F to 37F, but we’ve seen so many times, the wind go ageostrophic quicker than predicted and the shallow, cold air return to the coast many hours earlier than modeled.

  58. The 12z Euro was Grade A wild. This is going to be a very interesting 10+ days of weather in the Northeast. Tomorrow’s messy mix. Potential major rain (or possibly mix) event middle of next week. And the threat of an epic cold shot by next weekend. Can’t wait to see how it all plays out.

    1. that 240 hr panel with the 850 mb temps are pretty wild for sure. All the way to and thru the Gulf and Florida.

    2. I’m guessing that is probably overdone on the Euro. A few days ago, the GFS had similar ridiculously cold temps for next week and backed off quite a bit. Regardless, no denying the cold pattern ahead.

      1. ECMWF has been consistently too cold. It is where all so those single digit high temp forecasts came from for the Patriots at Chiefs. Now in 20’s. It was too cold in parts of SNE for this weekend and created to sharp of a temperature contrast thus polluting a lot of its QPF outputs in the mid range and it is too cold for Monday. I am going to assume it is too cold at the end of the run too.

        That said I think the model did a hell of job sniffing out this weekend’s peculiar system almost seven days ago it just had some of the details off, again mostly due to its poor temp performance and QPF issues from its consistent over amplification and slowing down of low pressure passages and of course it’s crappy snow tool.

  59. Tomorrow/Sunday’s storm does look to have trended a bit warmer. Not dramatically so, but for certain areas small shifts will make a big difference. The generally very good Canadian hi-res guidance has remained on the warm side. Those models (RGEM, HRDPS) may have a better handle then the NAM/WRF suite in this case. Still thinking 4-8″ for greater Boston on the front end though.

  60. I commented above in my response to South central that if we flip to rain and the intensity of it is heavy enough, it could actually result in more runoff and less ice accretion on surfaces. And in areas where the surface temps get into the low 30’s, it will be more difficult to accrue ice at those temps than if we were dealing with mid-upper 20’s.

    Very tough forecast and pretty hard to pinpoint exactly where this ribbon of icing is going to set up.

  62. Its interesting on the 48hr panel of the EURO, looking at the isobars.

    I feel like the isobars show a real cold air damming signal going from SW ME, into SE NH, into north-central Mass and into North-central and north-east CT.

    Similarly, from the location of the low itself, can almost see the isobars indicating an ENE slide path to the low across the south coast.

    Both perhaps further hints of a much colder surface in southernmost areas than even currently expected.

  66. After review of recent info, generally no change to the thinking of the last 2 days. A 1 or 2 inch adjustment for frozen accumulation is still on the table.

      1. I have expected them to go to sleet. It remains to be seen if any rain or freezing rain gets in there.

        1. I need – I Am Always Right from the WBZ blog to come in and tell me what is going to happen this weekend.

          Sincerely,

          I Am Not Sure

  68. Regarding that watch period late next week that I mentioned above, the 12 Euro has the storm forming over the southeast along the trailing cold front and unlike the GFS which is out to sea, it brings it right up the coast as an inside runner next Friday. Follows it up with second east coast storm next Sunday which then drives the Arctic chill down to the Gulf Coast in its wake.

    Over amplified I’m sure, but could be another wild ride next week for sure, as Wx Watcher said. But let’s not jump too far ahead right? 🙂

    1. ECMWF reminds me of somebody who put the mixing bowl 3 speeds too fast. It’s a giant mess and nothing left in the bowl to bake any goodies. Oh well, next run.

  69. ImAlwaysRight became Baileyman. We had a lot of fun going back and forth. Became a contest between the 2 of us quite often.
    IAR / Baileyman vs. Topkatt88. Fun times. 🙂

    1. I didn’t know they were the same person but I was a periphery follower…

      I remember Baileyman developing a cult following as people thought he was a genius forecaster. Really what he did is went big on every winter weather event in a 6 week run of snow where systems consistently over performed then got exposed the following year when the winter was a bit more nuanced.

      1. He had good meteorological knowledge. I think the “going high” was really more for fun. He alluded to that a couple times kind of in an innocuous way. I always wondered if that person might have been someone I went to school with or worked with, but I never did find out. 🙂

        1. I think he liked the applause of the snow freaks and knew he could build a blind cult following from them and then knew he could have plenty of fun needling anyone who might disagree.

          I remember getting into a debate with IAR very distinctly and my boss at weather central read it and knew from the writing that it was me and told me to calm the F down with internet trolls…

  70. I don’t know if he’d want me to mention this so I’ll keep it vague. Our friend SAK suffered a loss in his family very recently but because weather is weather, his job and love of weather in general put him right back in action just days later. He has taken the time to write a very detailed blog that I will share here, along with collectively sending condolences to him and his family from all of us. Thanks SAK!

    Here’s the blog update: https://stormhq.blog/2019/01/18/the-partys-over-here-comes-the-snow/?fbclid=IwAR1S5YEgmwHDMfy2UQ3Nx-3huGZa1lEz60Q0By_HxAUI0476LwnKhbcWte4

    1. mobile cannot post links.
      at food store. glad I came now. not too bad at all. minor delay at deli and that was it.

    2. Pretty much in line with my idea I believe. A lot of sleet. And the sooner it comes, the accumulations will be closer to the lower #’s on my ranges.

    3. Old Salty just curious you didn’t expect Boston to stay all snow the entire storm did you .

      2. No he didn’t. He was just exclaiming the fact that the 18z NAM run is unloading a lot of sleet on the city.

        2. Amen to that. Of course I knew there would be loads of sleet. The only thing I ever said during all of this was that certain runs stayed all frozen with Snow to sleet to snow.

  72. So 2 days ago, remember the 24-36 inch snowfall forecast for eastern MA on the 12z Euro? That map got posted in more places than I’d like to think about, even though it was never even remotely a meteorological possibility in this set-up.

    I am willing to bet, however, that the next time we see such #’s, the exact same thing will happen. 😉

  74. Game time now is close to 30 degrees. Was hoping the cold held to maybe take the crowd out of it a bit .

    2. This is an indication of how progressive things are. The core of the cold that was predicted to be over the area at game time will now be well to the east.

  75. Comparison of Kuchera Snow to 10:1 for 18Z 3km Nam

    final Kuchera Snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011818/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Final 10:1 snow

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019011818/nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

    Whre it begins to sleet

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019011818/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_40.png

    qpf at this point

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019011818/nam3km_apcpn_neus_13.png

    qpf for entire event

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019011818/nam3km_apcpn_neus_13.png

    for boston about 0.75 inch as snow
    and 1.25 as sleet

    Or about 7.5 inches of snow at 10:1 and another approx 2 inches of sleet
    for a grand total of aboout 9.5 inches.

    But you know, looking at all of these maps, the snow totals do NOT jive with the qpf totals. Something is not right.

  76. JMA – those bunch of snow freaks from the WBZ days are all here now. Only now that Baileyman is gone, our blind cult has no one to follow but the Twitterologists. We haven’t been getting enough love lately from the Debbie Downer Duo (aka TK/JMA).

  77. NWS says plain rain for Boston by daybreak with widespread street flooding and all street chemicals washed away then flash freeze by 2 PM.

    1. I’m not quite sure I agree with them on the “widespread street flooding”. However, road crews should be ready to re-treat roads during this time just ahead of the temperature drop.

        1. Should start the crash between noon and 2 in the city, and it’s going to be fast. This will be a 1970s-style temperature crash. 🙂

    2. No one dogs the ECMWF QPF / Snow alogortithm like I do, but in its defense the snowfall amounts on that map are way upped because of the algorithm that particular data service uses. Actual ECNWF snow tool which is basically Kuchera with a bit of European sensibility (or lack there of) applied is about 1/3 less. The 50”amounts on that map are about 35” or less via ECMWF snow tool.

  79. Thank you, TK.

    While it’s a significant storm with plenty of moisture the track looks lousy for snow lovers at or near the coast. In fact, I think that most of the several inches of snow Boston gets Saturday evening will be gone by morning. Some slush, of course, but not a pretty snow scene. This said, the glaze on tree branches that follows will be nice to look at by late Sunday afternoon and Monday. The attempts to open car doors and slip-and-fall accidents on sidewalks will not, of course, be a pretty sight.

    I want to add that TK was correct about the cold that follows. It’s not even close to what was forecast by the GFS models 5 or 6 days ago. TK called it then, saying GFS was overdone with the cold temperatures. Of course, this also applies to the temps in Kansas City. Remember only 3 or 4 days ago when people were declaring it would be in the single digits by game time. Well, that is far from reality.

    What I’m sensing from the models this year more than others is a significant amount of inaccuracy and inability to project longer than, say, 2 or 3 days out. The long-range forecasts by TV, radio, and online mets have been poor, quite frankly. All winter I’ve followed them closely and checked their accuracy, and it’s not anything to write home about. Not anyone’s fault, but clearly the models are not properly calibrated, or not accounting for certain variables.

    I’m very sorry to hear about SAK’s loss. My condolences to him and his family. I enjoy reading his take on the weather. I miss him on this blog.

  80. You think the Euro is cold? 18z GFS has it down to 10 degrees in north Florida on 1/30 with ocean effect snow just off shore of Tampa Bay and Daytona Beach. LOL.

    Very cold and active pattern, albeit progressive, throughout that entire run. Could be a fun period. (TK to insert Debbie Downer here)

  81. Storm may be coming but what a night. I sat outside talking to Macs cousin and my friend for over an hour….sweatshirt and sweatpants were all that was needed

      1. Vicki, on that map, looks like you are in the 10-12″ range while I am in the 4-6″. I believe those numbers include sleet. Yours seems a bit high, mine more reasonable.

  85. Hi y’all! I’ve been reading but not commenting for quite some time. As usual though, a freezing rain question. I understand that freezing rain is when it rains, but hits the ground (or whatever) and freezes because that is quite cold. So, in the current scenario, as I understand it, it may go from rain to freezing rain. Why would it freeze? I understand the opposite–freezing rain to rain but if it is raining, and then the air mass becomes cold, why wouldn’t it go to sleet? Why would the air be warm enough for rain but the ground too cold? Inquiring minds want to know!

    1. Sleet is rain that had enough time to become ice itself, freezing rain is actually not ice falling from the sky, its just that rain freezes on surfaces. Its about the layer of cold above us. 2m temps or 6 feet is usually what you pay attention to for freezing rain. Its about surface level.

        1. its not, the surface is already colder than the air above, Heat rises. cold ground also because of previous temperatures. The ground holds the temperature longer than the air.

    2. Cold air is much more dense and therefore wants to be as close to the ground as possible, thanks to our friends gravity. This layer can be very shallow but depending on the specifics can easily support the freezing of a raindrop that feel through milder air above.

      1. I’m watching 7. Ch 5 lowered a tad as well has 5-10 saying all depends on the sleet take over , yesterday I think they had 6-12. JR thinks 6 max for Boston with heavy snow after 12 & sleet by 5am. See how things look tomorrow I guess I’m prepared here .

        1. Seems about what 7 has been saying but you are right that 5 came down if they are saying 5-10.

          All set here. But that is easy to say when we are not sure of the freezing rain Line. Stay safe

          1. Agree Tom I’m thinking major issues down here . Last year I lost power twice each time was multiple days . The fire place did nothing as it just took the edge off .

  88. Eastern Canada, not too far north of the border, is currently 20 to 30F BELOW zero.

    The snow gets the headlines, but we’re headed for a higher impact event in spite of less snow.

    Midday Sunday, even if much of the precip has already fallen has potential to be really tough, with lots of slush suddenly freezing and leftover light freezing rain or a change back to ice pellets adding to the misery.

      1. All’s calm right now. 🙂

        Going to be tough to get just minor flooding. Surge and winds aren’t tremendous, but that Sun 10am tide is so high to begin with.

          1. One thing that will help is the waves won’t be anywhere near as tall as last March. That’s what really caused the problem in Brant Rock. The waves landing direct blows to the houses because they extended in height so far above the seawall.

        1. Increases the chance that the snow/sleet line ends up a bit further north. I think it increases the area that may see freezing rain, because a deeper layer of mid-level warmth pushes a bit further northwest. (Thus, it doesn’t give the rain drops enough time to re-freeze into sleet). But, in my opinion, 15 miles inland from the coast, it hasn’t warmed up the surface much at all and thus, this isn’t turning into a southern New England rainstorm.

    2. I’m no met but something tells me all maps will be lower tomorrow. Again just a hunch I could be totally wrong

        1. I get it Vicki I know the drill but most folks will do exactly what Tom is stating . Sleet , freezing rain & flash freeze . Tom do you remember that afternoon last year in Marshfield it was one accident after an other

  91. I know I’m on a bit of a rant, but I worry that the public is snow obsessed, how many inches and now that they see the amounts coming down, they’ll translate it to not a big deal and they are not going to be ready for what Mother Nature offers this weekend.

    4. Tonight I saw someone declare the storm a dud because we are not getting the blockbuster snowstorm predicted by the models about a week in advance that has been media hyped since.

      Irony: They live in the zone most likely to be impacted by glaze.

  92. Being an essential snow removal employee you would ratter be dealing with snow vs the other elements any day of the week .

  93. I am fed up with this storm and this Winter. PATHETIC!!!()@#*!@(#&*(!&@#*&!#@&*(@*#(!@#!@&#!&@#&!@&#!&@#&!@#&!@&#&!@#&

    Eric lowered numbers to 2-4 for Boston. Looks like it will change to RAIN here
    for a while now. What a DISGUSTING Winter storm. Not Fun at all.
    A PAIN IN THE ASS storm.

    I bet we don’t get a true snow storm the rest of the Winter.

    I have had it.

    Every stinken run gets WARMER still. By the time the storm comes tomorrow night
    it will track up through Montreal!!

    1. Tell us how you really feel!

      To add insult to injury, the 00z GFS takes the low track right over Boston. Could be a blessing in disguise as we flood all levels with warm air and change to plain rain.

  95. Blizzard next Sunday on BOTH the 00z GFS and CMC.

    12z Euro had the storm too but with the heavier snow further inland.

      1. At least this one actually materialized and someone not to far away to our north and west are getting the big snows. Models had this one pegged ok, esp. the Euro.

        The pattern does look ripe for something late next week. We’ll see…

    1. might have to lower them even more based on the last EURO that shows sleet/rain southeast mass and only 3 to 6 inches for my area before a change over to sleet/freezing rain. This is disgusting.

  98. I hope across media in general a lesson is finally learned about taking model runs too much for their word. The lesson is taught regularly, but unfortunately either ignored or forgotten regularly. I just watched someone on a page start hyping up next weekend’s blizzard. Nice. Gas up the snow blower. 😉

    There is a reason why the TK’s, SAK’s, WxW’s, and JMA’s of the world preach the things we do. It surely doesn’t make any of us perfect forecasters, but we hope it keeps us from going too far astray. 🙂

    1. Ha! If you are referring to my post above about the upcoming blizzard, I was only reporting what the models were saying. 🙂

      1. No no. I’m not referring to anybody here. Everybody here knows what to take and not take literally. Such statements are broad-based generalized ones. 🙂

  101. Latest GFS and NAM show a pretty quick changeover. Let’s hope the track moves even further N/W so we get mostly plain rain out of this at this point.

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