Saturday Forecast

424 Comments

6:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-21)
As it turns out, and I almost did this, I should have left my first call numbers essentially alone, because this update will return to them generally, with a tweak or two, and it would not surprise me to be in the lower end of the ranges based on sleet indeed being dominant in the frozen precipitation region of the storm. The freezing rain / rain line may end up a touch further northwest than previously indicated, but probably not by all that much. Most of the other aspects of the storm remain the same in terms of the short-term forecast that you saw on yesterday’s update, including the brutal cold after the storm departs and the chance at seeing at least some of the total lunar eclipse late Sunday night to very early Monday morning. The next round of unsettled weather is likely to be wet rather than white as we’ll get high pressure to move offshore and provide the region with a southerly flow as low pressure heads up the St. Lawrence Valley during Wednesday. This system may be moving quickly enough that the first half of the day is the most unsettled.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. A few snow showers possible MA East Coast this afternoon. Highs 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. A few snow showers possible MA East Coast early. Snow arriving west to east, becoming heavy at times by late evening into overnight, with a changeover line progressing northward toward dawn that results in sleet in a large area except freezing rain to the south except some plain rain along the immediate shoreline and over Cape Cod. Lows 18-25 but temperatures rise slowly especially near the South Coast overnight. Wind E to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Overcast with snow/sleet southern NH and north central MA, rain south of a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, with freezing rain and sleet in between these areas. Precipitation tapering off from west to east by late-day with breaking clouds. Total snow/sleet accumulation expected ranging from up to 1 inch Nantucket to 1-2 inches MV and Cape Cod and South Coast, 2-4 inches South Shore and along the Mass Pike and into Boston, 4-8 inches north central and northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 8-12 inches hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 22-29 northern areas, 30-37 southern areas with mildest Cape Cod and Islands, occurring by late morning, then temperatures falling in all areas during the afternoon. Wind NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, during the morning, then N to NW 15-35 MPH afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -10 and occasional -10 to -20.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -15.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s daytime but rising further into the 30s at night.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Temperatures rise to the 40s morning then fall to the 30s evening.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
With a front not far offshore we’ll watch for a low pressure area that comes up along it January 24 to early January 25. It remains to be seen what the track of that system is so any range of possibilities exists and I have no business trying to make a solid guess, based on ongoing model performances. It should be colder by mid to late period and we may deal with a snow threat around the January 26-27 weekend, but this can’t be said with a ton of confidence either.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
A lobe of the Polar Vortex will bring below to much below normal temperatures and small systems rounding its base can bring occasional episodes of light snow or snow showers during this period. And to follow the trend, this is also low confidence.

424 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Alright people, let’s at least try and have fun with this.

    My house in Holden prediction 7″.

    Guesses for your location in .25″ increments if playing along.

    Maybe Vicki can be our scribe? 🙂

  2. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry:

    1. 4-6” snow/sleet for Boston
    2. Rain late Wed. into Thurs. high 46
    3. Cold Canada needs to be watched!!!

  5. Logan, 3.9 just to spite me because I left them in the 4-8 range even though I think they could just as easily have been put in a tiny little 2-4 range right up the shoreline.

    Woburn (Woods Hill), 5.9

    Re: Barry’s thoughts. I generally agree. I’m not so sure on the set-up of the midweek system though. It may come in 2 parts and I am not really sure where part 2 would track. The cold air in Canada will be pretty substantial and if even a piece of that PV lobe whacks New England, we’ll feel it, sorta like we will in 2 days. 🙂

  11. What a difference 24 hrs makes, maybe this is what winter will bring us. Lots of rain just like the fall.

  13. With all that sand we’re going to have to put down on the ice tomorrow, we’re going to feel like we’re at the beach!! 🙂

  16. Thanks TK. Seems you and the major stations were on the same page all week….exception might be 5 who was high fairly consistently but not by much. I’d say job well done. We will now see what mom nature rules. Be safe all.

      1. 2nd what Vicki said, extending that thanks to JpDave, Mark, JJ and everyone who provides us all the wonderful info and make it so easy to access.

        1. I will second what Tom said. I suspect you have no idea how much your knowledge and links and explanations mean…..Tom, I include you in that list of special whw family. And it goes without saying….and I’ll say it anyway….thank you beyond measure to the person who provides us with this forum and his expertise. Much appreciated. You are the topkat

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gTyTkD1Pz_E

  18. Thanks TK !

    Logan : 4.4 inches
    Marshfield : 2.7 inches

    Look at the dewpoints this morning.

    The focus has been the warming aloft, but the post storm story will be the cold boundary layer.

  20. Thanks TK. These last minute shifts are always frustrating from a forecaster perspective. I feel like there’s been more changes in the past 12-18 hours then there had been for 2-3 days prior. I think a lot of people are going to be asking where the snow is.

    I’ll lower my Boston range from 4-8 to 3-6. Not a big change at all, but for areas near that I-95 corridor, with the way the hype machine has built this one up, there’s going to be some disappointment. I’m not sold on the freezing rain either. The warm nose is way up there. For those areas in the transition zone, should be a burst of snow, prolonged period of sleet, and shorter period of freezing rain, then plain rain. Still an icy mess, but it’s not a classic ice storm setup. Hoping for only localized power impacts. There may be a narrow band of more significant icing (~0.25-0.4″) somewhere in interior SNE.

  24. Wow, just watched Barry’s forecast and the radar, temp, wind model simulation.

    About late morning to midday tomorrow, showed Boston falling to 30F, couple hours later, down into the low-mid 20s, all the while, precip falling of either ice or sleet.

    Without a garage, Monday’s going to be one of those days you can’t open your car door.

    1. Tom was it you who said 0.25 inch and over is where the danger point is for freezing rain accumulation?

        1. Oops. Sorry. I tried to find yesterday but with so many posts it was lost.

          TK, JPD, JJ, Mark?

          I’m not liking the Ice amount for this area at all.

          1. Agreed. Some inland region, as mentioned by TK and WxWatcher above is likely to get a decent accumulation of ice.

            In smaller amounts, I don’t like the potential all the way to the immediate coast for freezing rain (which will be late tomorrow morning into the afternoon).

          2. I think it was JJ and I may have repeated it.

            I “think” last night Eric mentioned .25 inch as the amount level for concern.

  25. I just had a chance to read up

    What am I keeping track of? I’d be happy to do it but need to know details 🙂

  30. I just read back to this morning. Mark, WxW, Matt, TK. Did you sleep last night?

    I think Longshot summed it up best of all…paraphrasing

    This storm has MESS written all over it.

    1. I napped on a couch with kitties around 10PM last night, then I was up until 2 after a short drive, slept 2-6:30, been up since. 🙂

        1. I concur. They will struggle for that 1st inch. If the opening snow is intense enough should make it, BUT I see signs that that first thump of snow may be more of a whimper. More like light snow than heavy snow. We shall see. IF the snow is heavy enough, then Logan would have
          not trouble.

          Given that, I think it is suspect.

      1. Where you are my guess would be maybe 4 / 4.5 if that . It depends on how fast this changes over it also wouldn’t surprise me if all those numbers may be to high especially down here where the main precipitation might be rain

  35. Latest from NWS

    Guidance has been trending warmer and further north with low
    track and 12z NAM has continued this trend. Will await full
    suite of 12z guidance before making significant changes but
    looking like less snow across SNE with main ice threat shifting
    north of the Pike, and will have to evaluate flood threat SE
    New Eng.

    1. Wording is not clear to me. If main ice threat shifts north does it mean no ice threat south of pike or the threat shifts to include north as well as south. Sorry. I tend to be too literal sometimes

      1. I believe it means little or no ice threat south. ie Snow to sleet
        and almost directly to rain with perhaps a very brief period of ice.
        Any prolonged ice confined to North of the PIke. (I believe even farther North)

        1. Flash freeze will ice everything up regionwide tomorrow afternoon regardless of what falls during the morning.

          1. Yes, this much is true, however, all of the Snow may be washed away and I see signs of “some” drying before the rush of cold air that “could” mitigate this some. We’ll find out.

            I was previously anticipating quite a flash freeze problem. Not so sure now.

  36. For ice potential, don’t overreact to the coastmilder solution.

    surface and boundary layer still will be cold just away from the coast and even at the coast later Sunday morning.

      1. I believe too mild, especially Lawrence, Worcester, CT Valley.

        Those values to the north, that’s heavy dense low level cold air that, I think, will be wanting to press south.

        Anywhere n and w of the coastal front probably will have light or no wind. I just don’t think the surface mild air will make as much advance as this shows.

        1. You may be correct. IF the light wind drift were
          NE to N, I’d agree 100%. But being it E to SE, I have
          a feeling the surface will warm more than you are
          currently thinking.

          Either way, we’ll find out tomorrow.

  37. Thank you, TK!

    Sadly, this will be a messy, gloppy, and icy event for coastal folks and even many in the suburbs. So many factors had to go just right for this to be an all-snow event in Boston. With more (freezing and plan) rain than snow tomorrow, and more plain (relatively warm) rain on tap later this week our fall and winter rain parade continues. I don’t see that ending any time soon. Sure, snow squalls and showers may be ushered in as cold fronts approach later this month. But, at this point things aren’t looking good for snowstorms in SNE. For significant accumulating snows head to upstate NY – jackpot for tomorrow’s storm – and NNE.

  38. Good morning and thanks TK. We are back up in VT today skiing. 17 here at Killington and cloudy with a few flurries. They have a few inches fresh on the ground from yesterday. It could be an interesting ride back later. Wish we could stay up here all weekend, they are expecting 2 feet!

    My guess is 3.7” snow for Coventry, 0.5” sleet, 0.25” ice, then rain.

  39. Tom, a little plume of very light ocean snow has just come on shore
    South of you between Duxbury and Plymouth. Can you see the clouds? Does it
    look like it wants to snow in Marshfield?

    1. It definitely clouded up, as there was some sun earlier.

      Sure looks like flurries or light snow is about to start, but I don’t see any yet.

  40. Agree with JP Dave, there won’t be much ice at all near the coast. Look at the temperature in places like Newport, RI, and really all along the south coast of RI. Near 50F, and above 50F as you go further south. I think the model is actually underestimating the warmth at the surface. I think Providence gets to 45F, and Boston to 40F. Sure, temps will crash after that, but there will be little or no snow or sleet on the ground at that point.

        1. My favorite cordial disagreement is two hockey players dropping the gloves, trading a few blows, then patting each other on the back before skating to their boxes. Just doing their jobs. 😉

          1. I see. However, I was never a fan of hockey fights.
            That is what took me away from the game for a long long time.

            I did, however, witness a classic at the old Garden
            between a very young Robert G. Orr and one Gordie Howe.

            1. I’m not a fight fan in general, but for some reason a hockey fight just doesn’t fit that category. It’s such a part of the game, and today almost a formality. You don’t get the nasty brawls that you saw back in the 1970s, hitting the guy when he was already down, etc. … It’s just a tactic these days to pump up the team(s). Sometimes you do see the enforcer role being played when it is felt that an opposing player crossed a line with a player more vulnerable to injury. As non-violent as I am, I just do not have a problem with a good old hockey tussle. 🙂

              1. That’s fine and I understand. However, it still bothers me.
                I hate to see it.

                Fortunately, the Bruins games we have watched in the last several years, didn’t have to watch too many fights.

                1. The B’s are definitely not a nasty team. They take care of their own, but the emphasis on the game, not the fisticuffs.

    2. I was going to bring my ice melt into the house as I bought 3 bags of the best around but think I may just leave it in the truck now. I’m also wondering if I should cancel my plow guy.

      1. I purchased 3 tubs of good stuff as well.
        I did bring it in the house. Now, I am pretty sure I may not need it and if so, not nearly as much as I originally thought.

        1. We need to get salt for driveway. Can’t use on stairs, stoop and walkway. I tend to use plain old Morton’s table salt. And I have a combination Dawn and rubbing alcohol and water….can’t recall proportions as I made last year….for places that should not be salted.

      1. Nice.

        Evolved into a misty very light snow at the moment. Tiny snow grains. Grill cover, deck, etc lightly coated.

  42. For the first time I’m my life I actually mentioned the G word out loud. I think my son in law was ready to fly to Home Depot to see if there were any left. But then the dicussion here turned to less frozen rain down here and I came to my senses.

    It was a close call.

  48. I think we are underestimating the up front snow…there have been overrunning events where the low traveled west of the Hudson and we’ve snowed 6 plus inches…I also concur with tom about not underestimating the surface level cold and its ability to hang tough, hes done a great job explaining why so nothing to add there

  49. Always have to be careful with “the models”. If you follow them too soon, you have false hopes of 2-3 foot snowstorms when it’s actually just a bad snow algorithm combined with the fact that the models suck beyond 3 days, and especially so in this type of pattern. If you follow them too late and they pull the plug on an event even though there are known short range biases, you might go right down the drain with them. 😉

  50. I bought a couple extra bags of ice melt the other day, but I still believe it will be put to good use with the flash freeze. Unlike JPD I am not convinced just yet it will totally dry out in time. That arctic air is just itching to come down even before precip ends.

    1. I never said it would dry up in time, I said that I thought there would be some drying ahead of the cold that would mitigate some of the flash freeze issues.

      We shall see.

  51. Do we now have an issue with Logan’s wind vane?

    Almost all reporting stations in Eastern MA are reporting a NE to NNE wind.
    Logan is reporting NNW and has been doing so all morning do it is not a temporary shift in direction.

  53. “Ocean Snow”, what there is of it, has advanced up to portions of Hull. I can see the clouds advancing this way.

  55. Lightly snowing and everything’s dusted up in my neighborhood. About 1 mile west, nothing and I can see the western shield edge of the low clouds.

  56. Got home to my parents saying the town just sent a warning to us that there could be issues with first responders and that there is a parking ban in Billerica due to 2 feet of snow being forecast. This town is run by idiots.

    1. it should read the mix of snow and ice will impact first responders response and create terrible road conditions.

    2. And once again those early model prediction releases come back to haunt somebody…

      I have never been more solid in my view on this as I am after this one.

      1. The rush to get something out is always wild to me. I get it because of how competitive news stations are. Channel 7 as I mentioned previously has always been the most reserved with totals and they are the station who need the views the most I think. It’s so odd.

        For reference: channel 7’s first call map vs its most current one. (Only one revision thus far) https://imgur.com/a/McQ9TRv

        1. I understand the whole competitive side to it, but SOMEBODY has to come back to reality. That would have its own benefit when they suddenly start being “more accurate” than the competition because there are not 15 different scenarios driven into people’s minds to the point they don’t actually know what the REAL forecast is (regardless of its accuracy).

          1. Pete was always frustrated with 7 because he had been told they absolutely had to have the first numbers out. I always suspected it had something to do with his departure. He didn’t want to play the game. Sadly, there are people behind him who will. Before Eric, 4 was getting aggressive and now 5 seems to be vying for the top spot. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out. Media has been headline driven as long as I can remember – and that is a very long time.

  57. Tom, I respect your opinions. You know your meteorological stuff. Always enjoy reading your take.

    I’m a pacifist at heart. I have nothing against the military, except when torture is involved. But, I have a visceral negative reaction to violence. However – and this is weird, I know – I’m never upset by a hockey fight. Don’t ask me why. It doesn’t make sense, given my demeanor and personality. To me, the worst thing in hockey or any sport is a cheap shot. For example, Matt Cooke’s cheap shot ruined Marc Savard’s career. Awful.

    1. The respect is mutual ….

      I was a bit fired up this morning. Seems like when the snow amounts drop, it feels like the impact in people’s minds drop as well. (I’m not saying that’s what you are thinking). Anyhow, there’s every equal possibility it could get as mild at the surface as this mornings NAM and GFS are showing. 🙂

      1. It’s funny about people. All week I have heard from over a couple of dozen folks – including the couple of meetings I attended – who were remarkably well informed about the possibilities and that they were just that…possibilities. Even down to an individual waiting for a pizza along with me Wednesday night who commented on the models, mentioned they were not in agreement and that we had to get closer anyway.

        But with the numbers dropping, it seems to be the few I’ve talked to (not compared in numbers to during the week) think the storm is just a dud and tomorrow will be business as usual.

    1. The trend typically is our friend (or foe depending upon how you look at it). Warmer solutions were coming into fruition yesterday. Suffice to say, not a very fun winter thus far.

  60. Whatever there was of “ocean snow” now appears to be dying out….
    So sad….. Wanted some pre-storm excitement.

    2. What a JOKE!
      I saw Harvey pitching “The Colder Solution” with Boston in the 6-12 range with him saying he was leaning towards the higher totals.

      For a snow lover, this whole thing is a BITTER disappointment.

      I was perfectly happy with 5 or 6 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet.
      But now??? NO THANK YOU!!!! I’d sooner it went OTS or through the Lakes
      as a RAINORAMA!!!

      1. In his defense he did two days ago & he felt the higher was the more likely as he felt it was the colder solution. Harvey is an outstanding meteorologist one of Boston’s best

  62. TK Or others….Question….

    Is this HUGE shift on this storm system due to better sampling of the
    responsible short wave?
    OR shortcomings in the models themselves where:
    a. System did not develop exactly where models thought it would
    b. System developed where they thought, but models got the projected uppers winds
    incorrect???
    c. Combo of a & b

    Just curious how this got changed so dramatically????

    IF I were an on air met, I would be totally and completely embarrassed.
    And these same mets expect to be trusted for future forecasts? Tough business to say
    the least.

      1. hmm interesting. I thought so too, and then I looked.

        Actually, what I think happened was that the Southern stream
        amplified too much. Take a look and see what you think?

        Good call Tom.

        1/17 0Z 500 mb
        For 1/19 12Z
        https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019011700&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=060

        1/17 0Z run surfaca and 850 mb
        for 1/20 12Z
        https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019011700&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

        1/20 12Z 500 mb
        For 1/19 12Z
        https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019011912&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=000

        1/19 12Z surface and 850 mb
        for 1/20 12Z
        https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019011912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=024

    2. If I’d been on-air I’d have fought my bosses hard on this one. If I’d won, it would not look so drastic. If I’d lost, oh well, there’s always jobs in the fast food industry. 😉

      I won’t repeat my pet peeves that I’ve stated many times above, so you can recall those on your own if you desire.

      When SAK & JMA & I talk about the models sucking beyond 3 days, this is extremely the case. But that doesn’t mean that they automatically don’t suck inside 3 days. They can do that too, especially given the pattern, which is something I’ve talked about at great length, as have others.

      Another thing we’re witnessing is a different set of atmospheric responses to the lack of any MJO influence. We have had very few of these episodes since we’ve had so many models to look at, so the entire thing is a mutli-layered ongoing learning process.

      Last weekend when we saw ECMWF and it’s 24-36 inch snowfall forecast, within minutes SAK and I were private messaging on FB talking about the impending explosion of hype about to be unleashed upon the net. You could literally do a countdown and check amateur pages and in some cases professional outlets and see these outrageous numbers going public. Now I have said many times that I have fielded questions or observed questions and comments from others who literally bought these numbers straight off, but to be fair, I have also observed a great many more logical thinking people knowing that these were simply model numbers that were highly likely to be incorrect, at least to some degree. Many made those remarks to me as well, which makes me feel a little better knowing at least some people can apply logic when they’ve already been informed about these repeated model errors.

      So anyway there’s my long answer to your short question. 😉

  63. I got some hope on Thursday night with this storm system but got crushed yesterday and even more crushed today.

  65. Looking at the 12z EURO looks like another rainorama Thurs Fri time period. Hopefully that changes.

    2. I’m interested in the low my range, days 7 thru 10.

      Potential piece of arctic air headed south.

      No idea on sensible weather, but that’s possibly a volatile atmospheric mixture of ingredients down the road. Whether or how they interact, who knows.

        1. He stuck to the forecast. I was impressed. Although, if he could move that ice accumulation away, that would be very nice!!

          I went back and checked the great Dr’s maps. 4 and 7 did very well throughout the week. 5 was not far off but a bit higher. I don’t look past the three major networks. I’d say kudos to them.

  68. Tk thoughts on ice down here on south shore . It’s mostly a rain event here correct with a tad of upfront snow .

    1. Ocean snow showers around until about 5, a break, steady snow after 9, flip to sleet then borderline freezing rain / rain overnight. A period of rain, then transition back through the freezing rain / sleet / snow stages before ending Sunday afternoon. Your total snow on the front end, 2-4 inches. Same range I updated with above.

  69. I’ve been saying trend is your friend for almost a week now,another cutter. Probably two more cutters than maybe something for snow lovers. Perhaps a clipper will bomb out close by. This is the best blog around for weather enthusiasts. Enjoy the rest of the weekend all.

    1. You are totally correct that the best shot for a legit snowstorm is a clipper bomb. 😉

      That has a slight chance of taking place before January is over.

        1. Not that many. We lost that pattern for the most part quite a while ago, back in December.

  70. the National weather service latest update has my area not changing to sleet/freezing rain until Sunday morning and is saying 5 to 11 inches.

  71. I’m not liking the trends for icing in my area. Just saw the Euro on the weather channel and it has the potential to be significant.

    1. I think we might see some but it does look worse for your area. I hope this is wrong. Maybe TK can confirm.

    2. I’m still concerned about some problems there… Root for a thicker cold layer near the ground and more sleet.

  72. Important note not to get too hung up on the deterministic details around next weekend on these medium range models, unless it’s just for pure fantasy. 🙂 Look at the broad larger scale pattern trend and the day-to-day stuff will take care of itself.

  74. I mentioned yesterday that I thought QPF on this system would trend down. However, with the warmer solution, it actually looks to be trending up. 2-3″ in east and southeast MA looks increasingly possible, and a lot of it may come pretty quickly. Could be some embedded thunderstorms which would increase rainfall rates. We’ve certainly dried out over the past couple weeks, but localized urban flooding will be a concern, and we’ll see some decent rises on the rivers also, possibly pushing some close to flood stage. Luckily no snow pack on the ground going into this, otherwise we could’ve had real problems in that department.

  75. I’ve had extremely light snow falling in Woburn for about an hour, about 8 miles from the coast and 12 miles NW of Logan.

  77. So I was thinking, we have an extreme case of mass confirmation bias among many weather enthusiasts. Let me explain…

    If you think back to when you were first consciously aware of this particular storm threat, it probably brings you back to astronomical snow totals being posted on the internet and a few TV weathercasts. 7-days-away comparisons between the GFS & Euro, etc. .. all of that typical crap. But how many of you remember back even a day or 2 or 3 before that when the medium range guidance was of the general idea that this particular storm would pass over or even west of southern New England, bringing something between a mixed bag and a milder rain event? I do. 🙂

    I wish I could go back and grab a run from about January 10 and/or 11 that had this system as a very inside runner with a warm southerly wind ahead of it. It was about 1 week ago today that the models shifted to a more offshore leaning, still with some runs bringing the system basically right over SNE. In fact, ironically enough, the often trashed FV3 (by myself included) predicted the low center would travel right across southeastern MA, albeit with a little slower timing than is going to be the reality.

    But let me return from my digression to my main point. Many folks didn’t really give it much thought when it was a warm solution on the models, but as soon as it shifted to a colder scenario, they stood up and started paying attention. It suddenly became a threat. That, in a way, is confirmation bias from a model watching standpoint. It’s showing what you want, so it’s now a legit threat. A little tie-in of psychology to weather. Fascinating to me. 🙂

  78. It’s been snowing in JP for about an hour or so.

    Very light, but the ground and streets are feather dusted with a thin white
    coating.

    Pretty Pathetic when I get excited about a dusting of Snow!

  79. Starting to stick slightly down here . My sons trip home from Washington left early to beat the storm ( or whatever it’s called ) & were to arrive at 8 vs the original time of 11. Well 1 out of the 3 busses the seniors were on broke down . The earliest will now be 10pm

    1. They should still get in relatively ok there as that area will have a slightly later arrival of the snow direct from the storm.

  80. latest winter storm warning
    Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
    Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
    Western Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
    Northern Middlesex MA-
    Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
    Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
    Chesterfield, Amherst, Northampton, Cambridge, and Ayer
    330 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy mixed wintry precipitation expected. Total snow
    accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of up to
    three tenths of an inch expected.

    * WHERE…Portions of central, eastern, northeastern and western
    Massachusetts. This includes the cities and towns of Charlemont,
    Greenfield, Orange, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell,
    Lawrence, Gloucester, Chesterfield, Amherst, Northampton,
    Cambridge, and Ayer.

    * WHEN…Until 7 PM EST Sunday.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Power outages and tree damage are likely
    due to the ice. Travel will become very difficult.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
    and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

  83. Ocean-effect light snow in Boston. Sticking to pavement, cars, and grass. Strange to see, actually, as I haven’t seen snow in Boston all winter. I’m afraid I won’t see much tomorrow either. In fact, whatever falls tonight may already all be mostly gone by the time I get up. I must say kitchen sink storms are my least favorite. Prefer all snow, of course. But, I’d even rather have a balmy 50F-55F rainstorm.

  85. Been snowing lightly here at Killington all afternoon but is getting steadier now. Have picked up about an inch so far. Getting ready for a slow ride back….

  86. Am I sensing a subtle change in some of the Meso Scale guidance to slightly colder again?
    Perhaps it’s wishful thinking??? I dunno

    Will be watching.

    Still snowing here. Everything white.

  87. It didn’t even feel that cold up here at Killington today. When I checked yesterday, projected high was 13 and it was already 17 when we arrived this am. Perhaps just another sign of a warmer set up with this storm.

    Here is a shot of my son in the glades today. Note how much snow is already on the trail and trees in this “pre storm” shot. And they’ve got up to two feet coming tonight/tomorrow. Going to be great skiing up here in the weeks to come!

    https://i.postimg.cc/qv4PGk3Y/CD1-A3294-836-F-4-B13-855-A-75-D30177-E221.jpg

  88. https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/2019/01/19/afternoon-update/
    I been debating how much freezing rain in Northeast Mass after talking to someone and looking at the models more closely as well as current radar conditions I feel like I probably will see more sleet in my area than freezing rain.
    Boston area I think any where from 3 to 6 inches with Logan probably seeing less. Boston doesn’t see freezing rain, it changes from snow to sleet to rain back to sleet possibly. My area 5 to 10 inches of snow and sleet. I would suggest anyone that changes to sleet, freezing rain or even rain to just go out Sunday morning and shovel the snow/sleet you have and put that salt out. You won’t be able to get that stuff up come Monday morning

    1. From what I’ve been seeing nobody has 6 for Boston . I’m hearing gets cranking after midnight & pouring by 5am

  91. Dusting of snow here, light snow falling. I feel fluff factor could come in play for areas in 5 to 10 region, I posted above, Boston indeed probably lower but my snow map also includes sleet

  92. If the 22z HRRR comes in as warm as the last 2 runs, I’m going to cut my snow amounts in half. If ever we needed an example of mid latitudes not responding to the pattern drivers from far away places, THIS IS IT! 🙂 I always try to learn something when the forecast keeps being made to look really bad by mother nature. 😉

  93. My wife and I just went for a twenty minute skate on the Arlington area. It was spectacular at dusk with a coating of light powder on the ice. Someone had put two candles in an “ice vase”. Wish whats coming would be white but nice to be outside today just the same.

  95. Tv meteorologists should be fired based off of their forcasts. If TK and others can sniff out the warmer senerio then so should the TV Mets. There is a lot of people who spent a ton of money preparing for this storm who are now getting under 3” of snow and a crap ton of rain that will wash it all away.

    F-ing nuts that the media is not held liable for the losses of local business and family homes.

    If your defense is, it’s the weather (Mother Nature) no one can predicted it then then defund these organizations until they can actually be 50% accurate 3 days out.

    Pats 34 Native Americans 17.

    1. The three major channels were in agreement with TK all week. Which ones ya gonna fire? And I figure if anyone watches off channels, he or she gets what he deserves.

        1. Cute. You forgot to include TKs …see Thursday. I don’t need to post it. But in truth. Neither TK or the major station Mets were off. Anyone reading here knows how difficult this one has been. I’m not in the habit of deciding people should be fired when they do their best.

  96. Weather nation on FB reminded people to turn fridge and freezer to lowest temps. I did my freezer. I figure fridge stuff can go in a cooler outside

  98. I burst out laughing because Jeremy Reiner said something like “probably 2 inches at Logan where they measure it but JP Hyde Park will get more like 4” and my brain heard it as “JP Dave will get more like 4”. Good thing I was in between spoonfuls of my tomato soup (with grilled cheese of course). 🙂

      1. I wasn’t questioning his forecast, it was the JP that made me laugh. He could have said 44 and I still would have laughed. 🙂

  99. One serious weakness this storm is exposing: our computer guidance is badly under-dispersive. The models are all too similar. The deterministic guidance is too similar, and the ensembles based off of particular deterministic models are too similar. And this results in forecasts that are too similar. This would be fine if we knew exactly what was happening, but we don’t. We need more variations in physics, and more variations in initial conditions, to better simulate the full envelope and spread of possibilities. 2-3 days out from a storm, you should never have, for example, all the GFS ensembles clustered smack on top of each other. It’s an unrealistic, artificial description of uncertainty. Go back and look at the GFS ensemble low center forecasts for tomorrow afternoon from a day or two ago, and then look at them for the 18z run tonight. For some of the runs, there is literally zero overlap between the two, meaning the current forecast is entirely outside what the supposed “envelope of uncertainty” was only a day or so ago. That’s unacceptable. We need to bear this in mind going forward: uncertainty in the forecast, particularly during high impact weather, is frequently larger than it appears, and we are not good at communicating this.

  101. Latest trends on the HRRR are a little bit colder. 3-6″ still very much in play for the Boston area, and I could see it on either end of that range. It’s also supporting a stripe of QPF 2″+ in southeast New England.

    1. A little birdie told me he was worried about this earlier….if I understood him correctly

      We dropped from 32 around 2:30 to 26 now

    3. I had a chat with SAK about being too quick to fully bite on the warmer scenario. We were in agreement. And yes anywhere in the range is still in play for the city.

      1. Cool I just don’t think they will see six & down here on the south shore in my opinion won’t see high end . Just an opinion & guess only .

          1. I remember as I said I don’t think Boston or pembroke reaches top # which is 4 lol for pembroke & 6 lol for Boston .

    1. Yup. Barry had a 17. The actual #’s don’t really matter 7 days out. It looks like it gets really cold around that time.

  111. Light snow where I am right now. Wish it would stay snow. I noticed the HRRR keeps my area below freezing until 9am tomorrow morning. Hopefully more sleet than freezing rain will happen and then flash freeze later tomorrow.

  112. Just came from Middleborough back to Taunton. Pre-treated Route 44 was wet but in very good shape! Side streets are white and slippery.

  113. Ocean snow moving towards the west and storm snow moving towards the East.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.30217391304347824&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=358.6330935251799&centery=374.02877697841734&transx=-41.3669064748201&transy=134.02877697841734&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25799149&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    It has been snowing steadily here in JP since about 3Pm Never stopped.
    Storm snow not quite here yet.

  115. Into the beginning of the “storm” snow.
    WOW! It provided perhaps the slightest uptic in the ocean snow that
    was already falling.

    I expected it to be snowing a little better than this.

  116. Good grief. Just looked out slider. Snow is going in sheets sideways from ENE. Looked like ghosts flying past the door

    1. Temp still at 27bur DP up from 16 to 25. This is good when it comes to less freezing rain???? Maybe? Right?

  122. Wondering if i should get up at 5am here in hingham and shovel or if we won’t get much and i should sleep in. Decisions decisions.

    2. Sleep in it’s goibg to be in the mid 40s in the Am with the pouring rain . Most of what you received in Hingham will be washed away with maybe a scoop of slush here & there . Have sone salt on hand to put down at night

    3. I’d move it in case you get delayed. The mild air is not going to get that far inland and the cold air is going to be coming back fast and furious. The flash freeze may run a little ahead of schedule.

  123. Earlier I edited my #’s to shave a little bit off by generally pushing the entire area north by about 25 miles. This will be re-written and posted on the Sunday morning update which will be posted not long after midnight.

  124. Ocean’s 42F, refrigerant (snow) being added to ground. I’m looking forward to see how far the warm sector gets. I don’t think it makes it to Logan. I think Boston’s immediate suburbs west and north make it out of the storm with some kind of thin cement snow cover.

    Studying the NAM and GFS 2m projections, its close, with the 40F contour over Boston and the 50F just south.

    Also looking toward to temp crash tomorrow and if it slides in a bit sooner than projected.

  125. Smaller, moderate flakes now. Paltry accumulation for a couple of hours. But if it is going to be,cement, that is a positive

  128. Pounding heavy snow now in Coventry Ct and closing in on 2”. 25 degrees.

    Snowed most of the way on our ride back from Killington and took over 4 hours (normally takes under 2.5 hrs). Car temp went from 15 at killington to 23 in Brattleboro to 30 in greenfield and remained pretty constant there right into northern CT. But temp is lower back home, probably a combination of the heavier snow fallling now and my elevation (750’)

  129. Latest HRRR is colder still. It says 5-6 inches for Boston.

    Barry is concerned that cold air damming will filter the cold perhaps into
    Boston causing freezing rain even in the City. This is iffy, but a possibility.
    It’s currently 18 as nearby as Portsmouth, NH.

    Interesting….

    1. We have seen this set-up countless times. It’s something you can never really see coming in advance until may a couple or a few hours ahead. It’s one of those things dependent on the meso-scale setup that sometimes is not known until the event is underway.

  130. The snow that I have right now is coming down light/moderate but the type of snow it is, is very very fine. I have about 3/4 of an inch but it is on everything, roads, side walks grass, all about even with no difference on any surface. The snow kind of looks like a powder.

  131. 33 in pembroke now heavy snow covered roads etc fine snow . Won’t be much longer I’m not even going to bother shoveling

    1. It may be in the upper 20s in the city by dawn actually. We have to watch that cold air right up the coast. It’s moving southwestward.

      Boston’s flash freeze may come much sooner than anybody expects.

  133. Ok so the temperature has gone from 25 to 16 at Portsmouth NH and has gone from 27 to 19 at Lawrence during the last few hours.

    THIS IS VERY CONCERNING FOR THE CITY OF BOSTON! When this happens that cold air usually does not stop before reaching the city and they may be into a dangerous freezing rain situation as soon as it warms up enough above for the snow to turn to rain.

    Even the short range models often miss this.

  134. If we see Beverly go, Boston is gonna go shortly thereafter. It’s 16 in Portsmouth, 19 in Lawrence, and 30 in Beverly. If that back-door boundary goes through Beverly, look out Logan and the city!!!

  135. There are going to be a lot of calls being made to city employees and contractors a lot sooner than they expected to be called in.

  138. Yeah I have some driveway clearing duty to do around dawn so gonna sleep for a bit. I’ll have to wait on the new update for at least a few hours. I’m still sick too so living on Tylenol right now. 😛

  141. Just measured 4.5” of snow and sleet here in Coventry CT and it’s sleet now and 30. Not sure exactly when the changeover happened or if there was some compaction that has already occurred.

    Noticed the NWS has upgraded Tolland County now from an advisory to a winter storm warning. Going back to bed now. This is going to be impossible to clear later!

    1. What was your total snow before changeover there and how much is on the ground now? My friend that lived nearby moved to Vermont, can’t ask her anymore. 😉

  143. Dropped a degree to 29 in Sutton with a sleet rain mix. I think the rain started to mix in just as I was falling back to sleep around 4:15.

    Mark I’d say we had just about 4 before it changed and doesn’t appear to be much less now. I did not go out to measure

  144. I think hingham got about five or six. I woke up at 5am to shovel and just got in. I was right not to wait until 7 or 8. It is already raining and making it wet cement. I can only imagine how much heavier it would have been.

  145. Lightning strikes on map approaching eastern tip of Long Island.
    34 (last check) and pouring now in Taunton.

  146. Thank goodness that cold air did not make it into the city! 17 Lawrence, 34 Boston. I’m just on the warm side of it here for the moment, as is Bedford.

  147. My call here yesterday was 7” and ended up with 5.5” before changed over. Lesson learned is never ever trust WAA in this type of setup.

    Cold air is shallow. 15F here and sleet.

    1. They’ll get into it. My surface temp here barely cracked freezing yet I already have freezing rain because the temperature of the snow and exposed surfaces is below freezing. Although I actually just went to sleet as the precip got heavier.

  149. My next-door neighbor is outside with the snowblower, which is a blessing. We share the same driveway (as the 2 houses were originally built together and owned by the same person). This takes care of about 75% of the work. Nate and a family friend will take care of the other 25% and that will leave me to clear my car off. 🙂 I’ll take it since I was still in fever mode last night and I definitely have a non-bacterial sinus infection.

    Will be updating shortly!

    1. Wow. Is that the same person who usually waits for you to finish before going out? Either way…glad you don’t have to do it

      Son in law is shoveling. He stops often and is in excellent Physical shape.

  150. This is a true classic kitchen sink storm. It’s going to be very ugly this afternoon as the cold air crashes back to the coast. And it’ll be ugly all day for the places still below freezing dealing with sleet/ice. Lucky it’s a Sunday over a holiday weekend. Hopefully people just stay off the roads.

    1. I don’t think a lot of people realize how nasty the ground is going to be in a few hours, even where they had just a couple inches of snow then plain rain. Hope they’re ready for a dose of reality that comes in the form of wind with very cold teeth. 😛

  151. Oh yes, snow total here was 5.2 inches but I have sleet at the moment so that may not be the final total. Sleet counts with snow because it’s really “frozen precipitation” for weather and climate data purposes.

    1. It would not surprise me if they were late getting a measurement and they lost some of what fell. I think the guy I knew from East Boston that used to be “Logan” snowfall for several years moved away.

  153. Thanks tk. Heavy sleet here in reading too. This morning euro showed hefty accumulations of ice and even NWS service mentioned in their discussion about up to 0.50 inches of ice possible. Hope that doesn’t verify

  154. The coastal flooding has over-performed a bit down here on the NJ coast this morning. High tide approaching for the east coast of MA now, watch for at least widespread minor coastal flooding, exacerbated by ongoing moderate to heavy rain.

  155. Hello all.
    I have no measuremnt…sorry.
    Started sleeting at 4AM
    I think we may have received something on the order of 3-4 inches.34 here and at logan.

    36 beverely
    14 lawrence

    OOPs Beverly crashed from 36 to 29 in last 5 minutes!!!

    1. Now Boston has to start paying attention to the temp as that boundary is on the move at the moment.

      1. Great. I told my team we are open in Swampscott. I hope that boundary stays away because it’s safe to say once that boundary moves in, it’s here to stay. Ugh!

    1. Tom, You were COORRECT about the cold..

      I was so down on the storm I looked at the models and over looked
      the meso scale and what could happen. Nice call Tom.

      1. Thanks.

        I wish the mild air was winning or that it had been all snow.

        I think we did get about 2-2.5 inches of snow prior to changeover. They plowed the street.

  161. So Logan just BARELY got its first inch at 1.6”. They have had a downright PITIFUL snowfall season so far. I did have a bad feeling that they might come up short, and they almost did.

  166. Don’t know when facata Logan responds, but it is Now

    29, dp 25 in JP
    with serious freezing rain occurring.

  170. JPD. Daughter just had a bit of a rant on why we can’t just have regular snow …I suggested she talk to you 🙂 🙂

      1. We’ll just have to show her and Dave a video of February 2015. Nothing but straight snow in the pattern, and fluffy snow at that! 🙂

  171. Looking north, Logan may be 15 to 19F by 9am.

    Hopefully, as it did overnight, the coastal front will fight back.

    I fear it won’t on this occasion, because even out into the ocean, this particular push has momentum.

    Perhaps thick enough for ice pellets, let’s hope.

        1. Well, you hear it here first. 😀

          Be Safe. Hope you have some sort of maintenance
          crew/person who can lay out some ice melt.

  176. If I dont have a thermometer. How can I tell what the temperature of my town is exactly? Any site I can check?

  177. Darn. Swampscott below freezing. Rain turned to sleet and freezing rain. Everything froze literally within minutes! And I mean fast!

        1. In essence, it’s not at Logan, but somewhere in the inner harbor, perhaps down by the Museum of Science

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