Sunday Forecast

263 Comments

8:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-21)
We saw the snow behave about as expected, and based on the later-day update, the changeover lines as well. The little details are still revealing themselves as the storm is progressing, and one thing to watch has been a boundary between milder and very cold air that slid down the Maine and NH Coasts into northeastern MA overnight, putting places like Lawrence into the middle and upper teens while Boston was reaching the middle 30s. This boundary, as of the writing of this blog, is slowly coming down the coast of MA now and we will have to see if it reaches the city of Boston before the morning is over. While we have a variety of precipitation from sleet and freezing rain over many areas to just plain rain where it’s mild enough, all of this will continue for some time, with areas seeing freezing rain the longest obviously having the most direct impact. But later, as precipitation begins to taper off, possibly as snow in some areas, the big story will become the temperature drop in areas that were in the milder air. Anything wet or any slush/snow not removed will freeze solid in very rapid fashion by the end of the day today. That will be the largest threat leftover with this event, other than the ongoing freezing rain. Still looking for a clearing trend tonight, but the definite is the bitter cold and strong wind, so if you do plan to try viewing the total lunar eclipse, you may want to choose a window to look out of rather than going outside. I think there will be enough clear sky to see it. Not forgetting coastal flooding, which will be an issue from mid morning to midday around the late morning high tide, which is astronomically quite high anyway and being added to by some moderately strong wind along the coast. Fairly widespread minor flooding is expected with pockets of moderate flooding. By tonight, a north northwest wind will mean minor flooding should be confined to north-facing shores of Cape Cod Bay with the late evening high tide. It will be cold enough by then that any splash over is likely to freeze on anything it makes contact with. So once this is over, we won’t have anything to talk about right? I mean everybody else may be talking about blizzards on models that won’t verify, but here at WHW we’ll talk about the upcoming few days, and you might wanna listen, because Monday is going to be one cold day, with lots of wind. Straight shot of Arctic air and wind chill to emphasize it. But at least it will be dry! There may be no more ice falling from the sky, but there will be plenty of ice left on the ground, so be careful if you will be out there. As we approach midweek, the cold eases a bit Tuesday, and much more so Wednesday and Thursday, which will turn somewhat unsettled as a front arrives and then hangs around. The details of this still have to be figured out, so the forecast below will be fairly generic to reflect the unknowns a few days out.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with sleet, freezing rain, rain to the southeast, some snow southwestern NH, then all precipitation tapering off west to east late in the day. Thunder is possible RI and southeastern MA mid to late morning. Large temperature contrast ranging from around 15 northern MA and southern to NH to the 40s South Coast, but temperatures falling below 10 north and all the way to the 10s south by the end of the day. Wind variable 15-25 MPH South Coast, becoming N with higher gusts late-day, and elsewhere wind E to N 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH late day. Higher wind gusts all areas late in the day. Wind chill falling below 0 by end of day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -10 and occasional -10 to -20.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -15.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill below -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix showers transitioning to rain showers. Temperatures rise from the 20s to the 40s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as mix/snow late. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)
Seasonably chilly January 25, dry during day but snow showers at night as much colder air arrives for the January 26-27 weekend with a couple periods of snow showers possible. Slight moderation, still cold, and mostly dry end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Look for a colder than average period of weather, dominated by a polar jet stream and minor systems with snow shower threats.

263 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    That cold most definitely made it into and through the city of Boston.

    Down to 27 here in JP.

  4. Disturbing 13Z run of the HRRR.
    Has ice accretion of over 1/2 inch for the city of Boston!!! YIKES!!!!!

    I’ll post map when it get farther out so it includes the duration of the event.

    2. Unfortunately I heard too many people (not here, elsewhere) making this JUST about the snow. It’s always about the snowfall accumulation. Funny thing is, the accumulation of snow is one of the least impactful things in a winter storm. Even with snow, it’s about the type of snow, intensity, and timing, more than the total. And so many people just totally ignored the small scale things, like this cold sneaking down the coast. Well it didn’t sneak down the coast to some of us, because we were watching it while others were talking about Logan’s snow being washed away and no problems. Who cares if their barely 2 inches of snow got turned into a layer of slush from a period of rain? The issue is the city of Boston has an icing threat for several hours now. I’m really hoping that some good lessons are learned about weather information, and priorities, after this event. Probably wishful thinking on my part. 😉

      1. Wishful thinking but I agree. It amazed me that so many said it’s just going to be rain. My youngest tries to wisely remind me nothing will change that. Seems to be prevalent in other areas too

      2. TK,
        This could end up a very very serious event for the city
        of Boston.
        It is not often the city gets a full blown ice storm.
        May happen today. I can literally see the ice building just
        looking out of the window.

        Down to 26 here. As the rain gets heavier the temperature gets
        colder (today anyway).

        IF (big if, i know) the HRRR is correct. boston could see
        near 1 inch of ice accretion. I have NEVER seen that.
        It may have occurred sometime in the past, but I can’t remember it.

      1. I figured as much as I never heard of a coastal front making a second return once it goes back south. Thanks.

  7. Thanks TK
    Freezing rain where I am and just hoping the power doesn’t go out with those cold temps later today tonight and tomorrow.

  8. seems like freezing temps got here in a hurry.
    Shoveling and things are about to get crispy crusty

    Thank you TK

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, I want to commend you for nailing it with your prediction of the cold air winning out at the coast, at the surface, that is. No question about it. The NAM and GFS models were wrong. Remember that temperature forecast map from yesterday that the models spit out? Not even close to being correct. Also, remember what TK was saying, “I’m not going to bite yet on the warmth.”

    Obviously, this storm was and is difficult to forecast. But, hats off to those who didn’t `hug the models.’

  10. Here in CT with the icing we got that north wind coming down the valley and the forecast models always want to get rid of the cold air so fast. I was surprised looking at the radar this morning seeing the mixed precipitation into the Boston area.

  11. Some low topped but strong t-storms getting ready to move into southeast MA. Could be some gusty winds with those.

    1. I like the map, but it’s of the San Francisco Bay area and Northern California. My guess is SF is not having problems with freezing rain.

  13. According to Eric, Boston was supposed to reach 40 and stay there much of the day with heavy rain. The short term models were totally USELESS. I’m somewhat surprised that only TK caught on earlier of the possibility and the tv mets never had a clue.

    In all fairness though, I only watched Eric this morning.

    2. You’re right. They hugged the models. TK didn’t. And Tom didn’t, either.

      It’s not been a good year for TV mets in the forecasting department. I realize these storms are difficult to predict. However, both long-term and sometimes short-term forecasts have been off by a lot.

    1. That’s cool, literally. In Iceland they have tons of sleet, as you can imagine with a prevailing southwesterly that brings in warmer air aloft and then colder temps towards the surface. I like their word for sleet – slydda – which is where the word sleet is derived from.

    1. I believe that 0.89 inch is for the city of Boston. Areas West and SW of the city
      see OVER 1 INCH of ice!

      Will monitor 14 Z for changes.

  16. 4.5″ of snow and sleet here in Coventry CT before the changeover to freezing rain which happened around 4:30AM. We have been freezing rain since and the trees are all ice glazed. Never made it above freezing during the storm. Thankfully looks like the precip is going to shut off here fairly soon.

  18. Lots of sleet here in Medford. Doesn’t *seem* like freezing rain but perhaps my perception is failing me.

    Given the present circumstances, what’s the odds of losing power?

      1. Thanks TK. Coin flip seems pretty high for an outage. Either way, what a fascinating and beautiful event.

        1. And by “pretty high” I meant that the odds are quite high rather than your prediction being too high 🙂

  19. I’m sorry for the rain/freezing rain map, I accidentally posted Wundermap.

    Here is the current “approximate’ Rain/Freezing Rain (Freezing rain close to demarcation, sleet farther away from it)

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25799916&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  20. TK thank you , and nice call as usual.
    Getting all sleet here in Sturbridge. The temp has fallen 3 degrees since 6:00am from 26 to 23.2 currently with 19 dew point. Just measured 7 1/2” of combo snow sleet in a reliable measuring area.

  21. Wundermap

    There may have been some confusion with the wundermap link I posted.
    WHen it is opened, the map shows the West coast. To use it, simply type the name
    of the town or city you want in the search box top left.

    See screen shot

    https://imgur.com/a/A0ZbBlc

  23. TK my wife is into photography and is asking me if the skies will clear for the eclipse tonight, your thoughts?

    2. I am optimistic we see it. There may still be passing clouds, which may actually make it better in a way.

    1. It’s quite possible it’s a meso low.

      It could also be just the weight of the cold air and its ability to spread out and easily displace the lighter, milder air.

  29. We have a water-logged 1.5 to 2 inches of yuck on the ground and it’s going to be nasty when that freezes in place.

  30. I’m always wary of p-type observations in a situation like this. It seems like even with the cold air moving back in, places like Boston are getting more sleet than freezing rain, which is a good thing relatively speaking. There will be localized areas of significant icing, but it still doesn’t seem overly widespread. The freeze will certainly create a ton of ice from leftover slush and water, but I’m talking about accumulating glaze ice on trees, power lines, etc. It looks like CT is dealing with more of that than eastern MA.

  31. My wife says thank you.!! Think she’s looking forward to this event as much as the pats game!! Lol

  32. Down to 25 here in JP.
    I have not been out as my wife is very sick and needs me here.
    My son shoveled everything out and said he thought 3-4 inches, but some of
    that compacted with the rain and a small amount of melt.

    I like Hadi’s 4.5 inches. That sounds very reasonable for JP.

    My son is going to take some measurements of what is there, but no matter what
    he measures, it will be lower than what actually fell.

      1. Thanks Philip. I have never seen anyone this sick for this long.
        Trip to see Doctor was USELESS!

        I am hoping she turns the corner today.

  35. Thanks, TK.

    We got 8 inches of snow in Sudbury and it has been sleeting/freezing rain pretty constantly and the temp. is 17 degrees. Messy morning, for sure.

    1. Colder there and more snow than here. I hope you are feeling well enough to enjoy and also hope your power stays on

      1. Thanks, Vicki. Both of us feeling about the same. Weird kind of bug – seems to disappear totally for a few hrs. then comes back. I am enjoying all the weather-talk but would have enjoyed an all-snow (fluffy kind) event. Easier to clean up and prettier to look at.

        1. And hoping electricity stays on. With frigid temps. tomorrow and us sick kind of nerving. Worried about our kitty, too if that happens – but she does have a nice fur coat! 🙂

  36. We do not have ice accumulating on trees and railings in south Sutton. Only the thickest pines seem to be drooping and that is only slightly. After the quick fall around 6 am, the temp seems to have leveled at 21. DP is 19

  37. Getting to work tomorrow morning is sure to be an adventure. And not the fun kind. I just finished shoveling and trying to chisel my car out (I have street parking). All around my car is a sleet puddle that goes past my ankles (as an added bonus every time a car went by I would get splashed). My actual street (it’s a short narrow one way) the puddles are even higher.

    I’m going to a show at the Garden tonight (wasn’t planning on driving regardless of weather) and perhaps I should ice skate there?

    1. Son says 75% sleet 25% freezing rain,
      The more sleet the better as far as possible power outages are concerned.

  41. JPDave, First, I am very sorry to hear that your wife is so sick. Second, thanks for the correction on the map with the rain and freezing rain line. Third, in Back Bay I measured 3 inches of compacted snow. My guess is there was more a few hours ago, but it’s compacted at this point.

    My advice to everybody is to clean off your car, shovel the pathways and driveway, and spread some salt on sidewalks NOW. It’s already becoming cement and is very icy.

  43. Sleet pellets in Back Bay. They bounce off everything. I’d say the freezing rain has stopped. Temp here is down to 25.1F.

  44. Philip its been freezing rain where I am with a glaze on the trees. Thankfully I have not lost power. I am hoping that stays that way is were expecting wind gusts to come in with this cold blast and if anything is sagging near a power line with strong wind gusts that is not good.

  45. I was just thinking….
    It looks as though the ice accretion maps from Pivotal Weather may include SLEET.
    Otherwise, they just don’t add up with the surface/precip type maps.

    The maps show mostly sleet for Boston for the duration, yet the accretion map
    shows about an inch. With it sleeting, one does not get ice accretion, one gets an
    accumulation of ice pellets. I don’t get it.

    Something ain’t right.

    TK, any thoughts on this????

    2. I’m not sure of the set-up on these maps. There is something in that algorithm obviously incorrect.

  49. Down to 15 in Andover, with maybe 4 inches of dry sugary snow / sleet on the ground. Glad there is no moisture in it, easy to clear.

  50. Sleet does not weigh down those trees and power lines. Looking at this storm from a CT perspective pouring rain southeastern CT and icing going on elsewhere. Post storm were all going to deal with that blast of cold and wind chills well below zero.

      1. Felt oddly warm out there. I was using the roof rake just a couple minutes ago around the corners of the roof.

      2. That how it should be. I think the Pivotal Weather maps got it WRONG! I Sent them an email for clarification.

  59. Greetings from Miami International Airport! Sammy and I are just returning to reality after a wonderful Disney Cruise. Looks like we will be getting a good old fashioned New England welcome home. As long as our plane doesn’t skid off the runway I won’t complain.
    JpDave – please tell your wife I hope she feels better really soon. But if you need any advocates to get in to specialists let me know – a dear friend is a doctor at the Brigham and will go to bat for me and I for you. These days so much of the time you really have to advocate like crazy to get decent care.

    2. Hi Mama. What a great adventure for you and Sammy. I hope your travels home are safe and relaxing.

      And you sure are right about advocates. Sad but a fact of life I guess

  60. Freezing rain continues here in Coventry CT. 29 degrees. Really starting to get some significant ice accretion on the trees. Just saw a big branch come down in the woods. The 4.5″ of snow and sleet I measured earlier is compacted down to about half that. Need to get out there soon to clear this crap and I’m afraid its going to take me awhile.

  62. Pretty wild here in New England when you think about it. These are the current watches and warnings on the NWS Home page at 11:15

    Special Marine Warning
    Winter Storm Warning
    Coastal Flood Warning
    Flood Warning
    Flash Flood Watch
    Gale Warning
    Wind Chill Warning
    Winter Weather Advisory
    Wind Chill Advisory
    Coastal Flood Advisory
    Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
    Small Craft Advisory
    Wind Advisory
    Freezing Spray Advisory
    Flood Watch
    Special Weather Statement
    Hazardous Weather Outlook

  63. That how it should be. I think the Pivotal Weather maps got it WRONG! I Sent them an email for clarification.

  64. messy messy messy, here in billerica its been going between sleet and freezing rain and sometimes at times I see some snow flakes mixing in with the sleet. I had 6.8 inches of snow/sleet when I measured, it did change over to freezing rain by the time I got out there.

  65. 20F with just sleet in Woburn. we only had a brief. Of freezing rain in minor glazing right at the changeover and so far we’re very lucky here.

      1. I think it may. The cold is deep enough I believe. And it’s not getting scoured back out. Trust me on that one. 🙂

    1. I’m a little suspect. I think they got at least 2 and it was not measured in time. The same thing happened in the Plymouth area. These storms have to be caught at the right time to be measured accurately.

      1. Don’t get me started about what I think about Logan measurements. I still have issue with the Presidents Day Storm (27.5”?) but that is a discussion for another time. 😉

  69. Temp just went from 22 to 25 and some freezing rain was tossed in. Enough to coat railings but not tree limbs from what I can see. Rainings I would think would be first anyway.

  70. We have been near freezing for a while now in North Attleboro. Boundary seems to have stopped its southward progression here for the past couple of hours.

    1. That’s not a coastal front.

      It’s a boundary of the core of Arctic air under the high in eastern Canada.

      There was no coastal front with this system.

  73. what ever happens now, I feel like we get one or two snow events, Not necessarily big events but snow events between tomorrow to the end of the month

  74. We have held onto rain down here, thank goodness …..

    Slight slush though capturing water. Ice capades later.

  75. It’s 32 in East Brudgewater with mod rain. I was expecting it to be freezing rain but its not happening yet. Could this be due to the intensity of the rain dragging the warm air to the surface? sorry if this is a dumb question

  77. couple more hours until it ends and it end as sleet for many not freezing rain. Heard its a mess south of the pike in the areas I thought were going to have bad ice issues.

  78. I know it’s pretty terrible out–not sure if we are having sleet, rain or freezing rain here in Milton. But I just looked out my window and saw my neighbor’s dogs chasing each other in the yard and suddenly it didn’t seem that bad. I’ll just sit here and watch them for awhile.

    1. 1) His tires suck.
      2) He doesn’t need to have his foot on the brake the entire time.
      3, and worst of all) He didn’t clear the snow off his roof. Big no-no.

      1. Belmont hill is always a trouble spot. Why it isn’t heavily sanded is beyond me since they know this.

      2. An alarming amount of people have never read this section of the drivers manual: https://i.imgur.com/gXADMpz.jpg

        And re snow on roof – it’s either a selfish idiot or a stubborn elderly person who can’t reach the roof of their car but still decide they deserve to just zip out. Both are a danger to others.

    2. About the same here in West Hingham. Newbridge and Fort Hill Street (my area) are in pretty good shape for now. Very light freezing rain with temp up a little right about 30.

  81. Now up to 28 ????

    Cold relaxing? Diurnal warming?
    i dunno. Still sleet with what’s left of the precipitation. Not much happening.

    1. There’s a lot of irregularity near the edges of the boundary. Think of it as swirling smoke.

      Once the low gets east of us and we get into the gradient, you’ll get a rapid drop along with wind.

  83. TK – The fact that there was no coastal front (as you mentioned above), is this a more “atypical” system overall?

    1. I don’t really like the term “atypical” that much because it gives people the feeling that we shouldn’t get these or we never get these. We get these. There are just some seasons we don’t, and other seasons we see more than one. It was just not a classic setup and the profile of the atmosphere did not allow for a traditional coastal front. The atmosphere dealt with the contrast a different way with a differently oriented boundary in accordance with the specifics of the set-up.

      I’ve been reminding people online all day and I’ll do it again. The atmosphere is fluid. We have to be careful not to think of the things in it as solid entities. They are anything but.

  84. Re outages – so far so good at least for now:

    National grid:
    159 customers affected

    Eversource:
    305 customers affected

    These numbers are at an error rate of a normal day. Let’s see how it progresses.

  85. Still confident on at least partial if not nearly complete clearing for all but possibly Cape Cod for the total lunar eclipse. But with air temps falling through the singles and wind chill temps far below zero it may be a “watch-the-eclipse-from-a-window” kind of event. 🙂

    Larger scale ideas going forward…
    Pattern readjustment ahead. We get our Arctic Monday / Tuesday, then a decent warm-up at midweek when the next system may produce largely rain, though not a prolific amount. The dry chill returns Friday but a batch of snow showers/squalls may be possible as it heralds a lobe of the PV with some pretty solid cold air January 26-28, which also may present us with a snow threat which would be from a clipper bombing out. Need a little luck with that. After that it’s one more shot of cold and then there are some signs of retrogression and a moderation in the East the first week of February while the trough takes up residents in the West. The East would see a flattish flow over a SE ridge with low amplitude.

    Be cautions of all medium range models, as at least one of them will find a “blizzard” that will be posted on the net and hyped, and then not happen.

      1. If you want to call 34 warm, then yes. It is warmer than what’s coming. You should transition to brief freezing rain and sleet next 2 hours before everything pulls away and then your temp drops rapidly. Flash freeze on the way. Wind has no chance to dry anything off before the temps plunge.

    2. I have been seeing so many people desparate to compare this year to 2015. As if the two have had anything in common at all. So of course any potential blizzards in models two weeks out people will cling to it. Something something confirmation bias.

      1. This is so far removed from the 2015 pattern that it’s laughable. The incessant model posting and 1 to 2 week storm hype is having a very negative impact on people’s perception of weather, and their understanding of it. We know this does not apply to all, especially our collectively intelligent crowd here. 🙂 But seriously, it’s out there, all over the place. I spent more time explaining things that media, social and otherwise, screwed up than I did making my own forecasts this week. I could ignore it, but I am choosing not to. I am choosing to fight it.

        2. Fight the good fight. What’s increasing especially after this storm is the amount of people tweeting @ meteorologists that age old yarn of “if I was wrong this much I would be fired” and the other old yokes. This storm especially people were expecting a foot or more of snow based off the earliest snow maps they put out. Slightly more fristrating is seeing said meteorologists retweet them and respond only to get more troll comments. Ah well.

          1. You cannot fix stupid and at the moment a considerable amount of stupid seems to have climbed out from under something in this country. I get why the Mets respond. In my considerable lifetime, they have always been a target. Social media just gave the naysayers a new platform. But seriously….how can anyone come up with a comparison to 2015?

        3. I get fighting it. I drive my daughter nits because I can’t let some things go. But if I may….it needs to be fought where it might actually have a chance of reaching into someone’s mind. Call the sources. Get others to call the sources.

  86. Long cleanup, pushing sugar around… doesn’t stick together, or compress like snow, just flows… and still coming down.

  87. The front page of yesterday’s Boston Herald had the following headline “BREAD & MILK.” Does anyone know how the products “bread” and “milk” became associated with snowstorms around here?

    Just wondering.

      1. French toast probably started as a joke to people having far too much bread, milk, and eggs leftover after buying a month’s supply for a 12 hour snowstorm. 😉

        1. People were caught without basic necessities in the days following the Blizzard of ’78. Trucks couldn’t get to the stores. When trucks were spotted in town, people called each other and told them that bread and milk had arrived as the stores. I remember loading up our Radio Flyer sled with boxes, getting orders from the neighbors and hiking uptown to get bread, milk and, especially, newspapers!
          That’s how I remember “Bread and Milk”!!!

    2. It started because in post war years many people had bread and milk delivered to their homes daily, and when there was going to be or was already a large storm, these deliveries would be delayed or sometimes halted for a period of time, prompting some people to try stocking up on such items if a large winter storm was expected.

  90. So about a 4-8″ snow and sleet storm for most of SNE with lesser amounts near the coast south and east and pockets of higher amounts well north and west.

    I actually believe this event showed a lot of the strengths and weaknesses of our mid-long range models.

    ECMWF was this first to sniff this event out and offered a pretty consistent signal that disturbed weather would impact us from about 8 days out. It of course was too cold in the long and mid range. It was way too amped. Remember 30-40″? That not only exposed its continual need to throw down way too much precip. 2.5″ plus was modeled. It ended up being about 1.25-1.5″ -Its absurd snow tool was in full force, but in its defense some of those maps that show up on line particularly from that service Mark and JP use are not the ECMWF’s doing. That is some data provider with a bad algorithm that was running about 40% above Kuchera and ECMWF’s own tool which is pretty close to Kuchera with a bit of European non-sensibility thrown in. (Aside, I wish models would only offer a 10:1 snow calculation and let us apply meteorology and climatology to make snowfall forecasts.) Also it had too much snow accumulation from a change back to snow on Sunday. Harvey bit hard on this and I could not figure out why. It was always going to be more open and progressive than the ECMWF was showing. Another issue with ECMWF. Prolongs duration of disturbed weather in progressive patterns.

    GFS picked up late on the event, but actually in the mid range had a pretty good clue that this was going to be not a pure snow event. It also had much better idea on the precip amounts in the mid range. Sometimes its lower resolution does a better job of softening out the sharp features in the atmosphere that tend to get amped up in too much detail by the higher resolution ECMWF. It should not be dimssed as an outlier just because its solution is not popular. For the record If I had the choice of the GFS or the UKMET I would choose the GFS or nothing. Of course as it got the to short term its low res short comings got exposed as it came way up in precip and couldn’t tell snow from sleet.

    JMA not so good….I really always thought this should be south and east and cold. In the end the snowfall amounts I was thinking if I put a map out 5 days ago would have been ok, but how we would have arrived at those amounts would have been totally wrong. Better to be lucky than good….

    3. Outstanding discussion. Thank you very much.

      And you are correct about my service F5 snow algorithm.
      It was developed by the site’s owner who is a met. His name is
      Andre Revering. He swears by his algorithm, which has proven to be
      wrong over and over again.

  91. JMA thank you for that analysis and model comparison. I hope to remember and watch for these tendencies going forward.

  92. TK to add onto the bread and milk thread, my ggfather hadva dairy in buffalo where the snows can be prolific My dad would always be the first out on the roads here and I to this day actually love driving in a storm or after! We still have milk bottles and carriers from the old dairy and pictures from buffalo where the snow banks were as high as a locomotive on the tracks!

  93. SIL shoveled this am. Now the decision to take to pavement or leave the layer. Often we took to pavement and were sorry because when everything froze it was just black ice.

  94. Good afternoon during this pre-game time.

    Many thanks to my son for taking care of the walks and measurements today.

    So, first measurement was at about 9:30 Am and was 4 inches.
    Next measurement just a little while ago. 4 3/4 inches which means
    we had 3/4 inch of ice accretion and sleet accumulation from 9:30 Am to 4PM.

    Also, TK Can correct me if this is too much/litte, I am going to add 1/2 inch
    to that total to allow for compaction and melting during the period
    from 4 AM (change to sleet and then rain) to 9;30 AM. I would rather be
    conservative on this number than over do it.

    So, I am going to use 5.25 inches as the final JP accumulation.

    is everyone OK with that methodology or would someone like to suggest a different
    adjustment.

    Cheers and GO PATS!!!!

    I WANT A B&B SUPER BOWL!!!!! (BRADY AND BREES)

    2. 1/2 inch is a good guess for an add on in this situation. There is never going to be a perfect snow measurement.

  95. So 5.25 as final for JP. What did Boston receive?

    My office desk and computer are all dismantled. I get a new desk Tuesday but will have Alexa remind me to record it then. And I’m going to move the spreadsheet to Dropbox so I can edit on all my devices. Not sure why I have not done this previously

  96. And I made my way to the deck. Awesome night.
    And impossible to move layerbof snow. I can walk on it and I am farrr from
    A lightweight

    1. The Blizzard of 78 answer was probably more accurate than mine, at least for the modern snowstorm era. 😉

  99. Roads have become very bad down here . Restaurant, markets , liquor stores all closing due to the safety of there employees. Classy town !!!!

    2. Us met’s were not kidding when we said flash freeze. And many people were poo-pooing this weather event based on snowfall accumulations. There is more to winter weather events than how much snow falls. Now they know firsthand. 🙂

  101. Stayed sleet the whole time after changeover from snow. Never went over to freezing rain here in Sturbridge. Temp at 22.9 right now, waiting for the crash. JMA great discussion on the models, thank you! As far as the storm in my opinion it wasn’t the blockbuster that models had a week ago, but it’s better than nothing. Now we’re on to Kansas City!!! GO PATS!!!!

  102. Saints got hosed. Should have been a penalty for hitting a defense less receiver. Call happens Rams have one timeout first and goal Saints in all likelihood win the game.

  103. Down to 14 here in Coventry, CT with a wind chill of 4. Took me two hours to clear the heavy slop off the driveway and walkways. Temp dropped from 29 to 19 while I was out there. Wind really picked up and got soaked in the freezing rain which transitioned to wind blown sleet while I was out there. Had a large branch snap and fall in the road and my mailbox is bent on the bracket thanks to the plow. Driveway is a skating rink now. What a pleasant storm!

  104. Couple nice shots of the ice accretion in my yard.

    This on the branches of my Japanese maple:
    https://i.postimg.cc/YS6GWHdX/IMG-9265.jpg

    And some of my tree branches sagging under the weight of the ice:
    https://i.postimg.cc/3x53DbdN/IMG-9267.jpg

    Pretty to look at and fortunately not enough to do much damage. Most of the damage and power outages in CT were in northern Fairfield and New Haven Counties where the freezing rain lasted the longest. Dodged a bullet here.

    1. Lovely photos and you are right that they would not be as lovely had they don’t serious damage. Happy to hear they did not. Thank you.

  105. Thanks for sharing those pics Mark. There have been a lot of those pictures from the ice in CT today.

    1. Thanks Vicki for the article. I have them all around my property which, not surprisingly from the article, used to be farmland as well. I think they really add a lot of character to the yard. They are very common here in Coventry and much of rural CT.

        1. So happy for Gronk! When they were down my kids were upset and I told them you never give up. Incredible game!

          1. I love it Scott. It made my heart happy to see gronk part of this.

            I was txting with my kids and niece and reminded them what My brother and I heard more often than I can count. It was after that I saw the double 9s on my weather dashboard and just knew

  115. That game was amazing. I love this team. KC has more talent, they do. But the Pats gave everything.

    WOOLLL 😀

  119. 0.0F here in Coventry with a wind chill of -10.

    Eclipse in full effect now….moon is about 2/3 gone. Needless to say I am watching from the window!

  122. Absolutely thrilling game! Brady was, well Brady. Many clutch throws!
    Onto Atlanta!!

    Down to 7 here in JP. A bit nippy out.

    Cheers

    Oh btw, had to watch ch 5, so saw Wankum. He had 4.9 inches for Logan. That sounds
    much better. Again 5.25 here in JP.

  123. Some people are trying to say they are having frost quakes now. Never heard of it before. According to wiki “A cryoseism, also known as an ice quake or a frost quake, is a seismic event that may be caused by a sudden cracking action in frozen soil or rock saturated with water or ice. As water drains into the ground, it may eventually freeze and expand under colder temperatures, putting stress on its surroundings.”

    Thoughts?

  124. Greetings now from NYC! A little closer to home than MIA but our flight got diverted to LaGuardia due to the weather. Only caught the game recap on espn (no tv on AA flight) and just the recap literally brought me to my knees. First playoff game I haven’t watched live in my lifetime – and oh what a game to miss! However best game summary of my life for sure!
    GO PATS!!!!

    1. 5 degrees here also, Marblehead. Doing the dripping faucet thing to hopefully keep pipes from freezing.

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