Monday Forecast

153 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)
I bet many of you are tired from dealing with winter weather and perhaps watching an exciting football game, or perhaps some of you, like me are battling with or recovering from a winter cold, so today’s blog update will be short and to-the-point. Kind of taking it easy. First, it’s a bitterly cold northwesterly air flow today with arctic air dominating, and other than a few ocean-effect flurries on the outer part of Cape Cod we’ll see dry weather, then we moderate ever so slightly as high pressure moves overhead Tuesday. This high moves offshore by Wednesday and a cold front approaches, and it warms significantly that the next round of precipitation falls as rain showers, however it may be cold enough at ground level for some freezing rain at the start from this, so something to keep an eye on. This front will get hung up in its attempt to get offshore Thursday and with low pressure riding up along it, it means more precipitation, but this time it will be mild enough for a rain event. However as it pulls away, there may be just enough cold air to end it as a mix or brief snow at night, if the timing is correct. On Friday we’re back to chilly and dry weather for the most part, but a disturbance approaching later in the day and evening may trigger some snow showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Partly sunny. A few snow flurries outer Cape Cod. Highs 5-12. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -15 at times.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -2 to +5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -8 to -15 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18 evening, then slowly rising overnight. Wind light variable evening, light S overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east but may fall as freezing rain at first. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, may end as mix/snow late. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers late-day and evening. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)
Colder air will dominate much of this period. We’ll have to watch the January 27-29 period for potential storminess, but the very early idea is that it may be too far south and east to have a significant impact and we’d just see more energy from the polar jet stream with snow showers. Low confidence. Many days to iron it out. Fair weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)
Large scale pattern retrogression (westward movement) may occur with low pressure scooting back to the west and a flat ridge in the US Southeast. This would allow some milder weather and a westerly flow with minor weather systems passing through the region. Again a low confidence forecast for this period.

153 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK. Hope you feel better soon. We are still battling our colds.

    It is 1 degree in Sudbury. BTW – I think I am first on the blog today! 🙂

      1. Mine doesn’t count because I always posts SAK’s update. You can have the #1. 🙂

        Employees of WHW are not eligible. 😉

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Anyone have the official Logan Snowfall for yesterday?

    I saw a 4.9 but I don’t know if that is the official figure.

    Thanks

    1. I’m afraid it’s 1.6 at the airport.

      4.9 was from somewhere in the city. The seasonal snowfall total will be off a good 3 inches. It’s right up there with the missed pass interference call on the Rams.

        1. I didn’t measure but I think my neighborhood has more than that. Once it warms up a bit, I have a lot more shoveling to do.

  6. Good morning. Wait…what game ???

    Was -4 with -10 DP at 7:45 am. We are rebounding to a toasty -1.

    What a game. Two teams that played their hearts out. Hated to see either one go home.

    2. We’ll never know of course, but it would have been interesting if KC could have pulled off an upset if the game were at Gillette.

      So much for home field. 😉

  8. Here is an excerpt from a Kansas City Sports Radio prior to the game:
    610 AM Sports Radio – Kansas City Sports – KCSP-AM | Radio.com

    The Chiefs are 4 games above .500 vs the Patriots at Arrowhead Stadium all time. They are 5-1 vs the team that cheats and 2-1 against Tom Brady. The Chiefs own the Patriots in KC and Sunday will be no different.

    HA HA HA

    1. That would never appear in our papers or even be a thought.

      We don’t win by standing on the shoulders of others by putting them down. We win by being great. And some day that will pass and even then we will be great.

  9. Well got to love the euro, arctic blasts everywhere except quick warm up for every precip event. The way winter is going.

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Couple of thoughts on the games. First, the terrible officiating in both games. And to think these referees are getting paid to be incompetent, while federal workers at FDA and NWS are not paid because of politicians’ gall and incompetence.

    Unbelievable victory for the Patriots. But, as I listened to one of the national commentators at 2:30am last night on the radio I learned how deep the irrational hatred of the Patriots is, how so many national pundits do not understand the fundamental principle that having the more talented team doesn’t necessarily translate to championships. It never has during the Patriots’ reign. The Patriots have had great players throughout this run, Brady being exhibit A, but much more importantly they have a supremely intelligent coaching staff that prepares the team mentally and physically in ways that other teams do not match. Good coaching decisions are essential in this game. And to give one example, Andy Reid’s dimwitted decision to defer at the beginning of the game yesterday – giving the Patriots’ first possession – is something the national media do not focus on. Intelligence counts for something.

    The commentator I listened to said “it’s okay people, there’s light at the end of the tunnel. … look at all that talent the Chiefs have … and so many teams that have high draft picks and will challenge the Patriots … [he then began naming players] the dynasty will end.” Well, sure, the dynasty will end. But, it’s NOT about individual players. For the purposes of winning the sport has never been about individual players. There are so many examples of great individual players who don’t win because they’re not team-oriented, they have inadequate coaching, and they don’t buy into the team concept. Dez Bryant, Terrell Owens, and many others come to mind. Divas and perennial whiners who never ultimately win anything.

    Think about it for a minute. All those players you see on TV commercials ad nauseam – including Antonio Brown, Beckham, and Rodgers – what do they share in common? An “it’s all about me” attitude. And, where are all of them this post-season and, in fact, most post-seasons? On an island somewhere in the Caribbean.

    Football is the ultimate team sport. It requires meticulous preparation and contingency game-planning, intelligent coaching, teamwork, coordination, dedication, selflessness, and conditioning to win. I wish the national media would focus on these aspects of Patriots’ dominance, and then criticize owners who hire or keep sub-par coaches, the assembly of teams of highly skilled individuals without a clear team concept, and selfishness on the part of so many superstars in the NFL, who in the end, aren’t winners.

    2. Wow Joshua. Exceptional comment. The saddest part is the haters are too busy hating to see why the Pats work and to emulate it. They do things like the Pats did at their first Super Bowl when the Patriots ran out as a team. But they have no idea of the significance of it.

      They remember the pats always deferred when they won the toss but missed last weeks game. Hatred block any chance of common sense

    3. While I agree with you… If national media gave accolades to the patriots – nobody would watch. People tune in because the media finds the negative spin and they usually have a counterbalance who praises the patriots. If you just have people who praise the patriots then only patriots fans will tune in, listen or read the articles. That’s just how it goes. The NFL and especially the superbowl are a product they are trying to sell and outside of New England people are sick of seeing the Patriots in the playoffs and the Superbowl. Having pundits who doubt the Patriots at every turn (even if secretly they admire them which most do) means more interest in the superbowl. Know what else it does? Helps fuel the team energy. Edelman has been selling a shirt saying “Bet Against Us”. Tom had that post Chargers interview where you could tell the negative pundits fueled him. It’s a symbiotic relationship. That we are talking about them is exactly what they want.

      1. What does this say about the American Public that, outside of our immediate area, detests the pats. The media is responsible for how they act? I’m a big fan of personal responsibility……it seems to have disappeared.

      2. I should have said I absolutely agree with you. That we allow ourselves to be so easily manipulated is really discouraging tho.

        1. I don’t see it as allowing ourselves to be manipulated. It’s allowing us to be entertained. Having pundits hate the patriots gives us a reason to watch those haters eat humble pie the next day. I love it. It gets me even more invested in the games. It’s a ratings driven business and I am willing to let it draw me in because it adds to the story and drama.

          1. Ahhhh I see where our disconnect is. We have a different view. I’m always entertained but humble is something I’d rather be than eat

  13. Got down to -9F this morning here in Coventry, CT and I’m not sure if this can even be correct, but my thermometer here at 11:20AM under bright sunshine is still reading -7F. It this point we wont make it above zero today. Brutal. Very pretty outside though with everything white and icy, and the sun shining on it.

  14. This may very well be the coldest day of the entire winter
    Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Really impressive cold shot today (-3F at BDL at 11 a.m.). Temperatures at 850mb not terribly impressive (-24c) – but the core of the cold is actually lower with a nasty -26c at 925mb.

  17. Dr Stupid and Vicki – thanks for the info on the frost quakes. I am certain that must have been what was happening at my house last night. Kept hearing loud bangs in the basement all night long. Went down there twice to check things out!

    1. Mark back in 2015, my son in law went up on our roof in the middle of the night. The noise is scary if you don’t know what it is.

  18. I will add that there needs to be something done with the flags, there needs to be a seperated challenge system that can be done by the teams, for situations like the saints, I hope they talk about this in the league meetings this off season because there were many bad calls this weekend, and I am not going to say in the saints game, it was also very much in the AFC championship as well, It did go both ways. Go figure with the referee team that was at the AFC championship game. Same one as the patriots-colts game.

    1. Of course! Yet another obstacle to snow in SNE.
      Just bring on Spring. Why suffer through wasted cold.

      Someone here coined the best term for this Winter:

      OUR WINTER OF DISCONTENT

      2. 000
        WHUS51 KOKX 211739
        SMWOKX
        ANZ340-350-370-211830-
        /O.NEW.KOKX.MA.W.0002.190121T1739Z-190121T1830Z/

        BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
        Special Marine Warning
        National Weather Service New York NY
        1239 PM EST MON JAN 21 2019

        The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

        * Special Marine Warning for…

        Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point NY out 40 NM…
        Peconic and Gardiners Bays…

        * Until 130 PM EST.

        * Very cold air moving out over the waters around eastern Long
        Island has already produced isolated waterspouts late this
        morning. More waterspouts may be possible into early this
        afternoon.

        HAZARD…Waterspouts.

        SOURCE…Spotter video from late this morning.

        IMPACT…Waterspouts can easily overturn boats.

        * Locations that may be impacted include…
        Shelter Island, Orient Point, Dering Harbor, Great Peconic Bay,
        Little Peconic Bay, Shelter Island Sound, Westhampton Beach, and
        Gardiners Bay.

        PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

        Seek safe harbor. A gale warning also remains in effect.

  23. Regarding the Logan measurement, and my theory as to how it may have ended up so low. I’m using data here from the Logan METARs during the storm. You may find this pretty boring, although I personally love discussions of observation practices, having several years of experience at Blue Hill:

    When measuring snow, standard practice is to measure every 6 hours and clear your snow board. More frequent measurements can produce over-inflated totals. However, an exception to this is when snow stops or changes to mix/rain in between observations. In that case, it is strongly recommended to measure as soon as the snow is done falling to obtain your storm total. I suspect that Logan measured only at 7PM, 1AM, and 7AM (0z, 6z, and 12z) during this storm. At 0z, they likely measured 0.4″, which would make sense given .04″ liquid equivalent. That 0.4 appears in the first PNS issued by NWS Boston. At 6z, they likely measured an additional 1.2 for a total of 1.6, again in line with the liquid equivalent of 0.11″ between 0z and 6z. Snow continued at Logan until just after 9z, with an additional 0.17″ liquid falling as snow. Which would’ve added about another 1.5″. However, snow mixed with sleet shortly after 9z and was all rain by 10z, with steady moderate rain between 10z-12z. It is entirely possible that by the time the 12z measurement was taken, any new snow had washed away, hence no changes to the 1.6″ storm total. But if they were following the rules, they would’ve measured near 9z when the snow changed over. So the actual total for Logan was probably about 3″. This is just my theory, and you’d have to talk to the observer on duty that day to be sure. But that 1.6″ seems too low to me.

    1. WzWatcher, excellent! Thank you.
      What you say makes perfect sense and explains much.

      Do you think their liquid equivalent sounded reasonable?

      I suppose the ratio was higher out here where I am. When it was snowing,
      I had 30 degrees while Logan had 34.

        1. Boston will not get under 20 inches for the season . What are we at now 3” in my opinion only

  25. Where it stayed all snow over eastern NY, VT , NH and ME, the weekend storm did produce. 22″ of new snow at Gore Mtn, NY, 21″ at Sugarbush, VT, 20″ at Killington and 18″ at Sunday River ME. My mother in Amsterdam NY (about 25 miles NW of Albany) received 18″ and I saw a report of 26″ in Saratoga County.

    These areas are having a good winter for snow. The disparity in seasonal snow totals halfway through winter in northern NY and NNE vs SNE is striking…greater than you would see in a normal winter.

      1. Big spread but nice to see it is where it is needed. My brother in Bow NH had pretty much what we had. Glad it didn’t go much further north

      2. Here is the snow report from the Arizona Snow Bowl, which is actually within the Flagstaff, AZ city limits even though it is about
        12 miles North of downtown Flagstaff.

        https://www.snowbowl.ski/snow-report/

        Some place 2 hours North of Phoenix, Arizona can have that much snow and we get ZILCH or nearly so.

  28. Just came in from Chiseling the car off. Broke a snow scraper in two places!
    Figures.

    One good thing… the care started right up. It was 6 degrees while I was doing that.
    It was cold, but not bad. Btw, there were some flurries flying.

        1. You misread it . I said I don’t think Boston will get under 20 inches . I said that in reference to the so called February thaw .

          1. South shore kid says:
            January 21, 2019 at 3:35 PM
            Boston will not get under 20 inches for the season . What are we at now 3” in my opinion only
            Reply
            South shore kid says:
            January 21, 2019 at 3:36 PM
            Not that anyone said 20

            1. Look it knock it off Vicki I made a statement that had absolutely nothing to do with anyone . Knock it off please

              2. SSK. Really? Don’t ever tell me to knock it off. You made a comment that no one said 20. I knew someone personally who did…or close…so reminded you of the guesses….which is meant to be fun Why you are being rude is beyond me but hope If something is bothering you I sincerely hope that it improves.

                1. You crack me up Vicki . Again what I said had nothing to do with snow totals or anything on this blog . How dare you turn this on me . I’m done commenting on this out of respect of this blog . You absolutely love to stir the pot here . Again I said I doubt Boston gets under 20 inches has nothing to do with snow totals or anything . Nice going Vicki !!!!!!

                2. Good heavens. I posted the guesses and you went into orbit. You said…and I quote “Not that anyone said 20”. Hard to say you didn’t. But have a great night. Sometimes stepping away can help and I do hope all is good with you otherwise.

          3. The “so called February thaw” is a speculation I have based on my examination of the upcoming large scale pattern. It actually is not a comment about my snowfall forecast. Although if you want that, I am expecting February and March to be fairly quiet months in comparison to recent patterns, so our opportunities for snow may be limited. If you recall, I put Boston not that far from normal in my winter outlook. They may still very well get close to that. There is a lot of time left. All it takes is a couple events. If yesterday’s event is not including a warm intrusion aloft, Boston’s seasonal snow total may have been at least triple or possibly 4 times what it is now. Just didn’t happen this time.

  32. OK, question de jour….

    What is causing this little very light snow?
    The trajectory would say NO to the lakes.
    It almost looks like it is a bit of moisture flowing around the back edge of yesterday’s departing storm. But not so sure of that either??

    A bit of a trough extending back from the departing storm???

    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

      1. Yes, and it “over-achieved”. I didn’t put the snow showers in the forecast for anywhere except Cape Cod. Oh well. 😉

        1. They amounted to nothing and a lot was through brilliant sunshine so no harm no foul. Or in Sutton it is fowl

  33. Frigid day!!

    One of the few days in history the high temp couldn’t break 10!
    High today was 7. The last time we didn’t hit 10 for the high was January, 2004.
    The all-time minimum high temperature in Taunton was +3 on December 30, 1917.

    A few schools starting to cancel or delay the start of classes. Brockton has a one-hour delay in the morning.

  34. Well I wasn’t going to leave the house but decided to shop. I went to several major stores like Costco, Target and others. I was truly practically alone in these stores.

  35. Following yesterday’s “Bread and Milk” entries, I remembered a photo that appeared in the “Blizzard Edition” of the Mansfield MA NEWS from February, 1978. It took some work today, but I found it.

    https://imgur.com/a/ibFkjJt

    The young man at the counter of Curtis Compact in the stunning Mansfield Hornets cap is yours truly (Private Fantastic? Lil Fantastic?). Notice the carton of milk on the counter behind me. I was a cub reporter at the NEWS and the editor of paper shot the photo while we walked the town on the Wednesday after the storm.

  36. BDL high today was +4. Coldest high since 1981 and 7th coldest high ever recorded.

    I left my house at 1:30PM today and it was still -3F. I’ll be interested when I get home later to see if we ever made it above 0F.

    1. Love this. I have a subscription to newspapers.com which has thousands upon thousands of papers going back many years from all around the country. Not just the front pages but complete papers. The Globe is one of them. I’ll have to find the papers for that week and make PDFs of them.

      1. That’s the original! Obviously, I don’t throw away anything.
        That storm was the “Blizzard of ’78” for 17 days! 🙂

        1. I had the originals around somewhere but sadly I don’t I do anymore. What a great piece of history!

  38. 97% of the Town of Bethany CT is still without power after being one of the towns hardest hit by the ice storm. Must be brutal for those who don’t have generators. Ironically, this is one of the same towns hardest hit by the tornado last May. Bad year for them.

    https://twitter.com/mattaustinTV/status/1087458550434222080

    Also a sad story as the ice storm turned deadly when a tree fell on an Eversource worker in Middletown..

    https://twitter.com/HeatherBurian/status/1087481875684298756

    1. I meant to have my son get some pictures down in Hull (he’s right on the water)…I was too lazy (and warm) in the house today to get out and check for myself.

  43. Tk just curious if the cold today broke any records earlier today or even tonight . Very lightly misting snow here now.

  44. Want to send my sympathy to SAK and your family for your recent loss. I am so sorry.

    I am sure you all heard of the incredibly tragic story of the man from Mansfield who died in an avalanche while skiing with his dad in Taos NM. His dad is a former deacon at my church in Norton. The second victim, who was also trapped under the snow, died earlier today.

    1. I saw that, and he was skiing in bounds at a resort that presumably does avalanche control. Just an awful story.

  45. Today was only the 5th time in Worcester’s recorded weather history that the city failed to reach 0F during daylight, and the first time since 1981.

  47. Well, I think I know where the programmers went wrong with the FV3-GFS. Somebody just basically copied the CMC (GEM) program. HAHAHAHA!! Wow.

    I sincerely hope this project is put on hold because it’s not working out at all! That is one very bad model.

  48. I see you get to sleep in an extra hour later tomorrow morning, Tom!
    Enjoy!

    A greater number of local schools canceling or delaying for tomorrow.

    3. I’m going to be surprised if Sutton doesn’t delay…or maybe cancel. SIL said some of th roads my grandkids go on are coated.

  50. With the weather models being so bad, I will not rule out anything for Sunday to Tuesday period of next week.
    The models will not have a good handle on all the different pieces of energy thats being worked with. Everything needs to line up just right.
    I could see a situation in which a clipper system keeps the larger storm to the south.

  51. From Ryan Hanrahan.
    We snuck up to 5F at some point this afternoon at BDL so today now has the 9th coldest high on record. Still, the coldest max temp we’ve seen since 1981!

    1. Pretty much validates what SAK and I were getting at the entire time. Some of that was even further south than I though in CT and I thought I went way against models like GFS. Short range did well overall but as you see not until the event was almost underway. This is why updates/nowcasting are essential and some people have to stop thinking that we got this locked days in advance (not you, just many people out in the general public in the weather app age).

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