Sunday Forecast

78 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
The final 5 days of January will resent a variety of weather from mild to rain and snow to frigid cold, but will manage to avoid producing a major storm. However that does not mean we will be storm-free. After today’s nearly silent warm front / cold front combo goes through with little fanfare, and an ocean storm misses the area to the southeast later Monday, a front from the west will move in during Tuesday and a new low will form on it Tuesday night, pulling through the region and exiting Wednesday. This system will be responsible for the precipitation variety pack, probably starting as snow, going to rain, and ending as snow. Still have to fine-tune this one early in the week. What will follow it is a bitter blast of arctic air as a lobe of the Polar Vortex swings across the Northeast, although it appears the brunt of this will remain west and north of the region as the lobe starts to pull back into eastern Canada during its passage.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH but a few higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day snow/mix likely, changing to rain at night. Highs 32-39. Wind light variable becoming SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow potential to start, then sun/cloud mix with late-day snow shower possible. Temperatures start out upper 30s to lower 40s then fall rapidly by late-day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Risk of snow or snow showers February 1 from a passing disturbance then dry and cold February 2-3 weekend. Milder weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Leaning a little more toward a milder scenario based on the latest info, but still have to watch plenty of cold air not all that far to the north. May turn a little more unsettle if we are close to the boundary.

78 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  6. The Pats are having their rally right now but here I think we should have a rally for Mrs. OS! Send your best thoughts your energy your everything good that way. Get well!

  7. Just a wild guess,could be a very toasty spring summer, example would be late week in and out cold snap mostly west of SNE. Strong SE ridge weakening frontage passages.

  10. Leaning toward a quick development and a track of the low pressure wave basically bisecting southeastern New England Tuesday night / early Wednesday. Not much snow for the coastal plain in this set-up. May be minor to moderate accumulation over the hills and mountains.

    1. It’s no wonder this blog is so quiet today. 😉

      Hopefully the Patriots win next Sunday and the blog can get active again, at least temporarily. 😀

      1. I get it, but even this set-up is very interesting to me. I love to solve the puzzle and it’s quite pleasurable since I never root for any particular weather over another kind. As is always the case, for me weather is just simply weather, and I just simply love weather and love trying to predict it. Even more than that, I just love to observe it. 🙂

  12. At Middleborough High School, teachers and staff have the same homeroom students from the day walk into the school as freshmen to the day they graduate. That way, we can build up a four-year relationship with them.
    Four years ago, in 2015, I had seniors. It was about this time in the school year that we did not have a single snow/weather day. I remember teasing my seniors about this, that they were going to graduate their senior year without a snow day. Seniors don’t make snow days.

    Several days after my teasing fun with my students, it snowed 14″ on January 27 (four years ago today) and, as you know, it snowed and snowed and snowed and snowed.

    I looked at my records and we had measurable snow for 26 days from January 27-March 6. Around March 1, when I saw my Class of 2015 seniors again in homeroom, I cried “uncle” and apologized to them for my teasing!!!! 🙂

    Needless to say, when I see my Class of 2019 seniors this week to pass out their second semester schedules, my month will remain shut about the lack of snow days this year!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Beach chair goes in June 19!

  13. Caution on the 12z operational ECMWF. To me it looks like it’s having over-amp issues again.

    1. It is doing just that and doing it too fast and then slowing it down. You know all its favorite traits. Even with this it is pretty much 0.3 to 0.5″ QPF Boston Providence Worcester Hartford. Surface temps in the 30’s, 850 temps rising above freezing for at least a portion of the event even north and west of Boston, winds going ESE to WNW, of course the snow maps will pick up on too much snow after the wind direction change.

      Not the snow maker set up….

      1. “not the snow maker set-up”…the theme of the 2018-2019 winter thus far….maybe one good set-up in the next 6 weeks….maybe?

  14. Joshua ~ You said last week that you thought Sharon and Mansfield had the jackpot snow amounts in the Blizzard of ’78. I think you are right. In a story I wrote for the Mansfield NEWS, I reported a 45″ for Mansfield. I don’t remember how I came up with that number. I think that was too high, but not by much. It was virtually impossible to get an accurate reading because of the snow drifts.

    I found this data from an official NWS station in West Norton (still operated by a retired NWS employee) who measured 38″ for West Norton which is the closest station to Mansfield.

    https://imgur.com/PT2NCzu

    I believe that Woonsocket RI had the most “official” snow in the Blizzard of 1978 at 38″

    1. There were a lot of data holes back then that didn’t get into most “official” publications. The only place that a complete and accurate accumulation map of that storm exists is the Northeast Snowbook, produced by the MA State Climatoloist and his assistant. I knew both of them, worked with one of them, and have a copy of many seasons of it, including 1978. 🙂

  17. We are 2/3 through meteorological winter and Boston has less than 2”. Throw in the towel and let’s go for the record!

  18. JPD….Hope Mrs. OS get’s better soon. It’s been a fall/winter full of ailments for a lot people here on the blog (including myself). Hope all get better soon.

  19. TK ~ A favor, if you get some free time. If you have the Northeast Snowbook handy, can you let me know what the snowfall amount total for the Blizzard of 1978 for the station closest Mansfield was? Also, how about Sharon?

    Finally, what was the greatest snowfall total for any Massachusetts town for that February 6-7, 1978 storm according to that book?

      1. I’ve waited nearly 41 years. I can hang in there for a little longer! 🙂
        Thank you, sir!

  20. Not a coastal snow maker, but like TK said it’s an interesting evolution late Tuesday into Wednesday. Dealing with a storm in mid-redevelopment as it passes us. The 12z trend was generally both colder and higher QPF for places like northeast PA and far northern NJ, which I was forecasting for today. Some winter storm watches are up now in portions of NY and PA.

    Wednesday afternoon and evening also look really interesting. Still a few days away, but looks to be about as good a snow squall setup as you can get ahead of the Arctic front. Strong wind potential too. The model soundings are really impressive with the depth of the mixed layer.

    1. I was just looking at that snow squall threat and I’m already excited about it. 😉 I’ll be in central MA too and may be able to “chase” if road conditions allow it. Otherwise I’ll just go to where the best one will be nearby and sit there. 🙂

  21. Thank you all for your kind wishes.
    Zero improvement today, which is day 28 of this ridiculous bug. I have never seen anything like it. Never. I had Scarlet fever ad a kid, and I was no where near sick as my wife is.

    1. One of my coworkers missed 3 weeks of work and when they were back on the 4th week they had to leave early most of the days. Horrendous. They are much better now thankfully. Wonder if it’s the same family of virus. Whatever it is, being sick is bad enough but that plain sucks.

      1. I was sick for more than a month in the fall. Had a fever and felt incredibly lethargic. Numerous doctor appointments and they never figured out what it was. I finally started to get better on day 31, but it took another week or so to fully recover. All the doctors could tell me was that it was some sort of virus.

  22. NWS has their typical 3 snow maps, expected, high end, and low end, for the Tuesday / Wednesday event. I currently lean between low end and expected.

  24. Thank you, TK.

    Sending best wishes to Mrs. OS.

    Spent part of this weekend in Norwich, Vt. Quite a contrast between what they have in terms of snow and also temperature and what we have in Boston. A pleasant, wintry chill up there yesterday with a morning snow squall that left a dusting on top of the crusty, compacted snow. Still a lot of snow on the ground from previous storms. Snow flakes were flying again and accumulating when I started my return back home today. When I got to Boston it felt and looked like early spring. Balmy almost, with of course no snow on the ground, and thin ice with large areas of open water on the Charles. Still hasn’t frozen over completely. Got close last week, but then the melting started again. I fear that the same will happen this week. And with the changing sun angle making its presence felt, ice formation on large bodies of water becomes progressively more difficult. This is why very cold periods like we had last March hardly ever cause the Charles in Boston to freeze over. All in all, yes, I’m disappointed in this winter in SNE. But, that’s just me. I know that this winter suits many people just fine.

  25. Paul Newman would have been 94 today. Amazing actor and amazing individual. I will plan to watch Butch and Sundance this week. Best ever quote

    “Boy, I got vision, and the rest of the world wears bifocals.”

  26. Sue, thanks for posting Mike Wankum’s tweet with forecasted snow totals, which could have been called “winter theme 2018-2019.”

    https://imgur.com/a/FJdYqY4

    The Siberian lake Baikal is frozen solid from one end to the other. It’s an enormous lake. I believe it’s the world’s largest and deepest. I do like these images of a person walking across the lake:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/gifs/comments/ak82h8/walking_across_frozen_baikal_lake_in_siberia/

  28. According to Barry, near 50 next Sunday!

    And if my memory is correct, he had “25” for next Saturday?

      1. The oscillations would have been more wild if we were getting warm spikes like we did in 2012. The ones we are getting have been generally modest, such as today’s. The Thursday one was an anomaly as far as this winter goes. Not that many “warm” days overall.

            1. At least we won’t need to worry about massive snow banks in the streets of Boston next week. 😉

          2. A little early for that prediction let’s get through the rest of this winter & 3 seasons that come after

            1. Oh, sorry, my bad. 😛 Thanks for setting me straight boss. I’ll follow your directions from now on. 😉

Comments are closed.