Monday Forecast

97 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
High pressure brings seasonably cold weather to the region today. If you’re up early enough you may see a deck of clouds hiding the rising sun. These clouds are with an ocean storm that is missing the region. A couple hundred miles further west with that system and we’d be digging out from quite the snowstorm later today. But, not the case. The next winter weather event arrives later Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a new low forms on its trailing front in the Middle Atlantic. This low will likely track right across southeastern New England Tuesday night, and this track will produce a snow-to-rain-to-snow scenario for many areas, but it may stay as snow/mix in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH throughout the event, where even though it won’t be a prolific producer, snow amounts there will be the highest. Before the arrival of this system, some eastern coastal areas of MA may see some ocean effect snow showers due to an onshore flow developing during the day Tuesday. As for the precipitation produced by the low, all areas end as snow at least briefly around dawn Wednesday as colder air rushes back in behind the departing low, and perhaps just enough to create some slippery travel for the morning commute in areas that didn’t really see any accumulation previously – something to watch for that morning. An arctic cold front will cross the region later Wednesday, bringing one of the better snow shower and snow squall chances we’ve had in a while. But squalls or not, the door will be open for a bitter blast of air, not quite to the degree of the one of January 21, but with more wind, making it feel just as cold if not a little colder when you factor that in. This will be for Thursday, the final day of the month. Triple-F Day, otherwise known as “Friday February First”, will open the new month on a cold note, but not as cold as the day before, as the core of the cold will have moved up in to the Canadian Maritimes by then. Earlier I had been thinking that we could see a sneaky snow event on that day, but at this time my feeling is that will be suppressed well to the south and pass through the Mid Atlantic region as a relatively minor system as high pressure builds in across New England.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: High cloudiness hides the early morning sun then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers eastern MA coastal areas. Highs 30-37. Wind light NE to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Late-day snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
February 2-3 weekend looks dry, starting chilly ending milder as high pressure first over the region then sinks to the south and east. February 4 looks mild with possible rain showers. Windy, cooler, drier weather arrives February 5 as a cold front moves through and offshore. Will watch for a minor low pressure system with a threat of snow/mix by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Seasonably chilly early period, milder following this with the next storm threat likely to be a Great Lakes system with mix/rain threat here, then a chilly end to the period. Confidence on timing low.

97 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    And the pathetic Winter continues.
    I suppose they can’t all be snowy.
    Bring on SPRING!

  4. What is Barry seeing that make him think we still end up above average? Or he is just digging his heels in like the other BB did with Malcom Butler last Super Bowl?

    1. The latter, I’m sure. There is nothing that suggests we’ll be above average in snowfall, as much as I would like to see that. At this sad point, let’s go
      for the record least snowiest Winter. Why not?

      2. Completely agree. I think the least snowiest winter is an increasing possibility.

        And even I am now begging for spring. This has been and will continue to be a roller coaster ride of temperature swings and endless cutters after the high pressure areas “sink south and east” (as TK mentions in almost every forecast).

    1. Thank you for the maps.

      Good luck willing it away!!!! Don’t blame you as I also hate being sick.

      Can you take elderberry? You can get from Amazon but it takes a while. Whole foods has the organic syrup.

    1. I’ve been pondering that….kept me up a good part of the night. 😉 But I think I have it figured out now.

  9. Hmmm

    Any room for shenanigans with this Tuesday into Wednesday system???

    I see that the Euro is a bit more robust than some other guidance and the
    3KM NAM seems to keep the snow in longer than others as well.

    I dunno….we shall see.

  11. Can I pretend that my lack of posting a number for our snowfall contest this winter actually defaults to a proactive guess of zero inches? Just kidding – I know it doesn’t… but it might have been my only chance at ever having guessed even slightly close!

    1. hahahaha – I’m sort of hoping mine might actually be close this year. After all the prize is worth the wait!!

    1. I totally agree. It’s still Jan. and I am still betting we get at least one decent snowstorm before the spring really gets going.

  15. According to the Sudbury Underground weather we are now 50 degrees! Wow. Getting out my spring jacket right now.

    Sudbury Underground weather has been a bit off lately.

  16. Thanks TK.

    We went skiing at Mount Snow yesterday. Snowed the entire afternoon and conditions actually got better as the day went on. Eyeballing it, there were about 2-3″ I cleared off the car when we left. It was VERY windy at the top with blizzard conditions at times. A couple of the lifts shut down due to the winds.

    They look to be in good shape for the storm tomorrow as well with another 6-10″ expected. It continues to be the “tale of two winters” here in New England!

    1. That 20 min squall might end up Logan’s biggest storm of the season….

      ….if the guy who makes the measurements records it before it blows away.

      1. You beat me to it. Wouldn’t that be something!
        the biggest snow storm of the year was a silly snow squall. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!Q*#(!*)#(*)!(@#*!(@*#)(!*@(#

  19. Mark, your expression “a tale of two winters” is so accurate. It’s also the case that there’s no real middle ground in New England this year. I noticed on my drive up this weekend that there was virtually no snow on the ground until I got to Northern New England, and then two things happened: 1. The temperature dropped (Norwich was at least 14 degrees colder than Boston on Saturday and Sunday); 2. The snow piles got much bigger. There wasn’t much of a transition area.

    2. Note as well that if you take the cities from NYC area and SNE out, the vast majority of remaining cities in the East are having a near to above normal winter for snow.

      Even here in CT at BDL, we are only 5″ below normal snow on the season.

  21. 12z GFS, FV3 and Euro look interesting around 2/7 with a storm tracking to our southeast near the benchmark. But as has been the case most of the winter, we look to have too much warm air being introduced and precip type issues.

    Here is the 12z Euro snowmap thru 240 hours:
    https://imgur.com/a/UA6CquB

    The areas with the goods keep getting more. Those without stay without.

  22. There is no way we end up breaking record for least snowy winter. Way too much time left. Also looking over first week of Feb not looking as warm as it did a few days ago.

    1. I agree Hadi I think we pay for it in February. It seems to be going back & forth on February’s tempature . I don’t think it’s a record breaking low snow total in my opinion only .

    2. I agree the odds are very much against it. Only takes one decent sized storm and there is lots of time left.

    1. John R Emra‏ @johnremra · 2h2 hours ago

      Replying to @ryanhanrahan

      You know someone is going to throw this in your face when we get some big storm. I for one won’t. I will just enjoy it if you’re right.

      Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan · 2h2 hours ago

      Lol im sure. Winter has basically been snowless for half the state. No major threats on the horizon. We probably will get something but I’m personally done with this winter.

      1. Trend is “safest” bet. What we’ve had is the kind of winter it’ll be all the way through. Maybe something hits is but in the end, it’ll be one of those low amount years that brings the high snow total years down to makeup the average over time. Look forward to the 2.5 minute per day daylight gain and 60 days-ish only to April.

    2. I think it’s funny how frustrated these people get knowing full well that not every winter is above normal snowfall. How come they can’t just accept it as it is? 🙂

      2. Come on TK, you’ve gotta admit that tracking/forecasting the Feb 2013 blizzard or the 2015 snow blitz is a hell of a lot more interesting than this relentless crap pattern (whether you are a snow lover or not)

        🙂

      3. Tracking a storm is a thrill. You know I’m happy with whatever the weather brings. But I also,love the anticipation. I miss that anticipation….could be a snowstorm, a thunderstorm, a power outage, and on and on. It is hard not to put too much weight on one word rather than seeing the whole package. But I see what he is saying.

    3. Isn’t a meteorologist a scientist studying the weather? Why would such a person get frustrated by the weather?

      I am a mathematician, but before Andrew Wiles proved Fermat’s Last Theorem, I was really not rooting one way or the other! But, I must admit that I am still very upset that 7 + 12 = 19. I will carry the pain of this fact to my grave.

      2. I work at a consulting firm doing transportation engineering. A larger more complicated design project is always more interesting to me than a smaller quick hit job such as a traffic impact study for a small development.

        Similarly, in weather, I think most meteorologists and arm chair meteorologists would find a more active, variable weather pattern, or an extreme weather event such as a hurricane or big nor’easter far more interesting to track than, say, (very hypothetically speaking) a relentless winter pattern of rainy cutters separated by cold/dry weather 🙂

  25. I find the discussion above interesting. I think SClarke said it perfectly. I’m not sure why someone like Hanrahan decided to get into this field if he wasn’t interested in forecasting all types of weather. I mean, you can feel “bored” or disappointed personally but seeing those feelings become public and repeated and in a way that goes beyond a casual offhand comment genuinely degrades my confidence in him as a forecaster. We need a count on how many times he has used the word “torch” in the past three months. It’s laughable.

    We do not get boring weather in this part of the country in the cool season. Ever. There are always adverse weather elements in the Northeast this time of year. In fact, there are very few places in the CONUS that ever get extended (month+) stretches of what most people would consider truly boring and non-impactful weather. If you can’t focus yourself on and enjoy forecasting something that’s not a blockbuster, like this coming small to moderate storm or the snow squalls Wednesday, I don’t see why you would get into forecasting at all. Those big ticket events come a couple times a year. Hardly enough reason to jump into the field IMO.

    3. I agree and disagree. When I read bios of some of the on air meteorologists, there is usually some type of weather event (like summer thunderstorms, a hurricane or tornado, blizzard of 78, winter storms in general) they mention that fascinated them as a kid and peaked their interest in weather. Nobody says, “When I was 8 years old in the winter of 2019, we had this pattern of rain storms with cold spells in between. It was awesome. From that point forward I wanted to be a weatherman”. It’s human nature to be more captivated by the more extreme weather events and living in the northeast, we are spoiled by our variability of weather.

      I know from following Ryan’s posts on Twitter and American Wx, he enjoys forecasting a wide variety of weather but winter storms and thunderstorms are of peak interest to him. I don’t see anything wrong with that and he is not alone there. For other mets it might be forecasting summer t-storms, a rapid temp drop from a backdoor cold front, a snow squall or whatever.. Regardless of what job you have, you are going to enjoy certain components of it, certain projects, or certain situations more than others.

      As for publicly making it known how you feel on Twitter? Not sure I would do that. But it is a different day and age now I guess.

      1. That’s all certainly fair, and you make a good point in the first paragraph; the big events can definitely serve to spark that initial interest.

        1. I have found Hanrahan to become increasingly more arrogant and close minded as he breathlessly will post model outputs that depict the pattern he wants to develop in 2 or 3 weeks or the potential of a winter storm. When a respondent offers a reasoned counterpoint he slams them down saying they don’t know what they are talking about, as he surrounds himself with social media sycophants who tell him how great he is.

          I have lost a bit of respect for him this winter as he has come off as bit of a bitter, disillusioned weather cheerleader instead of an experienced forecaster.

          I for one have enjoyed the challenge of this pattern. Not too mention it has worked out almost exactly to script as pointed to in the Fall months. Significant snowfall NNE. Greater snowfall potential Mid Atlantic and SNE left in the middle with below average snowfall.

          I did expect the Cape and Islands to get a pretty good snowfall from an event that largely misses SNE but that has not happened.

          There will be plenty of years to come where I lose it badly, but I hope I can better in overcoming my confirmation bias.

          1. Well said, and while maybe a little harsher than what I went with, I agree with you. I don’t have a problem with directly calling out what should be viewed as unprofessional behavior. And I too have found it to be a fun and challenging up and down pattern.

  26. As far as I am concerned, the models been crap, so what is it for us to say that what they are showing in Febuary/March arn’t garbage as well? 😉 I say we get 2 or 3 big ones and one of them happening when everyone even nature starts to think its spring 😉

  28. Here are the “bare” facts on Logan snowfall to date: 🙁

    Total to date = 1.8”
    Departure from normal = -20.2”
    Total to date last year = 24.6”

    1. 1936-37 = 9.0”
    2. 2011-12 = 9.3”
    3. 1972-73 = 10.3”

  31. Seems there is some interesting weather set to arrive in Atlanta tomorrow. My sister in laws first chemo treatment was rescheduled from tomorrow till Wednesday because the offices will be closed. They are expecting ice.

  32. JMA, your winter forecast didn’t miss by much as a large ocean storm narrowly missed the Cape and the Islands. The milky sky we saw in Boston this afternoon was from that storm several hundred miles east of us. Had that storm tracked 50-75 miles west the Outer Cape and Nantucket would have had their private snowstorm.

    As for the dichotomy between SNE and NNE this year, it’s striking. Can’t say I’ve ever seen it this different. There have been years (eg, 2015) that SNE was in the jackpot zone and NNE was not. But, NNE got snow that year. Plenty of it, in fact. This year, they’ve got plenty we’ve got essentially zilch.

    Logan’s incremental increases in snow total (0.1, 0.6, 1.2, 0.7) are pitiful. That looks to continue tomorrow night. I think Logan gets 0.7.

  34. JMA and Wxwatcher – I don’t believe either of you get NBC Connecticut and have the opportunity to watch Ryan deliver his forecasts every night but he is excellent. Smart guy, explains things thoroughly, very good delivery, and he does not come across at all as arrogant or rooting for any particular type of weather event on the air. IMO, the best on air meteorologist here in CT by far and the reason he was awarded the Chief Meteorologist position on NBC. I think it was well deserved.

    Off the air, on social media however, you can afford to be less formal and more opinionated yet you still have to be mindful when you are in the public eye that everything you write can be read by your viewers. I agree that he is a bit more liberal at times on Twitter than he probably should be given his position.

    1. Thank you Mark. I’m struggling with this conversation. I appreciate your comment and your first hand perspective

  37. I’m concerned about Wednesday. Especially if the timing lines up with the evening commute as currently looks possible. Some of these squalls and wind gusts will mean business. I can’t get over the depth of the mixed layer. It looks like something you’d see off the Great Lakes during a lake effect event.

  38. Snow squalls like summer thunderstorms they won’t last long but if your caught in one it could pack a punch. I noticed this year a new warning for snow squalls. Will see if any of SNE gets a snow squall warning.

  39. I love JMA’s “cheerleader” comment above. The weather doesn’t gather energy from cheerleading like a sports team does nor will it follow a model like a perfectly scripted play out of a fear the coach will get pissed. The weather will do what it does!

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