Wednesday Forecast

298 Comments

3:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
The front and low pressure area that produced snow and rain overnight is on its way out now and today we await the arrival and passage of an arctic cold front, still expected to deliver snow showers and snow squalls to the region from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. These can drop visibility very quickly to near zero and also deposit a small accumulation of snow in short order, making for hazardous travel, so if you plan to be on the road later today, be aware of this possibility. This front will lead a shot of bitterly cold air into the region, along with wind, making the feel of this air mass rival that of January 21, even though the actual air temperatures will probably not be quite as cold as they were then. But I’m splitting hairs here – it will be very cold. Thankfully, we’re not actually getting into the full core of this cold air mass, as the heart of the air mass will peal northeastward and stay just north of our area as it heads back up into eastern Canada. So after this somewhat eventful end to the fairly uneventful month of January, what do the first few days of February have in store? The answer: Not much. It will be a quiet period of weather with temperature moderation taking place as high pressure moves overhead on Friday and then sinks to the south of the region during the course of the weekend. Although I cannot say with confidence the sky will be 100% clear on the morning of groundhog day, odds favor any small or large rodents that wander around outside will have a decent shot at seeing their shadows on Saturday morning, unless they rise before dawn! So there’s my groundhog day prediction! I will not venture to predict the score of the super bowl at this time – after all, it’s 5 days away and too early for numbers. 😉
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with snow/mix southeastern NH and northeastern MA and rain MA South Shore to Cape Cod diminishing. Sun/cloud mix mid morning on. Snow showers/squalls arriving from the west in central MA and southwestern NH by later in the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers/squalls likely. Briefly very low visibility in falling and blowing snow with accumulations of a coating to 1 1/2 inch possible. Clear overnight. Lows 3-10. Wind W 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill falling well below 0 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 0.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Monday February 4 will be a milder day overall with a warm front producing scattered rain/ice then a cold front later with rain showers. Fair, breezy, but on the mild side Tuesday February 5. Current expecting timing brings a risk of rain/mix February 6 and 8 although neither look like big storms as the overall pattern will be fairly zonal with split jet streams.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Fairly zonal pattern with disturbances producing possible unsettled weather about February 10 and again toward the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

298 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK.

    We received about 2.5” of compacted snow in Coventry, Ct. Started as snow and was briefly heavy. Accumulated about 2 inches before changing to rain for a few hours, then went back to snow and received another inch on the back end. I will say this storm was very well modeled.

    NW CT had the jackpot with several reports of 6”. Large variations in snow across the state over very short distances in the vicinity of where that rain/snow line set up.

    1. We had about 5″ of snow over here in Enfield, CT overnight. I started to shovel it this morning but the snow was a bit heavy so I used the snowblower. Now at 12:30pm the street and my driveway are dry with a decent amount of melting going on out there.

  2. Wind advisory, wind chill advisory, and special weather statement for high impact snow squalls have all been issued by the NWS this AM for the majority of SNE.

    352 AM EST Wed Jan 30 2019

    …HIGH IMPACT SNOW SQUALLS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM THIS
    EVENING WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL…

    The rain and snow will have exited eastern New England in time for
    the morning rush hour. Untreated roads across interior southern
    New England will remain snow covered and slippery. Some black ice
    may develop along the Boston to Providence corridor as
    temperatures fall below freezing.

    While dry weather will prevail through early afternoon, an arctic
    cold front will approach from the west. High impact snow squalls
    are expected to cross western MA/northern CT between 3 and 5 pm,
    and eastern MA/RI between 5 and 7 pm. The snow squalls should
    exit the southeast New England coast by 8 pm.

    These snow squalls may be quite widespread, resulting in briefly
    very heavy snow, strong winds, and near white – out conditions.
    While snow squalls will last less than 30 minutes in most
    locations, very hazardous travel is expected during part of the
    evening rush hour. Snow accumulations of a coating to 1.5 inches
    are anticipated, but can not rule out very localized 2 to 3 inch
    amounts.

    Motorists planning travel this evening should be prepared for high
    impact snow squalls and very hazardous travel.

    $$

    Frank

  4. Thanks TK
    Looking forward to watching those snow squalls develop later today. Safe travels to anyone who is traveling later today.
    4.6 with this latest system measured at BDL where the official record keeping is for inland CT. Snowfall for the season is up to 19.6 inches. That measurement was taken at midnight so will see if a touch more is added to that total and with any snow squalls later today. With the 6.5 inches of snow back on the 20th of January BDL will be close to if not a little bit above average for snowfall for the month.

    1. January is about 12-14” at BDL on average and about 40-42” for the season. Just missing the big one….and a fairly quick snow pack dissipation rate has made it seem less

  6. I am a giddy school boy today!

    Snow squalls and dirunal temperature swings are my two most fascinating weather topic. Have potential for a good squall day.

    I know poop on me all you want, I am no different than you all when some of my favorite things come along.

    Being serious-There is the potential for a brief period of very dehibilitating weather conditions this afternoon. It only takes a second for something unforeseen to happen. Today your weather app radar is your friend to verify if the squalls do form and timing.

    1. I’m right with you on the squalls and temperature swings. I’d take a winter with a handful of those over a series of big snowstorms if I had to choose between the 2. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK !

    Can’t time the weather ….. for us, the squalls would have been better last night. Tonight’s a full schedule, of course between 5:30 and 8:30 for my kids sports/theatre etc.

    Well, if I see the likely squall line on the radar approaching, they can miss a Wednesday night of activities.

  9. Good morning and thanks TK!
    We have about 3 1/2” on the ground here in Sturbridge. Waiting for the evening show! 🙂

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ground was dusted white this morning.

    Last night it started snowing around 9ish and within 15-20 minutes it was mixed with sleet and then 10 minutes later it was all sleet and by 10ish it was all rain. It was 35 and not even a coating on the ground.

    Latest HRRR has backed off on the SQUALL accumulations. Where yesterday it had a general 1-2 inches, now it has .1 to .7. See, I always find a way to be disappointed.

    Although, I must say it looks mighty impressive on the HRRR 11Z loop

    https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/animations/11Z-20190130_HRRRNE_prec_ptype-1-18-10-60.gif

    1. Maybe Pete yesterday was right after all. He didn’t think they would be very widespread. We will see.

    2. As I mentioned yesterday a lot of numbers again were tossed out on a basic squall that was over 24 hrs out . I still think these are hit & miss as JJ said a summer thunderstorm. My opinion only

        1. You are not my friend lol . I sincerely hope your wife starts improving. I’ve been home out of work for weeks tending to my wife’s illness.

          1. You are a good hubby.

            Confirmed pneumonia so she needs me here
            a while longer. We shall see how she tolerates
            Azithromycin.

            1. I suspect you have been home as well . I haven’t seen a check since Xmas but family first . It definitely has helped me being home . Hang in there old salty

              1. Yes, I have been home, but not missing checks. Fortunately, I can
                get some work done from home.
                Sitting at my desk here it is just like being at my desk at work.

                I am only working part time 4 hours a day now, so I get 4 hours in over the course of the whole day, albeit broken time periods.

                wishing your wife a speedy recovery.

  12. Not looking promising for snow through at least mid-February I see. 🙁

    I am not counting today’s squalls.

    1. I’m going with my gut, and it tells me that both winter cold and snow will be pretty much be a non-factor in February and March. We’re as good as done. And I’m ready for spring, or for a move up to Caribou.

      I think that once the upcoming short-lived cold hits the region, coastal SNE will not see another night with temperatures below 15F until December. The zonal flow looks to take over and be persistent, mild, and maybe even less promising for snow than January (if that’s even possible) because this time around the cold will locked up north about 150-200 miles from here.

      This doesn’t mean that low pressure areas won’t be a factor. They will. And they will be rather frequent. And what will they bring? Mostly rain.

  13. Thank you, TK

    Ditto what Mark said for amounts and appropriate timeline in Sutton. Two hour school delay.

  16. I think the bigger story today is the extreme cold coming in tonight with the strong winds & windchills below 0 tomorrow

    1. Appreciate the kind words thank you she is on the mend hopefully but unfortunately her condition is lifetime .

  18. JPD – so sorry to hear your wife has confirmed pneumonia. I’m glad you can be with her. My #3 grand has reactions to antibiotics. Zithromax is the one she can tolerate but daughter has to cut the pill in half. Wishing for the very best for Mrs. OS.

    SSK – I’m also sorry to hear your wife has not been well and glad you can take the time to be with her. This has been such a difficult start to the year for all. I’ll keep your wife in my prayers also.

  19. Joshua don’t count things out too quickly. I know it’s a disappointing winter but you have a tendency to wave the white flag too quickly 🙂 We know spring isn’t coming anytime soon around these parts.

    JP hope you are wife gets better!!!

  22. From Meteorologist John Homenuk
    Snow squalls continue to look impressive later today in PA, NJ, NY, CT and SNE. Great dynamics driving these, and notice the presence of some surface based instability as well! These aren’t your run of the mill snow squalls in the Northeast.

  23. From Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Some nasty snow squalls this afternoon – brief blizzard conditions are possible in some towns with heavy snow and strong winds. Will only last about 10 minutes but could drop a coating to 2″

  25. Here is a current look of squalls on radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CCX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25814332&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    And 13Z HRRR depiction for 10AM

    https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2019013013/NE/HRRRNE_prec_ptype_002.png

    2. Nice job sir !!

      Sorry to read that your wife has pneumonia, however, if I read correctly, she is on something now and hopefully that will help.

  26. There are snow squall warnings with that line in central PA in the Williamsport State College areas.

  27. TK to your above post – Yes temps swings are maybe my first love. I wrote a lot about them in my school research.

    One of my favorite periods locally was October 2017 when had numerous mornings in the 33-38 range and afternoon highs 73-78. It went on for several days in a row. Best one I can ever remember was a 32 – 81 swing.

    1. JMA You had mentioned yesterday you think next winter could be the same as this winter & Tk made mention too this as well recently. This far out ( real far ) what may you be seeing again this far out that may lead you to think that as I am very curious. Thank you JMA .

      1. I think for JMA and TK, it isn’t as far out as it is curious as it seems. Two summers ago in July, when TK and a few of us had the pleasure of meeting in Marshfield, TK called last winter to a tee. I know that isn’t a year ahead but just a few months shy.

        And on that note, sadly, we will not be heading to Humarock this year. Hopefully, in 2020.

        3. I’m just curious that’s all . I find it fascinating that they both made reference to something a year out & Would love to learn the thinking behind it .

  28. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like an interesting aft./evening.

    SSK – prayers and best wishes for your wife.

    JP – sorry to hear she has pneumonia and hoping medicine will help. Prayers and best wishes for her , also.

      1. I have no real symptoms so to speak – just occasionally feeling crappy, not much energy. Still some congestion. But husband has had bad deep cough for over 3 wks. Was checked and ok. He feels reasonable but cough is lousy. Weird bugs certainly going around this season. Thank you for asking. Prayers for your sister-in-law, Vicki.

        1. Good news for you. Not so much for your husband. This seems a repeat of last year. Just nasty.

          Thank you for the prayers. She is undergoing her first treatment right now and I’m on pins and needles. I do wish she were not alone. But thanks to you and others, I know she is surrounded by prayers and positive thoughts.

    1. Like absolute horse poop. Tis the season. Went to work yesterday and that was a mistake. Stayed home today.

  31. From Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Every one of our high resolution models has a strong signal for intense snow squalls this afternoon – starting around 3 p.m. A brief period of blizzard conditions, thunder, and potentially dangerous driving conditions will develop. Be safe. Early dismissals not a bad idea.

  32. There was an interesting discussion by the talking heads this morning while I drove to food shop. They seem to feel the league wants the Pats….not, of course, because it likes the Pats but it doesn’t want the embarrassment of a black mark beside a Rams win.

    Me? I cannot see how anyone….no matter how much he or she detests the Pats….can root for the Rams. Wanting a team that is there due to a glaring error is beyond every sense of fair play I have.

    Anddddddd….I really wish folks would stop saying blowout. We all know what can happen when it is expected to be a blowout…which it never should be at this level.

    Phew…now that I have that off my mind, I can work.

    Back to our regularly scheduled program.

  34. I don’t think it will be a blowout I think the pats will need to do everything they can to win & same for rams . I think the saints got screwed but the rams are very good & the pats know they have there hands full . Go pats !!!!

    1. Agree. Not sure I could place a score, but something along the lines
      of 36-30 or 36-33 Pats. It will be hard fought and close with a decent
      amount of offense.

      We shall see. What do they say? On any given Sunday???

      1. I agree and I also have never thought it would be a blowout. It is something I would never expect any more than I can put numbers to a game. Just me and one of my superstitions.

  35. SSK and JPD, I’m sending thoughts of healing to your wives. I’m very sorry to hear about their illnesses. Health is everything.

  36. Hadi, you are correct, I am prone to raising the white flag too soon. I’m hoping my gut is wrong. But, it’s been a disappointing winter and that does appear to continue, with of course flash appearances like the coming two days.

  41. SSK and JPD: Know of my support and prayers for your wives, you and your families.
    Day at a time, amigos!

  45. Hi everyone! I have been lurking as needed this winter. Can anyone tell me approximately when this squall line that is supposed to come through will be in the Worcester area? Thanks! Stay safe everyone!

      1. this is such a nice group of people – no weather snobs here. i have an interest but am no expert by any means.

  48. Snow Squall Warnings just to the west of CT in Hudson River Valley. Will see if they get extended to the east into SNE.

  51. Clouds are moving into my area now. Just like a thunderstorms in the summer I am going to sit back and watch what happens.

    2. So sorry to hear about the pneumonia diagnosis – but with lots of rest and time I know she’ll be ok. Be very wary of any flaxin antibiotics though – cipro etc. If you want to know why lmk or google them.

      Have your wife and Ssk wife in my thoughts.

  53. JJ – I was just about to comment that the sky is a clear and brilliant blue but looked off to my southwest and can see your clouds heading this way.

  54. Vicki it was sunshine until about ten minutes ago and was a nice winter scene with the snow from last night. I in wait and see mode.

  59. These snow squalls have the ability to produce near blizzard conditions for a short amount of time.

  60. How fast are these going to be moving? Fast. Arrival time in southern Nova Scotia around midnight (our time).

  61. JJ – I am on the way to Wallingford now. A co-worker of mine is driving. We should be there by 415 so we will be ok. Drive back later could be interesting with high winds and blowing snow

  62. I have to pick my son up from work about 6:30PM about 1.5 mile from where I live. My plan is to drive to a nearby shopping area that has an elevated parking platform in which I can look out with a clear view to the west. I will arrive before the squalls do, and try to video their arrival and part of the progress. It will be a short drive from there to get my son. If the timing is a little later (closer to 7), I will get him and he can accompany me to the perch. That area is also wide open to the wind so whatever happens should be pretty much unimpeded where I’ll be.

  66. Just arriving in Wallingford. Already starting to snow here. This looks like an area of convergence ahead of the main squall line.

  68. TK, would these snow squalls fall into a WINDEX weather event category or is
    there other factors involved here such that this is not quite a WINDEX event?

    Seems to me it is a WINDEX event, but what do I know?

    1. The term is often applied to events when lake plumes make it here, but since WINDEX stands for Winter Instability Index it can be applied to this event.

      1. This isn’t really about the amount of snow, it’s about the conditions during passage more than anything.

        1. When I mentioned the squall line being solid vs non solid this morning, youngest remarked it was not only the line but the winds even if the line was broken.

        2. Exactly and if the amount of snow is down, then the intensity might be down as shown on the radar simulation.
          But then a simulation Ain’t real life either. We shall see.

      1. Got it – SE of Waterbury (daughter did some horse showing there) and NW of Old Say Brook – loved staying there.

        Thank you, Mark. Be safe on your ride home

  76. Radar watchers, don’t fall into the “it’s weakening” trap when it’s between Albany & Boston. Both beams will shoot over the top of relatively shallow convection.

    1. I understand that completely. I was looking at the HRRR composite reflectivity, which is only a simulation based on its algorithm.

      Still, I noticed it. Not sure if it will end up meaning anything.

  80. I echo TK: the accumulations with the squalls are irrelevant, and will be minor (1″ or less) anyways. It’s the rapid deterioration of conditions and brief but extreme intensity of the snowfall that is so dangerous.

    1. They don’t issue them that far in advance. Think more like severe thunderstorm warnings.

  86. Off the current topic, but liking the looks of long range guidance for Feb 8th and after. Winter is far from over. Things will get exciting.

  90. Looking at the way this mesolow is spinning up, it actually wouldn’t shock me if some areas in eastern MA do see 1-2” from this. More like a mini-snowstorm now than a traditional squall.

    1. Yes. And exactly why I included 2″ as the upper limit for today’s event in yesterday’s comments discussion. I actually thought that low would have formed a bit sooner and already have transitioned everything into a more solid line but the process will be ongoing as it passes by. Mini snowstorm is a good way to describe it.

  96. Heaviest squall I’ve seen in years!! Wow. No thunder snow though. Has kind of hoping for some.

      1. Maybe a half inch or so. wind was the story. Quite a difference this morning though going from north to south and then east. Went from Holden to Oxford to Boston..big difference.

        1. Was briefly windy here. But just 12.

          We didn’t have more than a dusting. But snowing hard here now so maybe I was impatient….surprise, surprise

  109. good burst of snow and wind here in Billerica. Probably the heaviest snow I have seen all winter so far lol.

  110. Pounding snow here in Andover! Temp went down 4 degrees in last 5 minutes according to the trusty Accurite. To me this is the most fascinating weather event in winter in New England. A good snow squall!

  113. Dropped another 2 degrees in last 5 minutes. Maybe 1\2 inch up here. Hard to tell with the wind. Looks to stop in about 10 minutes or so.

    1. I just spoke with Tk he said it’s coning . Said his location is getting hammered . Hang on SS folks

  118. It was fun to watch while it lasted, which wasn’t very long. The last snow event of the season for SNE?? Such as it was. 🙁

  119. It snowed for 1 hour here, of course not all at the extreme intensity.
    That last batch that moved through was truly awesome, but quite short lived.

    Was just out and took multiple measurements and cleaned off all of the walks.

    We received a whopping 0.8 inch with the squalls and another 0.1 inch this morning
    for a daily total of 0.9 inch. Wow! A huge snow day. 😀 😀 😀

    But I must say, this lived up to the hype for sure!!

    1. It has been fun. My oldest and her family just took a ride and drove by here. I stood out for a while to chat. It is an awesome night

    1. Not impressed . We got it suger Coated roads & cars but the non stop hype didn’t live up in my town in my opinion. I think it’s basically what I though hit & miss .

  125. I felt like I was a snow tourist from Brazil. Someone who had never seen snow before and marveled at the sight. It was enjoyable.

    Logan is now closing in on 2.5 inches for the season. Are 7 inches of snow really going to accumulate in Boston between now and April 15th? Perhaps. I’m certainly not counting on it. It’s weird and interesting to see that the record maximum snow total for Boston (2014-2015) may be sandwiched between two record minimum totals: 2011-2012 and possibly 2018-2019.

    1. And yes, I’m certainly aware that the weather pattern in 2011-2012 was not at all similar to the one we’re experiencing now. That’s what makes it so interesting. 2011-2012 was pretty much a 4 month torch. 2018-2019 has been a bizarre mix of mostly cutters, short-lived Arctic blasts, and short-lived warm-ups.

  129. A fun weather watching night. Despite my natural impatience, it was as I’d anticipated. I’m hoping that people were able to stay off roads in the worst areas.

    Now we watch the temps fall. We are down to 11

  130. I can’t look away and not have temp drop. I txtd daughter it was 9 and then it was 8. Wind still whipping

  131. This last one coming through the city now isn’t bad in it’s own right. Fairly intense
    snow squall.

    3. That is a weird radar shot.

      Here, the last squall was perhaps the most intense. Certainly made for nice viewing.

      Boston will be in the single digits during this cold blast. But, on the duck boat parade day – Tuesday – it’ll feel very much like spring with temps near 60F. In fact, the mercury will likely not go below 32F from Sunday morning until early Friday morning (and even then it’ll be upper 20s). The ice that I really enjoy seeing on the Charles and the Esplanade Lagoon will vanish fairly quickly next week, especially with rain and a prolonged period of mild temperatures.

  137. SSK it was NOT hit and miss. I mentioned earlier someone would get a moderate snow shower and think they got skunked. Most places got hammered.

  138. That was top five maybe top three for snow squalls in my lifetime. Acquired some cool photos and video. 🙂

    2. I did enjoy watching tonight. Grandkids did as Well and they got to be part of the first squall warning.

      Most amazing for me was in your area in early 2000s. We had a client with a corporate office near Burlington mall. Took me multiple hours to go from 128 rt 2 exit to Lexington exit where I got off to use rest room at Denny’s. A matter of maybe 2 miles.

  141. Just drove through another whiteout on I 91 in Meriden on the way home. Road is completely covered. Bonus snow from what looks like a narrow snow plume.

  142. Another crazy snow plume aligned across the NYC metro area right now and training over the same areas. Pounding snow over the Bronx and upper Manhattan but doing nothing in Central Park.

    The band we just drove through has pretty much fizzled already,

      1. Oh crap! Didn’t realize that was the same thing you were talking about. I couldn’t view the link on my phone. That’s nuts.

    1. 2.

      I’ll head to sleep soon so will stop and you can all rest easy. Right now watching the temp is sadly amusing me

  144. 6 here.

    last sqaull dropped another 2 tenths. So 1.0 inch from squalls and 0.1 from tail end
    of departing storm this Am for a day total of 1.1 inch, 3rd snowiest day of the season
    and one of those was 11/15!

  147. -5 here.

    -40 this morning international falls. (I hope someone isn’t tone deaf and avoids a global warming write-up this morning out there)

  149. Currently -5 here. I was just looking at some pws from wunderground out in Minnesota, lots of -40 plus readings, absolutely incredible. Peoples furnaces must be running non stop.

  152. The snow squall we got last night lasted about 15 mins. or so. It got impressive for a few minutes – wind, no visibility. But the rest of the time it was just moderate snow. We got about 1/2 inch of snow from it.

  155. Does anyone know Logan’s snow total for yesterday?
    NOAA has not updated their climate section for Boston as it is current only
    through 1/29.

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