Thursday Forecast

100 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
We made it through the squalls, now to the arctic air, which blew in hard and harsh with the squalls last evening. Today won’t be quite as brutal as January 21, but almost as much adding the wind into the equation. But as previously discussed this doesn’t last long and even though we only recover to the 20s tomorrow, that will be part of a moderating trend that will last right through the 5-day period as high pressure sinks to the south of New England and a couple waves of low pressure move along a boundary to the north of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below -10 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Small disturbance brings a threat of early rain showers February 5 then drier and quite mild with high temps above 50 possible many areas. Next storm travels through the Great Lakes & St. Lawrence Valley February 6 bringing a risk of rain here but not looking too heavy. Drier, slightly colder after that but may need to watch for another low pressure wave with a variety of precipitation on February 8.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Uncertainty here but leaning toward a chilly/dry start to the period, milder and unsettled mid period, colder and drier finish.

100 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    2. It was driven by a long term solar minimum. The sun is the single greatest driver of both weather and climate.

  6. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Squall summary

    Here is a video from last night (quality sucks as I needed to do some conversions and editing to get it to load on IMGUR)

    https://imgur.com/a/ans7exO

    Snow lasted from 6:30 PM to 7:30 PM and then the final round came through around
    8:30ish or so and last 10 minutes or so.

    Squall totals here in JP 1.o inch, plus there was 0.1 inch from the departing
    system in the AM for a day total of 1.1 inch, 3d snowiest day of the season. Big Woof.

    I want to update my spreadsheet, so does anyone have Logan’s total for yesterday?
    We are to a whopping 11.3 inches on the season here in JP. I have added a chart
    to my spreadsheet so as soon as I get Logan’s totals, I’ll post here.

    I checked the NOAA climate data, but it has not yet been updated for yesterday.

    Many thanks

    2. Upload video to streamable.com – imgur is not good for video or high wuality long gifs. I want to see it in all its glory. lol

  7. Got to 2F here in Back Bay; 40s on Sunday; 60 possible on Tuesday. Maybe some snow drops and other early spring flowers will start peeking through the ground next week. All next week will be mild, and because of today and tomorrow’s cold it will feel very much like spring. I also think the models are underestimating the warmth coming next week, particularly in southern New England where there is no snow cover. The wind will be a southerly and a southwesterly and by next week places in the south that saw 30s will be closing in on 70.

      1. Liked your videos, by the way. It was exciting to see the snow fall last night. The temperature drop was impressive, too. At least we got that enjoyment out of this winter. It may be our most memorable moment from 2018-2019.

        1. Pretty sad. At this point, whatever weather comes our way, I am ready for it. Actually looking forward to Spring.
          This has been a pretty brutal Winter both weatherwise and healthwise. BRING ON SPRING!

      1. I agree with the temps, but not the precip. You can also have cold and wet with low snow when it warms up briefly for the storms. That’s more likely to happen than having them coincide in the pattern we are in and will be in overall.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Got down to -7.5F in Coventry CT this AM. Still sitting at -4F at 9AM. Guess we can’t complain after looking at those -40 readings in the Midwest this AM!

    2. We were -7.1 when the kids headed to school. Not sure a delay would have helped as it is still bitterly cold with the wind.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Some locations in the upper Midwest setting *all time* record low temperatures this morning, including some very long running stations. Rockland, IL the most prominent. This is a historic cold air outbreak.

    Snow squalls yesterday were very impressive. One of the most intense and widespread squall outbreaks over the Northeast US in decades. And, importantly, probably the most well-forecast snow squalls ever. The hi-res guidance (all of it) did a great job, but even before most of those models were in range meteorologists were already discussing the potential.

  13. I am interested in what happened to the line in southeast Mass last night.

    I do wonder if the cells that developed over Long Island Sound and traversed NE over Cape Cod around 7pm last night somehow stabilized SE mass somewhat.

    Perhaps also the small scale low condensed the snow squalls to central and north Mass.

    This is not to say we didn’t have a squall in southeast sections. We did, however, the squall line was less intense and extremely thin during passage.

      1. This makes sense, I would say the Hingham area west to the Braintree split saw a wider, more intense band of squalls.

        To the south of that west to east line, it was a less intense, thinner line.

        Most of the snow had (sublimated??) in Marshfield overnight upon the arrival of the frigid, drier air.

        1. It was wild in Hingham and Norwell and somewhat in Hanover. (I was driving through these three cities during the squall.)

      2. Typical snow squall for Hanover, 5 to 7 minutes and then it was gone.

        The most intense squall I saw was in Braintree the winter 2009/2010. I remember looking down the street at night, street lights lined the street, then a bomb of white started swallowing up each light pole, one by one until it hit the house. I literally could not see a fence that was 10 feet in front of me. I remember my dog at the time was standing in the front door way but did not want to go out. He’s front half of his body was covered in snow but the back half was clear. Very impressive.

    1. And you wondered at the beginning of the year why my snow guesses for Logan and JP were so far apart 🙂

      If there was a contest for amount of disparity between the two locations I might actually win. For my actual totals to verify I would need an act of God at this point!

      1. Your span was even higher than mine. I wonder if you had the highest. And they may verify. If not, I’d be right and I’m never close.

  16. Check out these hourly observations for the past three days at International Falls, MN. This is pretty incredible….

    https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KINL.html

    They reached a low of -45 this AM and were -40 or lower for 5 consecutive hours. Their high temperature yesterday was -19 and they reached a wind chill of -55.
    They have not warmed above -13 since 10PM Monday night.

    That’s about as brutal as it gets, even for them.

    1. Can’t even imagine. I remember double numbers below when skiing to the point the mountain was closed a couple of times. They were nothing like that.

  17. Total QPF in SNE over the next 10 days will likely be only 0.5-1″. A dry pattern! And it will likely linger deeper into February as well. Persistently dry, but not persistently cold. In fact, I think this will be a warm month overall. AO will head back to positive territory and the MJO looks to remain either weak or, if it gains amplitude, unfavorable for sustained cold. NAO also strongly positive with a -PNA. Good recipe for warmth.

  19. SE Mass …
    Think “dry air entrainment”. The meso low that gave intensity to east central areas took it away from southeastern areas.

  20. Looking ahead February may turn out to be well above normal temperature-wise, with relatively few cold days. The retreating polar vortex is galloping far north and east, and the northern jet stream will be quite far from us, too. I don’t think snow in SNE is in the cards in the next couple of weeks. Even NNE will not see nearly as much as it has in December and January. Of course snow can happen in SNE, but conditions are clearly not favorable. I’m confused why mets were saying a few days ago that SNE would see snow soon. The models did not indicate that. They were all over the place regarding events like the 7th of February, and so it should have been “let’s wait and see whether SNE gets any snow in February.” We’ll see about March, but we’re running out of time.

    Today is a beauty, however. I treasure days like today. Bright sunshine. Fresh air. If I could just pluck a chunk of this air and save it to provide some relief when HHH comes. Well, there’s always the freezer to stick my head in.

  21. It was cold this morning, not the coldest we have seen but cold. I been having interviews for jobs and graduate schools, I got a response from smultea sciences and got a job opportunity as a protected species observer and if I take it will be going down to Houston for training in May. The helicopter training scares the hell out of me though lol. Other jobs I am waiting for is an ecologist position on Nantucket and a marine research specialist down in virginia’s long term ecological research reserve. Also waiting for a few grad schools its a busy time lol.

    1. Very nice, Matt. I know you will find what you are looking for and that institution will be thrilled to have you join it.

    2. Good luck, Matt. Nantucket would be nice. You’d be close to the benchmark! Have you inquired about York University in England? As I mentioned previously it’s a beautiful university town.

      2. I have loved the Cape since I was a very little kid been there every summer for at least a day trip if not for a week or two. I feel in love with Nantucket my first time on the island doing a course in marine and ecological research at the field station. I then did my honors research project back in 2017 for 3 months and loved every minute of it.

    3. Best wishes Matt !

      Any of those places will be lucky to have your knowledge and enthusiasm for the field !!

    6. Congrats Matt! It’s great to have options and no matter which direction you choose it sounds like there’s a lot of good things ahead!

  22. cold air is dense and heavy.

    Yes, it looks like mild times ahead, however ……

    Especially, in the heart of the cold season, when Canada has lots of snow cover and cold, the long range model scenarios won’t pick up the back door cold fronts or that small bubble of high pressure that forms over Hudson Bay and slides southeastward to chill New England off.

    I doubt the northeast will come to be as mild as a model’s long term projection indicates it might be.

  23. Wow, as cold as it is, my car, parked in the sun was fairly mild. Seeing the effects of the 6 degree solar angle increase since the solstice.

  24. I agree with Tom on the February outlook and I truly question anything the models are saying beyond 7 days out, including their teleconnection forecasts. It will appear for a few days that we are heading into a more favorable pattern for cold and snow, then it looks warm, then it reverts a few days later.

    Looking at the NCEP ensembles, for example, the AO and PNA forecasts amongst the individual members vary widely from positive to negative over the next week plus. The Euro MJO forecast still eventually brings it towards Phase 8 and 1 while the GFS remains in Phases 6 and 7. Not much agreement there.

    Anything beyond 7-10 days out right now I would say is a pretty low confidence forecast.

  27. the warm spell is not going to be nearly as warm as models are showing nor is it going to be that long especially here in New England.

    1. I really like having more light, especially in the late afternoon and evening.

      Today was a gorgeous day, actually. So bright and sunny. I really love this kind of weather.

      1. I also enjoyed today. I love the early dark nights starting in fall and equally love the later sunsets in spring.

  29. Mark, Matt, and Tom, you’re right about the uncertainty regarding the long-range. But, I actually think that in the short-term – tomorrow through Tuesday – the models are underestimating how quickly we rebound in temperature. I think tomorrow Boston could reach 30, Saturday 38, Sunday 46, and Tuesday 60 is not out of the question. There’s a large snow cover to our north, yes. But certainly by Sunday with a west-southwesterly and then a southerly the snow cover won’t keep us cool. Moreover, there is little or no snow cover to speak of in coastal SNE and the sun is getting `stronger.’

  30. For all the complaining I’ve done about this winter it’s been one of the most interesting winters I’ve experienced. Exhibit A is the truly incredible difference between snow totals in NNE and SNE (so far, records on both ends of the spectrum). Exhibit B is the fact that in spite of not having much snow at all it’s not been a mild winter thus far. In fact, we’ve had several potent blasts of cold air and a few fairly lengthy stretches of seasonably cold weather. There have been mild days and weeks, and on average we’re perhaps slightly above normal. But on the whole the temperatures would lead one to believe that we would have had more snow. Exhibit C is the coldest Thanksgiving weekend I’ve ever experienced anywhere.

  31. So far at BDL where the records are kept for inland CT we had the coldest Thanksgiving Day on record and MLK Day it was the 9th coldest day on record and the coldest day since 1981.

    1. Sadly, I concur. It’ll snow in places where it `wants to snow’ (far north and west of the city of Boston). Alas, in coastal SNE I’m afraid it’s “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose,” ie, mostly a cold rain. You’ll notice on the models that next week the core area of cold air from Canada is a. not nearly as cold as the lobe this week; b. its highest impact will be the Upper Midwest, with Northern New England getting a glancing blow. If the cold air and also the high pressure area to our north could shift a bit eastward (well, 300-500 miles) it would be a very different story in SNE.

  33. Winter is not over, my goodness. After next week feb looks cold and above average precip. And then we have a march. Not sure why spring talk is happening already. Maybe a few warm days next week.

      1. Of course they are, more to the fact you always point out it’s still the season based on the calendar.

  34. 1979-1980 has been my strongest analog winter since formulating my early thoughts on this winter back in the autumn. It remains the strongest analog. I don’t see anything as far out as I can look with any confidence that shows me a snowy pattern is shaping up.

    1. Tk I asked a question twice to JMA without a response . You had mentioned very recently that you said next winter could be the same as this current winter. I saw JMA made a similar comment and I’m really curious as to what you both may see a year away that you would suggest that. This question is just out of curiosity and nothing more . Thank you

      1. He probably didn’t see it as he only pops in occasionally. There is some ability to look ahead and predict some of the large scale indices that not only include the atmosphere but the ocean. It’s risky, of course, but applying that science shows me that it would not surprise me to see that. Also even though history is not the best predictor, we have seen many times that a winter like this is often followed by one somewhat similar, even if for different reasons. That is a looser correlation than the first one I mentioned.

          1. And of course I or anybody here won’t hold you to this but could Boston come in with under 20 inches of snow .

            1. It wouldn’t surprise me, but it’s hard to be confident on that with so many weeks of opportunity left.

  35. Old England, mind you, the southern and western part where it rarely snows, is … you guessed it … getting snow. Many parts will see more snow from a storm that’s traversing the channel than Boston’s gotten all winter. It seems that pretty much everyone has more snow than Boston; from Raleigh-Durham to Washington DC to Cornwall to Dublin to Paris to London. I don’t think Seattle has gotten any snow this winter, but that’s bound to happen. It’s been a weird one.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47071846

    Of course what might happen is that Boston gets blitzed by a succession of snowstorms from mid February to mid March. Who knows? The winter of 1955-1956 saw little or no snow in Boston until March. Then, bang we got hit by 3 nor’easters that wound up postponing the St. Patrick’s Day parade several times.

  37. TK. your photo above is the best parking lot photo I’ve ever seen!

    That was a wild squall while it lasted, felt like we were driving in Siberia. Vicki’s video captured the swirling, multi-directional nature of those wind blasts. Quite thankful it was so short-lived.

      1. I made use of the LED lighting in that parking lot. It worked out better than I expected. Thanks! 🙂

Comments are closed.