Friday Forecast

77 Comments

6:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
We’ve gotten through the cold outbreak, which was a brief glancing blow by the edge of a piece of the Polar Vortex, which hit the Midwest much harder with extreme cold. While today will still be cold, it will be easier to take than yesterday with several degrees added to yesterday’s readings and somewhat less wind. A milder westerly air flow comes in Saturday but there will be some cloudiness to go along with it. High pressure will be in general control but a surface boundary will also be around late in the weekend pushing more to the north early in the week. A cold front comes through at some point during Tuesday, but it looks like this system may be moisture started, and we’ll have a better chance of rain showers from a trough that comes before it earlier in the day. It’s obviously several days away so the details may change.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures rise from the 30s to the 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Breezy. Temperatures rise from the 40s to the 50s morning then fall back to the 40s afternoon.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Slightly colder air arrives February 6 with dry weather. Next storm threat is February 7-8. Odds favor rain but some ice/snow is possible if the storm track is far enough south. Dry, colder weather expected during the weekend of February 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Pattern should support a Great Lakes storm track about mid period with rain favored over freezing or frozen precipitation. This should be book-ended by dry weather to start and end to this period.

77 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6.5 was the magic number this morning in JP. Cold for sure, but no big deal (at least not for me). šŸ˜€

    1. My only worry would be if it’s a stomach bug that spreads around the clubhouse. It could be a stomach bug or perhaps just a cold. I think the Patriots are being prudent to have him stay in the hotel and avoid contact with players.

      1. Or this damn flu bug that often turns into sinus infections,
        Bronchitis or worse, pneumonia as in my wife’s case.
        Any team member who comes down with this will not
        be able to play and if they do play, they will NOT be able
        to perform at a peak level for sure.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Skiers will be happy once again this weekend as more snow will be falling in the Greens especially on Saturday. I wonder what Jay’s Peak has gotten thus far. It must be a tremendous amount of snow. It also looks like next week’s larger storm will be a major snow producer in NNE – especially the mountains – while it’s more of a rain producer at the coast in SNE or a mix in the interior.

    Our biggest problem this winter has been the storm track, obviously. Once in a while we’ve had a favorable track and not had enough cold to tap into. But usually the cold’s been there but the track won’t oblige. That stubborn pattern looks to continue like a broken record.

    1. 266ā€ on the year at Jay Peak so far and a long way to go in the season. 27ā€ alone in the last 7 days. That mountain is a snow magnet and has more powder/packed powder days than anywhere else in East thanks to its exposed location downwind of Lake Champlain which only enhances the upslope snows. Being much farther north helps as well. Itā€™s the closest thing to western skiing you can get in the East in my opinion. We are heading up there for a weekend in early March. Canā€™t wait!

  9. That period of Feb 7-14 is looking interesting again on the 6z GFS. Boundary sets up near us with several waves of low pressure passes over or to the south of us. This would set up a few snow/mix chances.

    1. FV3-GFS for the same period looks even better, but we know what a piece
      of doggie do that model is. šŸ˜€

    1. Some issues yesterday, but basically so far so good.
      Not feeling any better whatsoever and of course word of that
      12 year old from Milford dying from pneumonia scared her to death.
      It’s not good for someone 70 years old to have pneumonia.
      On a good note, since the medication, she has been able to get much more
      rest at night. Hopeful that is a positive sign. We’ll see how today goes.

        1. No, he had the flu which turned into pneumonia.
          The child actually died from complications of the flu
          Ie pneumonia. the news report of ch 4 from Dr. mallika marshall said specifically pneumonia.

      4. Best of luck sheā€™s bound to feel better soon . Rest , meds & fluids . Gatorade good for keeping hydrated & electrolyte as well as water .

  13. If Hightower doesnā€™t play, at least it wonā€™t be a ā€œMalcom Butlerā€ moment like last year. We will know exactly why he is not on the field. Interesting that itā€™s been just over a hundred years since the big flu epidemic and that disease is still plaguing us today in the 21st century.

    This may also be a reason to get rid of the two week layoff. Too many ā€œbadā€ things can happen in that extended timeframe. Last Sunday Hightower definitely would have been healthy and maybe last year Butler would have played, who knows?

      1. Iā€™m somewhat surprised. Many years ago my grandfather caught pneumonia and he was in the hospital and there was no debate. Glad to know though that she can recover at home. Best of luck JPD! šŸ™‚

      2. I feel the same about home. I am at appointment so using small screen and apologize if you said. Are you still home with her

    1. Absolutely, but we also donā€™t want him infecting other teammates either. I hope heā€™s in isolation somewhere for now.

  16. Thanks TK.

    We’re getting one of my favorite types of weather here in south-central NJ today: low temperature snowfall. Only about 15F outside with very tiny snowflakes coming down. A light coating on the ground where I am, but I’m right near the northern edge of the snow. It’s steadier across Delaware and down into DC.

    1. I like those snowfalls as well. It moves around easily and doesnā€™t turn as icy after brief melting…nice & fluffy.

    2. That is the system I thought about 6 days ago might give SNE some snow today, but as you see, when it’s not Great Lakes it’s usually suppression.

  17. The biggest takeaway from the current and expected MJO is the same as it’s been for a few months. Don’t trust ANY model beyond 3 days.

  18. JPDave, I hope your wife responds well to the antibiotic. Pneumonia is a serious illness, as you know. One important thing is for your wife to keep moving around, if possible, only just walking around your house. Being in a supine position for long periods of time is not good.

  19. As the polar vortex pulls away, Southeast ridging looks poised to dominate the pattern through mid-February. It wonā€™t be the only player, but itā€™s the biggest one. Atypical of February during an El Nino year, which I think has to be chalked up to this El Nino being very weak and maybe closer to just a warm neutral.

  21. TK, I thought that 1979-1980 featured long, mild stretches, also in NNE and the Adirondacks. I remember this because during the Olympic games in Lake Placid (February 1980) they had to use snow makers for the first time in Olympic history, which turned out to be difficult given the mild temperatures. Certainly NNE and the Adirondacks have had a lot of snow and cold this year, unlike 1979-1980.

  22. 12z EPS does not imply we are heading into an extended stretch of mild weather anytime soon. In fact it looks quite cold days 8-10 and beyond.

  23. 12z Euro operation verbatim looks like a heck of an ice/sleet storm across the interior late next week. Hopefully that does not verify!

  24. Regarding the pattern as we head into mid February…

    John Homenukā€ @jhomenuk Ā· 24h24 hours ago

    Longer range GEFS and EPS suggestive of a colder pattern returning in the Central & Eastern United States after 2/10, which lines up well w/ hemispheric pattern progression. We can visualize this using the top 105 GEFS analogs via CIPS. Again, cancel Winter at your own risk..

    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1091080564663349248

    1. No cancelling of winter here. šŸ™‚ But one must also keep in mind these are still models that cannot be trusted beyond day 3, even the ensembles. They have already proven to be not really any more reliable than any given operational run.

      1. Indeed, my trust in them right now is very low. Though you would think eventually they might start to latch onto something? I am more intrigued with his comment about them “lining up well with hemispheric pattern progression” Not sure what he is getting at.

        1. Just the large scale movement really. But even with that he’s still analyzing suspect models as part of the statement. This is where experience really comes into play.

    1. If I am not mistaking this is one of the few winter seasons that they actually been experiencing a snowy winter in parts of the plain/ ohio river valley. My friend that lives in Ohio said this is the snowiest season in like 6 years.

  26. Recall a couple weeks ago when I commented on the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS unanimously agreeing on a cold and snowy period the last week of January into early February. And that they would either nail it or go down in flames together.

    So what do we think? If you ask me, theyā€™ve gone down in flames. The snowfall forecast was obviously a complete bust. But that shouldnā€™t come as a surprise; itā€™s very common for long range precip forecasts to bust in either direction no matter how good the agreement is. And for temperatures? Not great here either. The period from 1/23-1/31 was generally quite mild, punctuated by a historic/extreme but brief cold blast spilling over into the first couple days of February. Not long lasting sustained cold, as the coming warm-up will show. You can certainly give them credit for picking up on the potential for a cold blast at very long range. But they missed badly on duration. And again, missed on precip/snow. So one redmeeming quality for what on its surface looked like a unanimous high confidence forecast. Not worth celebrating or inspiring of confidence for the future IMO.

    1. I could not agree more. The best I could tell at the time was if were were going to get something, there was a “window of opportunity” in that time frame. But just having opportunity is no guarantee.

    2. Agree. But I will say with respect to snowfall, Upstate NY and CNE/NNE have gotten crushed with snow the past few weeks, to the tune of several feet in many places. And short of a few brief 1 to 2 day long spikes of milder weather, it has remained cold in those areas. We are talking a displacement of storm track by 100 miles or so (which isn’t that great when we are talking long range guidance) and it could have been a much different story for NJ/NY/SNE. So as TK said, there were opportunities there and they hit in some areas/didn’t miss by much in others. So I wouldn’t call the model forecasts a complete bust. Some of them had a general idea.

      I do remain confident that if we keep getting some windows of opportunity, eventually our luck is going to change. The historical odds are in our favor!

  27. Snow stats this season for Hartford/BDL Airport:

    20.6″ of snow on the year
    21.7″ is average to date
    -1.1″ departure

    Running pretty much normal on the year.

      1. Thanks for sharing the links.

        I did know about this, and read details earlier this week in the local Havana newspaper. Tornadoes are indeed very rare in Cuba.

  29. For January 0.1 above normal snowfall for BDL and temperature 0.2 below normal at BDL. Despite all the ups and downs pretty normal January.

  30. Interior Connecticut has fared well compared to coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. As Mark pointed out a shift in the storm track by 100 miles or so would have made a big difference for all of SNE. And, as we shift our attention to the next couple of weeks, shifts in storm track and lobes of cold air by 100-200 miles could make a big difference. I’m just not `feeling’ it, however. Something tells me the snow gods `want’ it to snow everywhere but coastal SNE this year.

    I did enjoy today. Another 10 in my book as far as a winter’s day. The cold lingered longer than I expected, too. I’ll savor it.

  31. Brief sports rant, I heard Rob Parker be interviewed on the radio this afternoon. He is an ignorant person. I don’t understand why anyone would listen to him or find him entertaining. He doesn’t even know sports facts. He said: “Tom Brady is the reason the Patriots lost last year’s Superbowl. He had the lead and the ball, and then fumbled it away.” Parker is wrong on all counts. But, what bothered me most is that he doesn’t have his facts straight. When Brady was strip-sacked the Eagles had the lead. Earlier in the quarter the Patriots did take a 1 point lead. But, the Eagles scored on their next drive (they also converted a 4th down during that drive). Only then did the Patriots get the ball back (and Brady got strip-sacked).

    Later I heard a criticism of the Patriots that they’re somehow not diverse enough. Again, this stuff makes my blood boil. It’s factually totally inaccurate. While the Patriots may have a seemingly disproportionate number of white stars, they have and have had plenty of black stars over the years, as well as players of Hawaiian, Jamaican, Chinese, and Haitian descent, among others; Romanian German, Nigerian, and Samoan nationals, among others. The Patriots coaching staff has had several blacks in high-ranking positions over the years. Ownership is Jewish, not to mention their star slot receiver.

    It’s perfectly fine not to like the Patriots. But, when people spout blatant falsehoods I really get pissed off.

  32. 18z GFS has this for next Friday…..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020118&fh=156

    Verbatim an extended period of snow changing to mix/ice changing to rain and possibly back to snow/ice to end. As I mentioned above, the 12z Euro has an icy look for this storm as well. Lots of cold air and high pressure just to our north to work with. I think this one may have a hard time cutting. Another snow bonanza for norther New England and a kitchen sink storm for us?

    Then we have this on 2/12:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019020118&fh=264

    Take if for what it’s worth, which may not be much!

  33. Tornadoes are rare in Cuba as they are also fairly rare in Florida (though not as rare). Those areas get plenty of thunderstorms but lack the type of set-up that creates rotating storms. A fair amount of the tornadoes that do occur in Florida and Cuba tend to be in the colder season, when the atmospheric dynamics are more likely to set up just right to make it happen. Think about the superstorm in March 1993 when both Florida and Cuba were hammered by a line of severe storms with widespread damaging winds, in some cases over 100 MPH. I recall vividly while forecasting for Cuba’s sugarcane crop having to report how much of it was flattened by those winds. Supply was significantly impacted. That was just straight line wind too, but much more widespread than a tornado would be.

  35. Hightower was back at full practice today. I feel better now. Letā€™s hope no other players go down at the last moment. šŸ™‚

  36. Eric Fisher tweet:

    Going to be an interesting February. Feels like a battle between the SE Ridge trying to flex and cold air attempting to advance from the western/central U.S. Lots of Pacific energy in the mix. Clashes ensue. Should be fun.

  37. Punxutawney Phil says “early spring”. Wonder what WHW Philip thinks? šŸ˜‰

    BTW Miss G. in Lincoln makes her prediction at 10AM.

    Updating the blog now…

      2. It’ll be a close call at 10AM but the clouds may not thicken up enough to eliminate Miss G’s shadow.

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