Saturday Forecast

55 Comments

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Well, we got our annual prognostication from Punxutawney Phil this morning. I’m not sure if he favors the GFS or the Euro, but what he did say (in “Groundhogese”) was that he saw no shadow and therefore predicts an early spring. Our regional groundhog, Miss G., from Lincoln MA, will be making her prediction at 10AM, but so as not to be any further influenced by large rodents, the blog update shall be out before we find out what Miss G. has to say. What I have to say is this. We are in the midst of a moderation. It may not feel quite like it yet, as last night was still pretty cold, with some areas falling to near or even below zero. But today, you’ll notice lots of high cloudiness and that’s a sign of warming aloft, which usually means warming at the surface in most cases. This will be one of them. Today’s surface temperature recovery only brings us back to the vicinity of the freezing point, but it’s relatively warm compared to where we sat just 2 days ago. However today will also contain a fair amount of moving air, i.e., it will be breezy, so that will still keep it feeling chilly. Sunday will see less wind, brighter sun, and will moderate further, opening the door to a couple days that will make you think Phil is really onto something early next week, when many areas see temperature easily breaking 50. However, we all know that a couple mild days in early February, no matter how winter has been up to this point, is not a sign to declare an end to winter. Trust me, we’re not done with cold. And that reminder will come quickly. After one cold front passes early Tuesday with rain showers, we’ll get a treat with the milder air hanging around as it will be a second cold front that will deliver colder air for Wednesday, though nothing close to the magnitude of what we just saw.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The large scale pattern will feature a flat ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US. With plenty of cold still residing in Canada, this sets up a contrast zone across the US Northeast and Mid Atlantic, which often become vulnerable to air mass battles. This doesn’t automatically mean big storms, big snow, or anything very specific. It does mean we tend to see a stretch of unsettled weather in the region, and this will likely be the case, first in the Northeast February 7-8 with odds favoring a low pressure track through the Great Lakes, mild air aloft, some low level cold, and a combination of rain/ice in the region – the details of which won’t be known for a few days. During the February 9-11 period the “zone of conflict” is more likely to shift into the Mid Atlantic leaving our area drier and seasonably chilly.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
It’s obviously been hard to confidently predict weather in this section of the blog for some time now, and this will be no different. However, the same basic weather pattern should be in place and the early feeling is that we get back into unsettled weather early in the period before shifting back to dry and colder mid to late period.

55 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. According to Barry:

    1. More bitter cold to be watched during the next two weeks.
    2. Pattern has been favorable for snows but just hasn’t materialized.

    I don’t understand #2. I have been under the impression that the pattern has NOT been favorable for snows around here so far.

    1. 1) I agree.
      2) I disagree. The pattern has not been favorable for snow in SNE, while it has been in NNE (and parts of western and central New England as we have seen from some locations having fairly normal #’s for this time of year).

    1. The calendar may be steadfast in what it says, but rodents aside, the weather changes irregularly and will seldom ever follow the calendar to the letter. 🙂

  9. Not sure I agree with Barry on both points. Cold air will return, but I don’t think that it’ll be bitter or even unseasonably cold, especially if the ridging takes place. If SNE is in the battle zone unseasonably cold air will not be a factor. Also, neither the previous pattern or the one that appears to be taking shape (with ridging and battle zone) is conducive to snows in SNE. What I do think will happen is that the NNE/SNE split will be reinforced if you will, amplified. Follow the temperatures in, say, Gorham, NH and Boston for the next 4 weeks and I believe you will see some rather incredible and sustained differences. This applies to precipitation type, too.

    I do believe some of the forecasters are grasping at straws if they see signs of snow in the mid- and long-range. It just isn’t there, at least not at the coast in SNE.

        1. I can hardly wait to see their faces when Logan comes in with a final total for 2018-19 of 2.3”. 😉

          I myself am already sick of that amount to date. 🙁

    2. I’m pretty sure we will have at least one or two more visits from a PV lobe. Always keeping in mind that as you get deeper and deeper into winter the sun angle is coming up and will have at least a slight negating effect.

      It’s going to be hard for Boston to get 42 inches of snow in the next 2 months. Can’t say it can’t happen, but I can pretty much say with moderate confidence they won’t be making up much ground in the next 10 days. That gets you to mid February and just 6 weeks from vernal equinox, not the “end” of snow opportunities as history shows, but at that point you’re rounding turn 4 and about to sprint down the stretch.

  11. BB tweet

    I Will Be Very Surprised If Boston’s Snowfall This Month Doesn’t Exceed Last February’s Total & The Average February Snowfall As Well. #WinterIsNotOver #wbz

      1. I will take the over. Something tells me we are going to a couple decent storms well early March and then warm weather pops in late March.

          1. If something was going to be happening down the road, TK would have hinted about it here on the blog by now.

  12. Keeping A CBS Eye On The Extreme Cold Reloading In Western Canada. In The Short Term, That Arctic Air Is Locked Up There But Eventually It Will Charge Into The U.S. & Feed Into A Potential Storm Track Cutting Across The Country & Setting Us Up For Some Wintry Episodes! #wbz

  13. Barry: Keeping A CBS Eye On The Extreme Cold Reloading In Western Canada. In The Short Term, That Arctic Air Is Locked Up There But Eventually It Will Charge Into The U.S. & Feed Into A Potential Storm Track Cutting Across The Country & Setting Us Up For Some Wintry Episodes! #wbz

  14. Ms. G saw her shadow but PP did not. Does that mean we split the difference and declare “3” more weeks of winter? 😉

    1. It means northern New England will get more snow and southern areas will get…some…but not tons. 😉

      Actually, it doesn’t mean a damn thing. But it is fun. 🙂

  15. Well, at least if tweets etc. keep coming out about a snowy pattern, and they say it enough, eventually they’ll be right. The question is, does eventually mean February 2019, the winter of 2019-2020, or December 2020? 😉

  16. February ideas fresh from the mind of TK…

    The first half of the month, my ideas are similar to what WxW talked about yesterday. The SE ridge will be a player. However the contrast that I mentioned in my discussion above is more the type that allows storms to travel through the Great Lakes, in which we tend to rain, but we can see icing if low level cold is involved. When we get a piece of polar jet trough coming down it tends to squash systems to the south and we are missed here in SNE. You’d need a weaker version of this during the passage of a disturbance to get something to come right over or just south of the region. Odds are maybe roughly 25% that something like that happens.

    The second half of the month I tend to side with the CMC weeklies and that theme is colder but drier. This pattern has tried to take hold a few times but has never had any staying power. That may or may not change as we go through the month. Continuing to watch the MJO as a major wildcard.

      1. Not always. Lately they have been starting to bring brief precipitation events. The next one will bring more traces than anything.

  17. CFS Weeklies continue the same general theme. Mild week 1, transitional week 2, cold weeks 3-6. Wettest during week 1, generally dry after.

    CFS Monthlies basically have March through September warmer and drier than average (except closer to normal temps June), followed by a wet and less warm October.

  18. Well, lots of activity on the 12z GFS right through mid February. After early this coming week, storm after storm tracking near or to the south of us. We’ll see if this idea has any staying power…

  21. While there are few certainties in life other than death and taxes, I feel confident in saying that it’ll feel raw at Fenway Park on Opening Day – with an easterly seabreeze – and that spring will feature its usual teasers and (mostly) reality checks until around Memorial Day or even later. Somehow we almost never escape that pattern in spring. April 2014 was a notable exception. What a beautiful warm month that was for the most part.

  23. I actually been going skiing more and hope that in the spring, its nice and I can enjoy biking a bunch no matter where I end up lol.

      1. Back in the day when Mark Rosenthal was on air, “the chances are slim and none, and slim just left town!” 😉

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