Sunday Forecast

144 Comments

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
There’s a little game tonight that many of you will be interested in, so what will the weather be like for any last minute errands you need to get done before it? The weather will be favorable, just a cloud/sun kind of day, not “warm” yet but certainly warmer than recently. However, you still need to watch for patchy ice on the ground where it had never melted, or had partially melted in re-froze, so keep that in mind so you’re able to watch the game from where you planned, without having to make a visit to the ER first. A frontal boundary sits in the area today, having dropped down from northern New England as a weak cold front last night and will head back north as a warm front today and tonight. This is responsible for some cloudiness but no precipitation. We’ll be in the warm sector Monday and Tuesday, even though a trough passes by in the early hours of Tuesday from the west when there is a rain shower risk, this doesn’t really have any cold air behind it. We’ll have to wait for a cold front to come through in the evening, allowing us to enjoy an early preview of spring. And keep in mind it’s just an early preview. It’ll still be early February and just 3 days beyond the climate mid point of the cold season. We will come back to reality when it is seasonably cold by midweek. We’ll also be watching the approach of a storm system from the west by the end of the period. The current feeling is that the main storm will be heading for the Great Lakes and we’ll be dealing with liquid falling from the sky. The problem may be that there will be cold air trapped at the surface, and this is a recipe for icing for at least some areas. Still a few days to refine the details.
Forecast specifics…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain showers before dawn. Lows 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Temperatures fall to the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain/ice possible by late-day. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The pattern described yesterday with cold air in Canada and a milder ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast will be in place. This will result in some air mass battling, and we’ll likely start and end this period unsettled with storms that favor rain/ice over snow. In between, dry and seasonably cold weather is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
The same basic pattern should remain in place with unsettled weather again to start and possibly end this period and an interlude of dry and chilly weather in between. Obviously low confidence on timing this far in advance.

144 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

        1. I don’t think the drugs are working. She felt worse than ever yesterday. Still fever last night.
          Not sure what we will/can do. Final dose today.
          Medication says many feel better in 5 days, some take another day or 2, so we shall see. I expected More from
          this medication.

          Hope this turn around today/overnight.

          There will be a call into docs tomorrow if not improvement.

          Hope this isn’t viral pneumonia….

          Thank you for asking.

          2. A couple friends on the “5 day feel better” thing didn’t feel better until day 6 or 7. And where she had already been so sick going into this, it will probably take some extra time. Get well!

  3. Thanks TK!

    Barry continues to focus on Canada cold. It’s building back and ready to enter the U.S. again. A lot good it’s done for SNE though. It never really brings anything close to meaningful snow. All so far mostly just flash freezes following prolific rain episodes and bone chilling temps for a couple days or so.

  5. As usual, it’s about 9 AM and the game is 9 hours away, and I am already a wreck!

    At Market Basket in Somerville yesterday no one could get down the aisles because people were stocking up for the game.

    I am wondering about Atlanta weather.

  6. 17 years ago we also had a boring pattern with little snow (15.1”) but I believe we saw more snow to date by this time. Or at least I would like to think we did.

    I do remember the duck boat parade was BONE CHILLING to say the least. Always hard for me to keep my hands warm. 🙂

    Total snowfall to date = 2.3” 🙁

  7. Thanks TK!

    Go Pats! Would love to see them finish a great season on top!

    I’d guess it’s over-cooked, but the 6z GFS has mid 60s for SNE on Friday. If we can get deep enough in the warm sector, maybe.

  9. JPD, how many days as your wife been on that new medication? I’m wondering if she should really be checked into a hospital for 24/7 professional care. Just a suggestion.

    1. We’ll see after today. There are too many issues to list regarding
      hospitals. Even a simple IV drip would make her worse. That shit has
      chemicals in it for which she is allergic.

  10. I just hope the Pats defense plays WAAY better than the last SB. Did Philly ever punt at all?? I want NO repeat of that horror show! On offense they had better start scoring much sooner. Let the Rams do the catching up.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    I echo JP Dave’s sentiments on the model projections. I see nothing even remotely conducive to snows in SNE, or good weather for that matter. Lots of grays again. A preview of March and April weather in SNE, actually.

    The cold that’s poised again to invade the U.S. is centered on … the middle, namely the Upper Midwest. Not a repeat of what we experienced, but similar. And again, the positioning of high pressure areas to our north, the lobe of cold that only gives us a glancing blow each time, the ridge of high pressure to our south and east, all of that does not spell snow or tranquil winter weather, either.

    JP Dave, I’m not a doctor, but your wife’s continued fever suggests the meds are not working. That is not that unusual, as bacteria (and I’m guessing this is a bacterial infection) have over time grown resistant to a number of anti-biotics, including the one you mentioned your wife is getting. Thankfully, there are other anti-biotics in the armamentarium. And, the human body is incredibly adept at fighting off illness, even without effective treatment. However, this can take a long time. I’m very sorry to hear about this prolonged bout of misery for your wife. Keep her upright when possible. Fluids – water, tea, Gatorade – until she can’t stand it anymore. If her cough is productive, have her get rid of the phlegm and gunk when she can (just spitting it out) as it otherwise just collects around the alveoli sacs/bronchial airways and causes further irritation and even respiratory distress.

    On the Pats, I think it’s going to be a very tough game to win. The Rams are very good, well-coached, etc … Somehow I do have a feeling the Patriots will edge the Rams in the end, and interceptions (multiple) will play an important role.

  15. Primary storm track until mid February: southern Rockies and Plains, lower to middle Mississippi Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes, southeastern Canada. A few of these will have cold air at low levels here in New England.

    Primary storm track mid to late February: Southwest to lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast & Mid Atlantic. This will be an overall colder and dry pattern for New England. It will feel milder when we push the polar jet north and keep the streams very separated. One or two PV lobe visits may still occur but I’m not clear on the AO just yet. It may start to go positive after having been negative for a while. This would just mean more “typical” cold with milder days interspersed. Meanwhile NAO which has been mostly positive trends toward neutral. No sign of strong flip to negative any time soon, using the limited reliability tools available to us. 😉

    1. That would be consistent with what Eric Fisher said below. Our next (final?) window of opportunity for snow threats begins mid February.

    2. I would be curious as to what the record for least snow in February. Has it ever been completely snowless?

    2. Eric needs a reality check and give up on above normal snows. Even before winter began he should have figured that near-below normal is the way to go.

      And as it is, Boston probably has a greater than 50/50 chance of a new record for least snowfall in a season (2.3”).

      1. 1936-37 = 9.0”
      2. 2011-12 = 9.3”
      3. 1972-73 = 10.3”

      1. I am no long range expert, but there is NOTHING WHATSOEVER that I see, applying every ounce of meteorological experience and common sense that I possess, including the application of past history of patterns very similar to this, that would even remotely make me think for a moment that forecasting above normal snowfall for the winter would be the right way to go at this point. I still don’t think Boston will break a least-snowy record though. I can more comfortably say that it finishes in the 10-20 inch range now, which is still significantly below my initial winter forecast for the snow total there.

        1. I know. I’m referring to others that have said it. I am pretty sure Eric is not in agreement with that thought process now.

            1. And this is where they diverge. I didn’t see the newscast. Did he mention above for the winter, or for February? I could technically buy above normal for February and still well below normal for the season.

              1. Well, the impression I got was for the entire season. Maybe I misinterpreted but I don’t believe so. When stats are thrown out I always try to pay attention as much as possible as to what the met is saying.

  20. I am slightly amused looking at the phase diagram for the Ensemble GFS forecast, a few members showing MJO suddenly coming alive and moving into a strong phase 8. 😉

      1. At this point, no. But it has been hinting at a little more life and a little more favorable phase at some point. I do think we cross into 8 and maybe make 1 or 2. If this happens, the window opens a bit wider. I’m not biting hard on this yet.

    2. That is encouraging. Euro ensembles have been projecting the MJO to eventually drift into Phase 8 for several days now. Nice to see some more model agreement there.

      1. It’s not solid agreement, as many members keep it less intense and in phase 7, but it’s a touch more than we’ve seen.

  23. Yesterday I noticed tiny green things already poking through my backyard. They are likely going to be my snowdrops. I’ve never seen them this early. Global warming obviously at work. Heartwarming and a bit scary at the same time. 🙂

  24. TK – Assuming we get meaningful snow this month, will it come in one “last” event or several events?

    1. If I could answer that on February 3 and be right about it, I’d be a very rich human being. The only thing “rich” about me is my middle name (Richard). 😛

      1. This must be a very complicated pattern that you can’t at least take an educated “wild” guess. You’re usually good at that. No problem though. I know you will be the first met to figure it out when it occurs. 🙂

  27. I don’t have a dog in the fight tonight so I am hoping for a close game. Hard to bet against the Pats. I think this is the first Super Bowl they win by more than a touchdown. 38-24 Patriots.

    1. They’ve been blowout in SBs 1986 and 1996 but have never had a blowout on their own. It’s always been by 3-6 points. Would love to see them wrap it up by 3rd quarter/early 4th quarter. Probably like wishing for a major blizzard though.

    2. JJ I hope that your cowboys will be in this game soon.

      Oddly, as much as I hate to have them lose, I always figure the best team wins. Not tonight. To me it would be the ultimate insult if the Rams win. Just my opinion.

  28. I still believe we will get at least ONE decent snowstorm before this winter is over. Probably in March, if not in Feb. Maybe even April, for all we know! LOL!

    Go Patriots!

      2. You’re right. I forgot. I believe it was Nov.? Oh, well.

        It does feel less cold out than it has, but the snowcover (here in Sudbury, anyway) keeps the air rather cool and damp.

        1. Yes we finally got a bit of moisture into the air the last couple days. It’s been exceedingly dry recently.

  29. JPD. I just saw your post above. Zithromax has a history of needing two rounds. I react well to antibiotics and have always needed two. I do hope that after day 6 or 7 Mrs OS starts to turn the corner.

    My nearly 7 year old grand has developed an allergic reaction to antibiotics. She will have to head to children’s to be tested to find out what she can tolerate.

    Putting it bluntly…it sucks. I’m sorry for all Mrs OS has gone through.

    1. thanks Vicki.
      I certainly hope she doesn’t need round 2, but We need to give it a couple of days
      after today to see.

  30. Philip, I’ve also seen tv mets, including Tim Kelley, say that snowstorms are coming to SNE this month. He said this as recently as last week. Like you, I’m very surprised about Barry being so bullish on snow. I know that a wait and see approach doesn’t make for great tv. But at this point if I were a forecaster I’d wait and see. Try and get the short and mid range (up to 5-7 days) right, and forget about the long-range for now.

    By the way, I would not attribute global warming to the green shoots that are poking through in your garden. Even if this had been a very mild winter I wouldn’t do that. As you know, global warming is a long-term trend and can’t be based on an event or a single year’s data. Furthermore, this winter has not been very mild. In fact, my guess is that it’s been slightly above normal, but no more than slightly. Snowdrops tend to poke through early. I’m surprised they’re doing so right now as it’s certainly been very cold and they haven’t had the insulation that snow provides. I have seen very active sparrows lately, making lots of noise and chasing each other. This makes sense as they’re early family creators. Red-winged blackbirds will be returning soon, in a couple of weeks.

    1. I could never stand there and say “snowstorms are coming”. I could easily stand there and say “we’re entering a pattern more conducive to winter weather events that produce frozen precipitation”.

    2. My snowdrops don’t usually poke out until mid-late February at the earliest and sometimes not until early March. Very strange this time so early.

      1. The ones in my area are usually out around now. In a mild winter (which this is not) they tend to come just after the first crocuses.

  31. I say we still see more snow we have seen all winter in one or two storms this month, with one more in March.

    1. Well we all know how the models have been but if the GFS is even in the ballpark the February snow will have to come toward the end of the month. 😉

        1. The GFS and to be fair other models as well have been preaching a lot of things that have not happened. This is the point I’ve been trying to make about models being essentially useless beyond day 3.

        1. Just be careful how much stock you put in those trends as they are being put out by very bad model performances. Making use of knowledge of model shortcomings will serve you very well.

  35. I hope everyone is feeling better real soon. I had really bad laryngitis this week, much to the delight of my students and my family!
    A big Patriots win tonight will certainly lift everyone’s spirits (of course, if they’re your team!) I told my students this week not to ever take this unbelievable run for granted!!!

    Super Bowl LIII: Pats 31 (XXXI), Rams 21 (XXI)
    Temperature right now is: XL

    Enjoy the game, everyone!
    Go Pats!!!

  38. Matt, I agree. I don’t like domes at all. I’m old-fashioned. I would prefer the Superbowl to be played in the stadium of the team with the best record. This year that would be LA. Some years, like last, it would have been New England.

    In any case, I’m already on the edge of my seat for this one. Loved seeing the Bruins defeat Washington, Celtics take care of OKC. Now it’s time for New England to beat LA, 28-27.

  41. Moving. Glayds Knight hasn’t aged and her voice is every bit as strong.

    I never have a dry eye during the anthem but when they show our troops, the faucets open

    1. I’m usually calm until toward the end.

      I have tons of food and am not hungry. Says my stomach is nervous. Although I just folded Macs Pats sweatshirt on my lap and feel an odd calmness.

      I may head out on the deck later with my headphones. I can also see the tv from there.

  45. I’ve been relaxed. This super bowl appearance is the Patriots best accomplishment of their 9 during this run.

    With that said, I thought they largely dominated the first half, but don’t have much to show for it in the first half by being ahead by only 3.

  50. I dearly love my FB friends but my goodness they were blowing up my news feed about how bad the halftime show was. Ok maybe not awesome but it wasn’t that bad. It was a super bowl halftime show. They’re all like that pretty much. M5 sounded pretty good. It’s a stadium, not someone’s living room. Commercials were good. Google won for me. I think the thing that got me laughing the most was how many people thought the game was boring. Boring? Is offense the only thing that entertains? We saw a display of 2 great defenses fighting it out for 3 quarters and change, and then the experienced team took over and got the job done. You know, not every game has to have a combined 50+ points to be a good game. This was a great game. Some people just weren’t paying attention. 🙂 That is all!

    Will be back on the maps with the 00z info to start prepping tomorrow’s update. 🙂

    1. Sorry. While I didn’t blow up your news feed I thought the half time show was anything but good. And some of the lyrics. This is a family show no?

      Although the songs in the commercials made up for it.

      1. I agree about the lyrics. I thought M5 was good but the others, not so much. If you want people to hear your song, why would you sing it that way knowing half of it’s going to be muted anyway? Doesn’t make sense. 🙂

        I still think my favorite halftime show was U2 17 years ago this very night.

  51. Lowest scoring Super Bowl ever . Everyone all week had a blow out & I never saw that . This was a classic dogfight at its best hands down .

    1. I don’t think I saw anybody say blowout. Everybody I heard from said close game. I didn’t think it would be this low, scoring-wise, but yet that doesn’t really surprise me either.

      1. Not hear Tk I didn’t think I needed to say that . Sports radio Tk I’ve been listing to it for two weeks non stop they had pats by big speculative talk .

  54. Edelman was sensational. He’s Mr. Clutch. Gronkowski played a great game, and didn’t look like the player he was at the end of the season.

    The coaching on defense was nothing short of masterful. The offensive line was coached by a brilliant strategist.

    This is the ultimate team game. It’s not about individuals. The Patriots are winners because they play together like no other team, not because they have a Beckham or a Brown or some other prima donna.

    I am especially happy for the unheralded Patriots who were undrafted (Jackson), wanted one last run at a championship with a twin brother (McCourty), played for Brown University (Develin), and so on and so forth.

    1. I’m happy for gronk. He’s had a really tough year physically and mentally. My heart has aches for him. He’s been gronk last couple of games

  55. Way to go patriots,Got 250 bucks because of the first half. I had a feeling that the defenses had it with the talk of a lot of ponts. One touchdown. Oldfasion football game.

  57. The first time in Boston sports history that two professional teams win their respective Championships in the same year.

  59. Random thoughts –
    -Wow. What a game. I expected an offensive explosion, instead we got a defensive masterpiece. This one reminds us all that there are other phases of the game. And over this incredible 17 years we have won Championships based on all 3. First it was special teams and AV leg, then we had some incredible ones with the trademark Brady Arm and now to round it out tonight the defense won it for us. Says a lot for BB. He really does practice what he preaches about playing well in all phases.

    -JpDave – please take your wife back to doc as if she needs another round they should start it ASAP. If it’s a zpak I’m skeptical if it will work as it never has cleared out pneumonia for me. As I mentioned request they try other antibiotics than those in the flaxin group. She may need the antibiotics by IV though – so she may need to be admitted :-(. I’m allergic to everything from latex to adhesives to sulfa drugs and many antibiotics so I know it’s dreadful to be in the hospital, but she may need her 02 level monitored and IV antibiotics. I can’t state this strongly enough – get her back to the doc and admitted if she is still running a fever. Have TK send you my contact info if you want to discuss off blog.

    -Finally – you know we haven’t had much snow when even I am rooting for a snowstorm. Not actually sure if this has ever happened since senior year of high school. But our new home has a great sledding hill – so c’mon snow!!

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