Monday Forecast

108 Comments

6:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Ready for a couple days that feel a bit like spring? It’s just a teaser, and while the winter’s had a couple frigid blasts, it’s been relatively easy to this point compared to many. Real New Englanders know to not get complacent when it’s been like this, because you never know what can happen right through March and even into April, so there is a long way to go yet. But in the short term, we know these very nice days are upon us as a west to southwest air flow will transport milder air into the region. A trough will pass by early Tuesday with a possible rain shower, but there will be limited moisture to work with and many areas will remain dry. A cold front that comes by Tuesday evening will bring a seasonable chill and a dose of reality back to the region by the middle of the week, and then a complex set system will bring unsettled weather to the area starting Wednesday evening and lasting well into Friday. The way it looks like it will go now is that a wave of low pressure will come along the boundary that had passed by late Tuesday, bringing some scattered sleet/ice/rain Wednesday night, with a brief break, followed by a warm front that will bring a period of rain and some potential icing over interior areas Thursday, a brief visit from the warm sector early Friday before a cold front comes along with a rain shower risk followed by a late-day return to colder air. The timing on this could change, so pay attention to updates through the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible northern MA and southern NH pre-dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 except 47-54 Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Scattered sleet, freezing rain, and rain at night. Highs 32-39. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, some freezing rain possible inland areas. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a risk of rain/drizzle/fog early. Variably cloudy after with late-day rain showers possibly ending as snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Rapid temperature drop possible late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
The February 9-10 weekend will be cold and dry with windy conditions on February 9 and more tranquil weather on February 10 as high pressure approaches from the west then moves over the region. Unsettled weather returns during the February 11-13 period with a risk of snow/ice/rain from the passage of 1 or 2 waves of low pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures near to below normal with a split flow and wide jet stream separation with a subtropical jet well to the south and a polar jet across the US/Canada border.

108 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. That may very well be true. Still going with them to reach 20 but now even I’m starting to doubt that. šŸ˜›

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Nineteen years to the day from their first win, against the same team and on Tom Brady’s half birthday. Into the 50s and maybe 60 for the parade

    Nice way to begin the month!!!

      1. Yes it was way more swamped five years ago. Nobody has commented on my brady thanos image i snuck in the forecasts. lol

  6. My favorite commercials…..

    Washington Post for love of country feel
    The touchdown commercial for laughs that only got louder as it continued
    T Mobile because that would be Mac and the music and food choice was perfect

    Gladys Knight was absolutely amazing. And loved seeing Joe Namath at the end.

  7. Favorite commercials the M&M commercial and the passing of the football by former and current NFL players.

    1. I’ll have to recheck the M&M – the passing of the football was the one I called touchdown and meant to call fumble.

      I’m not really focused this morning. Other things on my mind. But that one just made me laugh louder with each second.

  8. Good morning all. Busy at work. Yes, for today I am at work. Leaving shortly and we’ll
    see what is happening at home.

    re: Wather
    Blah, blah, blah!!

    re: Super Bowl
    Awesome Game!!!

    NOT a disappointment at all. It clearly showed Belichick’s brilliance.
    Clearly it was a team victory.

    re: Edelman
    WELL deserved MVP award.
    And to think there were those who thought hes was on Steroids and would never be
    the same player. He proved them all wrong FWIW, I heard that the subtance
    was Aderol (a ADHA medication).

    re: Half time show
    Despite what others have stated, I thought that Maroon Five were awesome. I LOVED it! Wife and I have seen them twice before, once at Mohegan Sun and once at
    MGM in Las Vegas. Both times with decent seats, so we could see and hear very well.

    1. Old salty Iā€™m sure you saw it but Mama Mia left you a very thoughtful post with some valuable information regarding your wife . Hope she is better .

        1. Of course I am no doctor but honestly if she is no different today I agree & would absolutely demand she be hospitalized as sheā€™s been down for some time . Good luck

            1. You care to bet on that? I’ve personally witnessed them F’ing it up! I do not trust any of them!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Thanks TK.

    Below tweet from Ryan Hanrahan. You can clearly see who has snow cover and who doesn’t this AM across SNE. It’s a pretty defined line. That line will be receding NW today I would imagine.

    @ryanhanrahan Ā· 6m6 minutes ago
    Awesome satellite loop this morning showing the thick fog along the coast from Old Saybrook to Stonington and snow on the ground north and west of Hartford. #nbcct
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1092454048249331712

  10. Eric Fisherā€ļ€²Verified accountļ‚™ @ericfisher Ā· 2h2 hours ago

    Outside chance of hitting 60 today…should be a lock tomorrow. Last 3 Februarys have all had at least 3 days in the 60s.

    1. Remarkable oscillation. Just a few days ago the mercury barely reached the teens, now it’s headed straight into spring territory.

      Philip’s snowdrops won’t just peek out of the ground. They’ll go into early spring mode.

      Of course winter isn’t over. But, these warm-ups always signify a major turning point. Winter’s trough is over, if we can even call it a trough this year. On the flip side, cool nights in early August signify a major turning point when summer’s peak is over. Winter has only a little bit of time left. And, from what the models suggest it’s yet not even putting up a fight in SNE.

      The ice on the Charles is already in an accelerated hairline receding mode. All of it will be gone by Wednesday. That’s how warm it’s going to be. And that ice ain’t returning folks. Even when it gets cold this weekend and later this month, the only ice that will form on the Charles will be near the banks.

      1. Maybe my crocuses will come up as well, although both flowers never appear at the same time. Snowdrops are always first. šŸ™‚

        1. Your crocuses will come up this week. Warm sun, more sunlight hours, no frost basically until Friday. Ingredients for crocuses’ coming out party. The magnolia in front of the building I live in won’t bloom. But, I can see the buds getting ready. If we got 50sF on Wednesday and Thursday they’d bloom. But, we won’t be getting that warm for a while.

        1. Me, too. Do not go out on the ice today unless you live in Central and Northern New England. Or unless it’s a shallow pond.

  12. Just a thought: this felt like a muted win. All wins are different but the last win when I went to Dickā€™s there was so much more energy and excitement. I think people donā€™t like defensive football. They want a shootout. I think that is the reason for less palpable excitement and not because of six championships and feeling spoiled like I am hearing people say.

    1. I absolutly loved the fact that it was a defensive game and it wasn’t actually all defense the patriots still got like 260 yards of passing and over a 100 yards rushing. Still was close to 400 yards of total offense by the patriots. This was an amazing Superbowl and was actually the only Patriot superbowl wins that had more than 6 points šŸ˜‰ This showed how good Bill is and is certainly a hall of famer coach. first round hall of famer just like Brady. Jules is also a hall of famer and for those that say he does not belong in the hall of fame because he catches from Brady, who did Jerry Rice catch the ball from šŸ˜‰ thats my response to them.

    2. I live close to downtown and every time there is a championship win (which is a regular occurrence in title town) I hear the crowds, people honking, etc … Less noise last night than 2 years ago. Also, less noise in October when the Sox won than in 2013. Fans adore their teams, but are getting a bit blase about it.

      Too bad, because the Sox dominance in 2018 will probably never be matched in our lifetime. And the ability of the Patriots to overcome adversity, several talent gaps, and a national media that is praying for the dynasty to end, is astounding. This was almost as great a victory as the 2002 Superbowl.

      By the way, I love defensive football, and have never been a fan of 54-51 shootouts. Contrary to what the popular media says, defensive football is not going away anytime soon. The facts are clear on this. Points scored in the last 6 games of the regular season were way down compared to the first 10 games. In the playoffs that trend continued, well, accelerated rather dramatically. Teams with better defenses tend to win. The Patriots were better defensively than the Chargers, Chiefs, and Rams. Last year, the Patriots were not good defensively. And that was ultimately why they lost to the Eagles.

      1. Forgot to add that I love defensive football. I enjoyed last nights win. The casuals are who hate defensive football.

        By the way – the AAF starts up on Saturday and Sunday. Its a new football league run by the Ebersols. Going to be on CBS and ESPN. I canā€™t wait to see what kind of fooball it winds up being. Gunna watch a few games then decide who to root for.

  13. Thanks TK !

    I loved the game. It could have been 2-0 and it would have worked for me.

    It was close the whole time, that to me is nerve-wracking and thus, I was engaged in the flow of the game.

    1. I joked with a client during a teleconference on Thursday that the Patriots would win 3-0. That was most definitely not my actual predicted score (28-27), but I figured I’d kid around a little to break the ice during the teleconference. When it was 3-0 in the 3rd quarter I was thinking, wow, it could actually turn out to be 3-0.

    2. Tom – I absolutely agree. As much as I did not like the Rams being there, they were still a final team. The scores should be close IMO when it comes down to the best of the best.

      I think it would have been near impossible not to be engaged if you were a fan of either team.

      So how are your students doing today šŸ˜‰ Captain ?? šŸ˜‰

      1. To add. I’ve seen a bunch of comments that Goff was frazzled / overwhelmed ….. I have no idea why anyone would say that. If it were truly the case, the score would have been a whole lot higher.

    1. It’ll get broken, I think. Tomorrow the record will be shattered (70F is not inconceivable). Very warm to our southwest and that’s where the wind is coming from.

  16. Mama Mia,

    Thank you for your post on the previous blog. I did see it an appreciate it very much.
    I went to work today for the 1st time in over a week as she has been resting better
    and not having those coughing/choking fits. We are not sure yet if the medicine worked or not as the medicine itself made her sicker, but she got through it.

    Just seeing her and speaking with her at lunch, she “seems” a bit better. Hope it is not simply wishful thinking.

    We shall see.

    Many thanks again.

  17. Joshua, I would not agree with your comment that “these warm-ups always signify a major turning point.” 2-3 day thaws are actually very common in January and February and happen almost every year. Remember last year when we had a couple 75 degree days in February? We ended up with one of the snowiest and colder March – early April time periods in recent memory.

    Not saying that is going to happen this year but this warmup doesn’t necessarily mean much. We look to go back to near or below normal temps by the weekend.

  18. 46 even up at Killington right now. Hopefully the ski areas can make it through this week OK with some very mild days and a couple precip events that will be largely liquid.

  20. Mark, perhaps there’s a misunderstanding. These warm-ups are indeed fairly common, just as cool-downs in August are. I just have always viewed these as turning points. Not the end of winter, or the end of summer. Just turning points. A way of nature telling us that seasonal change is in the offing soon.

    1. I could see your point if this were, say, mid March but its still Feb 4 and we are only halfway thru winter. So a bit early in my opinion.

  21. 12z Euro, GFS and FV3 all have a plowable snow event here next Tuesday. Euro has a benchmark track, FV3 is outside the benchmark and the GFS takes the primary low west but has some coastal redevelopment.

    The GFS track would be snow to rain, the Euro track would have a rain/snow line somewhere not too far inland, and the FV3 would be a sideswipe but all snow.

    Something to watch…

  25. For the record (pun intended), Logan’s temps are still off by 1 to 2 degrees (too warm).

  29. A friend and I have tickets to the Bruins/Islanders game tomorrow night at the Garden and we were planning on heading into the city mid-late PM. Wondering if we should actually not try to get there too early given the parade route is ending at the Govt Ctr and there will probably be a lot of people dispersing in the PM. Anyone have any idea on the duration of the parade? Or has anyone attended in the past and have any idea what to expect?

    1. A lot of work places will be partially empty tomorrow. Parade stuff winds down quickly by early afternoon. I know somebody that works right in the parade area and usually has no problem getting out late in the afternoon.

      Ironically I’ll be at the game tomorrow night as well. šŸ™‚

      1. Nice! Of course, we will not be rooting for the same team šŸ™‚ It should be a good game. Both teams have been having a good season and the Islanders have surprised everyone being in first place. We can thank Barry Trotz for that (turning their defense around) and also their goalies who have been great (they are #1 and #3 in the league in GAA).

        Where are your seats? I’d love to stop by quick and say hi.

  30. If you want to know what a ā€œlocked inā€ upper level pattern looks like, the next 10 days or so are it. Trough West, ridge East. Each one reloading multiple times. Classic -PNA. The eastern ridging doesnā€™t mean all warm and dry, but it does mean no Arctic air and that snow chances, while not non-existent, will be hard to come by and will have to come in ways not involving coastal storms.

    1. What’s sad is there are still amateur pages out there preaching a cold/stormy pattern “just about to arrive” and the followers keep forgiving the horrendous predictions and labeling them as “better than the experts”. Yeah, ok.

      1. May I respectfully suggest you remove those pages from your list. I could go into far more detail on folks who are happy to follow others over a cliff but promise not to……I think

        1. I usually have them sent to me in private messages by friends that view them, then ask me if what they read is true. Can’t really escape it. They’re everywhere. It does get pretty tiring being referred to as worse than people who are using social media to play weather forecaster. It hits home. I will never stop fighting for what I do.

          1. Yes you can. TK you canā€™t fix the world. Your portion of it is great. You are not fighting for what you do….every single intelligent person knows what you do.

            Listen carefully please to words from an old lady who has been around the block long enough to know.

            You do the best you can and that is your job. And believe me you do it well. You choose to spin your wheels and that is your choice. But you will never, ever, ever, ever fix everyone.

  31. The Euro continues to insist that the MJO is headed solidly into Phase 8 and then towards Phase 1 as we head towards mid February. It has been fairly consistent in this regard:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    The GFS has come around and is now showing the same thing, though it brings it into Phase 8 a few days later.

    Also noting the PNA starts to trend from solidly negative to neutral around the same time. IF those model projections actually verify, perhaps that is when our pattern becomes more favorable.

  32. Eric Fisher tweet:

    Prob is I didn’t follow my gut and called for a snowy winter. Oops. Like you said it’s been good to the south and definitely good to the north. I won’t be remotely surprised if we go slider-cutter next week and largely missed locally again

  33. Ryan Hanrahanā€ tweet LOL:

    I’m trying to never make a seasonal forecast.

    Anthony Masielloā€ response:

    do you receive pressure to do one from your employer?

    Ryan response:

    Nope. Thank goodness. I’ll just report the NWS forecast and then say I have no idea lol

    1. Indeed they do look more promising starting mid month. But we have been down this road before. Hoping for the best but expecting the worst!

      1. I know that, i was more in talking not what the models were actually showing but the telloconnections and MJO depections that the models are showing.

        1. It’s all tied in. They kept trying to forecast MJO going into 8 and it would instead just drop into neutral and re-emerge between phases 3 and 5. Perhaps it happens again. The only difference so far is the consistency of the Euro sending it into phase 8. The GFS has been a little more excited about a stronger MJO heading through 7 with a few members getting it to 8, but I noticed today it’s tending to kind of cluster in a weaker 7. To me that may be the start of a correction toward neutral. We have actually see the GFS’s ensembles performing a little better than “the competition” so if anything gets a slight edge right now, it’s GFS over Euro regarding MJO.

    1. We almost posted this at the same time. I got distracted with a work email and so you beat me to it. Gary LaPierre’s voice has such resonance. Loved hearing it as a child growing up: “Natick Public Schools, Closed; Needham Public Schools, Closed …” and later when his perfectly enunciated headlines always seemed to strike the right tone. Never too emotional. Just right. Voices on radio are not the same without people like Gary LaPierre. He was old school, but that’s what I liked so much about him.

  36. You may recall that I joked about every other city beating Boston in the snow department (sports is a different story as we know). I added that maybe Seattle would be next. Well, that just happened. Seattle got 6 inches, which means it has doubled up on Boston’s aggregate. Boston is officially a Charlie hole. As snow chances dwindle and time runs out the possibility of the lowest snow total ever recorded in Boston is no longer a crazy thought. It’s February 4th. A lot can happen over the next, say, 60 days.

  37. Mid to late week system is looking less and less wet with time. Now are systems are starting to under-produce precipitation. No surprise. Drier trend is underway.

      1. Yes, that is possible. I just think the overall precip amount is going to be a little lower.

  38. Just getting caught up on the blog and very happy that JpDave saw my post from yesterday and thanks to SSK for mentioning it as well. I know it goes without saying that we all hope Mrs. OS is continuing to improve. But if she should switch direction and does need to get admitted – in my experience Iā€™ve found that in healthcare the old saying , ā€œthe squeaky wheel gets the greaseā€ applies (unfortunate but true) and that good cop/bad cop is a method worth considering utilizing. And further, if itā€™s helpful, Iā€™m in a profession (law) that allows me to play the bad cop role fairly easily so please donā€™t hesitate to call upon me if I can help you advocate for your wife in any way. It would feel great to be able to help you for once! Note that Iā€™m not at all a healthcare lawyer / or in any way an expert on anything remotely relevant but sometimes just them knowing an interested friend happens to also be a lawyer helps to keep everyone just a little more awake and on their toes.
    I deeply apologize if any of us are healthcare professionals and this sounds in any way hostile. I certainly donā€™t mean the above as it might sound nor as a criticism- itā€™s just a fact. No one can always be killing it every second of every day at work, and in almost any other circumstance Iā€™m not aggressive or as demanding, but when it comes to a loved ones care I will do almost anything to make sure the providers bring their A game.

    1. You have gone above & beyond to offer your assistance to basically a complete stranger . Anybody that hires you for services I have no doubt is getting an incredible experience. Again everything you have offered him & his family is extremely kind of you .

    2. Mama…..just speaking generally with nothing to do with Mrs OS or any individual here, your comments (today and the other day) have been exactly what I have found. Everyone needs an advocate when health is involved. Due diligence in choosing a doctor is a must. BUT even with the best, you have to educate yourself. You have to advocate. We have the best in our backyard but there is also the best of the best. My mom taught me by example decades ago to find the best of the best. My children know it. Thank you for sharimg your wisdom and more importantly your friendship.

  40. 0z Euro delivers a major Norā€™easter next Tuesday/Wednesday with a benchmark track and widespread 1-2 feet of snow. Iā€™m sure Twitter will be abuzz this AM. Of course, none of the other 00z models are showing this.

  41. Certainly not to the extent of the wintry event a week or 2 ago, but the models are hinting at the low level cold air really holding tough.

    2 signals.

    A very weak low passing to our south about 60 hrs from now and looking at the isobars, can see that NE to SW dig in the low level cold air.

    That weak low pressure, as it passes, I wonder if it might be good enough to bring the low level cold air temporarily right to the coast, including Boston.

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