Tuesday Forecast

74 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Two quick corrections. One, I under-forecast yesterday’s temperatures. No surprise. I also was too fast in my timing of the few showers coming through early today. They are traversing the region now and will be brief and generally through by mid morning for areas that see them. The mild air remains in control today with many areas getting to or over 60. Exceptions will be areas you’d expect to be cooler on a typical spring day, as this is similar to that (South Coast, Cape Cod). Back to reality tonight as a cold front comes through dry but delivers seasonable cold back to the region for mid to late week. This is where our unsettled period begins with a wave of low pressure coming along the front with some rain/ice/sleet Wednesday night, transitioning to mainly rain before tapering off Thursday. We will have to watch for the cold air to be a little stubborn to move for a while and temperatures possibly colder than what I will have in my ranges below. Adjustments will be made if necessary. The front will push to the north Thursday evening bringing another episode of rain then putting our area briefly into the warm sector as low pressure passes northwest of the region Friday. As its cold front comes through, rain showers are likely later Friday. Cold air comes in quickly behind that but moisture should be gone soon enough to prevent snow showers. We will watch for a secondary trough that sometimes isn’t shown by short range guidance that could bring a snow shower later Friday night. Either way, look for a windy, cold, and dry Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds and a few rain showers pushing through west to east through mid morning. Sun and passing clouds thereafter. Highs ranging from 47-56 South Coast with coolest Cape Cod to 57-65 elsewhere with warmest interior valleys. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arrives west to east mid to late evening as sleet north and rain south with pockets of freezing rain from the Boston-Providence corridor north and west. Hazardous driving possible on untreated surfaces. Lows 28-35. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Early rain except pockets of sleet and freezing rain interior. Rain returns late-day. Highs 35-42. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Early drizzle/fog possible. PM rain showers likely. Temperatures rise to upper 40s to middle 50s during the day then fall rapidly at night.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Seasonably cold air dominates this period with a dry start and end (February 10 and 14). What happens in the middle is unsettled weather but the details of which cannot be determined for a few days. A couple low pressure systems may threaten with rain/ice/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A bit milder overall but changeable temperatures with a somewhat drier trend to the overall outlook.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. We had a very brief sun shower this morning with a rainbow appearing shortly thereafter. The sky is spectacular now with layers of dark clouds along with sun brightened clouds.

    The birds were singing loudly giving, as Joshua said, the promise of changes to arrive with spring and as Mark said, not yet…….we hope.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Yesterday some schools had 2-hour delays so students could catch up on their sleep from watching the SB. Any teachers here had that at their schools? Tom? CF?

  6. Thanks TK.

    0z Euro delivers a major Norā€™easter next Tuesday/Wednesday with a benchmark track and widespread 1-2 feet of snow.

    6z GFS also delivers a plowable all snow event Tuesday with a weaker system passing to our south.

    Unfortunately this is still 7 days out so probably a pipe dream at this point!

  8. Based on what we’ve seen, I wouldn’t be surprised if the 12z EURO is rather different for a week from today.

    If the winter pattern holds, this next week system will either be an inside runner or a weaker, suppressed system to our south.

    1. I fully expect this to end up suppressed and weaker in future runs like the other models are showing. The Euro always overamplifies the southern stream at this time range out. This will be our one suppressed system in what is otherwise a sea of cutters. I guess the only positive is that it shows the atmosphere is capable of producing something like this if all the pieces come together just right.

  11. you want to know why we will have the two most active weeks starting next week? Because I start temporary work in Boston for two weeks šŸ˜‰

    3. Fantastic. Thanks for sending.

      Snow is a lot better than rain for those folks in Seattle. Glad they got some snow.

  13. Breaking news! Hold onto your seatbelts!

    12z GFS now advertising for next Tuesday…ā€¦

    ā€¦…a CUTTER!

    Try to take a deep breath and let the shock wear off. Sorry if I startled anyone.

    1. Yes, GFS showing a good 6″+ even before the changeover though some of that may be tainted with sleet. Another kitchen sink storm.

  16. Low needs to be a little further south on 12z EURO for Tues into Wed instead of on top of Long Island. 992 low right there which is more than likely over amplified.

    1. My service puts the 850 mb 0 C line more than 100 miles north of
      what Tropical tidbits did???? I don’t get that.
      As a consequence, about 2 inches of front end snow then rainorama!

    1. Youā€™ve gotta believe we will have at least one more – donā€™t you think?

      As you can see this is 100% science based!

  21. We had a situation like that in February 2016 where it was mild people out golfing a few days later accumulating snow.

    1. Last year, too, as I recall. I believe it hit 70 in parts of SNE in late February 2018, only to snow, sleet, and rain a few days later. We plunged into a relative deep freeze in March that lasted quite a while. I would not be surprised at all to have this happen again, in spite of what the long-range models suggest. March and April have this tendency to give us prolonged cold slaps in the face after the teasers in February. As I recall the 70 degree mark last February in SNE wasn’t seen again for at least 2 months. It would not surprise me in the least that today’s mid 60s in Boston will not happen again for another 6 weeks or so. I had to remind several German students of this today. One asked, “spring’s here. Wow!,” to which I responded, “enjoy it while you can, spring’s not here. This is only God’s way of teasing us into thinking spring’s here. But, we do know that spring is not far off.”

  22. After Eric Fisher’s tweet, recall some posts by WxW, SAK (via his blog link), JMA, and myself, regarding guidance, and that is ALL guidance, beyond day 3, including the “all mighty Euro” which by the way, is not really all mighty. It just has a decent pattern track record if you know its biases and adjust for them. Yeah, nothing has changed since those weeklies came out and nothing is changing now.

      1. Yes it should result in pretty widespread slick spots on untreated surfaces. A lot of cold air coming in tonight / tomorrow that will settle in at the surface and be very hard to dislodge.

    1. unlike that event 1 to 2 weeks ago, where there was a front end dump of snow that helped provide some traction, this event can be straight ice from the start. I think this one may be even more impactful, even though its been 60F plus the last 2 days.

  27. Great day for a parade today . A couple takes from it . While the mayor is ordering fans no drinking in public you got a lot of the patriots are openly chugging away beers & champagne. Bradyā€™s poor daughter getting hit with a beer can & than that horrendous brawl in the north end ( wow to that one ) ugh !!!!!!

    1. I read she was almost hit and hope that is the case. She is a love. Howvee, No excuse for that either. Seems those arrested after were mostly juveniles and you are correct that alcohol was involved

      I saw some amazing photos and understand it was one of the largest crowds ever to cheer our team. Awesome job Patriots, Boston PD, and fans.

      1. Yes almost it literally just missed her it went in boat & Brady did not look happy . BUT when Gronk is tossing them himself in the crowd I donā€™t know . The drinking going on by the team really surprised me . 1.5 million .

        1. Gronkā€™s wine sells for several hundred a bottle. Our boy is growing up……The manā€™s palate has clearly matured.

  28. Iā€™m not going to listen to any of the advice. Iā€™m going to write an article for the patch about next weeks sure bet blizzard.

  29. Was a beautiful day for a parade, and 99% of people behaved themselves. But, I did notice some loutish elements in the crowd. Heck, they were there during the Red Sox parade. My biggest complaint is trash. I do wonder why so many people just chuck empty beer cans and other items on the ground. The trash is strewn all over the place. And, in many spots the trash cans weren’t even filled!

    By the way, the man who fought off this mountain lion is one tough dude. Try to imagine strangling a cougar who’s trying to kill you:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47136308

  30. The crowd was larger than the one that celebrated the Red Sox, and a lot younger. MLB’s got a big problem on its hand as younger folks abandon baseball. This is even happening to a lesser extent in one of America’s best baseball markets; Boston. Sure, Boston still has plenty of Red Sox fans, including younger ones. But, there are clearly more Patriots supporters than Sox fans right now. More overall interest. I have to admit it, judging on the turnout and just the vibe I get listening to sports radio, reading the newspapers. While I prefer baseball, I’m an old man (54).

    1. Maybe viewership is better for football now but wait 20-30 years bc far
      less kids playing football now. I know I wonā€™t let my kids near a football field. I canā€™t let me play it based on everything we know. Wonder if it will make an impact on viewership down the road.

  31. There were a number of my students who were out of class today, apparently suffering from the GOAT flu! šŸ™‚

    1. Good for them . I let my son stay home to watch it on tv I also gave him permission to go into the parade with a responsible adult but that didnā€™t pan out .

  32. Hadi, you may be right. I’m concerned about the effects of football on someone like Edelman, and many others. They made a voluntary choice to play a violent game. But still, the game’s inherent dangers (let alone the widespread use of steroids and other PEDs) have serious health implications. In turn, this will have an impact on numbers of people willing to play down the road.

  33. While I might mope about the weather, I’m happy not to no longer endure what most winters are like in the Netherlands. Check out the 5 day forecast below. It’s 40s, rain, and very windy. That’s in every day. Sometimes this kind of weather can last months, with no breaks. That, my friends, can cause serious cases of SAD. The link below is in Dutch, but if you scroll down you’ll see the forecast numbers in Celsius. Wind is always reported in Beaufort scale numbers. Sustained 4 to 6 (13 to 30mph) is very typical during winter in Holland. Gale force (anything above 8 or >39mph) is very common, too. Of course, gusts can be much higher, and there’s nothing holding them back. No hills or mountains or even many trees.

    https://nos.nl/weer/

  34. Re: footballā€™s future – I read recently that only one insurance carrier will still underwrite the NFL. If thatā€™s true and if they pull coverage down the road that will end football pretty quickly. Iā€™m very torn as Iā€™m a life long Pats fan (yup I was die hard way before this dynasty thing) but what theyā€™re discovering about CTE is truly frightening. They are estimating a min of 10 percent up to 30 or even 40 percent of players might develop it. If thatā€™s even close to correct I think football is cooked. But if thatā€™s true it should be.

  35. All sports have risk of injury trust me I know, destroyed my lower leg/ankle when racing, funny thing is that I didn’t feel it until ski patrol took be aside and brought me inside and tried to take the ski boot off. Luckily I was wearing a helmet šŸ˜‰

    In terms of banned substances, there are things that the NFL ban that largely limit prescriptions that other wise would be more effective in terms of recovery especially with lower body injuries. Only 1 of the 4 things the doctor said I should take would be acceptable to them. Its a very hard situation especially since I took the only one available and it took much longer for me to fully heal I understand the want to heal quicker.

    My mom would never of allowed me to play football, my parents both work in the medical field. She never new how common leg injuries are in skiing. Despite this, if I ever have a family I would never allow them to play football except for backyard stuff/school yard. But would also let them go skiing if they want too as even though there is a risk of injury, in any sports you can injure yourself, just have to see how common it is.

    In terms of the mental stuff well, they should use their head and not hit people with their heads. Its a certain type of defensive player that ends up with these issues.

  36. Playing the devils advocate….surprise to all I am sure. I donā€™t know many sports without inherent risks. Maybe golf.

    But yikes….Skiing, hockey, baseball, nascar, and on I go. My oldest chose equestrian. I could have discouraged her, and every time she went flying off of her pony I sure wanted to, but it made her the person she is today. My uncle was being scouted by the NFL but a head injury ended that hope. Because of that, my mom wouldnā€™t let my brother play football. I sure understood that. He worked summers for a moving company …often shirtless in the heat. He developed malignant melanoma on his right shoulder. I lost him at 43.

    I think every parent has to do what he or she feels is best for his child and there is never a wrong decision because the decision is made from love. If is equally important to respect the individual decisions

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