Friday Forecast

145 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
A cold front will push through the region today with rain showers through the middle of the day then a drying process thereafter. It’ll be fairly mild today but cold air will be moving in rather quickly this evening and tonight, setting up a dry and cold weekend, blustery Saturday and more tranquil Sunday. A weakening system will pass south of the region Monday keeping its patchy snow area to the south as well. By Tuesday, a larger low pressure system will be approaching from the southwest and with cold air in place this one may start as snow by late in the day or at night for much of the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through midday then becoming partly cloudy from west to east by late in the day. Highs 45-52. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day or nighttime snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
A storm passing through the region early in the period, with the set-up favoring snow to mix to rain. Dry, colder weather returns February 14 but may have to watch another system February 15-16 before dry and cold weather is back to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
A system likely gets pushed mostly south of the region early to mid period otherwise mainly dry and seasonably chilly weather expected.

145 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK.

    It is a sad day in Sutton….and I suspect many other places throughout the world. My sister-in-law passed away last night. She was more like a sister to me. We talked every night with very few exceptions. But she is with her mom and dad and with our Mac. She had a life that most will never know. As a friend said about her mom….she didn’t die, she lived!

    1. A sad day indeed. Although I never met her, I felt like I knew her from your stories. Thoughts and prayers are with you all.

    2. I only post here occasionally (usually when I want to complain about snow lol) but I read the posts and comments every day and have been since the old days on the other site but Vicki, I just wanted to extend my condolences to both you and the rest of your family.

    4. Very sorry to hear that Vicki. Sending condolences and good thoughts your way in what I’m sure is a very difficult time. Those are some really nice words you’ve written about her.

    8. Oh my gosh. I just returned and cried harder as I read your wonderful sentiments. What a family you all are. Thank you.

      Philip – yes, Jenny is the one who lives in Atlanta.

    9. Sorry to hear of this vicki. May she live on in your heart and the hearts of tjose whose lives she touched.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Varying amounts of snow delivered by models from the system Tuesday night into
    Wednesday. There “appears” that there will be a change to sleet/ice/rain with
    this event, although there are still a few days for things to settle out.

    Euro has nearly 8 inches for Boston.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Looks more likely that we’ll see snow on Tuesday. Hooray! All that talk (some of it started by me – I apologize a 1000 times as Ted Sarandis used to say) about possibly breaking records for the least amount of snow may be out the window by Wednesday morning. I’m hoping for an all-snow event.

    1. hey, It’s only Friday. Anything can still happen.
      Perhaps we’ll get 6-8 inches in JP while Logan records a paltry 0.4 inch. ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€ ๐Ÿ˜€

  8. Y2k question why does it look like behind the low next week the models are actually showing it warm up instead of getting colder. Is it because of the west to east movement of the system, or because of the placement of parent low?

  9. My weather thoughts haven’t really changed much for the coming week. I didn’t buy those model runs yesterday showing a much weaker primary low with early coastal redevelopment. The ensembles never supported that, and with the amplitude of this pattern, you’re likely not going to dodge another strong cutter. Looks like the initial leading wave around Monday will be mostly suppressed, as expected, with some light snow for parts of the mid-Atlantic and possibly into SNE. And then the primary low cuts through the Great Lakes around Tuesday-Wednesday. However, it’s a colder air mass ahead of it, there’s a strong high to the north, and there could still be some attempt at a coastal transfer. So we could see a pretty solid front end thump of snow to ice before the rain. The way this winter’s gone, I’m leery of a trend to warmer- this would be caused by an even stronger and more westward primary low which reduces the coastal energy transfer. But at this early stage it does look like a few to several inches of snow are on the table for many. It would be an “against the pattern” snowfall, but we know that those happen now and again.

    And then, I’m becoming pretty interested in that period centered around 2/16. If we’re going to sneak a true coastal storm into this pattern, that could be the one brief window as the SE Ridge temporarily relaxes before another rebuild. Low confidence, and the ridge may not even ease back enough to let it happen, but it’s something I’ll be watching.

      1. Sure it will try but I think two weaker waves than modeled. Front end snow into marginal surface temps and warm air riding over top keeping it from being all snow. Potential for a moderate impact event. Not sure where ECWMF is getting 8″ of snow as .mentioned above? 00Z only produces 0.6 of QPF in Boston and it is not going to all fall as snow.

  11. Tk,

    Thank you for the response on yesterdayโ€™s blog.

    Vicki, Iโ€™m sorry for your loss. God Bless!

    Tj

  13. Sorry Vicki to hear the news.

    Tweet from Tim K:

    somehow the ice on Charles River is hanging on
    I believe Boston gets a seasons worth of snow by Saint Patrick’s Day
    & goes in books warmer & wetter than ‘normal, w near ‘normal’ snowfall

    1. Was surprised, too. A lot of it was gone, but I’d say about 40% of the Charles in Boston has at least some ice.

      Tim Kelley’s been saying it’ll snow in SNE – also at the coast – for a while now. He’s persistent. Let’s hope he’s right. I like Kelley because of his `big picture’ overviews that take us all around the North American Continent and sometimes beyond.

    2. “I believe Boston gets a seasons worth of snow by Saint Patrickโ€™s Day”

      Two pronged question here: what guidance has he seen to make him believe this?

      What would he consider “a seasons worth” that he feels will fall within a 37 day timeframe? (Well…33 day timeframe since there’s nothing between now and the potential storm for boston next week)

  14. It’s been such a difficult period for you, Vicki.

    Your spirit and joie-de-vivre is an inspiration to us all at WHW.

    1. Aww you are kind. I have some special angels on my shoulders….I know we all do…and they make me smile. And you know we believe in signs and get a bunch. I knew last night just before before her brother called that she had passed. And I knew Mac was with her. God winks

    1. That is really sweet. I may share some stories at some point if TK says it is all right. And at a slow time.

  17. Thank you TK for the update.

    12z GFS is in and shows a pretty strong primary low tracking well west for Tuesday. Secondary redevelopment basically happens right over SNE. Would be a quick burst of snow to mix to heavy rain scenario. More of the same stuff. This would however be a nice snowstorm for NNE.

    Beyond that….pretty much a carbon copy storm later in the week. Secondary redevelopment again right over us. Little frozen and a lot of rain again.

    And the middle of the following week? You guessed it! Another cutter on 2/20.

    Lousy run.

    1. You can all thank me for this snow-less winter. For the first time ever I actually hired a plow guy for my driveway. You’re welcome.

  18. 12z Canadian and 0z Euro look colder for Tuesday. More frozen precip and coastal redevelopment sooner and farther southeast. We’ll see what the 12z Euro has to say…..

  22. Ryan Hanrahanโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @ryanhanrahan ยท 4m4 minutes ago

    All the midday models continue the theme of an ugly looking storm by Tuesday PM. Doubt much rain with that high position – snow and ice more likely (except SE CT). More starting at 4 on @NBCConnecticut #nbcct

  23. Can someone report to Logan Airport, before next Tuesday and train the individual who measures snow fall during a storm, in case Logan gets a 3 to 4 inch front end dump. We don’t want that recorded as 1.2 inches again …………….

  26. Dave, I was just about to comment that the 12z Euro looks similar to the 0z run but it appears to be slightly warmer with the 850 0C line a bit farther NW.

    12z Euro snowmap:
    https://imgur.com/a/TtwzDp5

    This looks way overdone based on the surface and upper level features (as usual)

  28. The 12z Euro, like the GFS, has pretty much a carbon copy scenario with the late week storm next week. Another cutter with coastal redevelopment too late. Only difference is that the second one is being modeled a bit warmer right now…less up front snow/mix and more rain.

    I’m nearing 1″ already on the month at my house. After next week, will be well on the way to a 9th straight month of well above normal precip.

  29. Seattle about to get pounded again for the second time in a week. Downtown Seattle under a WSW for 4-6″ of snow today…

    https://www.weather.gov/sew/

    Season to Date Snow:

    Sea-Tac: 2.7″ + whatever falls today
    Logan: 2.3″ + whatever falls Tuesday

    It’s going to be a race to the finish!

  32. When it’s snowing in Seattle twice in a week you know it’s a `different’ kind of winter.

    Models look increasingly doubtful for snow in Boston next week. Perhaps some, but not much and all will be washed away.

    Unfortunately my exposed brick walls in my subterranean unit leaked again earlier this week. Called in an expert who said it’s due to over-saturation and a very high water table. Next week the walls will leak again as it’s going to be plenty wet … again.

    1. Not sure if you saw the photo I posted of a friend’s yard on Mercer Island, WA, the other day. She is loving it.

  33. Could the pats get an early gift & get clutch Danny back โ€” I would do everything to make this happen as apparently Miami is cutting ties . Stay tuned.

  34. IF we can get MJO into phase 8 at moderate strength by about one week from now, we may have a widespread snow threat in about 10 days. If it stalls in 7 or sinks in magnitude, forget it most likely. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  35. Just turned on my computer.

    Vicki – so sorry to hear about your sister-in-law. She was a very special person. My thoughts and prayers go out to you and family.

      1. Unfortunately, we have so many trees in our neighborhood I didn’t see that – or wasn’t looking carefully enough. Wish I had seen that.

  37. Vicki, thanks for sending the picture from Mercer Island, WA. A friend of mine lives in Lake Stevens – ~40 miles (?) and the storm earlier this week produced a foot of snow. The mountains always get lots of snow, but anything close to sea level tends to be all rain.

  38. SSK, is Miami cutting ties with Amendola? Wow. Didn’t he have a guaranteed $12 million contract? And yes, I’d definitely want him back, just to spell Edelman at times. Also want Golden Tate and a tight end in the draft.

    1. It looks that way I read it on sports hub 98.5. If true pats better go after him with a vengeance.

      1. About 1/2 mile or less from ocean.

        Vicki, sorry to hear the news! hope everyone is doing as well as thy can.

        1. Iโ€™m sooooo jealous. What a great place to retire to. And thank you. Iโ€™m having a bit of trouble not picking up the phone for our daily 5:00 chat but Iโ€™ll just talk with Jen and Mac when I sit on the deck later.

    1. I do worry because I see a few more members of the GFS clustering in 7 and not really moving as much. And the GFS has been more accurate with its MJO forecasts for quite a while.

      1. It definitely wants to stay in 7 longer, but the bulk of those eventually get to Phase 8. Blend it with the Euro and it looks pretty damn good.

        That said….in 48 hours it will probably look like sh!t again ๐Ÿ™‚

  42. Please bring on this storm . First day back today after 8 weeks no pay so an all-nighter snow storm overtime will help some

  43. 6 years ago on this day…..

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1093889952105009156

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1093879473668263936

    I will never forget what I like to call the “death band” that pivoted into CT the night of the storm. Unprecedented 55-60 dBZ band on radar…..never have I experienced snow that heavy in my life! In Coventry, we snowed 5″/hour for two straight hours and I received a foot in 2.5 hours. I reported this to the NWS and it was soon thereafter mentioned on air by Carl Parker in TWC.

    I received 32.5″ by the time all was said and done. That band had frequent thunder and lightning within it and even produce hail mixed in with the heavy snow in southern CT.

    Fascinating writeup on that storm, the “death band” and dual pol radar here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00258.1

    This was such a fun storm all around. I remember seeing that first Euro run showing the “big one” 4 days in advance of the storm followed by the NAM putting out those ridiculous 40-60″ snow amounts. So much anticipation and it actually exceeded my expectations. Won’t experience something like that again for a long time, if ever.

    1. BTW, for the duration of snow on that GFS run before the changeover, it would basically have to be ripping snow at 2″ per hour for Boston to get to 10″. Not happening!

      1. Would like to see tonight’s Euro on this.
        Beginning to look like a decent front end thump of snow in any case.

        1. Assuming you trust models that have proven themselves to be absolute crap forecasting snow this far in advance, over and over again. ๐Ÿ™‚

  45. Biggest snowstorm in my life 6 years ago today last into the 9th. 30 inches of snow accumulated where I was and I remember the snow bank left by the plow at the end of the driveway at my mom and stepdad’s was 8 feet tall. Hamden CT the bigger winner with 40 inches of snow. Snowing at close to half a foot an hour for a short period in places along with thundersnow small hail and gusty winds. When I drove around two days after the storm I saw people snow blowing there street just so they could get out. I have never seen that in my life until then. The local paper where I live had the headline One Quick Avalanche of Snow.

    1. I also remember it well. My son in law had to climb out the window. The doors were all snowed closed. Great memories

      1. I remember looking at the 12z NAM that morning showing 30 plus inches of snow in parts of CT and saying no way. Well it did happen. Bridgeport CT where the shoreline records are kept had the biggest snowstorm on record with 30 inches. At BDL it was second with 22.3 inches. The biggest snowstorm was 24 inches back on January 11-12 of 2011 and what a six week stretch that was for the winter of 10-11.

  47. I like the idea of more primary low, less secondary, less cold, shorter snow, more rain, and a faster timing for the first of 2 threats next week.

  48. Longshot…it is windy here now too. Very fitting as I will be outside in a bit talking to the stars…not literally but in my thoughts.

  49. I would really like the temperature fluctuations to stop, I want it to stay cold say 20s and 30s through mid March at least. The temps are driving my allergies through the roof and there is nothing freaking living out there right now. I would also love it so that ski areas are not frozen granular or spring conditions.

    1. I’m with you on this, Matt. We can’t control it, but the oscillations have been a theme this winter. While New England is notoriously fickle and variable this winter’s been a constant yo-yo. I can’t recall a week this winter during which there wasn’t variation in daytime highs of at least 20 degrees. Maybe a week to 10 day stretch in early December, but that’s really about. The rest of the time it’s been a wild seesaw.

      1. I meant to say that perhaps there was a week to 10 day stretch in early December during which there wasn’t much variability in temperature.

        1. We had a fairly decent stretch like that, yes.

          However, those are the exception, rather than the rule. We much more often see bigger swings in winter here than persistence. Patterns like February 2015 and December 1989, for cold, and perhaps 2001 and 2012 for warm, are not nearly as frequently-observed as patterns with much bigger swings.

          1. Y2k I know there are swings but unusually we stay in the 30s or lower in Feb with occasional 40s but is generally are snowiest month and considered by most in New England the best month for skiing. The consultant up and down temperatures and the snow to ice to rain events create for frozen grandpa or slop

  50. I know some are saying don’t expected a good snowfall for mid week, but I honestly feel very good about it at least for my area, not necessarily Boston but I am not that concern about that.

    2. I have to be concerned for all areas (not just mine) in regards to my blog update. ๐Ÿ™‚ Models are likely erring in the same direction they have several times. The indices are really not lined up that well either, as has been the case most of the winter.

      Need something to hold the cold air in – don’t have it.

  51. This doesn’t really surprise me, but the GFS, that has actually done the best job at forecasting MJO recently, has picked up on the fact that MJO is not progressing more strongly through phase 7 but sitting weaker still in phase 6, and now concentrates on a slightly weaker phase 7 versus a stronger phase 8 going forward. Pattern persistence. This was a staple of the atmosphere in the 1980s. While it was discovered in the early 1970s, we still didn’t really know much about MJO’s influence on global patterns quite yet in the 80s. I’d love to be able to go back and plot out the MJO trends for all those winters in the 70s and 80s.

  52. 148 MPH wind gust atop Mount Washington this morning is the strongest observed in over 10 years but a far cry from their record. Still a very windy morning on the top of New England!

  53. Good morning. Latest models are DEPRESSING.

    Did someone predict this? Looks like a much stronger primary low and we all
    know what that means.

    Let’s just move into Spring.

    Logan may just break the record yet, but of course it won’t take much
    for it not to happen.

    2. Like I said before – this winter is the same song on repeat. Something in the models, watch it go away… if it stays you get a mixer at best. A lot of people donโ€™t like that tune but you need to move to a different state to change the radio station.

    3. I’m not “giving up” on anything. I’m forecasting what I think is going to happen, not what I want to happen. ๐Ÿ™‚

  57. JP Dave, I’m embarrassed to admit that I don’t know that a stronger primary low means…Would someone give me a quick explanation?

    1. Cold air doesn’t hold as long. Warms up aloft, and eventually at the surface. We don’t stay snow, and go over to a mix then rain.

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