Sunday Forecast

125 Comments

2:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last, but so far Seattle Washington has about 3 times the amount of snow this season than Boston (Logan Airport) has. That weather system is crossing the country and will bring some wintry weather to our area during Tuesday. Before it gets here, we have a dry and seasonably cold day today under high pressure, much more tranquil than the ferocious wind gusts of yesterday. And then a weak disturbance which will be in the process of falling apart as it pushes into dry air will manage to bring some cloudiness to the region tonight and Monday but will have lost its ability to produce any snowfall, even though it will be cold enough. The system that will be carrying plenty of moisture will arrive Tuesday from southwest to northeast during the course of the day, starting with enough cold air to produce snow at the onset, but with a primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a secondary low remaining on the weak side until after it goes by our area, we’ll see enough warming aloft to end the production of snowflakes and turn them to raindrops. How those drops reach the surface will then be determined by the amount of cold air left at the ground and its thickness. The feeling at this point is that we’ll see the snow transition to sleet during Tuesday evening then rain during the night into early Wednesday, at which time we’ll have to keep an eye on surface temperatures, especially interior areas, for icing. But even in those locations it should warm enough so that the system ends as rain showers everywhere during the day Wednesday, followed by a drying trend as the system begins to pull away. Some colder air will wrap in behind it, not in time to change the rain showers back to snow showers, but waiting until the moisture has departed. What this will do, as high pressure moves in, is bring dry and seasonably chilly weather for Thursday – Valentine’s Day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast during the day, changing to sleet/ice/rain south to north during the evening. Early idea of snow accumulation before changeover is under 1 inch south of I-90 and up to a few inches to the north with the greatest chance for several inches being in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 occurring late-day or evening. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely. Partly sunny and windy thereafter. Temperatures rise to 40s then fall to 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Next storm threat late February 15 into February 16 looks like a Great Lakes Cutter low pressure system with milder air and a rain threat. Windy, colder late February 16 into February 17 with a risk of snow showers. Breezy but cold and dry February 18. Next system looks like a weak one passing south of the region with a light snow area missing the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
The best snow threat of the winter may occur around the middle of this period, but there are several things in the atmosphere that need to line up just so, and this will be something I’ll be following closely, otherwise we’ll see a system that either tracks through the Great Lakes and brings mix/rain, or a system that passes south of the region with cold/dry air dominant. There is nothing really that odd about this particular weather pattern resulting in a lack of snow in southern New England. It’s just not something we see all that often, especially recently. We happen to sit in the geographical location for missing significant snowfall events so far this cold season, with 2 regional exceptions. We’ll see if the third will take place in this time period.

125 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. It appears the consensus is for a general 3-6 inches for SNE including Boston. Also, Barry has 57F for next Saturday!

    Boston needs 6.7” for a tie for the least snowiest (9.0”= 1936-37). Hopefully this next event can at least put a good dent into this deficit (2.3” to date). I can accept a tie for this winter season, but NOT a record.

    Expect WSWatches starting tomorrow AM?
    Little or no snow left on the ground by Wednesday PM? Barry has 46F for a high temp.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looking at the latest model runs, I see a general consensus for something
    in the 4-6 inch range with the notable exception of the NAM which keeps it to 1-2 inches or so.

    Some snow maps for your viewing pleasure:

    Here is the EURO, UKMET and ACCESS-G (euro shows 5.3 inches for Boston)

    https://imgur.com/a/CmqHgEj

    GFS

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019021000/096/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    CMC

    https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021000/096/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    GFS-FV3

    https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2019021006/090/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    And finally, the lone wolf NAM

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019021006/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  5. Seattle has been on a roll this year. Warmest start of January on record….with the record going back to 1890

    And record breaking coldest first few days of February

    Snow history for Seattle for anyone curious. I’m living vicariously with comments and photos of family and friends in Seattle or nearby areas

    http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow-stats/

    1. Thanks for those stats Vicki. Amazing that 10.6” to date. Hard to believe that Logan may not make double digits. A very bizarre pattern we are in as a nation for sure.

  9. According to Barry, the snow arrival has been delayed by a couple hours. I wonder if that will make a big difference in snow totals.

    It actually might help those like myself who have early afternoon commutes vs. later. Based on Barry’s futurecast map, the snow would be just starting as I am leaving work at 3:00 PM.

      1. Yep – that’s why I like it better but I have no problem with thump….seems there are times people see a forecast and need a thump to actually read it.

        Just sayin’

        1. HAHA!
          I used to not mind it, and then it started becoming like fingernails on a chalkboard while chewing on aluminum foil and licking a 9-volt battery to me. 😉 I have no idea why. But I’m not gonna lie. The term drives me crazy. But in fairness to those who like it, it’s fully allowed to be used here on WHW. 😉

  12. Seattle’s winter kind of reminds me (although in reverse) of the extremes Boston saw in the 1989-1990 winter. Coldest December on record immediately followed by the warmest January on record. 😉

    2. I still say this pattern is totally INSANE. Even during lean snowfall years, we would have already had most of whatever snowfall we were going to get by now. Hopefully the 2.3 inches isn’t close to our final amount.

  13. So as has been the case many times this winter the “early consensus”, in my opinion, is too high. Again too much biting on model #’s and not enough applied meteorology. Maybe I’ll get screwed on this one, but I think that warm air aloft is going to have no trouble whatsoever taking us to sleet after a few hours of snow. Even with the scale-back of the secondary strength, it still may not be enough correction by the models.

    1. Eric “Just like mid-January, you have aggressive warming aloft around 700mb that will shut down the snow after a few hours…then ice and rain.”

      I’d say he is in your camp.

    1. I would say just barely plowable for Boston. I know you can use the work, but don’t expect a bonanza of snow removal. You know how quick warm air can reach the city.

      1. Philip where I work I don’t need a bonanza of snow 2 inches would keep me all night . We don’t just plow we salt , shovel etc to keep everything accessible & provide as minimal impact as we can 24/7

  15. Thank you TK.

    After I reviewed the models and posted the maps, I kept seeing what you posted:
    Early idea of snow accumulation before changeover is under 1 inch south of I-90 and up to a few inches to the north

    And I was thinking….hmmm What is TK thinking and the only thing I could come up with was that you thought that the warming aloft would come in much faster
    than these models are indicating.

    So I’d say you were more in Camp 3KM NAM. No? 😀 😀 😀

        1. Well one thing we won’t be getting (in snow) from this, is a dumping. 😛

          NWS maps should be somewhere between low end & expected. High end is not happening.

          1. But a decent 2-4 inches Tk shouldn’t be ruled out for the city . As is the case northern areas making out yet again .

  23. Early snow and sleet accumulation guesses
    0-2 south shore, cape and Islands
    2-4 Along and east of I95 (southern CT, RI SE Mass (north shore) with localized areas up to 6
    4-8 west of I95 with localized areas of up to 10 inches across North Central and Northwest Ma
    10+ in vermont, central and northern NH and Maine ( could see up to two feet in parts of interior Maine.
    Not a big snow producer but its a moderate size one for at least my area. It will totally depend on how soon the change over happens Tuesday evening.

  24. “Wall of snow” is a great one. Reminds me of February 1983. Not a particularly awesome winter, but that was surely an awesome storm. From nothing to very heavy snow in minutes. My friend and I called that the “high-splitter” storm when there was a blocking high that seemed like it was strong enough to force it east and graze us here, and it just came right up against all model forecasts. I think I had about 13 inches out of that, most of it in about 6 hours.

  25. SSK..
    I won’t rule 2-4 out completely for the city but I don’t quite think they’re going to get there.

      1. If I had to throw a number at it I say somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 at Logan and 1-2 elsewhere in the city.

  26. Thanks TK.

    Quite the explosive secondary redevelopment off the Delmarva for the late week system showing up on the GFS and FV3. I wonder if this solution has any merit? Still a rain fest for us either way, but could turn into a second half wind storm for us and snowstorm for upstate NY and NNE if this storm were to bomb out over us as depicted.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021012&fh=150

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021006&fh=156

    1. Cut it by 1/3 to a 1/2 and perhaps more reasonable? Thinking the period of sleet and frz rain is going to be about twice as long as the up front snow

  28. Similar to what we had in CT back on 1/20. About two inches of snow and freezing rain and sleet. Hopefully more sleet than freezing rain this time.

  30. After reminiscing about the blizzard 6 years ago this weekend that dropped 33″ of snow here, I dug up a few pictures I thought I would share.

    This was what it looked like when I opened the front door. Notice the tip of the yard stick poking out the snow at the top:

    https://imgur.com/a/7eSxw84

    Trying to cut a path out from the garage door with my son (notice it is still snowing like hell!):

    https://imgur.com/a/GizDIEn

    Front driveway the next day after I was able to get half of it dug out:

    https://imgur.com/a/fPulkin

    And my daughter standing on the front walk the next day after finally being about to cut a narrow path through the 3-4 foot snow drift in front of the house :

    https://imgur.com/a/gnefIQZ

      1. The op and pretty much every ensemble get it to Phase 8 and fast. The GFS is less bullish, but the Euro has been very consistent with this forecast.

    1. Because NWS decided to increase their snowfall forecast on the 3PM update. Not really sure why, but that’s ok.

  38. The problem with the Euro’s MJO forecast: It’s not been good at all. GFS has been slightly better, but far from good.

    I’m going to lean toward more 7 and weaker 8, then a cycle back through neutral, re-emergence in 6, then a cycle through 7 through 2 finally by late Feb or early March, right before a change to a springtime pattern. Out on a limb, yes. But I just went there.

      1. HAHA nothing like putting words in my mouth. Hey one never knows, but I wouldn’t bet on a biggie.

  39. Well I just checked to see why NWS went a bit higher on snowfall #’s and in their discussion they basically said they are just using model snowfall data and are awaiting more model snowfall data before making any changes. I thought for a minute that K.L. wrote that discussion, but he works on TV. 😉

  41. For Boston, my range would be 2-4″ before the changeover. Not an easy forecast, and it’s a true “kitchen sink” storm. NWS Boston looks a little high to me, but precip intensity should ramp up pretty quickly on the leading edge. It’s weird to see the GFS showing the highest snow totals. That hardly ever happens.

    QPF with this event is high. We take it for granted after the way the past several months have gone, but 1-2″ QPF with a winter storm is nothing to sneeze at. Even after the change to sleet/ice, impacts will continue, and all in all it will be a significant winter storm for many areas especially inland.

    1. No. It only goes through 54 hours but it starts to form it around the eastern slopes of the mountains in VA. Keeps a much stronger primary low, which fits the situation better.

  46. Secondary redevelopment, bombogensis, and back side blizzard for the Cape and Nantucket this weekend in the 18z FV3. After rain, thunderstorms and 50s. Love it.

    1. Interesting. Hoping nothing develops between Sunday through Tuesday next week up near beverly ma. I have a lot of outdoor activities planned.

          2. Because it’s on the fv3….

            Actually it’s the overall pattern. Very unlikely that anything like that happens.

  47. The next storm looks to me like a NNE snow maker (hey, what else is new this winter?), with an inch or two at the coast (which will be gone by Wednesday morning) and perhaps up to 4 inches west of the city. I really can’t stand kitchen sink storms. And my wall will surely be leaking with all the qpf that is being forecast for this upcoming storm and the one later this week. The two storms together could produce well over 2 inches qpf (maybe even 3 or 4 inches qpf). Pretty astounding how consistently wet Boston’s been for a very long time, changes in pattern notwithstanding. The storm at the end of the week will also produce snow in far NNE but all rain closer to home. Of course with the cold finally in place early next week what will happen … suppression.

    While it was beautiful this weekend, I ain’t too thrilled with what’s in store. So, an appropriate track would be Stevie Ray Vaughn’s Couldn’t Stand the Weather (the whole album is an absolute gem, by the way):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xprs_uJbGgI

  48. A couple days ago I said we could see a coastal storm around 2/16 with the SE Ridge briefly relaxing and a progressive trough passing through the Midwest. That prediction looked anywhere from doubtful to downright insane Friday and Saturday with the barrage of cutters on the models. It looks quite a bit better in the face of guidance today…. but that’s still a very low confidence forecast, and will remain so until the Tuesday event comes into better focus. It looks like a primary low heading into the lakes… again… but something about the upper air pattern is a little different on that one, relating to the relaxing of the SE Ridge, so that it’s at least meteorologically possible that we could get more of a coastal redevelopment with that one. But a straight up cutter is on the table as well. Just too early to say.

    1. It will be interesting to see how that one goes.

      I feel like the slower the evolution of that the better chance of has of doing something on the coast that’s a little colder. Right now I lean quicker and milder.

  49. Sorry didn’t mean to alarm anyone regarding that post on the FV3 run. Was merely commenting on the comedy of it. Some year maybe we will actually have an “FV3 Winter”. We’d break all kinds of records!

  50. Tropical tidbits users…
    Positive snow depth change on the NAM will be more accurate than the snowfall map.

  51. RGEM snow map & positive snow depth change map from the 3km NAM more closely fit my idea of how this plays out.

      1. This is the 3km NAM positive snow depth change map through the entire storm… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021100&fh=60

        This is the RGEM snowfall map out through 48 hours but by then most of it has fallen, except there may be a bit more than what is shown here in far northern MA northward… https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021100&fh=48

  53. I just have a feeling this system could over perform in the snow accumulation department. At least for areas north of the Mass pike and away from the coast.

    1. This is about warm air aloft. If you can find a way to slow that down, it may be possible. 🙂 But with a high to the north that’s NOT locked in – moving away to the east, and a secondary low that forms 150 miles inland and tracks over SNE, it’s going to be a long shot.

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