Monday Forecast

191 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The week starts of quiet and chilly as a disturbance passes south of the region and high pressure builds to the north. But this quickly changes as a broad storm system arrives Tuesday and departs Wednesday, but what about the details between arrival and departure? You didn’t think I was going to leave those out, did you? I continue to feel confident about a dominant primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a slowly-developing secondary low over the inland Mid Atlantic that then tracks up over southern New England. It will be cold enough for this system to start as snow throughout the region, but the set-up allows rapid warming aloft from south to north, and a slower warming at the surface from southeast to northwest. What this translates into is the snow, which should be underway by early afternoon in southern and western portions of the forecast area and northeastern areas by mid afternoon, will then transition to sleet from south to north during the early evening, then from sleet to rain from southeast to northwest during mid to late evening. Exceptions will be the higher elevations of southwestern NH which may never completely change, and also the hills of Worcester County MA which may see some icing during the rain as surface temperatures may remain below freezing there. By Wednesday morning as the secondary low is passing overhead, all areas should be above freezing with lingering drizzle, fog, and rain showers. This is when the temperatures should be at their mildest, and will hold steady then eventually fall during the day as the low moves away and an increasing westerly wind moves in, transporting drier and colder air into the region. This will set up a dry and seasonably cold Valentines Day for Thursday. But things are on the move and by Friday the next system will be approaching. There are some questions as to how this system will play out, but my feeling at this time is that it is going to be a system that heads toward the Great Lakes late Friday, allowing milder air in and resulting in a rain risk by later Friday. Will keep an eye on the evolution of this threat during the week ahead and watch for any changes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow changing to sleet from south to north early then to rain from southeast to northwest later, but remaining as mainly snow southwestern NH and possibly some freezing rain north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover from a coating to 2 inches South Coast up to a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, 2-4 inches elsewhere except 4-6 inches higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH and 6-8 inches southwestern NH. Temperatures steady 28-35 early, then rising to 30-35 north and west and 36-41 south and east. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then becoming partly cloudy and drying out. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable early then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers by late-day. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A storm system will impact the region at the beginning of the Presidents Day Weekend, currently leaning toward a milder rain scenario. This will be followed by 2 blustery, colder, dry days February 17-18. The next system would threaten around February 19 into February 20 but not sure if this gets in here or passes to the south of the region. A couple factors need to be watched to determine hit/miss and if hit snow/rain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Trend at the moment is dry and seasonably chilly but no guarantee with how things have looked in medium range versus turned out in reality.

191 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    6Z NAMs NOT very bullish on snow with a fairly quick change to sleet.
    Waiting on 12Z runs

      1. Well, this is massachusetts so it’s legal for them to all be high. lol! But I think if you just look at the low ends for each station it seems a bit better. People focus on the high ends.

        1. Dr your highness, sir…..I needed a good laugh this morning. Awesome first sentence.

          JPD – did you mean the low numbers might be too high also?

        2. No, I was looking at the big picture.

          Btw, I DETEST ranges. Here’s what I would like to see.
          A color coded range is OK, BUT with added predicted totals for many selected locations within those ranges. Much like what the NWS does, but only with MORE……

          1. I had not thought of color vs numbers. I like the number ranges. It makes it easier for me visually to compare the lines I’m closer to. Colors take my eye from the map.

    1. Thanks for the thoughts. Still very ill. Every time she starts to feel better, she
      feels worse again. There was some improvement yesterday, not we’ll see
      if it is sustained to today.

  18. I don’t think its the exact snow amounts that are the story on this system.

    Its the timing on the snow and if that fouls up the evening commute. That to me is the story.

        1. They have rescheduled in the past. They said as of now they are not rescheduling as it is supposed to transition to rain. I don’t think they realize that the timing of the snow is exactly when everyone will be traveling there.

          2. Sue, I think the danger is that people seem to see transition and somehow miss that the front portion is snow that will not magically disappear as soon as the transition occurs. It’s why I like the term thump….but perhaps I am thinking more on the head than in the forecast 😉

    4. You’re completely correct but once again many people are focusing on the exact snow amounts as they always do.

      1. Every time I see Topkatt, I start to sing the song….and it will be in my head all day. Nice that it is a fun song!

        1. Yeah the admin account got logged out. All I had to do was relog in but I decided to comment first. 😉

  20. Thank you, TK.

    More snow in the Seattle area today. It’ll take a major comeback for Boston to overtake Seattle this year in the snow department. Boston’s down `28-3′ fairly late in the game. And tomorrow’s `field goal’ won’t do much. We need several `touchdowns and 2-point conversions.’ Do the models forecast that happening? No. Will Boston break the record for least amount of snow for the season? That’s still to be determined, but its probability is increasing by the day.

    1. We’ll need a Brady Like finish to the season like in
      Super Bowl 2017: Tom Brady leads Patriots to historic comeback win
      Pats rally from 28-3 deficit in third quarter to beat Atlanta Falcons

  29. Tk. What are your thoughts on southern Worcester county hills for sleet vs freezing rain? I’m thinking a lot of warmer air aloft but tougher cold just at the surface = more freezing rain?

    1. Too much snow just like the GFS. They must be tainted by sleet/frz rain. Neither model keeps the period of snow long enough to accrue those totals. It would have to be a true “wall” of snow where we were “thumping” 1-2″/hour for 4 hours to reach those totals 🙂

    2. Models now tend to be favoring a much weaker system passing to our west Friday with a stronger system tracking to the south of us on its heels and redeveloping along the east coast.

      -GFS/CMC would be a rain to mix/snow situation Friday into the weekend.
      -ICON delays it to later in the weekend and keeps it all snow.
      -The Euro is basically just a frontal passage with rain showers Friday and then keeps the weekend dry.

      How the heck do you make a forecast off of that?

    3. Mark what is 12z EURO shows. I see the 12z GFS has rain ending as a bit of wintry precipitation on Sunday

  33. The Tuesday/Wednesday system next week is looking interesting as well.

    GFS and Euro have an all snow event and keep the storm south and east of us. Euro delivers widespread 10-14″. We are more on the northern fringe of the snow shield with the GFS.

    CMC is further NW and would be a rain to snow event.

    There’s another east coast storm threat later in the week on the GFS.

    Definitely a more wintry look on the models today FWIW.

  34. All I ask for one storm with just snow instead of this sloporama.
    I am thinking most of inland CT gets 2-3 inches of snow followed by sleet. It would have to snow an inch an hour for four hours for the 12z EURO and GFS to verify .

    1. It’s not that simple. It’s not going to come in and snow 1 inch per hour for exactly 4 hours.

  37. The disparity in the short term MJO forecasts (am I’m talking only 3-5 days out) between the GFS and Euro is pretty striking:

    Euro:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    GFS:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

    Euro has basically 100% of its ensembles going straight into Phase 8 and staying there. GFS brings it briefly into 8 and then loops it back around through 7 for awhile before eventually heading back towards 8. It’s ensembles are in decent agreement as well, though not to the extent of the Euro.

    Should a Phase 8 MJO verify next week, does it increase our odds of wintry weather? Personally I think next week offers the best hope we have had perhaps this winter for a moderate to significant all snow event for most places. It’s not a slam dunk but a better setup than we have had. If we miss out, probably more likely via suppression than a cutter.

  38. 18z HRRR 32 hour snowfall forecast: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021118&fh=32

    18z HRRR 32 hour positive snow depth change forecast: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=32

    Even here you will note a little difference in accumulations to the south due to the sleet factor. Overall, this is pretty close to fitting my idea of what will fall through early evening tomorrow, when the vast majority of the accumulation of snow will be done.

  39. Crazy storm out in the Pacific that has been affecting Hawaii!

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/11/historic-storm-hurls-huge-waves-mph-winds-hawaii-rare-snow-hits-maui/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c6c5b17d72be

    191 mph wind gust on Mauna Kea in the Big Island makes the Mt Washington 148 mph wind gust from this past weekend look like child’s play.

    It even snowed on the island of Maui which is extremely rare. Snow elevation got all the way down to 6000 feet.

    How would you like to be vacationing on Maui and see this!?
    https://twitter.com/reelnewshawaii/status/1094760641158471681

  40. MIchae ventrice on twitter “ECMWF goes “poof” with what was once Saturday’s predicted washout. Brings in High Pressure and colder temperatures instead. Big change.”

  42. WOW Thanks mark!! Interesting weather in Hawaii for sure. I must have been under a rock because it’s the first I’ve heard of it. Went there on my honeymoon. Beautiful place especially the rainbow trees with the bark that changes color.

      1. Some of the initializations and forecasts in the mountains of the West result in some insane looking plots too, especially of high pressure centers. Always amusing to look at. 🙂

  49. It is the storm threat around the early to middle part of next week that interests me most for a wider snow potential in SNE. Still need “help” from the atmosphere for it to take place that way though. We may get MJO to weak to moderate phase 8 right around that time.

  50. I think for tomorrow’s storm. Merrimack valley will be the jackpot. Northeastern mass will be last to change over to sleet as some models indicate.

  51. Just saw the first early release announcement for one of the school districts on the south shore. I am sure more will follow.

    1. A few in central MA has announced that too. Good idea. Get the buses done and off the roads early. Minimize traffic. Leave road crews space and time to treat. This has nothing to do with the “final accumulation” and everything to do with timing.

    2. We always root for Brockton now as I think his school goes by that . I am suspecting cancellations of events tomorrow night but will get in full day as they get out at 2. Probably no problems Wednesday

  52. Had about 1.5″ of snow last night and this morning here in south-central NJ. That was the leading suppressed wave. The forecast for the incoming storm remains a real challenge. If you’re off by a couple of hours in timing the transitions from snow to ice to rain, you can double your snow totals or cut them in half.

    I think the main risk in the forecast for SNE, in relation to most of the forecasts I’ve seen, is for a faster change to sleet/freezing rain which would reduce snow totals. Warm air aloft often moves in very quickly with these events. But for Boston, I’ll keep my 2-4″ range unchanged.

          1. Indeed but are you thinking low range . Harvey is thinking we could ( key word could ) get up to 1 inch an hour when it gets cranking

      3. His forecast says exactly what his map and most of the other maps except 7 say

        His said and this is a quote …”Along the coast, the Boston area will see about 2 to 4 inches. Just inland, totals will be in the 4 to 6 inch range.”

        It doesn’t say parts of Boston but just inland.

        1. He did earlier Vicki said parts of Boston like Newton and Cambridge etc could see the 4-6 closer to the water I think he said 2-4.,it was on the 5:30 news

              1. I may be the only one who cares. Mets have a bad enough rep with an accurate quote, so it seems that if something is attributed to a specific met (or anyone for that matter) it should be accurate.

                Just sayin’

    2. I’m not sure why anybody would even entertain that as a remote possibility less than 10 days after the meteorological mid point of the cold season. 😉

            1. Ch 25? I only listen to the three major networks. That’s why I was wondering who he is.

              Oh and mostly here of course. 🙂

  56. Mark, thank you for sharing the Hawaii news. When Maui gets more snow than Boston – albeit in the upper elevations – then we’re kind of in silly territory. Phoenix, Arizona is next. Then San Francisco. Watch, it’ll happen this year, the 2019 San Francisco blizzard.

    Caveat is that the models do appear to be more favorable to snow in Boston and coastal areas next week. But, that’s a fairly long-range forecast.

  57. Schools starting to release early tomorrow. Will be curious to see what Sutton does. It had its second ice related bus trouble ……no one hurt in either…..one last year and one this year.

    1. Ch 7’s map is closest to what I expect. Unrelated to this event, but they were the most correct on the last event, regionwide.

      1. That is the one I focused on also and do recall last time they were closest. Although others were not far off

        1. No, nobody was too far off. They were just best overall. I thought the last event was pretty well-forecast in general.

      2. I have said for the past many years of doing these collages – channel 7 is usually correct most times and are the most reserved.

  59. LOL looking at the 18z models. So much for our warm and wet weekend!

    The GFS and ICON now look similar to the Euro with a weak frontal passage/scattered showers on Friday and then a cool and dry weekend.

    I suggest an indefinite ban on running all models past 72 hours until they stop sucking!!

      1. Yes you did. Referring mainly to the models from 12+ hours ago which had a warm and very wet Friday-Saturday.

    1. Well given that up until now it’s pretty much sucked I would say the odds are even to slightly in their favor that it’s better in the next 30 days. 😉

    2. I saw that round-table discussion. Just as you said they gave that time frame the best chance, but I’m not very sure they were bullish about it either.

  61. Looking at some of the short range models for tomorrow….

    RGEM and HRRR are colder and have it snowing 6+ hours with 3-4″ accumulating in most areas, followed by equal duration or longer of sleet/frz rain in most areas away from the coast.

    3k NAM is warmer – has it snowing only 3-4 hours with a similar extended period of sleet/frz rain inland. Most areas around 2″ with up to 3″ in Worcester Co.

    I think the vast majority of the people on this blog end up somewhere in the 2-4″ range.

      1. If FV3 verified every forecast this winter we’d probably have about 500 inches of snow by now. 😛

    1. Yeah just noticed that. 3k NAM did a better job delineating sleet snow and the the radar simulation on 12k runs amok to it snow map. (Did I ever say I hate model snow maps)

      Some talk here about GFS (not the FV3 which I never look at) and its snowfall amounts. It did the same thing last similar system. Did a better job than ECMWF in the mid range in recognizing the broad features at work and when it got close it lost its ability to identify precip types in marginal temps and went high with snow because of its lower resolution.

        1. It’s likely warming the mid levels of the atmosphere too quickly. This is resulting in an extended period of sleet, and significant sleet accumulation after a brief period of snow up front.

    3. Ryan Hanrahan going 70/30 with the NAM/other short range guidance. Feels as much as an inch of sleet on top of whatever snow falls.

  66. https://imgur.com/a/SzqQlVP Everyone thats a snow lover I believe it is my fault that this winter its been hard to get snow here in SNE. Last time I got new stuff was 2012 when we did not get much snow, also did not get much snow when I was in 6 grade either when I got my first skiis. I had a feeling lol.

    1. Nice, I have a similar, older model of those Atomic Vantage skis. They are working well for me. I think we had a conversation about this at one point.

      In any event, put those to good use! Unlike 2012, there actually is loads of snow up north and they will be adding to it in the coming weeks I’m sure.

      1. Oh I have gone out 4 times so far but within the next 3 weeks I have trips planned every weekend, using the Bus trip out of boston ski and sports. I also have a ski weekend planned, I am hopeful for good snow.

  67. Nws just updated their status on fb saying that snowfall amounts might be more than expected as new guidance showing snow will last longer. What guidance are they looking at?

    3. “[10 pm] new forecast guidance is coming in & is holding onto the cold air a few hours longer Tuesday. Thus higher #snow totals are possible but no changes to the forecast just yet, as we need to review all guidance overnight.” Via twitter

    1. This is the 36 hour version. We’ll see with some of tomorrow morning’s runs
      whether or not it stays even this bullish.

  75. 00z GFS following suit with the FV3 and now showing multiple snow threats in the long range. Monday and Wednesday of next week and then again around the 27th.

    1. 6-12″ on the summit with 4′ drifts. Snow was reported as low in elevation as 6200 feet, breaking the previous record from the 1950’s for the lowest elevation ever that snow was recorded in Hawaii.

  77. With the direction the cold high pressure dome is retreating, I wouldn’t be surprised if extreme eastern mass and northeastern mass hold onto snow the longest. I don’t think, initially, this is the classic SE to NW changeover progression.

    2. Southwest to northeast change from snow to sleet with warming aloft, southeast to northwest change from sleet to rain with surface warming.

      1. I’m sorry Tk you can’t go by Logan but I think places like my work , Brookline, Dorchester, JP, west Roxbury etc will come in on the higher ends 5 or six inches . Of course Logan will record 2” lol .

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