Tuesday Forecast

276 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
It’s *gasp* “storm arrival day”! Ok this type of phrase may be more appropriate for the arrival of a biggie, like one of the 2015 storms, or like the Blizzard of 2013. But the way this winter’s going, some of us are thinking it for snow flurries. Well, not just flurries today, there is snow on the way, but not a biggie, and not a system that’s going to stay snow everywhere, probably even the hills of southwestern NH where I thought yesterday it may be possible. Too much warm air aloft, the wild card in snowfall amounts as well. Still going to go with a quicker timing on its arrival and a changing of the snow to sleet, before rain (and pockets of icing interior mainly northwest) work in. Largely, the forecast for this system hasn’t changed, so you won’t see much change below in the details. Nor has the outlook beyond it for now, though some of the uncertainties of beyond a few days remain and I will attempt to iron those out as we go along. So we have the messy storm today / tonight, no flash freeze in fact kind of mild tomorrow, a seasonable chill for Valentine’s Day, and if there is any adjustment to be made to the late week system it’s to possibly shorten its duration a little bit. What yesterday looked like a mild and wet Saturday (at the start of my DAYS 6-10 section) looks like it may be fairly dry and slightly milder than normal, as the Friday system wants to be parented by one low going across southern Canada and additional development may be limited and stay well to the south after the front passes. Will keep watching this as it already changed several times on guidance in the last few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow changing to sleet from south to north early then to rain from southeast to northwest later but likely some freezing rain north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation before changeover from a coating to 2 inches South Coast up to a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, 2-4 inches elsewhere except 4-6 inches higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH and some greater than 6-inch amounts possible higher elevations southwestern NH. Temperatures steady 28-35 early, then rising to 30-35 north and west and 36-41 south and east. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then becoming partly cloudy and drying out. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable early then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers by late-day. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy south and east. Partly sunny north and west. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Breezy cool and dry as additional storminess should stay to the south through February 18. Will have to watch the period from late February 19 to early February 21 for what may be one of the better shots at widespread snow of the season, although very early on this does not look like a powerful system, but something possibly to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Leaning seasonably chilly and dry for much of the period at this time.

276 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks Tk I’m guessing 5-6 inner neighborhoods of Boston . Just a guess I’m going with feel cold air hangs on . It’s cold out there today .

      1. Indeed Philip I’ve been saying this as I just have a strong feeling this is an overachiever . It was obviously cold yesterday but today I’m really noticing a difference & working outside I should know

  2. This morning a WBZ radio announcer pointed out that today will be the first time this season that accumulating snow will be falling in Boston during the daytime.

    How do people come up with these stats? I never would have thought of that one.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Does anyone know what happened on WBZ radio with the weather forecasts? Its the news anchors that read the forecasts now.

    1. They may have just been having a communication issue because I heard the AccuWeather forecaster on there yesterday.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I used to like hearing Elliot Abrams give the forecasts. Does he still do so at WBZ? I realize he’s part of the Accuweather team and gives his forecasts from Pennsylvania.

    1. I used to like listening to Don Kent give the forecasts. Man, could he deliver a forecast, even if it wasn’t always correct. 😀

    2. I did, too. Now it’s Dean DeVore. I emailed BZ and AccuWeather about Elliot and never got a reply. Maybe Elliot is is semi-retirement. He used to give the forecasts in verse!

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    12Z HRRR has snow in Boston from about 1PM to the 7-8 PM hour.
    Let’s call it 6 hours of snow prior to sleet. It will NOT snow 1 inch per hour
    for 6 hours. More like 1/2 inch per hour average over that period.

    This 3 inches.

    Now let’s see the Kuchera snow from the 12Z HRRR

    Gee, what a surprise. 3 inches for Boston. This is complete for SNE

    https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019021212/019/snku_acc.us_ne.png

  14. Thanks TK! I have an aside from weather that I wanted to share since a lot of people here love football.

    I forgot to mention this during the past weekend: The AAF (Alliance of American Football) debuted this week. It was amazingly well done. If you even remotely like the NFL you will like the AAF. There are 8 teams currently and each team has an agreement with four NFL teams for first players rights. Patriots, Bills, Browns and Steelers have agreements with Birmingham Iron so they are who I root for. (They won their debut game.) It’s basically like a minor league for the NFL. A place for those who got waived with the NFL or players who want to skip college or people who just didn’t seem cut out for the NFL to try to prove themselves.

    There are so many unique twists that seem organic, too. On controversial calls you can listen in as the refs are working on the call. There is no kickoff – the ball starts at the 25 yard line. No extra points after a touchdown ONLY 2 point conversions.

    Did any of you watch it this past weekend? Birmingham vs Salt Lake is Saturday @ 2pm on TNT. They league has four matchups during the weekends – two on saturday two on sunday. Of all the matchups that happened this weekend this is the matchup I enjoyed the most https://youtu.be/ItSAvZAucIg – if watching two minutes of that doesn’t get you interested I don’t know what will.

    1. Unless there is a Boston or “New England” franchise then I probably won’t have much interest as much as I do like football.

      1. There very well may be by next year. Ratings were so good the first week they are discussing expanding into four more regions. But as I mentioned I am watching birmingham iron because any of the players could wind up being called to the patriots.

  15. Thank you,TK.
    Middleborough High is in early release mode! Out at 11:30. Streak still alive with no snow days!!!!
    Today is School Day #100 with our last day still at June 18!

    Pitchers and catchers arriving in Ft. Myers!! Official start tomorrow!

    Happy Birthday, Mom! 🙂

    1. Be glad you’re not in Worcester. I believe they canceled altogether today. Their schools will probably stay open well into July. 😀

      I do believe they have had quite a number of snow days so far this winter. It seems that every morning I watch the news Worcester either has another day off or a 2-hour delay.

  16. Thanks TK
    Waiting for the flakes to start flying here as all of the schools in CT closed today.
    Joshua I did watch the new football league this weekend. I thought it was watchable, a faster game than the NFL with a 35 second play clock instead of a 40 second play clock, few tv timeouts, and there was some hitting. The game Saturday drew a 2.9 million rating beating the NBA game which had a 2.5 million rating which to me is a good start for the new league. Will see if people come back to watch it this weekend. I know I will.

    1. I can’t wait for next weekend to see how ratings go. More people seem to be getting informed that it exists. Excited to root for birmingham. I already see a few players who could potentially shine on the patriots if they call them up. The league may expand by four more regions in 2020 if the ratings keep up. Wonder if the XFL will have any chance of competing when they debut next year.

  18. It just goes to show how this winter has been when the city of Boston could get crippled briefly by a 3-4 inch snow event. If later we get an 8-inch event, the National Guard may be needed like in 1978. 😉

  19. Happy to report that our employee meeting has been postponed until tomorrow. Yes, I know we are only getting a few inches but the timing would have been a challenge for hundreds of employees traveling from all over Massachusetts.

    2. That’s what they have been saying all along no surprise. Commute will be brutal later . I’ll bet anything this is an overachiever

        1. With this storm I just have a hunch & I think the colder air hangs on much longer meaning obviously more snow . Once this starts it’s going to come down hard & I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 1” per hour in some ( not all ) locations . I could be totally wrong & if so that’s ok . I just feel we get it longer .

  23. Dr. Stupid the XFL when it debuted was unwatchable that the ratings tanked the next week. Hopefully that league will learn from its mistakes the first time. The AAF was not unwatchable in my opinion and the players actually new what they were doing. Prior to the first game the teams have only been together for around a month.

    2. XFL has been taking their time with their relaunch. Zero wrestling elements. Straight football. Not going to be “extreme” and player safety will be in mind. Also 8 markets to begin like the AAF but unlike the AAF the players will have more time to get reps ahead of the league debut. I wonder how much wind is out of the sails for the XFL though with how well the AAF did in the first week. If they do modestly well, get tv contracts – I can see both leagues merging as soon as 2021 or 22 and if the AAF does indeed add four more market teams then you’d have a 20+ minor league spring football extravaganza. (The original XFL was run by the McMahon family and the ebersol family. The new XFL is run by the McMahon’s and the AAF is run by the ebersol’s. A merger is extremely possible. I think they wanted to test two leagues with different rules on gameplay to see what works the best before combining.)

  24. Thanks TK.

    Continuing to think 2-4 for Boston, but now leaning more to the high end where last night I would’ve thought low end. Can’t rule out a little more.

    Here in the mid-Atlantic, snow is generally underperforming, although the ice has been a major factor with a lot of traffic accidents occurring. The precip shield developed just a little too late for snow here. It’s really filled in now though and is taking aim at SNE. Surface temps in the low to mid 20s over eastern MA suggest that regardless of ptype, a significant winter storm is getting underway.

      2. It’s better with convective precip than stratiform precip.

        At the moment I would bet it’s over doing the snow a little.

  26. JPDave I am looking more at that ice accretion the HRRR is showing for my area. HRRR never brings the plain rain to my area. Showing in the 0.4 -0.5 range which is not good.

  28. A note on ice accumulation maps… and something that may surprise you. Like snow maps, model ice maps are often not reliable. Ice does not usually accumulate at a 1:1 ratio. It’s usually lower, especially when it comes to radial accumulation such as on trees/power lines. Sometimes on a flat surface it can reach 1:1 or a little higher. Heavier intensity freezing rain typically accumulates at a lower ratio than light freezing rain. I don’t know of any commonly available model maps that attempt to produce a dynamic ice ratio. They’re all 1:1, and so, in most cases, an overestimate. The paper below is a great resource.

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1

    1. 1 hr early release

      Its seemed like a regular day + 5 hrs though as I had before school extra help, a meeting during a C planning period and now a math meeting during part of lunch.

  31. Thanks TK.

    Just started snowing here in Manchester CT and the walkways are already covered white after about 5 minutes. The surfaces are COLD.

    Was only 19F when I left the house an hour ago. Cold air hanging tough, at least at the surface.

    1. To me it seemed like a dry air issue here. We basically got nothing last night during the period where it was cold enough aloft for snow. The precip shield developed right on top of us near daybreak, but that was later than expected. Maybe the secondary low developed later than expected and so didn’t start generating any lift of its own until it was too late? As we’ve expected the primary low will be dominant until it gets into northern New England at least, but the slow developing secondary is obviously playing a role also, and was probably too slow for us. But now that we’ve seen that precip shield fill in and the secondary get going, those errors have probably already stopped propagating, and now for SNE it comes back to the warm air aloft issue.

      But I’m definitely not sure that I’ve captured the full story or weighted the factors correctly. Here too we had the first wave of snow yesterday which never really cleared out entirely, and that probably ties in somewhere. That’s another reason it’s a tricky forecast up and down the coast, because there are different issues for different regions. But I like your forecast for SNE the way things stand now.

      1. Thank you!!

        I’m curious about the temps in and near the snow growth region for impact on accumulation of snow here ahead of the warming aloft.

  34. Coventry Schools closed today as were most across CT. Waste of a snow day…they definitely could have gotten a half day in this AM!

  36. I was surprised eastern half of CT called school today. I thought that part of the state would have early dismissals.

    1. The adjacent town of Andover let the kids out at 11AM. That to me was the right call and they saved a snow day.

      That said, the snow ramped up VERY quickly here and everything was almost instantaneously covered. Conditions are deteriorating pretty rapidly.

  37. Mark same thing here with the ramping up of the snow. To add insult to injury once the snow is over going to deal with that sleet and I think tomorrow were going to see widespread delayed opening in CT.
    Looking quickly at the 12z GFS two chances for some snow next week late Sunday into early Monday and Wednesday.

    1. The last few GFS runs are some of the best I have seen in a long time. Multiple snow threats and storm track to our south and east. It’s likely responding to some of those encouraging teleconnection forecasts I posted below.

  38. Not to jump the gun, but the teleconnection forecasts this AM are some of the best we’ve seen all winter if you are looking for cold/snow. AO tanking, NAO going negative and the PNA finally going positive. This coupled with the MJO heading into Phase 8.

    AO:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/158951696_ao.sprd2(4).gif.c720b5556c5ab492d3a0677d47b79a9c.gif

    NAO:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/1804695788_nao.sprd2(7).gif.3865cacd9179fb972bbbaf5e6affcddf.gif

    PNA:
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/664425637_pna.sprd2(4).gif.83672c3343302b83d33a024c74d97309.gif

    EPS and GEFS MJO:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

    Let’s hope this has some legs!

  39. Snow appears to be closing in on Sutton. I’m seeing ice pellets/sleet on RadarScope just southwest of Stamford and south of White Plains.

  40. Just drove home.
    There is definitely some snizzle/snow grains in the air in the City.
    perhaps just enough low level moisture with that wind off the water.
    Conditions not right for ocean effect, bur perhaps just enough for a little
    snizzle as it does not appear to be related to the main snow headed this way.

    2. “Unreal how soft we have become”

      Care to expound on this thought? I didn’t see the mayor speak so I don’t know in what aspect we have become soft.

      1. Is this your first time hearing someone say that “We have become soft” when dealing with winter weather conditions?

        I’m just wondering if you are interested in this topic?

        1. To answer your first question: it is not. But it varies for each thing. Some people say we have “become soft” for example when school gets cancelled because of cold weather when there is historical evidence it has always happened. So to answer your second question: yes I am because I always like finding historical counterpoints to the idea of softness in regards to weather as historical response has varied very little but guidance and foresight has improved which leads to better and more safer responses to impending storms. But I thank you for not answering my question and indeed positing multiple questions in response. lol

      2. FWIW, Dr., I did hear him.

        It’s the comments that made me shake my head….most questioning a press conference for 2-4 inches. No understanding that it may well be better than an inch per hour at rush hour. I’d also bet that the same folks who made that comment think it just stops after 2-4 and poof the roads are clear and the stars and moon are out.

          1. Coastal, it is all right for people to not agree with you. Rude and condescending responses….not so much.

            1. Vicki,
              You sound like a bully at the playground coming at me unprovoked like you have. Simply because I think the Mayor of a major city that holds a press conference about a ill-timed minor snow event is excessive. And now your play the victim with your “Rude and condescending responses” comment.

              Vicki, I don’t comment often but I have better things to do than to get caught up with your shit.

              1. Yep, that is me… a true bully, Coastal. I will ask you, however, please not to swear at me while you are calling me a bully.

    3. When it is during a rush hour, where there could be potential gridlock and kids having issues getting home on buses, etc. I think it is warranted in this situation as the snow is very heavy right now.

  48. Heavy snow is being reported at Albany, Pittsfield, and Westfield.

    Moderate snow at virtually every reporting station here in CT. I’m impressed by the temps which are holding steady in the upper teens inland and low 20’s on the shore. Going to take a long time to displace this cold at the surface.

    NYC as of noon has flipped to Frz Rain and 27F.

  50. If you look at the latest HRRR model run there is a good part of inland CT that stays sleet or freezing rain and never goes over to plain rain.

  51. Just thought I’d offer a perspective on how “weather” is communicated from a view that not everyone may get. I now as an employer regularly hear from employees who’ve seen a snowflake icon on their weather app – 10 days out – “I can’t work that day – we’re getting a snow storm.” Under the snowflake might be in tiny print “10%” meaning 10 percent chance of snow on that day -10 days out – highly likely to change and yet people expect to make set in Stone work plans based on their apps. For me a source of endless frustration in these winter months ….

    1. I don’t think it is how it is communicated as much as how it is perceived. Your example is proof of that. We truly need to stop blaming the messenger and start holding the public accountable.

    2. I guess I am fortunate as My wife and I are both school teachers, different districts, but the kids are in hers so snow days are not a problem. I could totally see the anxiety of trying to balance child care, work, etc… when delays and cancellations pop up late.
      But, the sensationalizing of the slightest weather systems is way over done by ALL TV mets. I literally get 90% of my weather here daily. ( but i don’t say much on the board) Even the Mayor going on TV for 2-4, is almost like “we have not had a huge storm to do it yet, might as well pick this one”

  52. Radar echoes seem to be on a more easterly trajectory. Is the secondary low developing further south than modeled?

  53. Grass is now white. Glad the kids (for the most part) were released and are home.

    Captain, I’m not sure if Sutton has had a snow day. I think it has been just early releases or delayed starts. As far as I know we are still on schedule for June 10.

  56. 2.5″ reported in Easton and Derby in SW CT. Both locations have now flipped to sleet. 2.5″ in Hamden CT as well.

    Thumping away here in Manchester now. Heaviest snow yet.

  58. I am out running errands. U have sat, the intensity is pretty good. went to 1 mile vis almost immediately and now 1/2 mile or less. It’s really coming down!

  59. Dual pol radar proving very useful for tracking the snow/sleet line. It’s making steady progress, but there’s decent intensity snow out ahead of it as you’re seeing now in much of SNE. All in all, forecast on track 🙂

    1. Pretty much have to agree here. My flakes are tiny here, which was one concern I had. It’s cold out, but no fluff factor. I’ve been snowing for an hour now and I have 0.1, maybe 0.2 on the ground.

  60. Son in law is headed from Wellesley to Sutton and is in Hopkinton on 135 and said traction is nasty. Cars are having trouble even with slight inclines. It is backed up from Weston nursery to the 495 interchange. OS, you’ll be familiar with how long that is. My guess is the hill after that will create all sorts of trouble.

        1. You’re thinking of the Friday system. That’s going through the Lakes and putting a cold front through here. This is a separate system staying south over the weekend.

        2. TK said it, two separate systems, although originally a lot of models were trying to combine them into a single “super cutter” that would’ve been a truly prolific rainstorm for the East Coast. Not happening!

          This is the “split flow” issue that we ran into earlier in the winter. And it’s another way you can keep snow away from SNE. We’ve found just about every way possible to do that this winter 😉

  67. Big flakes mixing in Manchester CT with heavy snow. Kiss of death. I think we are going to transition to sleet soon. About 1.75″ on the ground. Not gonna be any over achieving snow amounts here.

  68. Very fine flakes and snowing steadily here in Swampscott. Roofs and trees turning white. Kind of nice out.

  69. And sure enough, we flip. 100% sleet now. Didn’t even muster 4 hours of snow or 2″ before the changeover. Will probably end up in the 2-3″ range factoring in the sleet yet to fall and I probably have a bit more snow at the house but this is pretty lame to the say the least. NAM nailed it with the quicker changeover.

  70. Still snowing in quincy. I stupidly left my car brush at home. Going to hand wipe the snow off. Always fun lol

  71. I came home about 15 minutes ago, at which time I took a measurement.
    A Paltry 3/4 inch. Most disappointing as the intensity looked more than that.
    Must be that we just haven’t seen much snow this Winter. Disgusting.

    We’re going to get dumped on! Not!

    My 3 inches Max for JP is beginning to look good. We shall see how it shakes out. 😀

    2. Small flakes. It’s snow that packs as it falls. It’s not “wet snow” persay, but it’s high density, no fluff snow. This was one of the reasons I went lower on amounts. Combined that and duration before sleet. I have felt all along the NAM may be closest in timing. So far it’s right on the button (or within an hour).

  72. Look at the 12z Euro/EPS the next 10 days. This upper level is pattern is so locked in it’s incredible. Not just the US, but the entire mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere. I do think it could break towards the last week of the month, in favor of something closer to 180 degrees opposite. But that will be only after this same pattern carries us for a month or more. There’s still some flexibility at the surface, but the dice remain loaded in favor of more of what we’ve seen. Especially impressive given the lack of a strong ENSO influence, which can help shape a steadier pattern. In its absence I’d guess it’s been the persistence of the MJO as the driving global scale factor.

    TK, you’ve mentioned the 80s a lot this winter. Was this sort of thing more common then, an upper air pattern that holds for a month at a time? A lot of those were low-snow years, and I’d imagine this is how you can get it to happen several times over the course of a decade or two, unlike what we’ve seen a lot of over the past 20 years or so.

    1. Well in my earliest days of studying the upper pattern, yes there were a lot of “locked in” patterns those winters as best as I can remember. And a lot of them were low snow years. 1985-1986, 1988-1989 come to mind. Even the 1982-1983 winter reminds me a little bit of it all, however I know the pattern did show a little more variability, though some similarity as well, to what we have now. Ironically that winter was book-ended by major snowstorms December 5-6 1981 and April 6 1982.

  73. It’s my understanding that driving around the area is not good. I’m thinking, and TK please correct, is that it is because it packs when it falls and creates an ice area underneath ???

    1. Packing snow on an untreated surface can result in pretty solid ice, or at least patches of it. In cases of partial melting, you can have a mix of ice & slush.

  77. Pelting sleet here in Manchester CT. Did not make 2″ of snow either here or in Coventry before the changeover.

    Sleet line has crossed pretty much all of CT at this point and is approaching the Mass Pike.

  81. Getting several reports of freezing rain occasionally mixing in with the sleet across CT as well.

    Definitely would hedge earlier on the changeover times. Warm air is just flooding in aloft. Still cold at the surface though…..only 22 in Hartford and 21 at BDL. Many hours of sleet and ice to go.

  82. Mark I am wondering if most of inland CT will stay below freezing for the duration. Wind out of the north locking in the cold air and upper teens low 20s across the interior.

    1. Yes, I think the vast majority of the meaningful precip falls frozen. By the time it warms above freezing we are left with just some scattered rain showers and drizzle.

  83. I must say, I am completely UNIMPRESSED by this fake event. 😀
    Seriously, it isn’t much of anything. A little snow and then some sleet.
    It’s New England. Big Deal.

    Yes the roads are greasy. I know, I was out on them. Witnessed many vehicles
    slipping and sliding. Also saw an accident scene. So yes, one must exercise caution, but
    it is nothing we haven’t seen before.

    Waiting on the sleet now. What is the over/under??? TK says around 7PM.
    I am guessing a bit earlier. We shall see.

  85. Light snow in Back Bay. Was perhaps moderate for a brief period. Accumulating, yes. But this is not going to get anywhere close to 4 or 5 inches. Perhaps 2 or 3 at most. Looks pretty. Will all wash away tomorrow, sadly.

    Our hope for bigger and lasting snows appears to be in the window TK alluded to. Looks like enough cold air in place, and relatively persistent next week. Whether the storms stay suppressed to our south remains the $64,000 question.

  86. Mark, I think you’re right about the sleet moving in before 7pm. My guess is it’s here by 6pm in Boston. Rain to follow later in the evening. Oh well.

    JPDave is correct. This is an unimpressive event, not that we didn’t know that prior to it happening. No punch, just a meek grazing jab. Symbolic of our winter thus far. And time is running out.

    1. That is the most important aspect of this event. Once again many (not really here but in general) were focused on final snow totals and overlooking conditions and timing. The schools nailed it today. Most released early, counting a full day with no make-up needed, and getting most buses off the road before the roads had deteriorated too much, or at all in some cases. This is the type of situation where an early released was a good choice and worked well.

      Work places of course are more variable. Some let go early, others just stayed home anyway because they could work from home without having to make a decision on when to leave. And the ones that have to commute from (or to) work during this at least have a little less volume to deal with.

        1. A saw a video from a friend in Seattle of huge clumps of flakes falling yesterday. It looked awesome.

  93. 12z Euro has three systems passing to our south to watch in the next 7 days….

    1. Saturday is largely a miss with LI, MV and Nantucket getting grazed by some light snow.

    2. Sunday system tracks a bit further north and delivers up to an inch for CT, RI and SE MA, a bit more on the islands.

    3. Tuesday system is the strongest of the three and the closest pass delivering widespread accumulating snow. 5-8″ verbatim on the snow map.

    Suppression is the risk with all three of these.

    1. The 3rd one may actually do something here. This is a period I’ve been watching for a few days now.

      1. Its the best chance we have had in awhile and encouraging to see the models pretty consistently showing the threat this far out.

  95. Sleet in Framingham. Now freezing rain Lakeville/Taunton area. Best I can tell the changeover line is now approaching the southern half of the 95/128 belt

  98. According to Mayor Walsh, it is impossible to dismiss school in the city of Boston due to the school buses. I don’t understand. I went to BPS and I seem to remember early dismissals on occasion.

    1. No. I don’t agree with Eric on that system right now. It’s possible, but I am more focused on the one behind it. Sometimes it’s the first one that ends up coming up and the other does not. So he’s not out to lunch on thinking that one is possible.

  101. K.L. brave, still going for 5 inches at Logan. They’re going to need a whole lot of snow in the next few minutes to make that.

    The first pellets of sleet are arriving here in Woburn, about 50 minutes ahead of my target time.

      1. It arrived this way because of what JMA, WxW, SAK (through his blog) and myself have been talking about. A stronger primary low, less secondary. Nothing to hold the cold in up there. The weather pattern we are in supports THIS kind of system.

    1. Their biggest snowstorm of the winter so far! 😉

      I think they may tack on another tenth or two with sleet and get into the lower end of my 2-4 range there.

  105. Logan’s creeping up towards the `magic’ minimum mark for the seasonal total. Looking ahead I see a pattern shift of sorts, or perhaps better put an interlude, that may allow a sneaky, fluffy storm (high ratio) next week to put Logan into double digits for the season and end that discussion.

    TK, had the primary low transferred its energy to the coast (weakening in the process), and had the secondary low then strengthened off the coast would there have been an all-snow event today? We’d still be stuck between two cold highs – one that’s moving away from us and another that’s coming towards us but wouldn’t really be here in time.

    1. It very well could have been all (or mostly) snow in that case. But we needed a high that was not going to be easily shoved out of the way and more energy for a secondary to tap. We didn’t have any of that.

  107. Ok, started mixing with some sleet around 6:30, ALL sleet by 6:45.
    Measured 2.75 inches just as it switched to all sleet. I cleared the area
    so I can measure any sleet that falls, although I feel the sleet may be short
    lived. Up to 31 here.

    14.05 inches on the season here.

      2. No there wasn’t Susan but a real man owns up
        When he was wrong . Felt it was going to stay colder longer .

            1. Ohhhh, I see now. That wasn’t the point of my comment but it is always good when you can admit you are wrong.

  109. Mostly sleet here in Woburn now, still mixes with some larger snowflakes at times. There are still some pockets of cold aloft which cause a few areas to flip back to snow as far south as northern RI, but this won’t last long.

    My measurement as of 7PM is 2.8 inches and I suspect another couple tenths to go will get me to about 3 inches or exactly in the middle of the 2-4 inch range I had Woods Hill in.

  110. So looks like Boston did squeak into the range. All in all a great forecast by TK and generally well forecast by a lot of mets in SNE. As long as you didn’t buy the long duration snow scenario (the GFS), you were fine. The NAM definitely did the best, both the 12km and 3km. What a turnaround NCEP has pulled off with that model. It still overdoes the QPF from time to time, and you can usually tell when. And it’s still not designed to be any use in the tropics. But its thermal fields and storm tracks have been really good and getting better for the past few winters. I rag on the GFS sometimes, and it certainly is awful (as is the FV3, which was even worse with this storm), but credit where it’s due, the NAM is far from the laughingstock it once was.

    1. Nice comment WxW. As with the last one ALL the major Mets either nailed this or came darned close. And TK…..well, it is a given.

    2. I, too, have been rather pleased with the NAM. I thought the general consensus among the mets I saw was good. I was a little surprised to see at least one of them still trying to get Logan to 5 but I’m sure he had his reasons.

      I’m getting a little excited to try to figure out what is going to happen with those 2 waves next week (the one Eric likes for Monday and the one I like for around Wednesday).

      1. Well if you are getting excited then I have no choice but to be excited. Always fun to see how it pans out, no matter the outcome.

        Job well done on this one TK and WxW!

      2. Me, too. Hoping something good comes of the two waves next week.

        Liked Eric Fisher’s lengthy piece on this winter. Someone posted this. I forget who. In any case, I had one issue with it. Fisher repeatedly talks about how mild the winter has been, saying that December through early February had been “very mild.” I don’t believe that is the case. I certainly do not feel like this winter has been particularly mild. Several very mild short-lived periods, but also several very cold short-lived periods, and lots of in-between stuff. Relatively snowless, yes. Mild, not especially.

    1. No, but that doesn’t mean that can’t be something else coming along by then.

      We’ll have to see. 🙂

    1. Thanks for sharing Joshua. One wonders if 2019 will have any memorable snow event other than the “lack of” snow? 😉

      9.0” = 1936-37 (least snowiest)

  116. I just measured another 3/8 of an inch of mostly sleet for 3 1/8 inch total. WOW!!
    Even on the grass with snow + sleet an even 3 inches.

  117. I been busy with work and some social stuff as well so was not updating my blog since last night, also not near a computer right now as I am not home and won’t be home till tomorrow night, but here is what I thought. I think I ended up a bit high, but I did get in the 4 ish range before the change over happened up in Billerica, my brother measured 4ish inches of snow before the change to sleet. Here in West end of Boston, I would guess 3 inches based on a finger measurement. Yes I measured my finger just for this occasion of not having a ruler 😛
    https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/

  119. Mixture of sleet and freezing rain here in Coventry CT. Precip is more patchy now on the radar. We have warmed up to 29F.

    Measured about 2.5” of compacted snow/sleet/crust on the deck.

  120. Just checked to see if I could sit out. But Some freeing rain here also, mark. I think not enough to be an impact. Everything does have a light ice coating.

    1. Just checked spotter reports for Upstate NY, VT, NH, and Maine. Granted the storm is still in progress, but the highest report I found anywhere was 6.6″ in Saratoga County, NY. Lots of sleet mixing occurring pretty far north with this storm.

  122. Adding sleet, I’m up to 3.3 inches for the storm now here in Woburn. One more surge of precip to come and then that’ll be about it.

  124. March 2015, first 10 days of April 2016, March 2017, March 2018, what have they shared in common? Below to well below normal temperatures with several major snow events. Will March 2019 be different?

    1. I believe so. Although March 2015 did not have several major snow events. It had one significant one after which it was DRY & COLD.

    1. That should do it. Lower end of 2-4 inch range.
      3.3 here, right in the middle of the range. I have to look at all the snow/sleet reports to see how well the forecast verified elsewhere. I was sort of absorbed in the Bruins game and then I took a short nap. 😉

Comments are closed.