Friday Forecast

137 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A warm front / cold front combo comes through the region today (this morning and evening, respectively) as their parent low travels across southern Canada. This system will bring some scattered rain with its warm front, a few isolated rain showers in its warm sector, which will also be filled with a fair amount of wind, and a broken band of showers, which may be weakening as it moves east, along its cold front. Behind this comes colder air for the weekend and during this time a wave of low pressure will miss our area to the south. Still watching a second area of low pressure which gets closer later Sunday to early Monday but still to me looks like it will be far enough for a miss. It would also be fighting some drier air in place even if it was closer, so a “hit” would likely be very minor anyway. Will keep watching. High pressure brings dry weather to end this period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain morning. Isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible early. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 33-40. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Possible snow/mix late February 20 to early February 21 depending on the track of a storm passing near or south of the region. Another low pressure system may impact the region with a risk of rain/mix/snow later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
A system may bring a rain/snow risk around February 27-28 otherwise generally dry weather overall with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

137 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

        1. I typically do everything side by side on my screen. Everything I do is confidential due to NDAs so has to be shredded if I print. I hate to shred so I never print! For these, I want to spread them out, mark and compare.

          I do enjoy this. Thank you!!!

  9. Matt Noyes showed a model bringing widespread light snow for all of SNE for Monday. I think it was either the NAM or GFS?

  14. Thank you, TK.

    Complaint about the forecast for today at 11pm(!) last night on 3 separate TV channels. All 3 forecasts said it would be a hit or miss shower today – Eric Fisher used the phrase “passing shower” – but that most of the day would be dry. Indeed, the map shown with model projections last night basically showed very little green (ie, rain). Well, it’s a rainy day, folks, in Boston. Steady light rain for the last 3 hours. I’m inside now so I don’t know what it’s doing. But this was not a passing shower. I was outside for the last 3 hours running a ton of errands and it was non-stop rain (light and even moderate for a bit).

        1. Mansfield? I think we have been spitting on and off in Sutton with a bit of steady drizzle. We are still at 0.01. I checked a few surrounding stations and they are the same. I suspect we were not under the plume Tom mentioned. I didn’t have time to look. I do see a lot of green along the south shore now though.

    2. That eastern plume of rain seems to be about 30 to 40 miles further west than shown on the simulated radars from last evening and I believe that’s what is doing the trick if you happen to be under that narrow plume.

  17. Man, I wished I hadn’t listened to the forecasts that told me everything would be melted by end of day today and I had cleaned my walkway and driveway…Not even close to gone and everything is an icy mess. 🙂

    2. Yike – where are you, mel? I forget. My son in law shoveled the couple inches before it turned to sleet but we had about an inch of sleet the next morning (was that Tuesday – it’s a long week). But the slush disappeared right away and then the snow melted yesterday after the heavy squalls Wednesday night.

      We are at 50 degrees now.

      1. In North Reading. We had about 3.5 inches of snow. Unfortunately, our house in on the side of the street that gets much less sun.

  18. 12z Euro brushes us with some light snow from the Monday system. Would just be a coating to an inch for most with up to 2″ in western MA and CT.

    As stated above, the 12z GFS and NAM are a bit more robust. I am not clear why, but the models are keeping the light snow going over us for a long time after the system is well out to sea to our southeast. Almost similar to what happens in a Norlun type setup though doesn’t appear to be that.

    So it does look like we are going to get something but jury is out whether it is just a nuisance snow or something more “substantial” like a few inches.

  19. Today really has a SNE spring feel to it: Raw, light rain, upper 40s, windy. I realize this is “weak frontal passage to our west.” But, while it’s weak it’s a real rain producer for some, it’s windy, and it ain’t pleasant.

    1. Petey B. said today would remind you of late March. I agree with that.

      I think a lot of people saw a # that started with 5 in the temp range and just suddenly decided today was going to be warm. Nope.

  20. Also, looking at the 12z models for later in the week….

    For the Wed/Thurs AM system, the 12z Euro, CMC, ICON, and FV3 are all snow to mix to rain while the GFS has trended to a colder/all snow scenario that would be a 3-6″ type scenario.

    All models have the third system as well on Sunday/Monday. GFS and Euro are cutters – snow to mix to rain. FV3 and CMC manage to shoot the system out to the east underneath us, with some coastal redevelopment, and keep the precip mostly snow.

    I’d be surprised if either of these events ends up all snow based on how things have been going but you never know.

    1. Kitchen sink has been the theme this winter instead of just snow and looks like the theme continues middle of next week.

  22. Don’t worry folks count my forecast in with all the bad ones today. Scattered light rain it was not. However, some folks made it sound like a rainy day. It’s not that either. Let’s not exaggerate too much to the other side either. Yes the atmosphere was a bit more juiced than all available data lead us to believe. That’s why NOBODY had it right. It happens. 😉 Did anyone melt? 😛

      1. I got some areas right with the melting. I got every area right with the snow/sleet forecast. But many people want perfection. We’re just not good enough. 😉 I don’t mean this blog, but I had somebody tell me I was wrong still when their snowfall amount was IN the range I gave them. 😉

      1. It definitely rained a little more and a little heavier than I expected, but not that much. I figured (though I didn’t specifically mention it above) maybe about 1 to 2 wet hours during the morning and less than 1 wet hour in the afternoon and evening.

  26. Sooooooooooooo, our TopKatt. I’m not sure you were all that incorrect with today’s precip forecast

    Your forecast was Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain morning. Isolated rain showers afternoon.

    I started with Sutton (because I think everything starts there – correct?) and went to Hopkinton, Ashland, Wayland, Belmont, Newton. Pretty much central south to central east if you will. All readings were between 0.01 and 0.04 except Newton which was 0.08. JPD has about same as Newton. Woburn is 0.03. Andover is 0.11. Mansfield is 0.12. Our favorite, Logan, is 0.07.

    And then we get to those pesky folks on the south shore. Duxbury is 0.19. Halifax is 0.2. The Scituate page kept crashing so I think they are embarrassed by their shenanigans.

    And then there is the peskier area such as Sturbridge which has 0.29. And North Adams with 0.48.

    I’d say the vast majority fits right into your forecast.

    2. When your out in it for most of the day and you hear thunder and you are pretty wet you just might say , ” hey it rained a lot today” . And from perspective it did

      1. That makes absolute sense and in some areas there was surely more rain. It seems in a larger area, there was exactly what TK forecast. It sure was a raw feel even with temps into 40s.

        1. Just to be sure I’m being clear Since I’m not sure that was evident from my comment. I was not trying to prove anyone was incorrect other than TK when he stated his forecast was bad. It wasn’t.

  28. Regarding Monday’s interpretation, this is a high-liklihood situation of “the model becoming the forecast”. At this time there is no current change to the forecast in the original post above after my analysis of the latest info.

        1. Well, I must admit, I was skeptical after viewing the Euro.
          Interesting. We shall see how it plays out.

          Neither the NAM or the GFS backed off with the 18Z run.

          Onto run 0Z

  30. Yet another thunderstorm !!

    Torrents with a loud crack of thunder. We have to have seen > 0.50 over the last 3 to 4 hours.

  31. Let’s play a little game….quiz if you will.

    Here is a chart of annual snowfall for a city in the USA, it includes monthly and seasonal totals along with # snow days per month.

    https://imgur.com/a/nrHRarB

    Can you guess what state this is? What city?

    You may be surprised. 😀

    2. I know it but I feel like I shouldn’t answer. I worked with the MA state climatologist who was obsessed with this location for some reason. I basically have this memorized thanks to him. 😉

    3. I was thinking Glacier National park area but that is close to where Tom guessed. Alaska seems obvious to me with little knowledge of Alaska. So another completely uninformed Vicki guess …Buffalo, NY?

  33. I am going to guess a city that sees lake effect snow with a season total that high.
    My guess is Syracuse, NY.

    1. Ohhh just saw this. I was between buffalo,and Syracuse. Macs uncle and family lived in Rochester for decades so I was always interested in the snow in that area. Maybe mine isn’t as wild as I thought.

  34. Well, the model has apparently become the forecast on local TV. Already #’s being talked about for Monday…

    I’m not going there right now. 🙂

    1. Maybe you should tomorrow. Harvey just said 1-3 but would need to revisit as it gets closer . I’m off till Wednesday but not if that pans out . Usually when I don’t want it the snow comes so there ya go .

    2. I commented earlier that the GFS and NAM were hanging onto the snow long after the storm was gone well out to sea to our south and east. I found that peculiar. Looked almost similar to a Norlun type situation. Makes me a bit skeptical, especially after seeing the Euro.

  35. Dave, regarding your snow numbers, I am going with Caribou, Maine. I know they average a little over 100″ per year and the monthly breakdown seems reasonable. They recently made the news for breaking their all time snow record in January with 60″ on the month. They are already well over their norm for the entire season.

    Second guess is Lake Placid, NY who averages about that as well.

    I was thinking a lake effect town initially like JJ however the lake towns tend to get a ton of their snow up front during the winter when the lakes are still unfrozen. The lake effect typically tails off by Feb and March when the lakes freeze over. So the month breakdown distribution for Syracuse or Buffalo doesnt look right to me. Not enough snow in the Nov-Jan months.

        1. At 7,000 feet (2,130 m) elevation, next to the largest contiguous Ponderosa Pine forest in North America, Flagstaff is on a mountain surrounded by volcanoes, in the heart of the Coconino national forest. Any type of desert climate can be found below its elevation 100 miles from Flagstaff.

  37. Reguarding TK’s forecasts, there are none better. I have been a school committee member for 15 years in North Reading and since I found this blog I constantly am in contact with our superintendent of schools during story times to give him the “real forecast.” I also have linked to the blog several times on one of our community Facebook pages. People constantly message me now when a storm is coming to ask what is really going to happen. I tell them, but I also direct them to this blog where I got the info.

        1. That’s the fun part. I read it and didn’t see one error. And I do a fair amount of editing. Shows you how a mind turns off for online commenting

  38. Thank you Mel 🙂

    Regarding the TV guys using #’s. I have no issue with it tonight. I just wouldn’t do it yet. Too quick a shift, 1 or 2 runs and not all guidance going there. I need more before I hop on that kiddie coaster. 😉 They usually give me whiplash. 😛

      1. Yes, I’m Sweden. My friend is daughter of a couple who were dear friends of Macs family when they lived in Sweden in the 50s. She lives in NYC but is home visiting her dad.

      1. This is why I have a multitiered approach to driving during conditions like this:

        Step One: avoid driving and stay off the road. If I can’t do that and I am caught in unsafe or whiteout conditions:
        Step Two: Take an exit, find somewhere to park and wait out the density/worst part. If that isn’t possible:
        Step Three: Turn on hazards and drive slow in the right lane. Impatient unsafe drivers will 9 times out of 10 be in the left lane.

    1. So basically just following model forecasts then. I don’t agree with that 3-5 and I think Ch 7 will end up closest (again).

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