9:09AM
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 threats of unsettled weather exist during this 5-day period, as the first of what would be 3 remains far to the south to start the weekend. The first actual impact threat to SNE, a small area of low pressure, passes south of the region Sunday night and early Monday but with the bulk of the moisture staying just to the south and a lot of dry air in place, and factoring in guidance over-forecasting precipitation, will go for very light snowfall amounts. A break behind it before a slightly larger and slightly more moisture-laden system approaches by later Wednesday and with enough cold air in place to begin as snow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow arriving. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy start with light snow ending west to east by midday after accumulating a coating to 1 inch along the South Coast except up to 2 inches on Nantucket and a dusting to a coating everywhere else. Clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Snow/mix/rain likely February 21 as a storm passes near or just south of the region (track and precipitation type still somewhat uncertain). Next storm threat about February 24 may drag milder air in with it and be a mix to rain set-up but still quite far out there and low confidence. Dry weather between systems and to end the period as well. Temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal overall.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Next storm threat in a stubborn pattern would be right around February 28 with another possibly to follow around the end of the period.
Flying home from Florida mid-afternoon on the 21st…any chance we’ll run into problems?
I have a hunch the system may be departing but maybe some delays .. ??
Good morning and thank y0u TK.
Thanks TK !
12Z NAM for wee hours of Monday morning
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019021612/045/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
Not buying what NAM & GFS are selling. I’ve seen this before.
I know, you have been down playing this one all along.
12Z NAM Kuchera snow for Monday from Pivotal
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019021612/063/snku_acc.us_ne.png
from College of DuPage
https://imgur.com/a/XsSVC6k
12Z 3KM NAM is quite Bullish indeed! Waiting for run completion to post snow map.
Up considerably from the 6Z run.
NAM, and somewhat GFS, are over-forecasting precipitation. Subsidence, confluence, and anticyclonic upper flow are NOT favorable factors here.
12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow (5 inches for Boston)
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019021612/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Take about 4.5 to 4.9 inches off of that and we should be good.
NWS downplaying too. Top amount 2 inches near the S Coast, coating to 1 everywhere else S Coast, less than 1 remainder of region.
I did see that. Interesting.
ERIC said 1-3 last night on the 11PM broadcast.
I also find it interesting that the 0Z euro was up from the 12Z euro.
Wonder what today’s 12Z run will show?
the 3KM NAM made a huge jump between the 6Z and 12Z run.
Thank you, TK. What a spectacular morning.
9Z SREF Mean snow from all ensemble members is 3.0 inches for boston with members high of 6 and low of 0.1.
Go low!
Pay attention to RGEM & WRF-NMM on this.
Waiting for the RGEM now
6z RGEM was very robust across CT and RI dropping 3-5” of snow and still snowing at the end of the run
Ditto 12Z
Yes it was, but I should have been more specific. It will come down in future runs I think, but it has a better detailed evolution of the snow area with highest amounts in southwestern New England and the factors I spoke of above showing their influence elsewhere.
So what are thinking for CT…1-3?
12Z RGEM or RDPS whichever you would like to call it.
Kuchera Snow (still in the event at 48 hours)
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019021612/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
surface (clearly depicts axis of more snow to the South)
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019021612/048/prateptype.us_ne.png
I’ll join TK and NWS Boston in generally thinking lower totals on the Monday system, especially away from the South Coast. One possible exception is that I could see a decent 2-4″ band in southern CT/RI/southeast MA as we get some energy transfer occurring, but there will likely be a sharper N-S gradient than currently depicted. Dynamics with this system are poor. Weak lift in the snow growth zone, and models hanging onto accumulating precip too long as subsidence sets in. North of the CT/RI borders with MA, I think it’ll be tough to exceed an inch. But we’ve still got some time to watch it, so not 100% confident yet. However, coming on a holiday weekend, it should be a fairly low impact event.
of course the Monday event will favor people south and west, can’t win this winter.
Yes, we will be enjoying that whole coating we may get on Monday. Break out the sleds!
12Z HRW WRF-ARW Kuchera snow
https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2019021612/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
12Z HRW NMMB Kucher snow
https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnmmb/2019021612/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
12Z HRW WRF-NSSL kuchera snow (still snowing)
https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2019021612/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
The fact that Barry is calling for 1-3” must mean that is what his favorite Euro is showing.
00z Euro had a general 1-2”
Logan received 0.10 inch (rain) yesterday.
Thank you TK!
I Believer there is some one on here who is a big Phish fan.
Here is a new tune by Vampire Weekend that sounds like Phish/Grateful Dead
only better imho.
If you would like, have a listen…. I absolutely love this tune. Listening right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfGEq0JWxGM
I’m the Phish fan and will give this a listen!
Hope you enjoy.
NWS did bump the latest update up slightly.
For boston from < 1 inch to 2 inches.
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.png
Is that a legitimate trend?
It’s just their forecast update. Trends are related to model forecasts really.
these 12Z CMC surface and precip maps show the effects of the “transfer of energy”
to the off shore system. Kind of lost in the shuffle in the Boston Area.
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021612/042/prateptype.us_ne.png
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021612/045/prateptype.us_ne.png
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021612/048/prateptype.us_ne.png
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021612/054/prateptype.us_ne.png
Kuchera Snow
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019021612/066/snku_acc.us_ne.png
No I am waiting on the UKMET and more importantly, the EURO.
So Tk your thoughts on my location in the city C-1 thanks . How about here in pembroke maybe 1-2
City, trace. Pembroke, coating to 1.
So maybe not even a call in
Well, if my forecast is correct, maybe not, unless they need some treatment put down.
If it’s just a sugar coating maybe not anything more than that would result in calling in the crew
What’s Harvey forecasting?
I think it was 2-4 as of last night.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzgIz-uWwAEJeEO.jpg:large
I’m assuming your asking me a question & not being sarcastic ?? Harvey has taking a bad rap here & last I knew it was suggested we do not put down Mets here . So if you want to know I have not seen anything from him today just last night . Harvey is a very good meteorologist as well as others . As we know I think they are all known to Jump our of the gate a tad to fast . Have a nice day Keith
Ssk….I suspect you are referring to my comment on Mets. I never said not to mention Mets. I probably said not to put them down in the true sense. But I did say if people do name a met, i believe it should be an accurate quote. Anything else is just wrong. And I think everyone likes Harvey. He was at a number of parties I attended years ago and is an awesome person.
SSK…just wondering. You lean toward Harvey. Legit question. And BTW how did the advice I gave you about SSMC work out for you? Have a nice day SSK.
And I like Harvey…in fact there really isn’t one met I don’t like. And if you bothered to check any past posts I made then you would know I never put down a Met.
12z GFS Kuchera Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019021612&fh=72&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=gfs
A general 2.5-3.5” pretty much everywhere across SNE
12Z UKMET pretty bullish on Monday Snow!
https://imgur.com/a/ChYrqs1
Not a “snowball” of a chance happening, of course.
According to Barry, the Wednesday/Thursday system is the usual snow to rain scenario.
Followed by flash freeze at night as well?
12Z Euro (waiting on my service for snow maps, but looks like 1-3. We shall see)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021612/ecmwf_mslpa_us_3.png
Of the major models, the 12z Euro and CMC are best in line with my thinking.
Wednesday’s storm does not impress me either. That one will be drying up as it approaches, withering in the subsidence of the Southeast ridge. Some snow/mix is likely, but it will not be a major storm.
The story of the 12Z Euro unfolds…..
localStorage.getItem(‘k’)
Well mu clip board grabbed some java script.

please try this….
https://imgur.com/a/CEJPadR
It’s trended upward a bit with the totals again, especially here in CT
WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT the bleep is this
from the EURO???? I guess they Euro didn’t get the memo about NO MORE CUTTERS
this season!@&#*&!@*(&#(!&@*(#&!*(@&#!*&@
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021612/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png
Next weekends storm looks like a cutter on all the models but that is way over amped.
A Colorado low?
Yup, here is the origin of that piece of shit!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021612/ecmwf_mslpa_us_7.png
Cutter??? This one is almost shooting into Manitoba.
More like a Lake Winnipeg Cutter!!
When TK posted yesterday it was of “Pacific” origin, I had a bad feeling.
To amplified and feel like there will be secondary development, but probably to late like all the other systems we been dealing with
I’m not yet convinced that we awesome up much for the midweek system but I do share WxW’s opinion of it in general about the subsidence factor.
I sure hope that system awesomes’s up soon on the models because it looks like sh!t right now
What a day feels much Warner than 43. Truck is nice & clean the way I like it
18Z Kuchera Snow for Monday (about the same as 12Z run give or take)
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019021618/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Kelly from ch 5 has Boston at 1-3 saying probably low end . She said around 10pm Sunday night through most of Monday
18Z 3KM NAM has come WAY down from the 12Z run.
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019021618/057/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Exactly what I was talking about with the N-S gradients and highest amounts in southern areas. And less QPF. This run looks very good to me.
I guess so, disappointed but not surprised. 18Z RGEM cranking now.
Time is ticking. Winter will officially be over in a precious few weeks.
4.8” to date
9.0” = 1936-37
Philip, where did that extra 1/10 come from? Did they get 1/10 inch from
that squall the other night? Please advise and I’ll update my spreadsheet.
I currently have them at 4.7 inches.
That squall only recorded a Trace but the last Tuesday event gave Logan 2.4” bringing the total snowfall to date at 4.8”.
You know how Logan is, it takes a gazillion measurements to get a final snow total.
I may be off base here, but doesn’t the 18Z 36 hour HRRR show our system in
better position for any energy transfer? Ie Coastal redevelopment (weak as it may be)
would be closer to our area and thus have a bit more moisture????
https://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2019021618/036/ref1km_ptype.us_ne.png
18Z RDPS (RGEM) for the same time
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019021618/036/prateptype.us_ne.png
In comparing the 18Z HRRR with the 18Z RDPS, it appears to me that the HRRR
would place the northern edge of the “heavier” snow 50-75 miles farther North.
Ie into the Boston Area. We;ll see what the 0Z 36 hour HRRR does with it.
18Z RDPS (still snowing lightly)
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019021618/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Thank you, TK.
Looking ahead it’s really more of the same: Systems drop by every 3 days or so and tend to give us more rain or mix than snow, cold never lingers, blah blah blah. In fact, there isn’t any real cold or significant snow in the long-range. Winter’s going down without a fight. That’s unusual, but appears to be the case this year. No umpf, no bite, no nothing. Not as bad as 2011-2012, but pretty darn close in SNE. I realize that NNE is a totally different story.
Time’s a wasting that’s for sure. We shall see.
18Z Kuchera Snow
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019021618/072/sn10_acc.us_ne.png
Nws upped their snow totals
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.png
One of these systems will give us some surprises that we will not see until a day before.
Well if we see it a day before it still won’t be a surprise.
ha ha ha
thats true lol.
Anticyclonic curvature.
Confluence.
Subsidence.
Could you possibly post a link that shows the anticyclonic curvature???
Is that if you think of a roller coaster or a ridge. The up and down part, that’s how the snow projections look. Going SW to NE through NY state, then NW to SE through New England. Like a ridge, where precip generation isn’t great or in this case, sustainable.
Huh?
I want to see a map with anticyclonic winds depicted.
I look at 850MB sw winds
500 mb SW winds
200 and 300 mb WSW winds.
No where do I see NW winds???
What am I missing here????
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2019021618&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=036
Or maybe explain with a few more words
Evening snowfall forecasts: https://i.imgur.com/TNr6grd.jpg
Interesting that Ch. 7 and NWS have highest totals.
Well, not surprising NWS.
Ch. 7 is really bullish on widespread 2-4. The met showed a model with deep blues covering all of SNE for quite a long duration into Monday afternoon.
Ch. 7 has been really good in forecasting amounts so far this winter. Hard to go against them. Does their streak end on President’s Day?
Must be going by the Nam , Euro has less
euro ensemble break down (Billerica)
snow 5
wintry mix 43
rain
nothing 2
Forgot to post this in the AM. Update to weather forecasting app tracking: https://i.imgur.com/KHhCIw2.jpg
Thank you dr. This is #4??
Yes!
Ch 7 saying 2-4
Is the map different than what I posted above?
Not unless they forgot to update web page
https://whdh.com/weather/
Looks like that was 2-4 that 7 had . He said maybe less towards cape with sleet I believe
0Z models are all over the place, led by the NAM which is now showing 6 inches.
HRRR not bullish followed by the next non-bullish the RDPS.
SREF mean for boston now up to 4.8 inches.
0Z HRW WRF-NSSL
https://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2019021700/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
That is HILARIOUS.
Anticyclonic curvature. Imaging yourself riding along the upper winds. You’d be turning slowly to the right. That turn is anticyclonic.
I get that but I don’t see it on a map. I need something visual. thanks
Good morning,
Euro has 4 inches for Boston
SREF mean is 4.4 for boston.
Euro snow
https://imgur.com/a/3rhlHon
NAM
https://imgur.com/a/t6R5j0D
GFS
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019021706/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
RDPS
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019021706/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
NWS
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.png
Advisory up for Boston area and Winter Storm Watch for areas to the South
https://www.weather.gov/box/
advisory
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
WSW
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Nice discussion by NWS
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=box&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on
An RGEM/HRDPS blend pretty much gets you right to my forecast from yesterday morning; 2-4″ band over far southern SNE, C-2″ up to around the CT/RI borders with MA, C-1″ north of there. I still like that idea.
Seeing the most of the US hi-res guidance (WRFs, NAM, RAP) showing widespread 5-8″ doesn’t add a lot of confidence, but I think they’re just plain wrong. The Canadian short range guidance has consistently outperformed them this season. I continue to think Boston struggles to exceed an inch. Much more spread in the guidance than usual so close to the event. I’d hate to have to make this forecast for real though in SNE, because I’d don’t think I’d be able to go with numbers as low as I’d like to in the face of the higher guidance. My map probably wouldn’t look much different than the current NWS map, although I could definitely tighten the N-S gradient significantly such that the 2″ totals don’t go too far north of Boston, and could also subtract an inch off some places south of the Pike. But again, I’d rather go even lower in many places.
Yes.
Woul where I circled in blue indicate the “confluence” this systerm would be running into?
https://imgur.com/a/iAoptZn
A little further west but it’s hard to see here.
New post!
3Z SREF Mean Snow totals
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/03/sref_namer_063_snow_total_mean.gif