Sunday Forecast

209 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Still looking at impact from 2 low pressure systems during this 5-day period, the first a moisture-starved, fast-moving system with enough cold air in place for snow but not enough moisture for very much snow, with the most likely place for a few inches toward the South Coast. This will take place from late tonight into Monday. The second system will have a little more moisture to work with and will have enough cold air around to start as snow, but may not keep enough cold air around to stay snow, taking place late Wednesday into Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow arriving west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy start with light snow ending west to east by midday after accumulating a coating to 1 inch except 1-3 inches along the South Coast. Breaking clouds, partial sun, and a few lingering snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix/rain, followed by breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Dry weather at the start and end of this period. A storm threat mid period (about February 24) at this point looks like a mix to rain event. Temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Will watch for unsettled weather threats about February 28 and March 2 or 3 in a somewhat active but not overly wet pattern as weather systems continue to move rapidly along. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

209 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  6. Serious Question….

    Do you think TV Mets have the same feeling as TK and WxWatcher, BUT in the face
    of all of the other guidance can’t go on air with the lower amounts? Just curious.

    Jacob Wycoff had 2-4 inches at 11 last night.

    Fascinating….Let’s see how it shakes out.

  7. Barry is quite bullish on snow totals. The Euro must be crankin’. 😉

    A good 3-4 inches for Boston with up to 6” for SE MA/Cape except the islands.

    Snow to rain Wed/early Thurs. but what else is new?

  9. Good morning, y’all, and thanks as always, TK!!!

    I don’t know birds nor their calls, but, on my way out to get early morning coffee, I did hear some happy songs from our feathered friends that I haven’t heard since last year!!!

  10. According to Barry, even though the system is not impressive right now, he expects it to get more potent when it arrives here. He didn’t say why or how though.

    My only guess is atmospheric lift?

  12. Barry changed his amounts a couple of times through the WBZ broadcasts. h ended up with a large swath of 3-5″ from the South Coast up to and including Boston. He felt Boston would be around 3.” (Previously he forecasted 1-3″ and then 3-6″for these areas and put them further south.)

            1. Not yet Tom but I’m expecting a call to either report at certain time or it will be a call from operations during the night . Usually it’s the first . I said I didn’t want this one & so it will probably happen on Friday . I was off till Wednesday but once midnight hits it’s holiday pay so double time .

              1. Nice on the double pay !

                Well, whatever falls, this should be the ‘most pleasant’ system this year to work in. None of that cold, rain after snow to make the snow heavy and you and your coworkers wet.

  16. Good morning everyone!

    Here are the morning snow forecasts from around the dial: https://i.imgur.com/N6c9Xiu.jpg

    Sidenote: it’s funny just how little news stations update on the weekends. For a few of these I had to tune in live to get their snow maps because they are slow to update their website (and social media) on the weekends or forget totally.

  18. I’m going with a 90% TK / 10% model blend.

    I think TK has identified all the atmospheric factors working against this system.

    The 10% adds in 1/2 inch to his projected snow amounts.

  21. Not a fan of how HRRR is handling this in the broad sense, but better with precip perhaps. NAM is doing better than it was yesterday, in terms of evolution, but it’s still too high with precip/snow.

  23. 12z RGEM is a blow to my ideas… suggests the widespread 5-8 is in play. Certainly not sold on it completely, but may have to add a couple inches to my numbers if the rest of the 12z suite holds serve. Not to the extent of what most of the guidance is now showing though. Also, the latest (14z) HRRR, while not running out all the way through the system yet, looks better to me. Alas, off to go sort out the impacts for my own neck of the woods. Good day all 🙂

    1. Mighty confusing.

      HRRR certainly does not fit well with the RDPS.
      Wonder if the HRDPS is similar when it comes out?

  25. Keep in mind here this is literally a haggling over a couple TENTHS of an inch of melted precipitation. And some folks think this is easy? HAHAHAHA!!

        1. Agree 100%
          As has been said by others, no one seems to give 3 craps if the forecast rain 1 inch comes in at 0.5 inch. IT rained.
          However if the forecast snow is 10 inches and we get 5 people take notice.

    1. That loop is hilarious. “PLEASE. PLEASE LET ME BRING MIXING TO BOSTON. PLEASE.” The fact it gets denied is a miracle for this particular winter.

    1. I don’t know what to make of all of this.

      Notwithstanding what TK and WxWatcher have stated, with the new
      results from the RDPS and the HRDPS, I would say a reasonable
      3-4 inches or so. We shall see.

    1. That sounds like the same as their map I posted this morning above. Did they move it around or is it still the same as the one I posted above?

  33. So if we dumb down the data a little bit and not try too hard to search out every fringe model solution I think there is a bit of consensus.

    12z GFS / NAM / 3K NAM have an aggregate average of .28 along the Masspike – Springfield, Worcester, Boston. 3K NAM being the lowest on Q.

    So add a bit south of the pike take a bit off north of the pike. Decrease a bit in valleys add a bit for some oragrphic lift signals near east facing hills in conjunction with the valley shadowing and you know what you have is a general 2-4 pike and south and 1-2 north. If someone gets 5 instead of 4 they will live and if it underperforms so be it.

    Sometimes we just try too damn hard….

  34. Also some these models are giving too much creedance to additional daytime accumulation tomorrow during light snow and snow showers falling into 32 degree temps with ~Feb 20th sun angle.

    3. I was thinking about that: sun angle, 32 degrees, no snow pack to speak of in Boston. How cold are the surfaces? I would think this underperforms rather than a surprising overperformance.

  36. 2 to 4 inches region wide, with areas north of the pike seeing areas of less and areas south of the pike seeing more.

  37. If it were not for tomorrow being a holiday, school officials would be scratching their heads as to whether to cancel or delay. Will Thursday AM be a different story?

          1. Which, ,my friend, is what I will never understand. Playing to the lowest common denominator will never work. The ones you dumb down for will never be happy. So you end up spinning you wheels and still get criticized Sutton has school Wednesday through Friday.

  38. This amount of snow coming pales in comparison to 16 years ago with the big Presidents’ Day storm which gave Boston its biggest snowstorm on record.

  42. Vicki, does Sutton have school this week for make-up for snow days? They certainly will have wx issues come Thursday AM. Could be icy I bet.

    1. Sutton revises Feb vacation to just Monday and Tuesday about 2 years ago. We have not had any snow days this year, only delays and early dismissals

      1. Sorry, Tim. Did not see you had answered. I don’t have to ask my daughter after all. I can say that I am not a fan of the February vacation. Uxbridge started after labor day, has a full Feb vacation and gets out June 13.

        1. Sutton adds in a lot of extra days off like Fridays before holiday weekends and that random day off next month. I don’t like it, but it is what it is.

    2. I’m not even sure we have had a snow day. Might have been one early on. I’d have to ask my daughter. We have Just had late starts and one early release. But the answer is no, they do not make up days during vacations. Sutton does not have a full February vacation. Just tomorrow and Tuesday. I have no idea why since we are still scheduled to get out the 10th of June.

  43. Debating as to whether we’re seeing the first seabreezes of 2019?

    Light winds inland that are mainly calm with temps in the mid-upper 30s. Coastline has light winds off the ocean and its slightly colder.

        1. Yes . My wife & I went there this morning for the first time as I never knew it was up there . Absolutely phenomenal food & service . I found it a tad high but all good .

          1. Glad you enjoyed it. It’s a popular place for the middle school students. I’ve had good experiences there also. I’ve gone more for the ice cream, but have had good pancakes also.

                1. Where Roach brothers is up the driveway . I asked the lady & they have been there 6 yrs . Outstanding food .

    1. I haven’t seen it, but to answer your other post, I think that onshore wind may be a little more weak gradient driven than natural sea breeze since the ocean temps are above what the land is today.

  45. Just watched Bernie rayno on periscope. He’s calling for a general 3-6 “ from Hartford to the mass nh border, eastward to Boston and the south shore.

    1. there could be a swath of 6 to 8 inches in Plymouth county, I am guessing the models are seeing some ocean enhancement

    2. It is indeed. Wow!

      Also today was a beautiful day. Yesterday was nice, too. But today had a little more cold bite to it with bright sunshine (warmer in the sun).

  54. I used to – when I was a little kid – think the moon was God’s house. And he was a learned man with lots of books.

    1. You mean one of the TV station forecasts? I’m watching the Daytona 500 so I won’t really get to see the locals unless I go look them up. Though I may skip them all tonight and just stick with my own ideas.

  57. I did end up watching one of the channels. Ouch.

    “We usually have these totals flip-flopped but we think since this is coming in from the south that areas to the south will have more snow.” HUH? We do? And it’s coming from the south? No, it’s not.

    “Temperatures will stay below freezing during the day Monday. You will need to shovel all of this right after it falls because temperatures are going to fall back below freezing Monday night.” WHAT??? How can it fall back below freezing when it never GOT above freezing?

      1. The race is still going on believe it or not! So many wrecks. The weather is perfect. These racers just cannot drive anymore.

        I’m not buying the highs. If I bump my #’s up it won’t be by much and it will reflect about 0.10 inch melted, which is a miniscule change. That’s if I even do it.

  58. I am up in SNH and had the chance to catch some Boston TV weather. It was interesting….

    PWATs aren’t high, low level southerly jet is not particularly strong, the dendritic growth zone is up high, too high to intersect with the upward vertical motion being generated or the best omega. So where is the precip, heavy snowfall rates and the more robust modeled accumulations coming from?

    I will take the low end of the ranges.

    1. Except the ones that didn’t expect double what is actually going to occur in most of the region. 😉

    1. It’s displaying its difficulty with these types of systems. I was hoping it would iron it out this time.

        1. Well I have the idea of a 1 or 2 inch snowfall for a lot of that area. Will re-evaluate after I see the full 00z guidance set and study some radar.

  66. Radar “says” nice snow over CT. Surface obs say cloudy with patchy light snow. Wonder why. 😉

  67. I feel like this event so far is playing out exactly as TK and myself have been thinking, and yet right up to the start of the event the models are going even further away from our ideas. The subsidence is clearly having an impact. The anticyclonic curvature and associated very strong mid-level winds are helping to shear apart the precip shield. So I think we’ve pretty much nailed that. If we bust, it’s going to be because a new precip shield develops after midnight as low pressure redevelops off the coast. And that may very well happen. It’s going to have to happen fast though once the window opens in a couple hours. I still have a hard time believing the heavy snow will extend as far north as the models show, and I also believe they’re all hanging onto accumulating snow too long tomorrow.

    If I had to give a last minute number for Boston… 2″. A little more than I thought this morning, but still well below most current forecasts. A 2-5″ band possible over central CT/RI and interior southeastern MA. If the wrap-around really gets cranking late tonight and tomorrow morning, maybe someone in southeast MA sees 6″. I’m really interested in how this plays out though. I do worry I missed the boat on the coastal redevelopment becoming such a dominant process with this event and leading to a last minute blossoming of the snow shield. But if it’s just a little late, the high number forecasts will bust hard themselves.

    1. As a complete layman – I just have to say it is such an incredible privilege to be welcomed in this high level group and to be able to now at least begin to understand the factors going into, and nuances involved in, weather forecasting. And thank you for explaining it in such a clear way. Because of this group I can actually speak semi-knowledgeably about a science that I have no natural ability to learn academically. (I was not graced with ability in the hard sciences – that’s for sure!)

  69. Moderate snow Coventry CT and 27 degrees. Everything is covered.

    My son and I went hiking at Mount Monadnock in SW NH today. What a day. Sunny, temps in the 20’s and no wind. 80 mile visibility at the top! Clearly saw Mount Snow and Okemo VT to the west, the white summit of Washington well to the north, and the Boston skyline to the southeast. I’ll post some pictures tomorrow. Trail had up to 4” of compacted snow and a lot of ice on the rocks in spots. But had the micro spikes on the whole way so had no problems.

  71. Heavy snow now here. Looks like we are in the heart of the heavy snow band for the next few hours which should be good for a few inches. But radar further west looks ragged. It’s going to have to start filling in soon if we are going to get up into the 4-5” range.

      1. Yikes. Huge is right. And perhaps I’m reading the radar incorrectly but edge seems to be along CT western border.

  74. Just looked out and it’s Been snowing long enough for a dusting in Sutton but for once something else took priority. What a special tribute to Elvis.

  75. Mark it looks like that heavier band starts just a few miles south of you and ends about 10 miles north of me moving west to east. We should be in that band for a few hours. We’re in the sweet spot so far. Will include Vicki in there also.

    1. As I said earlier, most of the city’s accumulation will occur between midnight and 6AM, so the pre-treatment was good.

        1. I think that’s a reasonable assessment. I think the first part of the system produces a nice burst and the rest of it is a general failure with minor production.

            1. It’s a possibility but so far I don’t see hard signs of it taking place. The energy to the south is flying east so there will have to be some back-filling. Plenty of time I suppose.

  77. I hope for your sake it’s not too bad in the am vicki. I know my kids went to bed excited for tomorrow’s snow since they are on vacation and dad has the day off also with them, Should be fun!! 🙂

  80. Snowing moderately in Westwood. Based on radar, we likely remain in that band for the next several hours. Could be a few inches from like southward.

        1. We often see this type of thing when you have a system that wants to be somewhat potent fighting dry air. You have pretty distinctive differences from nothing to a good swath to nothing.

              1. That would frustrate me to say the least. I think after this first ripple, accumulations will generally be insignificant. The bulk of accumulations occurs over the next few hours. Redevelopment looks to occur to late and east IMO. Nuisance snow for the remainder of tomorrow morning.

  86. I’m catching a flight tomorrow morning to CA. We leave Harvard for Logan around 5:30 – really hoping the moderate / heavy makes a quick departure!

      1. Thanks TK. Needless to say I am a huge fan of your forecast for tonight. I’m hoping your cheeriness has been a result of things unfolding thus far as you expected – fingers crossed!

        1. Well, they are unfolding interestingly, at least partially as expected. These systems with both a mix of positive & negative support factors are like kittens. You can get a play bite, a big scratch, or a cuddly purr, and you never quite know what it’s going to be until it happens. 😉

  87. A steady light to moderate snow here since around 11pm. Have a little over an inch here in my area of Hingham. Roads are covered…not a sander to be seen.

  89. 1.6” so far in Coventry, CT. Snowing moderately again. 25 degrees. Radar seems to be filling in nicely again to our SW. So far would appear on track to get at least into the low end of the NWS 3-6” range for northern CT.

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