Wednesday Forecast

144 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
This 5-day period will feature the passage of 2 storm systems, the first of which being in a cold enough environment so about half the precipitation, on average, could fall in the frozen or freezing form, starting as snow, going over to sleet and freezing rain, and ending as rain, but for some interior locations that change to plain rain may be hard to complete due to colder air locked in at the surface. This particular storm system will feature a somewhat weaker primary low and slightly more pronounced secondary low tracking near or just south of SNE allowing colder air to stay a little more locked in, but this is still going to be a fairly benign system overall with no major impact from either snow accumulation or icing, beyond the usual slick travel on untreated surfaces. We may see a little more of an issue due to high tides along the coast even with a modest onshore wind during the first half of the storm on east-facing shores, and in Cape Cod Bay Thursday as winds will have turned to westerly, due to the astronomical high tides with the moon just passed full and at perigee. Beyond this, a dry day for Friday as high pressure moves in and dry weather through most of Saturday as high pressure starts to retreat. Next storm system tracks west of New England and results in milder air being more easily able to move in, so it may start as a mix late Saturday night then turn into a rain event for the bulk of Sunday. Drier air may start to work in toward the end of the day on Sunday if the storm system is moving along quickly enough.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arriving southwest to northeast, accumulating up to 1 inch south of I-90 and 1-2 inches to the north before changing to sleet and freezing rain. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast morning with freezing rain and rain ending. Icy untreated surfaces. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH early, NW 10-20 MPH later.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Icy untreated surfaces. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Mix to rain late at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain likely, ending late. Temperatures rise into the 40s through the day and fall back to the 30s at night.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Colder/dry early next week with windy conditions February 25 and more tranquil February 26. Watching the period February 27-28 for possible unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow) but no solid indications of a major storm. Fair weather follows for the end of this period which is also the beginning of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Will watch the March 2-3 period of a potential storm threat. Another may threaten late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

144 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. My favorite part of this particular season is watching people get excited about forecast models that show three feet of snow that then disappear the next day lol

    1. It’s fun following what could be knowing it probably won’t be in the long run. As they say. Anticipation is half the joy.

      1. Oh I get why people enjoy it. But my joy comes from seeing snow lovers hopes dashed because I loathe snow. When something calls for two feet plus of snow – I cross my fingers and my toes that it disappears. lol

      1. Even though you know what will happen – it’s like seeing a tiny glimmer of light getting snuffed out each time. lmao

  4. Hey Tk do we have a start time for the snow in Boston as I’m hearing 7, 10 etc . And also what time around ( if you know will it go to straight rain and plan on c-1 medical area .

  11. To answer the above questions…
    Boston start time between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m.
    Boston change over time approximately 1 a.m.
    Boston accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    I have noticed on models that a large area of cold – perhaps people want to call it a polar vortex though I really dislike that term – will be close to if not intruding upon Southern New England. Almost parked there for a bit, from the end of this month through the first week of March (perhaps longer, I don’t know). This extended period of having a persistent high pressure area to our north has not been a theme thus far this winter. Thus far, every cold period has been short-lived. And every time the high has sunk south and east, hence talk of a persistent southeast ridge. If indeed the models pan out, I do think snow chances increase significantly. Note, I’m not saying necessarily big storms, but storms that take the more `traditional’ route of snowstorms for SNE.

    As for Dr. S’s schadenfreude – “my joy comes from seeing snow lovers hopes dashed because I loathe snow” – I do understand it from your perspective of being a snow hater. But I will return the favor should big snows occur.

    1. I have not heard the term schadenfreude in ages and literally cannot stop laughing. Well played, Joshua….well played indeed.

    2. I don’t mind the term polar vortex at all because it’s been used in meteorology for a long time. What I did not like was the way the media got hold of it and turned it into something it is not.

      1. I would be curious if old timers like Don Kent had ever heard of the term. I myself never heard of it until very recently.

      2. they tend to do that, hell even my interview on living on earth got twisted because they cherry picked what I said.

  13. For probably the first time since I moved here, outside of the snow squall day, genuine +SN falling today in south-central NJ. We average considerably less snow than most of SNE, but this has been a quiet winter here as well. We’ll pick up 3-5″ today.

    The snow map for this storm will be kind of funny looking. Solid totals in the mid-Atlantic, a gap over most of SNE, but decent totals up north as well. It’s a very similar storm structure to what we saw last week, but a weaker primary low (so weaker warm advection) and a colder, more southward high is allowing more snow down here before the changeover.

  15. The 12z GFS had some major upper air changes for the middle of next week compared to previous runs. There’s definitely some interesting potential on the table ~2/27-3/5, but we won’t know details for quite awhile. We’ve also got what looks like a very powerful Lakes cutter occurring before any of this, this weekend. So I never feel too comfortable with longer range model solutions when you’ve got an earlier storm introducing a lot of uncertainty.

  20. 12z Euro may have lost next Wednesday but now it’s working up some shenanigans for 3/2:

    https://imgur.com/a/iPm12HA

    These things are going to come and go on the models from run to run but at least the pattern the next couple weeks looks better to support some snow threats. Not perfect by any means, but better than it’s been.

  21. SNOWING above us right now. Not making it to the ground. Why?
    well dew point here on the ground is 12. Wonder what it is a few thousand feet up?

    Here is radar at 3.35 degree elevation showing echos above us.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N3R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25844875&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  22. A few pathetic looking flakes now hitting the ground in Manchester CT. The intensity is so light it would be a stretch to even call them flurries.

  25. Don’t like the icing some of these short range models are showing for my area.
    I have seen more ice accretion maps this winter than snowfall maps.

          1. Yes, the same AccuW that just told me my snow would stop falling in 89 minutes. Of course, my snow is about 3 or 4 hours away from starting, but hey, that’s nit-picking. 😛

              1. Thanks. Looks like a total
                nuisance is all for tonight.

                HRRR is showing about 0.37 inch qpf for the whole event. 😀

                1. That sounds pretty close for precip. There will be some slick going on untreated surfaces though. It won’t take much.

  30. 12z EPS fairly cold/stormy for the beginning of March….there is support for snow threats Mar 1-2 and again on Mar 4-5. Still a weak signal for something middle of next week but nothing like what the yesterday’s 12z operational was showing.

  31. I do not think my area sees any plain rain here in Billerica, I feel like it only gets to freezing rain when it.

  32. According to Eric, the air is just too dry. DPs in the single digits regionwide. The nearest snow is SW CT/NYC.

  33. Sunday night-Monday look pretty interesting if this coming Lakes cutter ends up as strong as it looks like it might. There’s some snow squall potential especially up north, but more concerning is the wind potential. We’ll likely mix to at least 800mb, and winds up there will be in the 60kt range. Would certainly support surface gusts in the 50-60mph range. It’ll hinge on the strength of that low though. If you put a 975mb low over the Great Lakes, that’s gonna leave a mark. If it ends up weaker and tries to form a coastal low, lower impact.

    1. Agree here. I was just looking at this. Reminds me a little (looking ahead) of that significant wind event we had not that long ago.

    1. He’s referencing the pattern that WxW and I have already alluded to. Better wording would be: The pattern may become more conducive to colder events at the end of Feb & beginning of March.

  35. Snowing picking up where I am in the last 45 minutes.
    TK are you referring to the wind event we had back in February 2016? What a night that was with multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and a bunch of wind damage reports across SNE. This was night time event.

    1. Nope, more like the strong winds behind a storm system we had a couple weeks ago. This would be several hours of powerful wind gusts from the west on Monday.

  39. Well first batch in Milford and through Uxbridge and lighter in Sutton at 5:30

    But not snow. What is grauple again? Well, that’s what I’m calling it……. sticks and crunches right away.

    1. Snow grains most likely. We don’t have the right atmospheric profile for dendrites so we’ll probably get snow grains. This, along with dry air, will probably keep accumulations down slightly.

          1. No. Dana has several satellite locations. Mac was in Boston to start but then his doctor was at Dana in Milford.

            1. His radiation oncologist was at the MGH satellite at newton wellesley. She was literally an angel on earth. She in Boston now but still keeps in touch.

  40. Bruins trade Donato bad , bad move. He will do what all the others have done be a great player . Impatience trade is what this was .

    1. Good move. We’re getting a player who is good now, and we have about 4 or 5 in Providence who have just as much if not more potential than Donato. This trade will help the Bruins and help him personally. We can’t hold onto everyone.

      1. We agree to disagree. The bruins want to win the cup this year & I just don’t think that’s happening they will no get past Washington & Tampa bay not this year .

        1. Donato was not going to help them win a cup this year. Take a look at his #’s when he is suited up for the B’s.

          I don’t think they will make a serious run even with this trade but it does improve the team. If this was last year, I’d have a little different opinion regarding giving up Donato. He has done a whole lot of not much this year.

          1. Of course he wasn’t . The kid needs a little bit more time and a patient team I just think they should have held on to him . Oh well time to leave for work again .

            1. Don’t get me wrong I like Donato. But I think this is the right move for now. Who knows, maybe he’ll find his way back to the B’s eventually. It’s happened before.

  41. I will be rooting for Tampa Bay in the playoffs to win it all as it looks like my Rangers are not going to get in. Two reasons I am rooting for them a lot of former Rangers on Tampa Bay or some us call it Rangers south and if Tampa Bay wins the Cup from the trades the Rangers and Lightning made last year the Rangers will get another first round pick.

  42. What was frustrating with the Rangers was there was a lot of winning for a good part of this decade yet no Stanley Cup. It is like the New York Knicks of 90s a lot of winning but no championship.

  46. No more snow here. Now into the freezing rain. Starting to see a glaze on the snow on the grass and the pavement.

  51. Is this running into dry air or is it expected to pickup . It’s barely snowing this end of the city.

  52. 2 things that are most apparent…

    Dry air has played a role in things getting going.
    Dry air has also allowed it to stay colder a little bit longer.
    Net result, no real change to the forecast, maybe a touch slower in the evolution and maybe a longer period of sleet. This could cut back on the exact accumulation amounts but when we are talking several tenths of an inch of snow/sleet, it really doesn’t make much of a difference in the result of the event. Most locations are going to see the predicted amounts verify.

  54. Good morning. have not been out. street plowed. eye ball test says 2-3inches. will measure soon. still below freezing here at 31.5.

  56. 31F in Back Bay. I haven’t been out but my guess is this little storm has had a sizable impact in terms of icy roads, sidewalks.

    I’m trying to interpret models as best I can. What I’m seeing next week and beyond looks like a winter comeback. I had stated last week that winter’s going out with a whimper. Well, that doesn’t look like it if I’m reading the models correctly and they verify to some degree.

    1. Had a big impact . It came in late but she packed a punch when she arrived. Another tough storm .

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