Friday Forecast

71 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
High pressure moves in today and hangs on Saturday with 2 fairly nice late winter days. Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes Sunday spreading a large precipitation shield into the region, just about all of it in the form of rain, though there may be some snow/sleet at the start later Saturday night, especially over interior areas. This storm will be very large and fairly powerful as it exits via eastern Canada Monday, and the pressure gradient between it and high pressure approaching from the west will get the winds roaring in the region during Monday, but with dry weather. That low will be so broad in scope that its influence will still be with us through Tuesday with more cold and a gusty breeze.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives, may start as snow/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early, then rising slowly overnight. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
This will be a colder than average period and we’ll also be vulnerable for potential unsettled weather. Trend for the first potential is for a minor system with snow showers around February 27. Pattern will be “loaded for Lion” for the entry of the month of March, but not sure yet if the lion will just growl (a couple systems that never get together and leave us in between) or launch an all-out attack (systems combine into a larger storm to impact the region).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail.

71 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Had a couple incorrect lines in there and a type, fixed everything. Was blogging during an a-fib episode. Lack of oxygen to the brain HAHAHA! Heart’s normal now. 🙂

  7. Models will continue to struggle with the puzzle pieces for next week’s system won’t really have any idea about it till probably Monday. Current euro tries and fails

  8. Chs. 4, 10, 25 = midweek snow
    Chs. 5, 7 = cold, dry midweek
    Ch. 10 = stormy next weekend

    At least no more Cutters for awhile after Sunday.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Looking at the models, it would appear we have the potential for sustained winds 25-35 mph on Monday with gusts 50-60 mph. Highest winds in the usual areas – coast and higher terrain. At face value it would seem that this is nothing we haven’t seen before with typical coastal storms but the difference here is that this will be a very prolonged wind event. Ramping up Sunday night, consistent high winds all day Monday, and ramping down Tuesday. That could potentially result in more widespread damage.

          1. No it’s something Florida police have him doing on camera it’s on the news there is a warrant to be issued for his arrest

            1. You bet. I watched the whole video with the police.
              At this point he is charged with a misdemeanor and since he is not
              a Florida resident, an arrest warrant will be issued for him.

              Geez, with all of his money, WHY????????????????????

              1. He’s lonely, his wife passed away and needed a release.

                What does his money have to do with it? Maybe he could have afforded a better place? Not sure what that would even mean.

  16. Wind event Sunday-Monday continues to look impressive. Widespread gusts to 50mph+ looking more likely in SNE. Even stronger out towards Buffalo, where wind gusts to hurricane force are forecast!

    The 12z GFS illustrates what I think the main challenge will be in getting a coastal storm around here next weekend, and that is dislodging the Southeast Ridge. Without much of a ridge build in the West (result of a stagnant Pacific pattern and continued neutral to negative PNA), it’s going to be tough to get deeper troughing in the East. I could see a continuation of the pattern of cutters if we see phasing, or else split flow. But it’s still very early, and that’s just some speculation based on the most recent data. Multi-cycle trends will be more meaningful.

      1. That is very likely a split flow scenario, but the northern stream piece will have to be watched for a minor snow/mix event.

    1. Wouldn’t tale too much to get that up here, but then it wouldn’t take much
      to suppress it even more. 😀

  18. Press is making a big deal out of it . No need to run with the story all day. Report it press & move on end of story .

    1. Ok, that’s how you feel and that is fine. Others may feel differently. We can certainly move on here. IF only there
      were some exciting weather….NOT!

  19. As usual, JPD….you and I are on the same page. Losing a spouse and being lonely is absolutely no excuse. I can’t imagine dishonoring a spouse no longer with you in this way. But that’s me.

  20. This is an exciting day to be a weather geek. I love trying to figure out how this pattern is going to break and transition, or will it literally only break briefly and transition back to the same pattern we’re in now? That’s also on the table.

  21. You know it will either STAY as it is, OR at least revert back very quickly. You can
    bet on it. 😀 But that is with No Meteorological input whatsoever. It’s just from
    Pessimistic old me.

    1. Alot of this hinges on PNA but most of it on MJO. We got MJO into phase 8 and it looks like it wants to traverse 1 & 2 but it doesn’t look pronounced. This was the same thing that lead to the models trying to forecast pattern changes that just never materialized. I finally gave up on the cold/dry trend because without the help from MJO and PNA it wasn’t going to get established. It still wants to, but is repeatedly thwarted. We will get somewhat colder, to start with, anyway. But those same factors that added lots of uncertainty will remain somewhat similar.

      1. Thanks/. We’re running out of time. It would be nice to get
        all of the players together just once before we run out of time.
        AND I would prefer it in Feb or Mar and NOT Apr or May. 😀

  22. The guy is getting accused of getting a happy ending……. Big deal.

    Mr. Kraft has done more for our community as whole than most have. This summer, he drives down to the Weymouth Police Station to console the officers who’s colleague/friend was just murdered hours ago. I’m sure you can easily find many many more examples of Mr Kraft’s generosity and caring for other men and women across this state / country. We all have make a bad decision in our lives, including you Dave / Vicki. It does not all ways define us as a person. Life is a long time.

    I wish I knew he liked happy endings, I would have bought him one. God knows he has given me 6.

        1. no I started loosing respect for Kraft since 2012, I believe the majority of what he does thats good was because of his wife and wanting to paint a good image. I bet Mrs Kraft is turning has been turning in her grave.

  25. High Wind Watches to the west of SNE. Would not be surprised tomorrow if wind alerts are issued in SNE for Sunday night into Monday.

  26. Thank you, TK.

    With talk of snow in Pasadena and Malibu I wonder how San Diego fared. I know the city is further south, but from the radar loop it looked like there was a lot of rain in the vicinity with some snow due northeast of San Diego.

    Certainly an active pattern as we gear up for another precipitation event that will followed by some gale force wind gusts at times for some of us for about a 36 hour stretch. Then colder air moves in but it doesn’t look to be dry and cold as yet another weak system approaches on Wednesday. And yes a few days later another. Keeps us on our toes.

        1. Yes, I saw that Vicki. Thanks.

          Southern California is not known for its snowfall, though the interior and the mountainous regions of Northern California are often very, very snowy. Ever been to Strawberry, California? They can get staggering amounts of snow.

          1. The San Gabrial mts just East of La rise to 10,000 ft + and often are draped in snow. San Bernadino mts se of La at about 9,000 feet also share in the snow. But near sea level in La itself, snow is quite rare.

              1. Will do. Thanks!

                In my post above I should have added that indeed the mountains in Southern Cal do get snow.

        2. My wife knows somebody in California & she showed me a picture of a decent amount of snow on the persons deck . I’m not sure when it was but it was I assume in the last week or so

  27. According to Eric, anomolous cold for the next two weeks. He is also the only met with snow next week, late Wed/early Thurs.

    2. Yup,

      My son has a friend that lives in Santa Monica, California and while visiting out
      there a few years ago, captured several photos like the one above.
      Pretty awesome!

  30. No more snow for Boston for the rest of February according to Barry. I guess the midweek event has gone POOF! 🙁

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