Summer Stretch Now, Fall Feel Soon

74 Comments

4:45PM

The 3-day stretch of summery weather continued today, with one more to go, thanks to high pressure offshore and a southwesterly flow of air. Late this week, we’ll have the feel of Fall, as high pressure builds out of Canada and sends a much cooler air mass into the region. Transition day on Thursday will be marked by showers as a cold front slowly crosses the region. Much of the shower activity will occur behind the front this time. I’m not expected an outbreak of thunderstorms ahead of the front, just a slight chance of a few pop up storms Wednesday afternoon mainly far to the west of the Boston area.

Latest Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 81-86. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 64-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. High 72-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 61.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 63.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 65.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 67.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 51. High 69.

74 thoughts on “Summer Stretch Now, Fall Feel Soon”

  1. We r afraid of change,,, but I’m not 🙂 cooler weather ahead, rip down Fenway and build a bigger better Fenway

  2. No no no. I love the memories I have of Fenway. Of Williams and Yaz and the time they stood outside the locker room and signed autographs without expecting to be paid. Of the roar when Williams broke 400 or hit a home run last time at bat. Baseball will never be like that again. I think we are more afraid to know our future may not be as great as some of our past 🙂 🙂

    1. Baseball players do not like to sign autographs today, unlike the patriots. And tip your hat to the bruins for all that they are doing for there fans. I do not think todays baseball players go out of there way for fans. And all the money that they make, they get a hangnail and can’t play.

      1. You are right John. It was never that way. They’d all shower and then appear outside the Fenway locker room. And they’d play no matter what was wrong with them. I have friends and family that come from all over the world and Fenway is top on their list of stops.

          1. Lol if I had my way I’d rip down the eye soars like the Boston globe building, can someone reface it or something. I can’t wait for the cooler weather, have a great day everyone:)

      2. While I am rolling the pats and bruins just so much better. Hockey players playing with groin injurys, football defensive
        guys playing in casts and so on. I like the sox. But you see way more pats and bruins showing up at my work than sox players, and fenway park is walking distance from work.

    3. I also hate when my friends come into town from different parts of the country and there originally from NE, 1st thing they say is “looks like nothing has changed since I was last here in 2000 except for a few cvs’s built and the occasional car dealership, and we refuse to widen roads for the future and that alone turns businesses and companies away, it’s very sad IMO, have a good day Vicki 🙂

      1. Believe It or not there has been building going on. Take a ride through the longwood medical area where I work, they have been putting them up left and right the last few years. We are adding on a 12 story building now to be compleated 2013.

        1. Yeah there some building but not anything that has a wow factor, I wish we were just a bit more edgy, u know we r a small city when a 30 story skyscraper is headlines in the paper for 2 days, and in other cities same size or smaller cities build 30 story skyscrapers 10 miles outside there city and r happy, I want the best city and I feel like I don’t have that, I like it here but at times it’s just to quiet for me, and I’m a responsible 40yr old w family. Take it easy John I won’t talk about anymore, it’s back to the weather from here on out

  3. Just to continue the sports theme here going to a sporting event has become very expensive for the average person. When you think about a family of four going to a ball game by the you add everything up is close to a $500 day if not more. Its a shame ticket prices are not where they were back in the day because the way it is today you are hurting the fans.

    1. I agree with both you and John. It’s ridiculous what it costs. My son in law takes my grandson to watch the PATS practice a lot and that is a great experience. Each player is required to meet the crowd and sign autographs so many times but they seem to get as big a kick out of it as the fans. And they are wonderful with the kids

  4. To continue with the cost you could go to other ball parks in this country and it way cheaper. People I know when to a Pirates game the tickets were $32.00 each and the seats were the lower level near the first base area. I was shocked when I heard the price. I said to myself you will never sit that close for that price at a ball game in this part of the country whether it be Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, or Citi Field.

  5. This is from Noaa.gov. Should be interesting to see how low the temps actually get. I’m sure there will be a big variation of temperatures based on location. If my area was in the upper 30’s, Tom’s area could be in the mid 40’s due to his location near the water only a few miles from me.

    FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…

    A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS WILL START FRIDAY OFF AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
    WELL OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PLOW THROUGH NEW
    ENGLAND ON FRIDAY CREATING UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
    WEEKEND. FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY AUTUMN WEATHER CONDITIONS…MAX
    TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S AS 850MB TEMPS
    WILL RANGE FROM 2-5C. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT DRIER AIR…CRISP
    CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR…FOR THAT REASON WE WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW
    TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS BRING THE 850MB 0C TEMP LINE
    QUITE CLOSE WHICH WILL HELP DROP LOW TEMPS TO THE LOWER 40S DOWN TO
    THE MID 30S. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR A FROST ADVISORY TO BE ISSUE…BUT
    FOR NOW WILL WAIT FOR LATER FORECASTS TO ASSETS THIS POTENTIAL.

  7. Thanks for the post and the site for foliage, coastal.

    Channel 7 and 5 are saying afternoon showers tomorrow and 4 is saying chance of showers in the morning and showers and storms in the afternoon. TK, I am not sure from your blog if you are still calling for showers tomorrow morning. Husband and son of course are golfing in the western part of the state so things will happen earlier there. They decided to see what the forecast is this morning and cancel accordingly. Their tee time is 8:30 am so they should be finished by 1:00.

    I know they would appreciate any input. Thank you!

    1. They have decided to wait until the 22nd and try to play then. I haven’t seen a forecast for that far out so we shall see !!

  8. Just looking at the storm prediction center website parts of SNE are in the 5% risk for thunderstorms which is the general thunderstorm.
    Thunderstorm Index is a 1 for any thunderstorms that should develop today or tomorrow with the cold fronts passing through since I don’t expect severe weather.

  10. It is quite here today. I remember that storm as well as the post Christmas blizzard another Noreaster we had back on the 11th and 12 of January, and a norlun trough that setup shop between Danbury and Waterbury CT on the 7th of January that dumped close to a foot and a half of snow in places in just 6 to 7hrs.
    I don’t see a repeat of last winter. First of all this La Nina is going to be weaker than last year. There are other things to look at besides La Nina. Temperatures in October and November. When they are below normal in those two months that tends to lead to colder and snowier winter. When they average above normal that tends to lead to a mild and snowfall below normal. Snow Cover in Siberia is another thing to look at and of course as some do not me The Old Farmers’ and Farmers’ Almanac. Both are saying we are going to have a major snow event. The Old Farmers is saying we will have one at the end of January and The Farmers’ Almanac says we will have one between the 20th and 23rd of February. The Farmers’ Almanac is also calling for a mild winter with more mix and rain events.

  11. What another beautiful day. Why can’t they all be like this?

    Finally fixed my home computer. Had to restore it to a date in August. That did the trick.

    Enjoy!

  14. I just saw the CPC outlooks. Both show above normal precipitation. The 6-10 day outlook calls for above normal temps while the 8-14 day outlook calls for below normal temps. So for the summer fans after this fall preview you might just get one last gasp from summer before we slam the door on it and look forward to fall foliage and tracking snowstorms!

  16. As we look north, we can see some of those cumulus clouds that are developing into showers and thundershowers ? around the Boston area…..

    I am so looking forward to this cold front. Three successive days of 80 plus weather with relatively mild nights have made the inside of our school quite warm. Come on 60s and chilly nights !

    1. Wow….37F in International Falls, 44F in Duluth and 57F in Chicago….that looks good.

      Truly was a summer day today with mid 80s and mid 60s dew points. The cumulus clouds towered on the northwest horizon and they had that light pink coloring that comes with all the haze…Come to think of it, the sun was bright red right after sunset this morning. Looking forward to the temp drops after sunset Friday evening.

  18. There are still 3 or 4 beautifully tall cumulus clouds on the north and northwestern horizon, now being illuminated by the setting sun on their western sides. They are glowing pink. Wonder if another shower may pop and follow the path of the ones a few hours ago.

  19. No storms here but I’m ready for fall. I have enjoyed summer and I really don’t complain about the heat but I have to confess. I thought today was too hot and humid. I suspect because I am for fall and even snow !!

  20. One thing good about September when there is heat and humidity it does not last for days and days. I am not surprised this happened because to me just like winter summer never goes quietly and you always have that one last blast of heat and humidity before summer loses the battle to fall.

  21. I can hardly wait for that cold front to come through late tomorrow afternoon/evening. It’s too bad though that the nice, refreshing, fall-like air is going to be relatively short lived…80+ degree temps will return sometime next week just in time for the “autumnal equinox” on the 23rd, lol.

    I suspect that we will still have occasional “warm-ups” every now and then until Columbus Day. “Our” time is coming eventually. 🙂

  22. Does anyone know the results of the “Best Blogger” contest? The winner was supposed to be announced today!

    Win or lose, TK has produced an excellent blog to discuss weather! 🙂

  23. Today’s temps should/could be fascinating. I notice that both Blue Hill and Worcester have southerly winds this morning and are in the mid 60s. The infrared satellite picture makes it look like a few to several hours of sun are possible. I wonder if eastern sections manage to sneak into the low 80s one more time and sometime mid to late afternoon, the temps plunge 20 plus degrees within an hour or two…..Have a good day all !!

  25. We had a noisy thunderstorm roll through Worcester around 2:00am. The lightning was pretty fabulous. As I stood by the window and watched I couldn’t help but think it was perhaps the last good t-storm of the summer.

    This weekend looks absolutely perfect for apple picking! Does anyone recommend a particular orchard? I usually go to Tougas Farm in Northborough but I’m open to other suggestions. 🙂

    1. Hi, Christie, we have gone to Honey Pot Hill in Stow, MA. It is on Sudbury Rd., off of Rte. 62. We’re planning on going either this wknd. or nxt. wknd. It’s a fun place for young and old w/all types of things going on at times.

  26. I think it is official – Congrats, TK! You won the People’s vote for Local Affairs! You deserve it – you should have won Editor’s Choice, too, in my opinion.

    My computer is ok – for the time being. The CMOS battery was shot – according to my husband (I am not familiar w/that stuff).

    Looking forward to Fall, for sure. Starting to see some of the trees change – mostly yellow in the leaves.

  28. Congrats TK!
    Area of rain continues to push eastward and when that front comes through it is going to be a shock to the system going from summer to a taste of fall. Thunderstorm Index just at a 1 since I don’t expect severe weather.

  29. Congrats TK!!!

    Nice downpour late yesterday, just when I was walking from the office to the car!
    Figures!

    We’ll see what happens today.

  30. From the SSPC:

    A NARROW ZONE OF OVERLAP IN THE PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY
    /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ AND THE SERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
    MIDLEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/MARGINAL
    SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON…WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
    ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. RATHER MODEST
    INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL REMAIN TOO
    MARGINAL FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AREA.

    So, it could possibly get interesting here a bit later.

    1. So far Old Salty more in the way of rain than thunderstorm activity out to the west. I am not going to rule out places in SNE
      getting a thunderstorm but I don’t see any severe weather. The bigger story is the drop in temperature once this cold front
      comes through.

      1. JJ,

        Thanks for your thoughts. Sun’s out here. Just wondering if
        it will stir the pot??

        Probably not, as you say.

  34. Joe Joyce, at noontime, called for showers in eastern MA late afternoon /early evening. Might be a shower or two at game time for the Sox (they need a win!). Thunderstorms maybe in western MA, RI, & CT. Joe also called for temps to average below normal for the rest of the month.

  37. Back on my husband’s laptop. 🙁 Husband is going to try and fix it again. I don’t really want to buy a new computer.

    Old Salty – yes, the radar does look like July. Here in Sudbury wind picked up awhile ago and I could feel the temp. drop outside. We had some thunder earlier and some rain.

    But one thing are the clouds and the sky – very beautiful. Kind of like summer’s last gasp, ‘though I guess we could still get some more summer weather before Fall really sets in.

    1. Hi Rainshine…if your computer is 5 or more years old, you probably need a new laptop. Based on personal experience, any device that needs constant repair means it is high time to get a new one. I purchased mine in 2008 and am keeping my fingers crossed to get at least a couple more good years out of it.

      I am also curious as to what the “average” lifespan of a laptop assuming it is properly taken care of….anyone?

      1. Hi, Philip – my computer is a desktop. I bought it in 2004. Yeah, I know – time for a new computer.

        I also asked my husband (he was a senior field service technician for Reuters before he retired). He says a laptop that is well taken care of should last about 4 – 5 years – maybe longer. His laptop,which I am using now was purchased in 2008, also. It’s working good now, ‘though my husband has taken it apart to fix it a few times.

  38. Hi Jimmy…..did you see Brett Anderson’s blog today? It mentions his interpretation of the EURO’s 2011/12 Winter Outlook which looks quite similar to your thoughts if I am not mistaken.

    It is still going to take more time for me to decide whether to go with “near” normal snowfall or “above” normal snowfall. If I decide for above normal, I really doubt we will see anywhere near last year’s totals, but…we will see. It will be interesting what mets say in October when many of their final thoughts come out.

  39. Hey Philip…. I just saw Brett Anderson’s blog. My initial thoughts for the winter were near to slightly above normal in the temperature and snowfall department with no more than 50 inches of snow for Boston. Keep in my mind this model correctly predicted where the worst of the heat for the summer would be. As a snowlover I did not like what I read but there is still time for this to change. One thing for sure we will not have a repeat of last winter.

  41. Congrats TK !!

    Wow, our northwest horizon is turning dark !!! Tremendous towering cumulus clouds everywhere, with a line of them coming together. Can see the rain falling from them in the distance and the ride home had the radio crackling with what must be lightning…Not surprised this line is popping, we had full sunshine all morning, it got quite warm and its tropically humid !!

    1. thanks Old Salty…nice radar shot…..We’re getting an outflow boundary wind all of a sudden as I type, we are gusting over 30mph from the north and it continues to get darker.

  43. Siberian snow cover is just one thing to look at when putting a winter forecast. As I said yesterday the things I look at October and November temperatures. When the average below normal that tends to lead to colder and snowier winter and when the average above normal that tends to lead to above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall. Another thing to look at is how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. The more active it is that tends to lead to a colder winter according to Joe Bastardi.
    Then of course for a good laguh you could look at both the Farmers and Old Farmers’ for a laugh. The Farmers’ Almanac is similar to the latest EURO model in Brett Anderson’s blog calling for above normal temperatures. They differ on precipitation where the EURO says drier than normal and the Almanac calling for wet and stormy conditions with a lot of mix and rain events although there could be some potent coastal storms in February.

  45. Exactly Old Salty its a crap shoot. I have noticed a few things in common looking at the upcoming winter. It does not look like a particularly cold winter with temperatures at or slightly above normal and less snow than last winter.

  46. Today’s 14-day CPC outlook is calling for normal to eventually “below” normal temps late in the month, but it is somewhat disturbing that above normall rainfall is in store for the entire period…where is the rain going to be coming from?

    With the tropics now quiet, I doubt any precip coming from there…coastal storms already?? 🙁

    1. well, the 12Z GFS doesn’t show much. One system running to the North.
      Later, a system coming up inland from the South, with not an overwhelming
      amount of precip. In Short, the GFS doesn’t show it.

      The 12Z Euro shows a coastal system on the 25th, so Perhaps that is
      what they were looking at?

      I don’t know, that’s for sure.

  49. Longshot:

    Berlin… 17 Sep: Sunshine, clouds late, high 70. 18 Sep: Lots of clouds, periods of showers, high 60. 19 Sep: May start cloudy with a shower, then clearing, high 65. 20 Sep: Partly cloudy, high 68. 21 Sep: Mostly sunny, high 67. 22 Sep: Mostly sunny, high 65.

    Warsaw/Krakow… The entire period 22 Sep-27 Sep should be dry because it looks like a ridge of high pressure is going to park itself over them. Don’t rule out overnight and early morning fog though! Daily highs in the 70s! Just have to watch for one little front scraping north of the region on 22 Sep which, if strong enough, may send a few showers through the region.

    Budapest… Getting a bit out of sensible forecasting range now but I’ll take a stab at it, based on having some experience forecasting the crop areas around here for many years. I think it will be dry 28-29 Sep, with a shower or thunderstorm threat toward the last day 30 Sep as you’ll be between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west. This region should be warm, mid to upper 70s each day, maybe even touching 80, which would be about a dozen degrees above normal.

    Prague… 1-3 Oct. You know that it can’t stay nice forever over there! Longer term trends hint at broad low pressure drifting east with showery weather for those days. But sometimes these systems verify further west. If that happens, it would be warmer than normal with isolated showers. I’d plan for the more unsettled, cooler scenario for now.

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