Tuesday Forecast

108 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
If you didn’t blow away yesterday and are still here to read this, you made it through the big wind event, or were not around the area for it. Quite the event I won’t dwell on here as we’ve all pretty much read the stories or seen the pictures / video. I even had my own experience with a fairly near-miss with a portion of a tree coming down on the road I was heading toward. We’re actually not quite done with the event, as there will still be some wind gusts today that would be considered quite a windy day, but much weaker than yesterday’s. This continues to be in response to the large pressure gradient between the big high pressure area from central Canada to the upper Midwest and a broad and powerful low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes. But by late today this gradient finally relaxes enough to put an end to this event, leaving us with a decent cold air mass which will send many temperatures below 10 for the early hours of Wednesday, and set us up with plenty of cold to assure the next system will be a snow-producer. This will be the result of a clipper low pressure area from Canada coming across the Great Lakes and heading just south of New England by early Thursday. This late Wednesday night / Thursday morning snow event will be minor, in terms of snow amounts, but will be timed to cause some issues with the Thursday morning commute. The system will be fighting dry air, and that along with its quick movement and somewhat limited moisture will keep most snow amounts under 4 inches, but 4 will be upper limit of my range as I think it can possibly be reached, especially in southeastern MA where a period of onshore wind during and even after the main precipitation shield passes can add a tad to the totals. Either way, later Thursday, it’s all gone, but we don’t get too much of a breather as the active pattern rolls on, and we’ll have a rain/snow shower threat Friday from a passing disturbance and another low pressure which tracks into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and spawns a secondary just southwest of New England which then travels over the region, bringing milder air and a mainly rain event.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-32. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east late evening and continues overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy start with lingering snow especially southeastern MA, total accumulation 2-4 inches though may be just 1-2 inches far northeastern MA and southern NH, and best chance of 4-inch amounts in southeastern MA. Becoming partly sunny midday and afternoon but still a passing snow shower possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Early sun then clouding up. PM rain. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)
Departing low pressure brings, wind, colder air, and a risk of a few snow showers March 3. Disturbance brings clouds and a risk of a few snow showers March 4. Dry and chilly March 5. Another low pressure area threatens with rain/mix/snow March 6 and/or 7.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)
The weather pattern will continue to allow colder air to dominate and a risk of 1 or 2 mix/snow events during this period.

108 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. These are all basically the same now (minor differences which make pretty much no difference in impact). As JMA said on the previous blog, a 0.10 inch lower precip amount can basically cut snow in half. Of course 0.10 inch more (which is less likely) would obviously add. I think if that happens it’s a slightly enhanced area in southeastern MA. But that’s pretty much nit-picking when it comes to snow amounts. Bottom line, light snowfall, but timing is such to impact Thursday’s AM commute to some degree.

    1. 10:36PM 😉

      Actually I’m not sure. Between 8 and midnight is my best guess. Depends on the snow’s ability to eat at dry air.

  7. Heard on twitter the FV3 Continues to have issues and will be delayed again until they fix issues with low level cold bias / snowfall bias.

        1. Ha! Send in a report to the developers of the reasons for your warm bias and they can try to add it in to the FV3.

    1. it’s not so much whether there is a colder model it said one of the possibilities is that a stronger low tracks just south of New England.

      I regard that as a low possibility and think that if that happens it will be part of a very split system.

    1. Amen coastal, thank you for sharing. This isn’t just a ski industry issue, this is a systemic all-business issue, especially restaurants and retailers. I think there’s someone on here (M.L. maybe?) who owns a small business downtown and has lost business over normal winter weather. I understand it’s ultimately up to the individual to decide whether or not to go out, but when they see hyped up headlines and worst case scenarios being thrown around, they can’t help but to listen and consider it. It truly is an abuse of power IMO by mets and more so the networks/sites they work for.

      “Normal winter weather is treated like a crisis”…..couldn’t have said it better myself.

      1. Nice to see you here Ace, hope all is well!

        Definitely agree with that article as well. Fortunately, this has been less of an issue this year from what I have seen – with fewer cold outbreaks and lost of snow up north, the ski areas in VT have been mobbed each of the times I have been up there.

  14. Tweet below from a forecaster at NWS Boston. This encapsulates my concerns for tomorrow night. As with most storms this winter, I think leaning lower on snow totals is the way to go. Cold air does not mean high snow ratios! Snow ratios are much more determined by temperature, humidity, and lifting aloft. The fact that this snow will be falling at night is a positive, but I’m expecting issues with dry air, and once that is overcome, we’ll still be looking at small snowflakes and moderate at best snowfall rates. Most places should stay under 3″.

    Frank Nocera
    ‏@Nocera5

    New 12z NAM (3km) offering a few red flags regarding #snowfall Wed ngt: 1) very cold/dry airmass w/925 mb only warming to -12C at height of event (06z Thu), 2) snow growth not ideal (not shown) & 3) short duration event = only 0.1-0.3 qpf = 1-3″ snow event for #MA #RI #CT

    2. I share these as well. Hence my lower accumulation for northeastern MA and South NH. If top end of small range is realized it’s going to be because of brief ocean enhancement in SE MA and a little less dry air to fight over eastern CT.

  16. Looks like the 12z GFS and CMC are back to a weak cutter for the weekend with mostly rain showers for us and snow in NNE. 00z Euro does not agree and has a colder solution with the storm passing to our southeast. But once again, this model seems to be an outlier and is struggling mightily in this pattern.

    Regarding early next week…….

    All models signaling a developing east coast storm on Monday.

    12z CMC is a good hit with 6″+ snow
    12z FV3 and 00z Euro are a sideswipe with some accumulating snow
    12z GFS is a near miss offshore.
    12z ICON has the system halfway to Bermuda.

    One thing’s for sure, that system ain’t gonna cut.

    1. Up until now, I didn’t know there was a system of any kind on the maps for Monday. Did this suddenly appear in the last few hours?

      1. It’s been appearing on the models in various forms the past couple days. Initially this was looking more like a Tuesday/Wednesday threat but now seems to be focused a bit earlier.

  20. 12z Euro Snowmap for tomorrow night. 3-4″ most places:

    https://imgur.com/a/4RU1p3m

    12z Euro continues to be a stark contrast from the GFS for the weekend system, popping a coastal storm which passes to our southeast Sat night with some rain/snow for southern CT/RI/SE MA.

    Euro joins camp CMC and is a hit for the Monday coastal storm. Similar snow amounts to the CMC in the 6-8″ range.

  22. Winter Weather Advisories hoisted by the NWS for 2-4″ most places except 3-5″ Litchfield and Berkshire Counties. It appears Eastern MA north of the Pike was excluded from the WWA however forecast point and clicks show 2-4″ in most of these areas as well.

    NWS Snowmaps:
    https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

  25. A lot of Sutton is still out of power. I’m sure that Sutton is not alone. There are a few complaining, but I was quite impressed by the large number of folks who tried to politely explain that the linemen are doing the best they can and to sit back and try to enjoy it.

  26. Had an interesting experience attempting to get our storm door replaced.
    I called Lowe’s as they have a special service where a fee is paid and then
    a tech comes to the house to take all sorts of measurements and then we select
    a door and it is delivered and installed. So lazy me didn’t want to drive to the store,
    so I wanted to pay over the phone with my credit card.

    They tried to run it through twice with it being declined each time.
    IMPOSSIBLE!!!
    So, I called my bank and funny thing, there were NO authorization attempts and of course there was NO hold on the account.
    My wife and I smelled a rat! so I called Lowe’s and spoke to the manager and explained
    what was going on. All he would do was verify that my credit card information
    had been destroyed. Yeah, sure, did he check in the pocket of the service rep
    that said he ran the card through????????????????????????????

    I called the bank back and had them place a hold on the card an issue me a new
    one.

    Now, perhaps there was something wrong with the Lowe’s equipment??? But, if in doubt, SUSPECT FOUL PLAY!!!!!

    We have been through this crap so many times and I can’t even tell you!!!!
    Once with a gas station and 2 other times with a restaurant.

    People SUCK!

    1. Oh wow. I would do exactly what you did.

      I just had a storm door installed by handy husbands in Sutton. He came, took measurements, did the rest and all I have to do is enjoy. Most of the noises in the neighborhood don’t have them. I really enjoy having one.

    2. First mistake was going through Lowe’s for service . Find yourself a skilled carpenter or skilled laborer. Slapping a door in isn’t just that sometimes they can be miserable with the header etc .

    1. 18z GFS puts the focus on a stronger weekend storm, which has trended much closer to the coast. This sends the Monday system way out to sea.

  29. Who will win the battle of the season snowfall between Boston and NY?
    Currently Boston has a half inch lead with 10.5 inches with NY at 10 inches. Boston should increase there lead in the standings with the weak system tomorrow night into Thursday. I think Boston wins this battle but on the baseball field this season I think its a different story when it comes to the AL East.

        2. We were talking about the seasonal snow. I answered that question above. Nothing has changed since. I’ll detail it more on my next update, or perhaps after the 00z short range info is in.

          1. I have no idea what you were talking about I’m just trying to get a more detailed time like you always provide vs a four hour window . Thank you

            1. I don’t provide an exact time until I am confident in doing so. I could tell you what a model says, but that’s a model, and they’re all different, rendering it basically useless except as a range of time, so instead of doing that I’m coming up with a best guest for first flakes, which is currently between 8PM and midnight for Boston. I’m not sure how else I can word it to tell you that I don’t know the detailed time that it is going to start snowing on a certain street in any city. It’s impossible to do 24 hours in advance.

  30. I think the models are especially struggling right now because we have teleconnections working against each other. Most notably, the MJO and the PNA. For basically the first time all winter, the MJO is in our favor for cold/snow. But the -PNA persists with no signs of abating. AO and NAO also strongly positive which favors a progressive pattern, no blocking, and thus very little chance for a “classic” coastal storm/Nor’easter. And the MJO is not going to hang around the cold phases. It’s in a hurry to get out. Some pretty solid cold is on the way over the next couple weeks. Right now I don’t see a lot of snow to go with it, but the cold is there so we do have to watch for threats that don’t show up until they’re close at hand. I also continue to feel that winter in the East will effectively end ~3/10 as we gear up for what should be a warm spring. Tick tock 🙂

  31. The FV3 “Arctic Tundra” GFS appears the most aggressive with snowfall tomorrow night with a 4-6″ band over central SNE. There’s a surprise 😉

    Most of the mesoscale guidance supports my thinking of widespread 1-3″, and I agree with TK that the best chance for locally higher would be in southeast MA, as well as way out west towards the Berkshires. May be a problem for the Thursday AM commute, but it should mostly be winding down by then. Overall a minor event, and a very typical split flow evolution.

      1. There’s actually a greater chance of Boston cancelling than towns to the south because of how the city handles it. They cannot have delayed openings in the city. It’s all or nothing. The suburban areas knowing that things wind down in the early morning would more likely have a delay, especially since this event will be a very easy cleanup.

          1. He said the math teacher had an app on her phone a snow day calculator & it showed a 95% chance at a snow day Thursday lol . I can’t make this —— up

          2. How come they are not allowed to have delays there? Just curious. Haven’t heard of that in any other suburban areas.

            1. Not enough busses . Middle & high school kids get picked up first than the 3 elementary schools .

              1. I remember there was a delay in Pembroke during one of storms last March…the reason I remember is that my wife had to go bring one our friends kids to school late as a favor to her parents.

                1. I think you are right Keith for the big March storm as there was no power and they went with a delayed start

              2. Silver Lake also picks up middle school and high school first and then the elementary schools. So if we have a delay it follows the same schedule 2 hours later. No need for additional busses.

              1. Hmmmm…I was thinking maybe my wife was telling me fibs…but a little research proved her right…last March 8th from Twitter…
                Pembroke Schools
                ‏ @PPSsupt
                8 Mar 2018

                Pembroke Public Schools will have a 2 hour delay today, Thursday 3/8/18. There is no AM kindergarten and no AM preschool.
                3 replies 28 retweets 46 likes

                https://twitter.com/ppssupt?lang=en

  32. Look it guys I’m not making it up I’m almost 100% . Man I feel every time I post I need to follow up with an explanation!!!

    1. I think it was just because it’s unusual to hear of suburban areas these days without delays. I was curious too. Delays are relatively new (in the last 20 years). Not knowing the school system I wasn’t sure if there was an issue that had developed there.

      1. Tk it doesn’t matter . There has been a pattern of when I post lately I’m immediately questioned . My wife told me we don’t have delays I know we did last March because of power issues as the town was hit extremely hard . I’ll research it and let everyone know .

          1. I saw it Keith thanks . I remember that in March it sucked I had no power for days . Lost it twice in March for multiple days both times and that was the first in 10 yrs .

          2. I just posted the question to my town as I was under the impression there were no delays usually.

        2. I certainly not scrutinizing, just commenting on what I know. We live on the Pembroke/Halifax line and I know when we’ve had delays the kids across the street from Pembroke are at the bus stop at the same time.

          1. Maybe my wife’s wrong I don’t know . I asked on pembroke connect where you will be able to follow

  33. Looking at the CFS, we are cold through Day 14 across much of the US. However, the second half of March into April looks warm in the Eastern US with the cold air being centered in the western half to 2/3 of the country. Euro weeklies are warm second half of March as well.

    That said, I’d caution the notion that winter is over after March 10. Judah Cohen notes in his blog the models are often too quick with the pattern change in these types of situations and we also have deep snowpack just to our north in NNE and Canada. We’re at risk for snow events right into April, even in an anomalous pattern, as TK reminds us this time every year.

    1. Absolutely. Though I agree with WxW about the shift to milder ’round mid March, I will stop short of saying it will have staying power, at least on its initial arrival. After all, I’m still waiting for that cold/dry predominant pattern that never really took complete hold. 😉

  35. 00z GFS once again has trended southeast with the Saturday system and now has the storm passing to our south similar to the CMC and Euro. That’s a colder track and good enough for some snow, at least across the interior.

    Sun night into Monday….

    00z CMC, ICON and FV-3 all depicting a snowstorm.
    GFS is bone dry and out to sea.

    CMC and ICON then pop another coastal storm Tues night into Wednesday.
    GFS again is bone dry.

    Here is the 00z CMC Kuchera Snowmap thru end of next week for entertainment purposes only 🙂

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022700&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  40. Updating blog now. Will make minor adjustments to add 1 inch to the top of the range and detail where I think it’s most likely that the lower end is realized and the higher end is realized.

      1. I expect flakes in the city by 8PM, but they may be very light and intermittent until 10 or later, so it may look like nothing is happening at first. Most of their accumulation will be 11PM-5AM.

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