6:47AM
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
On this final day of February we are setting the departure of a relatively minor snow event, but one of our only all snow events all season. The system behaved about as expected with a 2-5 inch snow forecast and a 1-4 inch result (pending some final snow reports). And now we turn our attention to the upcoming threats, and there are several. You have been pre-warned that the early part of March would feature colder weather and some storm threats, and this combination naturally leads to more snow threats, in theory, but does not guarantee that we are suddenly going to be in a snowy pattern just the same. Each of these events will have their own little quirks and variations, which will will try to work out as they get closer in time range. We still are having the issue with a pattern that doesn’t allow model forecast to be that dependable for very long out from the initial time, so nothing concrete should be said about each of these events until the details are adequately clear, and that method will be adhered to here on the blog. Friday’s event will not really be much of an event at all for most of the region, bringing just clouds, as it will be a disturbance passing mainly south of the region bringing only the threat of insignificant precipitation to the southernmost portions of southeastern New England. Saturday’s event still carries some uncertainty, but I am leaning toward 2 systems staying mainly separated, with a mainly offshore system that has the risk of bringing a period of steadier snow and rain to Cape Cod, and a weaker frontal system that should bring some mix/snow showers through the region west to east later Saturday to early Sunday. Many media outlets are already sounding a little too certain in my opinion about a threat for Sunday night and Monday. To me, the pattern certainly looks now like it wants to produce something that will make a run at the region, but the track is uncertain enough that anything from a snow to rain event, to a snow event, to a graze or miss can all still be considered possible. One thing I am more certain of is whatever form and location this system is in, it will be a fast mover and of relatively short duration. So based on the uncertainty, the wording in the detailed forecast below won’t be very detailed. Have to work with the limitations here.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with bands of snow lingering near the eastern MA coast with some additional light accumulation. Partly sunny late morning on with isolated snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light N to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/snow showers favoring eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain or snow possible Cape Cod. Mix/snow showers possible late day or evening from west to east. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow/mix at night. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain early. Chance of mix/snow showers after. Temperatures generally steady 30s to around 40.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
Dry weather expected to start and end the period, but the March 6-8 period may see 1 or 2 disturbances bring the threat of precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
Colder, drier to start the period. Risk of some precipitation mid period then a warm-up may follow this as the pattern relaxes allowing the jet stream to lift to the north and possible some high pressure to locate itself on the East Coast.
Thanks Tk .
Just please keep snow or mix away Saturday my son & I going to bruins game and he will be very disappointed if something goes wrong . Hi
Good morning and thank you TK.
18 here with light snow still falling.
I’ll take a measurement about 8AM before I leave for work.
looks to be 3-4 inches based on a look out the window.
March 2, 4, 6, 8, 11 could all threaten snow for at least somewhere in SNE. That doesn’t mean 5 snowstorms, but it means 5 watchers (as of now). Pattern change follows, but we’ll see if that has staying power as we know what forecasts for pattern changes have had done to them in recent months. 😉
An early spring regardless?
Yup.
2, 4, 6, 8, who do we appreciate—snow storms!
Hahahaha. And I’d add JPD to that appreciation list
And especially TK!!! 😀
I would say that an absolute final total for Logan will not be realized until the final update at 1 PM. Next update just after 7 AM.
Tk not sure if you saw the school closing was fake
I did. Who would put up a fake? I expect to hear about this one on the local news today. First time I’ve heard that done around here.
I don’t know but I received a text this morning saying two hour delay & I immediately called my wife . She said she figured it was fake after thinking about it .
How does someone have a email list for your son’s school?
Was the email actually addressed from the school or was it perhaps another parent that got bad information?
Sue I saw pembroke has delay . After asking I think there was no Delays in the past & with new superintendent there is now as that’s what my feedback was from different towns folks
I saw the thread on Pembroke Locals. Sounds like a new bus schedule may have also come into play which allows for delays.
They adjusted start Time as well . I just didn’t want people to think I was making it up that’s not my style . Take care sue .
It came through text to my wife’s phone . She figured it out quickly but she knew I was busy & didn’t tell me . Real delay text came this morning
Momo did it.
Who’s that
Momo is a hoax news stations are falling for and running with because fear and panic makes ratings. https://youtu.be/OC5Ws-L3FqI
Are you sure it is a hoax….schools are warning parents
Now it was an email that was sent out & the principle addressed it saying he will get to the bottom of it . He was not happy
Thanks TK.
Snowing pretty good here in medical area
You’re not done, 1/2 inch to 1 inch more to go. This is that lingering snow in the eastern areas that I had in the forecast.
Yes it cane in good I think it’s done . Needed to resalt
I’m figuring another solid 30 minutes of snow on north shore.
Boston’s about to get another 1/2 inch to 1 inch followed by the South Shore. This should bring a few places close to 4 or 5 total and some of the 1 inch amounts into the 2 zone.
Still snowing decently here.
About to head out. Not home till 1, afraid
I’ll miss some snow on measurement.
Thank you, TK.
Two hour delay here. Not awake enough to measure but looks to be right in your range
Light snow started to fall about 30 minutes ago and continues to fall in Middleborough with a full day of school. I am trying not to rub it in too badly!!! 🙂 Sachem Strong!
Thanks TK !
I thought June 14th was gonna make it.
Onto June 17th, a Monday …… insert JpDave frustration here 🙂 🙂
Still no update from Logan, just as well since it is still snowing pretty good.
Actually though, especially in SE Mass, this follow up burst of snow is going to make getting to school at the 2 hr delay mark a bit challenging.
I swear I saw on FB you had no school .
We don’t 🙂 I think had it been any other day, we would have had a 2 hr delay, but the elementary schools have a natural early release every Thursday (to help teachers plan for all subjects) and a 2 hr delay would have had elementary students in school for 2.5 hrs, which probably doesn’t even meet Mass DESE requirements.
I was thinking for the other towns.
Thank you, TK.
Thank you, TK.
Love your forecasts and explanations. I do quibble with one thing you said above – “early spring.” It depends on how one would define early spring. Suppose the pattern changes [and I believe that is uncertain] around the middle of March and we get spring-like weather by the 20th, would that count as early spring? My interpretation of an early spring is when it’s consistently mild beginning in late February/early March. This is a rarity in these parts, I know. I’d say spring-like weather arriving around the 20th of March would mean spring arrived right on time.
Ok, I took a last measurement at 8:15. At the office now and it has virtually stopped
snowing. I am adding about 5/100 to my measurement and going with
4.3 inches for JP. I’d say right in the forecast range. Nice job TK and JMA!
I’d be curious as to what the ratio was??
Looked to be say 15:1 last night, but this last stuff looks more like 20:1 or more.
TK, JMA your thoughts? Many thanks
btw, I am extremely comfortable with that measurement.
Let’s hope Logan is close to that amount.
The “flip” is noticeable here on our trusty accuweather forecast.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/norwood-ma/02062/march-weather/716_pc?monyr=3/1/2019
Hope for a slow melting season up north.
https://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow
TWC would advertise that as “extreme normal weather”
Hmmm
The 12Z NAMS advertising some more snow for Saturday.
3KM NAM kuchera snow
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019022806/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Latest update Logan = 3.4” (7:00 AM)
As TK said, would have to add .5 to 1.0 to that.
Should come in right around 4 inches give or take a tenth or 2. 🙂
Well, we will know for sure sometime after 1:00 PM for their final measurement.
Thanks TK
A dusting of snow down here. 12z NAM looks to deliver a general 1-3 inches for Saturday.
Boston now up to 13.9 for the season and will see if they could make a run at 20 inches for the season. BDL now up to 29.8 and now only 10.7 away from normal snowfall for the season.
I am really close to 25 inches at my house in JP. Logan is PATHETIC!!!
IDK JPD….I’m not minding the logan total 😉
Sorry you got skunked Jimmy. I was under the impression that CT was going to get the higher totals, if anything. Maybe next storm.
A tick under 3 inches in my part of Sutton.
12z NAM Saturday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2019022812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
4 very fluffy inches in North Reading…it was a pretty snow and pretty easy to move.
Only 1.2″ here in Coventry, CT. Yet we had a 2 hour delay this AM. Most of CT missed out on this one for sure with a coating-1″ most places and 1-3″ in the NE part of the state. Seems like forecasts verified pretty well for MA and RI with most in the 2-4″ range.
Snow totals from the NWS:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS
Rockport with 6″ and Gloucester with 5″ take the jackpot.
Boston Buoy temp = 38F
Both 12z American Model runs show accumulating snowfall for Saturday. 1-3 inches for the NAM and the GFS is a 2-5 inches.
Thank you TK. We had about 4 inches in Halifax and a 2 hour delay, like half the state. 🙂 Drove my 7th grader to school and roads were in decent shape. Glad we didn’t have to take a snow day.
The developing coastal storm Saturday is looking more and more interesting with the GFS now showing 3-5″+ across CT, RI, and SE MA with 3″ even in Boston.
ICON is a decent hit as well and the CMC is more of a sideswipe.
Sun night/Monday AM still looks like a quick hitting but potent system. 12z GFS and ICON keep it all snow while the CMC track would bring heavy snow to heavy rain. GFS delivers about 6-9″ of snow.
Will be interesting to see what the Euro shows….the 00z Euro was way west and warm with a mostly rain event.
As a snow lover I am hoping Saturday is the appetizer and Sunday night into Monday is the main course.
That sounds good to me JJ!
Works for me also, JJ.
991 low on CMC near Nantucket for Sun night into Mon. Get that low to track a little further south east and the higher snow totals will shift south and east.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019022812&fh=102&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h&m=gdps
CMC position of the low
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype&rh=2019022812&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
GFS by comparison same strength with the low at 991 but look how a little shift makes a difference
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype&rh=2019022812&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2019022812&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
JJ, I would take that 12z GFS run verbatim and be happy. It’s got another developing coastal storm late next week as well.
240 hour run total Kuchera Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022812&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Got an email from Sunday River yesterday with this photo taken two days ago of a street in Bethel, Maine….
https://imgur.com/a/dkGgkH3
Snowbank heights are ridiculous!
Reminds me of what it was like in my younger years. GREAT photo. Thanks.
And not to be outdone, this is a shot from Sugarloaf, Maine…
https://imgur.com/a/TIXKTbz
The car in the photo gives you some perspective how high the snowbanks are!
I would be happy if we got half of that but it is the GFS so will probably be no where near those projected totals its showing through hour 240.
Mark your Islanders are looking good and I am sure John Tavares is going to be greeted by boos tonight. I like the Yankees moves in the offseason. They did not need Manny Machado and I don’t want a dirty player and guy who doesn’t hustle all the time on my team.
Totally agree on Machado. I’m cautiously optimistic about the Yankees this season. Disappointed they let Robertson go but their bullpen is already stacked as it is.
Should be interesting tonight on the Island. The boo birds will be out for Taveras for sure. The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs handily up in Toronto and hoping for a repeat performance tonight. They’ve stumbled a bit as of late though, losing 3 of 4. Need to turn it around tonight!
2.7″ of pure fluff, high ratio snow in Falmouth. Love it….
https://twitter.com/CapeHomepage/status/1101106966812913664
Eric FisherVerified account @ericfisher · 35m35 minutes ago
Winter should be banned from happening if it can’t get its act together before March
Alas, not the case
Just like last year. At least we’ll have an early spring and no snow for April.
Also to add regarding Eric’s frustration, at least March snows melt faster with the stronger sun angle. 🙂
Don’t be so sure about the no snow in April…
Looking at where BDL is only needing 10.7 to reach normal snowfall for the season I think there is a good shot at making a good run at it.
NWS Boston: “[Late Fri night/Sat Snow Potential Increasing] Still evaluating the latest data, but the threat for accumulating snow is increasing late Fri night/Sat especially across eastern New England. This is separate from the potential storm later Sun/Sun night. More later this afternoon.”
Thoughts?
Looks like the Euro has come a bit closer as well for Saturday.
Saturday temps are somewhat marginal and factoring in when the precip falls vs daylight hours will be a factor for potential accumulation.
Great pics mark thanks! Looks like something you would find out west in the Sierras (Tahoe area). Although this winter they have outdone themselves.
Exactly, these ski areas are likely to exceed 300″ on the season (Jay Peak will exceed 400″). These are the types of seasonal snow totals you see in the Sierras. If the Euro is correct, they add another 12-18″ on Monday.
12z Euro has 1-3″ in Eastern MA for the Friday night/Saturday morning system. Highest amounts in eastern MA with this one. Only showing an inch or less further west across CT and west/central MA, unlike the GFS.
For Sunday night/Monday AM, Euro has the storm hugging the coast. Still too warm with mostly rain for SNE. Swath of 12″+ across eastern NY into VT and central/northern NH and western ME.
12z Euro Snow for Sat AM:
https://imgur.com/a/iRkue0P
There is a bit of snow that happens Friday night that is not in here, but a general 3-4″ in the areas shaded in green across Eastern MA and the Cape/Islands, including Boston.
Definite shift NW there on that Euro run. Euro late to the game on this storm as well, much like the system last night.
That is an eastward move from the 00z correct?
Westward on the Sat/sun system. About the same on the sun night/mon system.
Sat/Sun = 🙂
Sun/Mon = 🙁
Anyone have final Logan snow totals for this morning???
thanks
https://twitter.com/jackielayeron7/status/1101163781160386570?s=21
Not sure if this answers your question.
Nope, thank you. It snowed for 1.5 hours after 7AM.
I am looking for the final total. Thanks
Unfortunately the latest PIS on the storm came out at 12:09 PM before Logan recorded its last (final) 1:00 PM measurement. Will probably have to wait until climo stats after 4:00 PM on NWS Page.
Maybe PIS will update again soon. We will see. Otherwise will have to wait a bit longer.
I just corresponded with the NWS office and they
told me the final total was 3.4 inches. PATHETIC!!
Very disappointing. It was still snowing pretty good between 7-8 AM. 🙁
I have to believe they just gave me the last report. It HAS to change.
I called them on it. Wating
for a response. 🙂
If it snowed for an hour after 7AM and the next scheduled measurement wasn’t until 1PM then I am sure whatever fell in those 6 hours melted.
Vicki rather than reply above watch the first few minutes of this regarding momo: https://youtu.be/S1h4D2ARZcU
Problem with this year has been the temperature swings, they are getting a good amount of snow but it’s not staying good snow for more than a couple days
Too bad the Sunday/Monday system will be the usual messy mix of snow-mix-to-rain…or even ALL rain?
Philip, Not sure if I agree with the early spring comment. A flip may happen mid month, but if springlike temps occur then I wouldn’t say it’s early. Rather, it’s right on time. A more likely scenario, however, is what we usually get, namely, an oscillating pattern that looks like spring one day and winter the next right into April. For 3 straight years Boston has seen accumulating snows in April. While snow is unlikely in April, a truly persistent springlike pattern is equally unlikely. In 2014 we did have that. It was a beautiful April, as nice as I’ve ever seen it. But the likelihood of that happening is really small. Another factor that mitigates against `early’ spring or a persistent spring pattern is the ocean temperature. The coming 10 days will be colder than normal, and at night well below normal. The 38F you see today in Boston harbor won’t budge for a while. Once sea breezes kick in, or an easterly pattern, we all know what happens: raw and gray prevail. And the southwesterly may warm us up in Boston, but often produces chilly conditions over the Outer Cape and islands.
Good points Joshua! Thanks.
18Z NAM “appears” to be farther off shore for Saturday.
Nor appears. most definitely way more off shore with only a coating up to Boston.
18Z 3km NAM comes a little closer, bringing about an inch or
so to Boston.
Incredible snow pics. from Caribou, Maine. 147″ on the season. That ain’t melting till Memorial Day!
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/IMG_20190228_152008.jpg.081930027483401f098b98d27ba17b1b.jpg
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/IMG_20190228_151952.jpg.a6a9f59bfee8bc8e4f188225ab103ff3.jpg
12z Euro EPS very bullish for the Saturday system delivering 3-7″ of snow and 5″ for Boston!
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/903292949_download(15).png.a90d3a5c4acef92fd239e673404e71ef.png
Not sure why the link broke. Copy and paste the entire link into your browser and it will work.
12z Euro EPS snow total for both storms:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_02/697234672_download(18).png.9cb281a496899f2c29e5c847a395b295.png
Tacks on another 6″ most places with the Sun night/Monday AM storm.
Use this link instead:
https://imgur.com/w9G00LA
Actually, the 18Z 3Km NAm brings 3 inches to Boston
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2019022818/051/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Trend that a little more northwest to get me on the action Fri night into Saturday.
Tweet from Meteorologist John Homenuk for Fri night into Saturday system.
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1101217409669754891
18z NAM shows a Snow to Rain scenario for Monday.
Excellent trends today. And a stronger/closer pass with the Sat AM system SHOULD favor a flatter/more off shore pass with the follow-up storm, resulting in more snow for SNE with both systems. Encouraging to see the colder solution on the EPS.
12z GEFS now colder through mid March. Pattern change on hold??? Would not at all be surprised….
https://twitter.com/garrityv_t/status/1101217918493360128
The only thing bad is I get gipped on the first system at the current moment. Hoping that ticks a little further northwest. The EPS probabilities from what I saw on twitter are better than 50% for a lot of SNE for greater than 6 inches.
This for the second system.
https://twitter.com/NsfwWx/status/1101204004825120774
Yes. Even with the closer track and a lot of the members going snow to rain, there is still a significant up front thump.
Here is the NWS response to me inquiry about the Boston Snow.
Hello- 3.4 inches was the total. There was 1.2″ thru midnight last night, 2.2 between midnight and 7 am, and a Trace after 7 am. There are 2 CoCoRaHS observers in Suffolk County- Chelsea 0.8 N came in with a total of 3.1″ at 7 am, and a Boston 0.5 WSW CoCoRaHS site came in with 3.5″. So these all line up well. Hope that this helps.
This is total BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NO WAY a trace fell after 7AM. NO freakin WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What a REVOLTING DEVELOPMENT THIS IS!!!!!
Extra points IF you know where that phrase comes from. I definitely know and I’d
wager Vicki knows and probably TK. 🙂
And the Gap continues to widen. My snow spreadsheet, pending any possible update
to the Boston (ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!!) total.
https://imgur.com/a/jMn1Oh5
I’m having a Euro moment. No, this has nothing to do with the meteorological model. It’s remembering how wonderful it was to live in a country that is always punctual, with everything.
I’m currently waiting for a stove I ordered to be delivered. It’s long past the `window’ of 12-3pm. They’re `running 2 hours late.’ How often have I heard that in America? At least they didn’t blame it on the snow. That would have riled me up.
From electricians, to plumbers, to cable companies, to Amtrak, to airlines, to students attending class, to doctors, to dentists, to dates, etc … It’s amazing how acceptable this tardiness is in our society. It would be utterly unacceptable in all of Northern Europe. In fact, the business that was habitually late would very quickly find itself out of business. But not here. I find this tardiness so disrespectful. I apologize for the rant.
Good rant and oh how true it is.
Such a true rant. Sort of in the same vein…Macs mom was shocked when they returned to the states and saw all of the seconds stores. Her view was that seconds are unacceptable….either get it right or out you go.
I don’t understand how the track of the Sat-Sun system will determine the track of the Sun-Mon system.
It won’t. It’s the overall pattern that will determine both.
1. 9.0” = 1936-37
2. 9.3” = 2011-12
3. 10.3” = 1972-73
4. 12.7” = 1979-80
5. 13.9” = 2018-19**
6. 14.9” = 1994-95
7. 15.1” = 2001-02
8. 17.1” = 2006-07
9. 18.1” = 1985-86
10. 19.1” = 1990-91
18z GFS is JUICED for Saturday AM!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022818&fh=48
Pivotal Kuchera showing 5-10″! Jackpot in CT and RI.
Snowmap:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022818&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
WOW!
18z GFS for your entertainment pleasure for Saturday. Quite surprised if this verified.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022818&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18z ICON a solid hit for Saturday as well with 4-8″. Jackpot over Eastern MA…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019022818&fh=45
Snowmap:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019022818&fh=45
Sorry, disregard that link. This one is the FINAL snowmap…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019022818&fh=66
So is there now a decent shot at a snow storm for Boston Saturday morning and what’s the latest thinking . Of all days not Saturday or at least Saturday night .
It should be done before Sat night.
Ryan Hanrahan showed a map of 1-3 for CT Saturday and said were close to something more significant.
Tweet from Meteorologist John Homenuk for Saturday
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1101240132886319104
18z GFS with an all snow event Sunday night/Monday AM, with the exception of the immediate South coast and islands.
Pivotal Kuchera Snowmap for the second storm with a general 5-7″
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2019022818&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
SHOULD the GFS verify, we are looking at 12-18″ in 48 hours across much of SNE.
Total 18z GFS Snow (both storms):
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019022818&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Oooh the snow birds are out in force today. But it may be for good reason this time 🙂
Last night was a little snowier than I expected, mostly because we were able to achieve those really high ratios, not due to surface temps but because of better moisture and lift aloft. All in all though, most places were 2-4, some a little more, some a little less. Pretty well behaved for the most part.
Saturday is an example of what I’ve talked about with having to watch for threats you don’t see until they’re on top of you. We’re two days away from a storm that could potentially drop double digit totals in parts of SNE…. and nobody knows it’s coming! Now that never happens these days. I’m not sold that it will do that, but you can’t ignore the potential given the extremely rapid and enormous changes we’re seeing almost every run on the guidance. I wonder if that may tuck in even closer to the coast and send the rain/snow line further west. What a brutal situation for anyone trying to forecast in SNE though. The moisture on that is very impressive for a compact storm.
Sunday night-Monday… it’s not that far away, but in light of how active the pattern is it’s really too early to have any confidence in that one. It’s pretty juicy looking though. We shall see. But this has clearly turned into the most active stretch of this winter in terms of snow potential.
You calling me a birdie? 🙂
🙂 🙂
You’ve gotten as good as JPDave now Mark! Always enjoy your posts.
Thanks and likewise WxW!
Talk about the ULITMATE compliment for you both. I sure agree. And WxW…well, you know I may be your biggest fan…..or among the top fans.
Thanks Vicki! The feeling is mutual 🙂
🙂
IF and BIG IF that GFS verifies snowfall will be above normal for the season in CT.
Meanwhile, I’m going to go bow down before an image of the MJO forecast. For this winter at least, that index is the magic bullet. Even if these snow potentials don’t play out, they’re there. And they haven’t been the entire winter before now.
We are in the heart of Phase 1/2 right now, not a coincidence. Looks like progression into Phase 3 is next, and then trending more neutral, which likely means that MJO will become less of a factor moving forward. Now is the time to cash in!
Phillip – with respect to your question above, if the first storm is stronger and tucked in closer, it has an easier time bringing the colder/drier air in behind it which affects the steering flow for the next storm, effectively shifting it a bit further south. It makes a bit harder for that second system to wind up and track further NW. You can see this nicely when running the 18z GFS.
Perhaps TK could elaborate more in better technical terms but we frequently see one storm impacting the next when we are in a progressive pattern like this with closely spaced systems.
Nice. Thank you from me even though I didn’t ask
Thanks Mark. I hope TK can elaborate on that when he gets a chance to post.
18z RGEM for Saturday.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_024h&rh=2019022818&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Wow! Now there are 2 MapMen here on the blog. 🙂
I won’t add a map now, but I will say that the 18Z RDPS has joined the hit parade for Saturday in a significant way.
OK, I will post 2 maps;
at 48 hours, 1 PM Sat:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019022818/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.png
10:1 snow map through 54 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019022818/rgem_asnow_neus_54.png
Kuchera though only 48 hours with 4-6 hours more snow.
https://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2019022818/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png
Nice 15″ JACK for Tom there!
Love these late blooming storms that come out of nowhere. Of course, it hasn’t happened yet 🙂
You call me JP, you call me JPD, you can call me OS, you can call me Dave, but
you doesn’t have to call me MAPMAN! 🙂
Is there a sort of kind of timeframe for a start for weekend storm? If it isn’t until Saturday, all will be well. Macs cousin is hosting a sat brunch sat am for her mother in law who will be 100. Her kids are arriving from various US points. If Friday is a concern, I was thinking is call her. Although I suspect it it is too late for anyone to change flights.
This looks to be a Saturday am into Saturday afternoon system at the moment.
Any shifts 20-30 miles in either direction will have an impact on snowfall.
This looks like an overnight Friday to early Sat PM threat.
About and approximately 5 AM Sat to 7PM Sat, give or take (assuming there is even a storm)
I’m not hearing that late early afternoon
Vicki 5 said 1am Saturday morning and done by early afternoon with sunny skies if it helps
Thank you all. I am touched that you answered so quickly. Looks as if it will be perfect timing for everyone to get in here Friday. It’s a tough one since her MIL is not welland it would be special if she were to see her grands and great grand.
We haven’t been able to post a lot of these model snowfall forecasts this winter on the blog. Its look like were going to try to make up for that with two systems to keep an eye on.
Where are TK and JMA to sh-t on the models and tell us Sat will feature passing snow showers?
HAHA!!!
We do it … it’s just not as noticed.
If I remember correctly TK did say more than a week ago he had a funny feeling around March 1 or 2nd for this storm. And it looks like his funny feeling may come to fruition. Props to tk for predicting something than no model even saw as late as last night. Of course I dont want to jinx it since It haven’t happend yet. But wouldn’t it be something if boston gets more snow in the first system than the second.
It was February 14 and I’ve had that feeling since then. I also had a watcher on February 24 for a mild Pacific system (rain producer). Also extending it through about March 11 or 12. This comes not really from paying attention to what the models say, but paying attention and anticipating what they can’t say, as well as just having a feel for the overall pattern. Sometimes it backfires big time. 😉
I am praying tonight Saturday is a miss here regarding snow
Even for break purposes . Mike thinks the cape gets a lot Saturday. Snow removal is extremely tough work . The hospital isn’t sitting behind a plow . It’s heavy machinery, shoveling, heavy lifting etc . The crew I’m on is meticulous ( we are known around the area for how good the grounds look ) no snow running against a curb , hydrants and signs squared off etc . It’s a lot of work and it takes me two days to recover from an all nighter storm .
That area is very hard. I have watched the snow removal crew there many times in the early to mid 1990s when I used to drop someone off and pick them up from C.H. on a regular basis.
Hearing that 18z Euro is more NW for Saturdays storm with 12 plus in Se Mass. Pressure drops 15 in 12 hours
As a matter of fact 18z Euro has 15 to 20 inches of snow in far Se Mass towards the canal. Wow. If only this shifts more Nw!
Those amounts are still too high.
Nope
I have a hunch that Boston area sees more snow from the Saturday event than the Sunday night event.
Same here. And do you have any funny feelings about big thunderstorms at a certain date?lol jk. I like these surprise snow storms. Do you think the nw trend will continue at 00z?
Haha not at the moment. 😉
MJO says yes to snow Saturday, not so much to it Sunday/Monday. That’s only a small part of why I’m saying it. But phase 2 for the first system, phase 3 for the second, may make a difference, or at least have some influence.
Yes -Especially on a line from say Franklin to Norwood to Quincy south and east Saturday is your snow maker. Areas west of Worcester may not see much at all on Saturday.
One of the TV mets already mentioned a rain/snow line and #’s for the Sunday night / Monday system…
#’s … REALLY! I’m no met, but from what I looked at you couldn’t put a number on anything for that storm except maybe the date.
Lol I like that . Good game going on I’m watching it till 9:00 than it’s lights out .
B’s are getting their share of shots.
Tweet from Eric Fisher
Each successive run looking more and more impressive for Saturday. #March
WxW described it very nicely about having a threat appear quickly. It’s hard to post “watcher periods” because everybody wants to know details now, but it’s just not the way weather forecasting works. And we still not be done seeing guidance adjustments in that system, let alone the one behind it.
In other words stay tuned!
Eric’s got a new snowfall map out and I’m less than thrilled ….
At least it is a Saturday.
Thanks Sue, that actually makes me feel better 🙂
Ugh right up to Boston as well .
I’m guessing he reacted to the 18z Euro, let’s see if the 00z runs support this thinking.
of course the Northeast part of the state is not part of the heaviest portion of either one of the storm. First one the activity to the south. Second one, snow changes to rain. Can’t win with the bigger storms.
NWS snow map for Saturday
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png
Eric Fisher Snow map for Saturday
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0iS3PNW0AAL0xk.jpg:large
Thanks JpDave
Thank you, Sir
Whoa!
I think he may have made a bit of a hasty judgement based on one run of one model that sucks for snowfall.
He did say there was new data coming in and he would reasses. He is always careful to make it clear things change.
Let’s shift that 6-12 back my way. The way this winter has gone I will take 3-6 inches.
I’m working on it JJ
Thanks Vicki
At least no ice with this one. I have seen more ice accretion maps this winter than no snow maps.
Of course the most active period is when i will be gone. Heading down to NC for a memorial for my mom-1 year, times flys by.
Wow Hadi, can’t believe it has been a year. Wishing you a safe trip and special memories with your family.
Oh Hadi….I also cannot believe it has been a year. Love and hugs to you and your entire family.
Bruins playing the best team in the NHL tonight and up 1-0 in the 3rd.
2-0 now 🙂
Make that 3-0. 😉
4-0. HAHA!
3 goals in 1 minute and change.
4-1, well there goes Rask’s shutout, but it’s ok. Nothing he could do about that one!
They are playing unbelievable right now on the road and at home too!
0z NAM for Saturday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_024h&rh=2019030100&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
By comparison the 18z run of the NAM for Saturday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019022818&fh=51&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h&m=nam
The wild disparity between snow maps. My god. https://i.imgur.com/Usz2kvH.jpg
This illustrates 3 things going on…
1) A sensible forecast a couple days out in an uncertain situation.
2) A marriage to in-house guidance.
3) Over-reaction to one run of one model known for bad snow forecasting.
That’s just how it is.
That is such a good breakdown TK. By the way I’ve collected the rest. Here’s the most current for all six:
https://i.imgur.com/nYZie99.jpg
Normally I share these with a lot of friends who then spread it but I am holding back because I don’t want to be a party to eric fishers jumping of the gun. You see these together and you live in boston and say “ok. Anywhere between 1 inch and a foot.”
According to JR, snow to messy mix for Sunday-Monday.
And a deep freeze after that. Look for a skating rink situation Monday night and Tuesday morning as the temps will crash into the teens in the city and maybe even single digits in outer lying suburbs. Tuesday through Thursday next week will look as wintry as it has all winter with the persistent cold and a solid crusty 5-9 inch base of compacted snow in the city. I do look forward to that mid January look in early March.
Bruins are everything the Celtics are not at this point in time: Good. Team. Chemistry. Though a long shot, I think the Bruins have an outside chance of hoisting the cup. If that happens, I believe it would be a first for a city; to have 3 consecutive championships in 3 different sports: Baseball, football, hockey. Hockey’s Stanley Cup final is generally before basketball’s final series. I do realize the NE Patriots are not a Boston team. But, it is the biggest city in the region from which the Pats’ fan base is drawn.
Good morning.
6z NAM finally seems to be latching on and is looking more juiced for the first system, delivering 0.5”+ QPF most areas. This is good for 6”+ snow along and southeast of a line from Danbury to Hartford to Worcester to just north of Boston.
Something looks haywire with the pivotal Kuchera snow map so posting the TT 10:1 snowmap here which shouldn’t be too far off:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019030106&fh=39
NWS in their morning update discounting the more robust GFS solution and going with 3-6” Boston, RI and SE MA.
They are favoring a colder solution than the Euro for the second system with mostly snow interior and snow changing to mix/rain on the coastal plain. Euro did tick SE at 00z while the CMC remains just inside the benchmark. GFS is coldest/outside the benchmark and would be less QPF but all snow for everyone.
Waking up to a little snow and a coating on the ground.
https://i.imgur.com/6t7dDze.jpg – snowfall forecasts
Wow, how often is the NWS the most conservative on snowfall projections ?
There are winter weather advisories for parts of SNE including Boston and I expect more winter weather alerts to be issued for more of SNE later today.
Here are the NAM kuchera snow
https://imgur.com/a/2uTszKC
NWS snow map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png
WWA for 3-6 inches
https://www.weather.gov/box/
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
SREF
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif
7.61 inches for boston.
plumes
https://imgur.com/a/5EjoR54
7 day forecasts https://i.imgur.com/6t7dDze.jpg
those look much better. thanks
HRDPS showing some nice banding…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2019030106/hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png
10:1 snow
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrdps/2019030106/hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png
Are we still thinking it moves out first thing in the afternoon Saturday. Timing is critical for this one as I have tickets to Saturday nights games . I will need to get back home & get some rest as I’ll probably be in tonight by 11pm
New post! It’s as detailed as I can get right now.