Saturday Forecast

369 Comments

2:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
Low pressure will track rapidly northeastward in a fast-flowing jet stream, passing southeast of New England during today, producing a light to borderline moderate snowfall for the region, with some mixing with rain possible closer to the South Coast. This system will be fairly easy to manage as temperatures will not be all that cold. Also occurring in early March the sun angle is higher, so even if the sun is not actually shining, the radiation through the clouds aids in snow-melt on the roadways. A disturbance will track west to east across the region tonight with additional snow showers producing only minor accumulation. Another wave of low pressure, slightly larger than the first, will behave fairly similarly as it passes southeast of the region Sunday night and early Monday, with an early idea on this being another light to moderate snowfall. It remains to be seen if any mix/rain will be involved in it. Cold air will invade the region behind the second system. A disturbance coming along on Wednesday will bring at least cloudiness and possible some snow shower activity.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with snow advancing northward early through mid morning then tapering off west to east late morning to early afternoon, may mix with rain South Coast, with snow accumulation a coating to 1 inch north central MA and southwestern to south central NH, 1-3 inches I-95 belt and immediate South Coast, 3-6 inches remainder of southeastern MA. Breaking clouds with partial sun possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow showers moving west to east across the region with additional accumulation of under 1 inch. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow develops southwest to northeast. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow except rain or snow South Coast, ending southwest to northeast midday. Breaking clouds later in the day. Early-call snow accumulation on this event 2-6 inches. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Colder than average for the period. Low pressure areas passing by with snow/mix threats March 8 and 10.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Milder air tries to overtake the region by mid month, probably starting with a period of cloudiness and possible precipitation early in the period.

369 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. First! lol.

    Feels like the theme of March will be “big event!” Songs followed by “well that wasn’t impressive.” Refrains.

  4. I had every order, reservation, employee etc either cancel, call out or try to over the “huge snowstorm” we’re getting Saturday. People seemed to think they wouldn’t be physically able to exit their homes until sometime next week…….

    1. As ch 4 still advertising a major hit Sunday night . Not a fan of 4 at all I never was.

  6. Restaurant owner. No point in ordering, buying, prepping perishables that have to be sold that day or thrown out. Most of staff relies on mbta – they don’t wanr the hassle of snow. Half the people that have orders – reservations will cancel or not show up if there are even flurries. I have to make the decisions 2-3 days out – frustrating to no end

    1. Hey, but the local stations got to make more advertising $$ from more fakenews weather content while you just keep on throwing away stuff. Sorry M.L.

      B.T.W, I know past performance doesn’t predict future results but “all” of the “storms” this winter have come in at the lower or below the low end of the media forecasted range for most. This one was going to be no different. Same with the next and same now and forever because of the business they’re in which is to sell advertising. The storms will do what they do.

      I wish I had the time to track this and come up with forecast misses 24 – 48 hours out and what the % off from the high and low end amounts end of being. I can guarantee there’s a high-range bias that has spiked and stayed there starting maybe ten years ago to today while nature just continues to do what it does anyway.

        1. In this particular case, Eric went out on a limb….so far looks like limb has broken.
          I like Eric. I trust him, but I think he may have missed this one. I’ll give him a pass.

          1. Eric was really clear the numbers might well change and he brought them all down yesterday. He ended with Boston in 3-6

            1. Actually at 111 he has 3-6 and 2-5 swiped through parts of the city. Still way high imho. I think he bit hard on that 18z euro
              and was slow to back off. 🙂

              He was funny, last night he said he lowered his numbers because the system didn’t look as enticing.

    2. Next one looks like it’s going to be zipping right along O.S. Lets try this, shave 20% off of whatever the mean range the media puts out today, circle what the low end number is and see what we get. Bet it’s close.

      1. I bet you are correct. We’ll find out soon enough. I was hoping I would have surpassed 30 inches on the year with today’s system. Will have to go some to do that. currently a shade under 25 for year.

        1. I really need to do a data dive on this. Maybe I’ll start next year. I bet after maybe only five years or so, we could totally expose a reliable forecast bias % that we could apply with a fair amount of accuracy. Let’s put that on our list for next year O.S. Maybe we could work it together. I’m a real data geek.

  9. I kept telling my wife that we not getting much, perhaps 3 inches at best. She kept saying Ericc said 6-12. ,I kept telling her he
    was wrong. she wouldn’t listen. She thinks
    that I know nothing. I just said we shall see.

    1. Oh yeah, the buzz at work yesterday was that Worcester was getting 8″ today and a foot Sunday/Monday. They were even asking about if we were going to close on Monday..…….(**close a fortune 500 business)

    1. We’d have to go back and look at what the good Dr. S. has been posting for collages 24, 48 hours out and compare to what actually happens. Everything I’m saying is anecdotal and needs to be proved out but my general belief is:

      -first to post amounts wins
      -first to post high ranges wins
      -first to post dark color graphics that are well researched to imply “danger” wins

      and so on…

        2. Problem is all psychology. Majority of people will go right to the high number and by the time the mild panic circulates through the population, they add to the story and next thing you know, M.L.’s restaurant is empty and Market Basket looks like Gillette Stadium before a championship game. My problem with it all is the media knows this and profits on it. It’s pervasive in all “news” and why I stopped watching any local, network or cable news for almost ten years now. Life has been better without it to be honest.

      2. Some of the Boston outlets seem to change their “snow numbers” multiple times a day during the run up to a storm – especially on their weather apps. Is this a reflection of model runs or something else?

  12. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    thorough unimpressed to say the least.

    Latest 10Z HRR now has 0.7 inch for Boston. Amazing.
    RAP 1.1
    NAM 3.2
    3km Nam 2.8
    GFS 2.0
    RDPS 1.4
    CMC 2
    SREF still has 4.27

    Yeah, I would say 1-3 sounds reasonable with emphasis on lower end.

    Whooppie!!!!!!

  15. looking over 7 AM obs, most reporting stations reporting light snow with vis around a mile give or take a bit. Exception was Plymouth reporting 1/4 mile vis in snow.

  17. To add a little color as to why folks feel the the media hypes every single event, it’s not necessarily the amounts given (which, of course, seem to fluctuate by the day), but the words used to describe the event. Here’s the current phrasing on three websites for today’s snow event (keep in mind, this is 2-5 inches I suppose):

    wbz.com: “Significant snow is coming Saturday”
    wcvb.com: “First of two snowstorms to impact Massachusetts Saturday”
    whdh.com: “Bay State Bracing for back to back snowstorms”

    OK, lets look at the obvious words that cause alarm in each sentence: “Significant”, “impact”, “Bracing”. Those are strong words. “Impact” and “Bracing” sound like a car crash.

    Now, a little deeper into the words: “storm”. When you picture a storm, do you see 2-3 inches of snow with little wind? When rain is predicted, does the media use the word “Rainstorm” or just “Rain”? Do we “brace” for a “rainstorm”?

    Sorry for the dissertation, I just find it interesting that the way the media can subliminally cause hype without actually standing on a chair and yelling 🙂

    Hi Phil.

      1. Sorry, no, I was addressing my buddy Phil who turned me on to this site many moons ago.

  19. Thanks, TK.

    Snowing light to moderate here. Light coating on ground. I have noticed mets. changing snow amounts a lot too since last night. Even this morning. Seems to be we will all be getting anything from 3 – 6 inches, maybe add another inch or 2 in places. But I guess not much up north – feel bad for the skiers.

  20. SSK, you quoted me as 3 inches for Boston. I guessed 3 for Boston yesterday morning. Don’t forget that forecasts get updated. If you look above, the forecast is 1-3. Please do not focus on ONLY the top number.

    And to the defense of the TV folks, there may have been a few exceptions, but this 1st storm was not hyped beyond what the news directors wanted things to sound like. If you were paying attention to the TV forecasters, the never ever made it sound like this was going to be a “huge” storm, or a storm that made travel impossible.

      1. Just wanted to make sure. Be safe out there. You’ll get to your
        game tonight. Enjoy.

        1. I don’t think I’m going with the uncertainty and being here since midnight my wife is taking him but that could change .

    2. And that’s the rub right there. “paying attention”. It’s beyond most folks ability or desire to do these days. So, buyer beware is the message. Seems like everything has a warning label on it these days. Time for the news to cover this topic on their own consumer protection stories?

    3. Sorry, but when Eris posted 6-12, he surely intimated that. To be fair, he did “slowly” back off from that.

  21. An under achiever where I am. Its the CT shoreline that is going to get to the low end of the 3-5 inches that was forecasted as the heavier bands of snow came up there and never made it to inland CT. Closing in on an inch here.

  22. There are so many houses and trees in my neighborhood that it is very tough to get
    a decent view to gauge the visibility. I am guessing we are getting very close to 1/2 mile, so bordering on Moderate snow, if not moderate already. About 1/4 to 1/2 inch on the ground.

    For this Winter, this is not a bad little system, the problem is that is is just passing too far off shore and moving too fast.

    1. Precisely. This is a decent system for March in a “bad” overall pattern. Monday’s probably will be too, but obviously some tweaks are needed before we’ll know the magnitude. I’m just currently feeling something close to this one (maybe a little more expansive).

    2. Hey you are doing better than I am, JPD. I only have one eye open and it is just halfway. About to make a cup of coffee and sit by the window. I’m looking forward to just watching and enjoying.

      1. Yes, It really looks like Winter here. Another couple of inches to
        add to my spreadsheet. 🙂

  23. Melting on impact here in the medical zone Tons of salt down . I may need to shed some layers as it’s not bad out .

    1. This is not a “cold” event, but a marginal one. It’s cold enough aloft for snow no problem, but it’s relatively mild at the surface.

  25. Examine this radar loop carefully and I think you will see a slight NW expansion of stronger echos. This was depicted and expected on the models. Just won’t last long enough.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25858844&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  26. Barry explained that these systems are moving along due to a lack of blocking. Therefore, limited snowfall. I get the impression from TK we are lucky to have as much snow as we have or will get due to MJO and current Phases that I admit have no clue about whatsoever. Anyway, we are just in a bad position for snow this particular winter. At least Logan will not be #1 in terms of least snowfall. That was my personal fear.

    It probably remains to be seen if even 20 inches can be achieved at Logan.

    1. TK also mentioned yesterday about the progressive nature of these storms being a player. 😉 As I type this, Barry Burbank just said the same thing. 🙂

  27. Thanks TK !

    TK, the timing on WordPress is off.

    It’s 1pm. All the comments say pre – 8am. I know this is true because the storm ends midday and many of the comments are judging the outcome of today’s event.

    I like everyone here and have met many wonderful bloggers, great people.

    But, I have to be honest and say that the day of the snow event, bloggers running posts ….. is sometimes a tough read. Judging the event before it’s done, how the tv mets did, how they hyped or didn’t, etc ……… I am sorry, but it’s how I feel after reading.

    3. What I was commenting on was the “coverage” not the actual “event”. On social media the event IS or becomes the coverage. If Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat and twitter say “95 million set to get BLASTED by snow and ice!!!” Then as far as a huge percentage of people are concerned that’s what’s happening – not even bothering to look out the window…….

  29. On radar at 7:15 AM there was an area of plain rain over Boston Harbor/inner Massachusetts Bay with snow surrounding in all directions…interesting. All snow there now.

  30. When I left for work, Barry had Boston on the low end of 6-9 inches for tomorrow. Has he updated it?

    6 or 7

  31. ML – Any chance that you can recover later this afternoon/evening once the snow “threat” ends. Will your customers have enough confidence to eat out? Saturday night and all.

  32. Thanks TK.
    I remember that snow blitz back in 2013 where no matter what the models showed everything seemed to over achieve. It was the overall pattern at that time. I remember one of TK’s posts back then that said, and I will paraphrase ( sometimes the atmosphere just wants to snow.) Seems this year is the exact opposite of that.

    2. Yep that’s pretty much a direct quote. 😉

      I’ve actually used that phrase for many years even long before I started this blog when chatting with my co-workers and fellow forecasters.

  34. Coming down at a good clip where I am right now. Should be done in the next 90 minutes. Forecast for the CT shoreline worked out with the 3-5 inches. We underachieved here where I am in inland CT.

  36. We see headlines in many different places from TV screens to mostly on the net via our laptop tablet or phone. A fair amount of those weather-related headlines are not actually written by the forecaster for the outlet but by an editor. And many times those headlines are written by a person who was not fully aware of the situation and is just reacting to the general feeling of the people they work with or perhaps the public that they interacted with before they came into work that day. In other cases they’re saying exactly what the boss wants them to say.

  37. Live report from Longwood zone snow had picked up some but now a little tamer if you will . As of now it’s just been salting needed . This is south kid reporting live .

  38. I brought my laptop home on the off chance the office is closed on Monday. The decision for that is based on whether Cambridge schools are closed. Does this seem likely?

  39. Quick peak at 12z NAM for Sunday night into Monday. Looking like a 4-7 inch snowfall for most of SNE the exception Cape and Islands.

  40. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Pretty pathetic snow growth here in northern CT this am. Haven’t even gotten into what I what consider moderate snow at any point and the back edge of snow is fast approaching. Haven’t been out to measure yet but doesn’t look like much more than an inch. Definitely did not meet WWA criteria here.

  41. Nobody asked for this but here is the evolution of the channel 4 forecast. Including this morning. (top row: 1st, 2nd – second row: 3rd, 4th – third row; 5th, 6th)

    https://i.imgur.com/oaR7Mj4.jpg

    (Only map I hadn’t posted to this very blog yet was the sixth.)

      1. Nice work Dr.

        In the grand scheme of things including the fact that this is weather after all which is probably the most dynamic thing visible to us, this is pretty damn good if you ask me. The problem is in the messaging and public penchant for taking drama and blowing it up.

  42. Good morning, my friends, and thanks, TK! 🙂

    4.5″ with light snow in Taunton.

  44. Jpdave – regarding NWS’ map for Sun/mon snow – based on the top it says “3/2 7am to 3/5 7am” – so technically they are including snow from today??

    1. Actually it said through 3/3 at 1AM. MOST misleading, but good catch. 🙂

      They really PISS me off sometimes.

      And the maps SHOULD only be for ONE EVENT at a time. GIMMIE a break.
      ABSURDITY to the nth degree.

  45. Thank you, TK.

    On the bright side, rather than focusing on the fact that real snowstorms have eluded us and will continue to do so, we’re experiencing at least a taste of winter in recent days and in the near to mid-term future. Increments of snow every 2 days or so, sustained cold. If the flip occurs mid month spring will feel welcome to most as a result of having been through a relatively cold and somewhat snowy period. That’s my take.

    2. Works for me, Joshua. I would celebrate today no matter the total. I drank coffee while enjoying the beauty of the world in winter. I cleaned. I’m back enjoying the beauty and pondering breakfast which I think will be an omelet with smoked salmon, Brie and asparagus…..which I will enjoy while, well, you guessed it….watching.

  46. As this mornings event shows, 3k NAM continues to blow away all other guidance especially if you get away from snow tool maps and use precip amounts, positioning, and timing and then apply meteorology.

  48. End of snow is collapsing Eastward quite rapidly.

    Looks like about 1 1/2 inches here. Perhaps we make 2 inches. 2 1/2 at a stretch and a long stretch to make 3 inches. 🙂

      1. Looks that way, but who knows.
        It looks like while collapsing to the East, it wants to throw
        bands NW towards the city???? Watching….

      1. Either post 2 maps, one for each event OR just post this event and when over, post the next map. What are they thinking????

    1. Love that tune. Yup, we wanted a blizzard, but got a few inches. What we need, but not what we want. 🙂 🙂

      1. I am so enjoying the Beatles pandora station. Song by Stevie Now Elton. Another Stones….under my thumb.

        1. Futsal is a sport that is a derivative of soccer and played with five-man teams on a basketball style court with no walls and a smaller, low-bouncing ball.

          1. I am coordinating and playing futsal with my students this week as part of National Foreign Language Week!

  56. The satellite off New England this morning is textbook worthy. Classic coastal “bomb” cyclone development in progress. Had this developed just slightly sooner and 25 miles further west, it’d be a coastal New England blizzard. A very close call.

  58. Not to beat a dead horse and forgive punctuation issues and any run on because I’m voice texting this. during my errands this morning while having WBZ radio on I have heard the second storm referred to as a blockbuster and I have heard promos run by the station for the big one to storm punch this weekend. I guarantee you that neither of those were prompted by a meteorologist in charge of putting together forecasts for the station including AccuWeather. that is a product of people not educated in what is actually going on being responsible for the cover of the book or the part that sucks you in. and that ladies and gentlemen is media hype at its finest.

    On top of that just in the last few minutes I heard the same station have one meteorologist on with a 4 to 8 forecast for the second event followed immediately by an old recording of Eric Fisher predicting 5 to 9.

    and to add insult to injury the reporter that came on live just after that about this first event was asking where the blizzard was she expected to wake up to….

    1. Just sad. And on the wbz blog the Mets are taking really nasty hits from the same uneducated audience. Things don’t change. How long ago was whw born to get away from that.

      2. I think of us as having three major stations. And the dictates of management are the same on all three. It is truly sad they put the Mets in a position to be blamed.

    1. No. This thing is out of here soon. Disturbance from the west will add a little frosting atop the cupcake tonight.

  61. Still flurrying here in Coventry, CT but the sun is trying to poke through now. Just went out measure and we received 1.7”. Big woof. Not…

  62. 12z 3k NAM looks nice for tomorrow night. All snow pretty much everywhere except the Cape and islands and it gets some heavier stuff in here for awhile. Based on what I am seeing it looks like a general 4-8” with least amounts NW and higheast amounts SE.

      2. Not so much a turn of events, as these events have not transpired yet. It’s a shift in a model forecast. Let’s take it for what it really is. 🙂

  64. https://imgur.com/a/WZGvIrx current thoughts. 5-10 to the south favoring lower end of the amounts, there will be a band of 7 to 10 inches but many will be on the lower end closer to 5 and 6 inches. Same with the 2 to 5 area. favor the lower amounts but favor the higher amounts closer to the pike in eastern/central mass. Could even go lower in my opinion.

  68. #’s look ok when verified (so far) against the current update issued at 2:50AM. I’m happy with it. Totally not surprised I had to cut large areas out of my first call of 3-6 and confine that to a much smaller area. The pattern screams this result and should not be surprising in the least.

    1. Looks as if major Mets did the same on final calls and they seem to be pretty much on target.

      You did great TK….as always.

  70. Eastern sections may be able to squeeze out another 1/2 inch and then that’s all she wrote. We’re onto Cincinnati a la Sunday night/Monday.

  71. I think I’m turning into Coastal. I went to the library and they are closed due to weather. I started to say “back in my day…” angrily lol

      1. Hingham. Then I was like “ok maybe I will go to cohasset” nope. Closed. And others around here.

  74. I think there is also some general confusion of the cumulative totals for both storms being achieved today. Then add in any forecast of 6-12 and all that is heard is 12 and then through the power of the raging brush fire that is the internet and social media all of SNE is getting a foot.

    I think I wrote here 2 days ago that today’s was most impactful for a line south and east of Franklin to Quincy and Worcester west would barely see anything at all.

    Better focus tomorrow into Monday- a general 3-6” West to East. 8” amounts possible areas south and east where mixing does not occur. 10 hour system say 8pm-6am. With an hour or two leeway depending on where you live west to east.

    1. Thank you, JMA. I always appreciate your words of wisdom and apologize for not mentioning it enough

      1. Oh Vicki – please don’t apologize for anything. I am such an inconsistent contributor here, I earn no meritorious praise. This place is all about TK’s near peerless forecasting accumen and the community of passionate folks he has assembled.

        1. It is about Tk….but it takes a village and you are one of the folks who keeps that village standing. 🙂

  75. Getting another burst of light snow here in Coventry. Noticing the next round of snow associated with tonight’s disturbance now showing up on radar in western NY…

  76. A little note for model watchers…
    3km NAM, the WRFs, and GFS have been doing pretty well in the short-term. HRRR to some degree as well with this one. We’ll see on the next. I am also finding the positive snow depth change maps on tropical tidbits more useful than snowfall forecast maps, with applied meteorology of course. 😉

    1. Yes snow depth maps generally a good alternative and only more so as we head to into the “spring” snow season. Kuchera notably bad during the late winter / early spring.

      I am in full agreement with you model performance assessment. ECMWF and the EPS have sniffed out systems but otherwise have done very little well this winter.

  77. I’m heading to Danvers for a lunch meeting with a few people. Snow in Woburn is just over 1 inch at this point, maybe 1.5 now.

  79. About 6″ at the snowstick here. Some of it already melting and/or compacting. Still a light snow through brightening skies. Temp hovering around 34.

  81. TK, could the last update of the euro been part of the reason for its cruddy performance this winter?

  82. Final totals for this morning’s Mega Snow Storm.
    2.5 inches

    Season total for JP: 27.4 inches while Logan is somewhere around 16 inches.
    Waiting for today’s numbers.

  84. 2.5 inches in Quincy, but it surely is compacted. Just came in from shoveling. The snow has a buttery feel to it, compared to the last snowfall which was powdered sugar. The cleared paved surfaces are remaining wet, despite the fact that it appears to be snowing. Barely above freezing.

    I’ve noticed that snow melts fastest on the concrete surfaces first, then black top, and brick is the last to give it up. Dave Epstein mentioned this morning that the sun angle is high enough now that it can melt the snow even through the clouds. Hurray March sun!

    Looking forward to the pattern change and warmer temps. I would love to retire my winter coat for the season…

    Thanks for all the great forecasting from everyone, but especially TK. You make me seem cool!

  85. I’d say just a tick under 2 for here. Sure looked light as some instances son in law was just sweeping it off walkway with shovel upside down. Don’t hold me to that though, I wasn’t the one shoveling

      1. Almost to my projected 15″ variance at the beginning of the season. Perhaps tomorrow’s storm will get us there. Of course, that will be just about the only thing I got right with this year’s snow predictions 🙂

        1. If tomorrow’s comes close to verifying, I will be closing in
          on my season prediction for JP which was something
          like 36 or 38 inches. I don’t remember exactly.

          If I pick up 5 inches tomorrow night, I’ll be up to
          32.4 on the season.

  91. Euro is a little funky for tomorrow night. Don’t know if it is the Euro itself or my service.
    Surface map looks like it should be all snow for boston, but precip type shows
    a snow/mi line through boston. Snow map shows 2 inches and then NO snow where
    precip type map shows snow.

    I’m going with the NAMS and RDPS. 🙂

      2. The F5 service snowmaps have been completely f’ed up lately, showing no snow accumulation in areas near a rain/snow/mix line. I haven’t even been bothering to post them for this storm because each one has been totally screwed up.

          1. I think I am going to cancel F5 next season and go with the weathermodels/Ryan Maue service

            Saw the HRDPS …looks great!

            1. I may follow suit. Lately my service has
              been irritatingly slow and it is NOT my
              internet service as that is perfectly fine
              for any other site.

  92. 12z Euro looked pretty good to me. Track outside Nantucket and has the rain/snow line now only penetrating into RI and SE MA nearly up to Boston which is probably still too far north. It’s slowly adjusting.

    QPF map is up with 0.7 to 0.9″ in most areas:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_03/ecmwf_precip_24_boston_10.png.a89fba8e157d562c0955d3f6d36e1a88.png

    That would be good for 6-10″ where it stays all snow, if it is correct.

    The one thing that this storm has going for it is that pretty much all the snow that falls will be during the dark, no March sun angle will have no impact on cutting back the totals.

    2. Take a look at the 12Z HDRPS…Shows about 1 inch qpf for tomorrow night.
      It doesn’t have a 24 hour precip or snow option, only total so it is polluted
      with today’s. Have to try to remove today’s from it. Looks to me to be about
      1 inch qpf.

          1. I guess I should prepare my robo call annoucement to close the office Monday?????
            🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. All the Canadian guidance looks good for tomorrows system. So does the Euro and 3k NAM. Now we wait to see when/how it manages to all goes down the tubes in the next 24 hours………. 🙂

      1. And it will for sure. 🙂

        Waiting for TK and JMA to chime in with the usual,,,
        numbers too high, System too progressive…mix will get involved…and so forth. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  94. My only complaint is that this super active and progressive pattern is producing enough liquid to make my wall leak again. The ground is so saturated, and I live beneath it. Tomorrow night will of course add to the leaking. Oh well.

    I think the big question is not whether we flip in mid March – that is likely – but whether we actually dry out consistently. I’m very skeptical about that. It seems like up to 3 weather systems a week are more or less the norm for at least the past 6 months: Cutters, inside-runners, clippers, coastals, over-runners, frontal snow squalls and showers. You name it, we’ve got at least a couple on any given week.

  95. NWS pulling a Debbie Downer (I think they are categorically WRONG!) with tomorrow
    night’s system

    This would bring the heaviest snow across Northern CT and
    Western/Central MA…and parts of NW Rhode Island. The
    northeast/ocean surface flow at the height of the storm would
    continue to favor snow changing to rain along the coast and possibly
    reaching into interior southeast MA/RI depending on how the coastal
    front sets up.

      1. 1:52 PM Update, but wording could easily been from earilier
        in the day.

        Another pet peeve of mine, if there is an update, be an update, don’t REPEAT OLD INFORMATION)(!@#*&!@*(#&(!*@&#(*&!

        1. Yep, they typically copy and paste from previous discussions. That discussion has not been updated.

      1. OOPS that total was for interior.
        Boston is in the watch, but for Boston and along I95 corridor,
        totals of 4-10 inches.

      1. Ha Ha. Wouldn’t surprise me to see it snowing like crazy here
        and RAINING at the arm pit, I mean airport. 🙂

  96. I would expect those watches to go over to warnings later this afternoon. Other than the GFS most of SNE does meet warning criteria which is 6 inches or greater.

    1. At the very least tomorrow night’s system, whether it verifies or not, is offering
      the most excitement of the entire Winter.

  97. Logan up to 15.9 for the season. They might get to the 20 inch mark for the season.
    BDL up to 31.3 inches for the season. Will see if they could come close to the season average of 40.5 inches.

          1. We’ll see though if the Berkshires don’t gobble it up before it gets to the coastline.

  99. I think 2-4, 3-5 is the smart way to play it.

    The system is weaker, more strung out than the one shown just 48 hrs ago.

    Even though at night, boundary layers near or just above 32F, especially at the coast.

    And, since the overall pattern is similar, I’ll venture to guess the 00z models tony gut and the 12z models tomorrow morning will adjust downward, as the models did for this event within 24 hrs.

    2. Well thank you sir for providing today’s “Debbie” services.
      You’re probably correct. Once again, we’ll find out.

    1. Yes. Though perhaps flash freeze is a slight exaggeration. There will be a freeze – let’s call it a less than flashy freeze that will create very slick conditions on sidewalks and side streets. Teens late Monday night, and single digits in the burbs late Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday nights.

      By the way, in Back Bay the snow today has certainly not shut off. It’s light and steady, and not so light that you don’t see it. Had this event happened overnight I think there would have been an additional 1-2 inches of accumulation.

      1. it be a about darn time that my area gets the most snow out of the system instead of areas to the north and areas to the south 🙂

  104. Checking in from Southie. I live 3.4 miles from the departures ramp at Logan. I measured 2 inches, right on the dot. Sorry, JPDave.

  108. It was 2.6 inches in Back Bay. Very different snow consistency than the other day. Much more water-laden.

    Careful on sidewalks, everyone, especially brick. I slipped and fell and saw one other person to the same on my walk to CVS.

  109. Joshua I don’t think the medical area received that much but that’s just my opinion

  110. Tk sorry few questions- how much for Longwood zone about & do we have a rough start & finish time . Thank you I made it to the game go bruins.

    1. I think fairly wet in general, with the lowest inland elevations and coastline having a fairly wet snow.

  113. Eliote Abrams retired yesterday from Accuweather. Did not know that. Bernie just mentioned it on is parascope.

    1. Friendly man, Elliot Abrams. Nice voice, too. I miss listening to LaPierre followed by Abrams on WBZ. New Englander Gary LaPierre and Philadelphian Elliot Abrams: Distinct accents, resonate voices.

      1. I wondered why I haven’t heard him on air lately. He will be missed by many WBZ radio listeners like myself. Thanks Matt.

        I bet HM isn’t far behind if he hasn’t retired already as well.

      2. Coastal RI, immediate south coast of MA, Cape and Islands mix on the NAM. That would keep totals down there.

      1. Yeah, rest up. Unfortunately looks like another long night for you tomorrow. Roughly an 8PM – 6AM overnight storm.

        1. 8:00 ugh that’s to early . I just got home from the Game bruins win 1-0 now I can rest . Good night .

          1. 8PM onset probably more so for my area, might be a bit later (9-10PM) for Boston.

            Glad you saw a good game!

  120. 1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.3” = 2011-12
    3. 10.3” = 1972-73
    4. 12.7” = 1979-80
    5. 14.9” = 1994-95
    6. 15.1”= 2001-02
    7. 15.5” = 1988-89
    8. 15.9” = 2018-19**
    9. 17.1” = 2006-07
    10. 18.1” = 1985-86

  121. I think after this system it this winter will not be in the top 10 for least snowiest winters on record.

  123. 00z GFS with a sizable shift NW in track. Gets a nice burst of heavy snow into southeast areas, especially SE CT, RI, and SE MA up to about Boston:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019030300&fh=36

    Kuchera Snowmap with a sizable uptick for eastern CT, RI and much of eastern MA with 6″+ in these areas:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019030300&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  125. I would expect a lot of these winter storm watches in SNE will be converted to winter storm warnings tomorrow.

    1. I agree, may be low end warning criteria in some areas but should be enough to upgrade most of CT, RI and eastern MA with the NWS 4AM update.

      1. For RI and southeast MA up to Boston, I would agree 8:1 is more reasonable. N & W of Boston, 10:1 or even a bit better will be achieved.

  130. 00z UKMET more amped as well.

    Nice trends if you want snow with most of the 00z model suite tonight inside 24 hours. Though still plenty of time for this thing to go down the tubes 🙂

  131. After reviewing the 00z guidance, my direct remains unchanged.

    The majority of models are making the same error, over forecasting snow.

    It won’t be necessary to consider the ECMWF which is hearby dismissed from service for this event.

  133. 00z Euro QPF map delivers 0.5-0.75 QPF, highest in SE MA.

    That would support 5 or 6″ most places.

  136. Pretty good NWS discussion, containing the possible reasons of snowfall being less than projected.

    I’d be 3-5 region wide (except south coast and Cape : lower) and somewhere in a SW to NE strip that gets a heavier band, has a chance at 6-7. Also favor elevated areas of Worcester county for 6-7.

    Even at night, especially easternmost Mass, if the intensity drops off to light snow, it may not accumulate during those times.

    1. Also agreed, 3-5″ is where I am at too. Now watch, I’ll get blown out of the water somehow.

    2. I don’t understand why snow would not accumulate at night. There is plenty of snow on the ground now which would stick right too. Are you talking about roads or if the temps above freezing?

      1. Sure, roads and pavement moreso over snow covered landscape.

        Especially easternmost Mass though, may be 33F or even a 34F in the ‘height’ of the storm and if the precip is a lighter intensity, in those times, accumulation will be tough, in my opinion.

      2. Another factor is that temps are going to be in the low-mid 30s throughout the entire storm then rise near 42 tomorrow. Not to mention todays temps in the 40s so the ground will be warm when snow arrives this evening. Any accumulating snow is only when intensity picks up which may not be all that long.

        2. disagree. The snow will have NO trouble accumulating.
          It’s the ratio and actual qpf that will limit accumulation.
          Those are the keys. We shall see what the final total
          is.

    2. Good morning JpDave.

      How much melted do you think it will take to accumulate 5-8 inches of snow, in this particular system?

      1. I think it would take somewhere in the range of .7 to 1.0, factoring in boundary layer temps and the necessary intensity.

        Pattern is too progressive. I’m think more like .4 to .7 melted.

      2. Probably damn close to 1 inch.

        SREF has 0.94 inch to produce the 5.42 inches for Boston.
        Ratio nearly 5:1.

        I honestly I think the ratio may be a tad better, especially just
        back from the coast. Here in JP should be 6 or 7:1, and if lucky
        8:1. Not going to see 10:1 here.

        Boston may only get near 5 inches. But I bet We get 6-7+ here in JP. It shall be interesting to see.

        Let the snow begin!!!

  139. I am getting the feeling this will have more of a late March/early April feel. Just barely able to support snow. As soon as the event is over, melting begins.

          2. Actually I didn’t misspell it but rather my fingers didn’t get the proper message from my brain. 🙂

  141. This storm is going to be flying outta here by 7:00 AM tomorrow I believe. Other than that MLK ice event, we really haven’t had a long duration event this winter is that I can recall.

  143. Boston needs 4.1 to get to 20 inches for the season.
    In the battle of NY and BOS for snowfall Boston leads barley 15.9 inches to 15.5 inches for NY.

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