Sunday Forecast

465 Comments

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
The next in a series of low pressure areas to impact the region in one way or another over the first few days of March will dump a generally moderate snowfall on southeastern New England in about a 12 hour period from mid evening tonight to Monday morning. With not a ton of cold air to work with, a snow/rain line will work at least onto the South Coast and possibly a bit further north – will monitor. However, with the majority of the snow occurring at night, it will accumulate more easily than the snow from Saturday’s event did. Once this gets beyond the region, a disturbance still passing through at high altitudes may help create a few additional snow showers later Monday. We will then be visited by a very cold air mass for Tuesday through Thursday, with mainly dry weather, however a disturbance will bring some cloudiness and a risk of some snow showers about Wednesday, which will likely be the coldest of the 3 days as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops southwest to northeast, may turn to rain South Coast. Lows 25-32 but may rise later along the South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow except rain or snow South Coast, ending southwest to northeast during the morning. Breaking clouds later in the day but still a risk of a few snow showers. Expected snow accumulation, 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Islands, 3-5 inches South Coast and southwestern NH, 5-9 inches elsewhere. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
Colder than average for the period. Low pressure areas passing by with snow/mix threats March 8, 10, and 12.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Moderating temperatures during this period. A system may bring some light precipitation about mid period.

465 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. TK – Can you give a timeline on the heaviest? My commute is 5-7 AM.

    I donโ€™t get snow days. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Iโ€™m curious as well. Son does not get them either. He drives RI to Boston with a timeframe just a tad earlier than yours. Although he works a 10-6 OT shift most Sunday shifts before his usual 6-3 day shift. Tonight might be a good time to do it.

      1. Well, I work in Security 7AM-3PM so we are expected to come in unless very extreme conditions like T shut down or statewide travel ban.

          1. Well not the same….he has to be there regardless. I remember when the marathon bomber was in Watertown etc that he has to go in. I was a wreck with him driving when the city had shut down. They finally sent cruisers to pick up folks for their shifts.

      1. NBC 10 I bet will be the most accurate.

        Ch. 5โ€™s 6-9 inch range is deceiving. Right along immediate coastline (Logan) is in the lesser range. JPD and most neighborhoods are fine though for the most snow.

        NWS out of control as usual. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. I canโ€™t tellwhich one 10 is. On phone. 7 seems to have been most accurate of three majors. Although I need to start counting Pete on 10 as a major

          1. NBC 10 is in the lower left corner with Boston in the 3-6 inch range. My gut tells me that will verify for this event.

    1. Thanks TK! That would be great as 3AM is when I get up. I can have a quick breakfast and other things then shovel before I start my commute.

      Is this storm moving even faster than expected?

      1. No, just fast. It’s very progressive. And past experience tells me that it may be slightly faster than 12z-modeled.

  9. Yesterday I said a general 3-6 for this event with maybe a few places getting up to 8 and now probably would move to a general 4-7 west to east high and a trend back towards the lower end amounts along immediate coast due to a turn in the wind direction off the water.

    NAM/3KNAM/GFS/ECMWF remarkably consistent Springfield 0.4 Worcester 0.6 Boston 0.8. SE SNE looking at less around 1-3โ€ with many of those area getting more snow yesterday. (Hmmm…where did you here that might be the case?) Progressive nature should be fast with some sunshine developing late morning into the afternoon west to east, mixed with clouds and a passing snow shower.

    1. Just want to clarify my wording on accumaltions regarding west to east high amounts. Hartford Springfield Amherst in that 4โ€ range. Williamantic Worcester Fitchburg in that 6โ€ range and 495/128 in the 7โ€ range and then we get back to the 4โ€ type amounts along the immediate east facing coastline.

  12. This morning Barry mentioned his concern about the rain/snow line sneaking up the coast as far as Plymouth. I just hope it doesnโ€™t sneak into Boston. A rainorama would be awful for my commute.

    When that concern comes from a met who placed a widespread 5-8 inches makes ME concerned. This particular winter an all snow event for SNE is too good to be true as it is.

  13. Hey, everyone!
    Hope everyone is well.
    I know everybody’s focused on tonight and tomorrow, but, boy. is it a glorious morning!!
    It will be DST this time next Sunday! Sunset will be at 6:45!!! Speaking of which, it was a beautiful sunset last night as the clouds were finally breaking!!!

    Remembering the big storm a year ago (March 2) with hurricane-force winds, massive power outages and excessive storm surges. SSK, I know you have mentioned this a couple of times.

    Vicki, I think you’re right. I think tomorrow will be the first “no-school” day of the year.

    Enjoy this beautiful Sunday morning, everyone!

    Thank you, as always, TK!

    2. Good morning captain. I added a storm door a week or so ago. I also added a chair in my hallway. The front of the house has full sun most of the day. I so enjoy weekend mornings when I can sit and have coffee, listen to music and feel the sun. What a day!

      Re a year ago….it was only time this neighborhood has lost power. And was another spectacular day. What a world we live in.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=A3yCcXgbKrE

      I donโ€™t suppose the song is a surprise. One of my all time favorites.

      1. Great song, Vicki. My dad loved Louis Armstrong and jazz and passed his love of music to me!

        Speaking of music, I posted a a YouTube video a couple weeks ago (“Mashed Potato” by Dee Dee Sharp) to describe that morning’s snowfall. I had jokingly mentioned that we needed gravy and stuffing.

        I was listening to oldies on WATD a couple of weeks ago and they played the Dee Dee’s follow-up to “Mashed Potato”, “Gravy (For My Mashed Potatoes”:

        I kid you not:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBZSEfLvmQI

        Feel free to dance with your second cup of coffee!!!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. Thank you, TK.

    The parade of systems continues. Even when it’s dry later this week it won’t necessarily be all dry as snow showers will be possible. And then it looks like a veritable barrage of precipitation events starting next weekend.

    1. Quite noticeable now. This will also help in tomorrow’s cleanup before the much colder air arrives.

  20. Totally agree. Also water temperatures around Block Island and south of Montauk stayed consistently around 40ยฐ all winter long.

  21. Will be office be closed tomorrow or not, ah that is the question.
    New Excecutive Director tends to only want to close IF the Governor declares
    a state of emergency and I don’t see that happening.

    We shall see. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. If the ED goes by that, the office will be open. This ain’t no emergency, it’s a moderate snowfall. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    2. Framingham state used to use that as a guideline also. Never saw the sense since they have a ton of day students from all over. Apparently, they eventually figured it out since it is no longer a guideline….or wasnโ€™t last I knew

  22. Why do I have this funny feeling I should have left 3-6 and not added an inch? Ah well, look who’s haggling himself over 1 inch of snow that won’t make a difference really…

        1. He’s the Shelby Scott of The Weather Channel. The running joke is you know a bit storm is coming if Cantore is nearby. Of course that isn’t necessarily true. They send him out to cover interesting weather. It doesn’t always mean “big storm”.

          1. Thanks TK. I donโ€™t have cable. Based on comments here about TWC over the years, it is probably just as well.

  25. Good morning and thanks TK.

    I think you made the right move adding an inch to your range. Models still looking good this AM. I think most areas are going to “thump” at 1-2″/hr for 2-3 hours after midnight despite the progressive nature of the storm and most will end up in the 6-7 inch range.

    1. I’m ok with the range for now, but I like the lower side of it for the majority.

      1. More accurate than the 10 to 1 maps as they factor in ratios. Late season you need to be careful with the higher sun angle limiting accumulations but that is a non factor with this storm

  27. TK – Will any flash freeze hold off until after sunset tomorrow? I will likely have cleaning up to do when I get back from work.

  29. Latest Sref up to 5.97 for Boston with 1.07 uiinch qpf

    Overall storm snow ratio: 5.6:1

    Now that is some heavy duty snow and would be the equivalent of about 15 inches
    of 15:1 snow.

  30. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1) Most static electricity is eliminated only when the indoor relative humidity โ€ฆ
    A. matches the room temperature
    B. exceeds 35%
    C. doubles the dewpoint
    D. equals 100%

    2) A thick uniformed-layered cloud at low altitude from which rain or snow often falls is called โ€ฆ
    A. mammatus
    B. nimbostratus
    C. cumulonimbus
    D. scud

    Answers later today.

    1. Btw, if qpf ends up less say aroun 0.8 inch then we’re looking at 4 1/2 inches of
      nearly cement,

      1. Taking that into account, 4-7 inches is right on target.

        Well inland, it will be a drier snow, but then qpf will be less
        and there is the rub for accumulations. Higher qpf => lower ratios.
        Lower qpf => higher ratios.

        Fun stuff.

  33. It may be a “moderate” snow storm, but 6 inches of cement will have a very high impact.
    I’d rather a foot of the dry stuff.

  37. So the best guess is the Longwood area could get up to six inches with it arriving tonight between 9-11 and ending early Monday morning

    1. Something like that. I see it arriving around or shortly after 9 PM.
      Done around 7ish in the morning. However, models vary with the timing,
      9 PM to 7 AM is a rough guideline.

      Longwood area something like 6 inches sounds good. Could be 4 or 5 could be 7 or 8. You got the idea.

      It will be the HEAVY WET STUFF and I mean HEAVY!

          1. Also old salty since you are answering my questions so fast what is the general thinking for down here in pembroke area . I am just getting up so trying to find out the scoop

              1. About the same as Boston, only
                down there there is a slight chance
                that you will get into the mixing zone. Will be close, depending on
                the model you are looking at.

                Barry thought that it would get up
                to about Plymouth.

                This is as far as the latest HRRR brings the mix.

                https://imgur.com/a/ax7ash6

                Based on this, no mix in Pembroke, but something to keep an eye on.

                1. Absolutely phenomenal old salty I Canโ€™t thank you enough . My so who does not need to make up snow days is dying for a snow day lol

  38. Captain. I donโ€™t recall Gravy but knew it sounded familiar. Pretty much like her Mashed Potato Time

  40. Nice day today with plenty of sunshine. Now sitting back and waiting to see what this system brings.
    Battle of NY and BOS for snowfall is still close. Boston with a slim lead having 15.9 inches to NY 15.5 Will NY be in first place after this system or will BOS still hold a lead?

    1. It will be interesting. I wouldnโ€™t be surprised if NYC takes the lead taking into account the marine influence of Logan possibly cutting down accumulation a bit.

      Arenโ€™t NYC climo stats/snow amounts taken in Central Park?

        1. If I had my way, Boston climo stats & measures would be at Boston Common or Public Garden rather than at Logan. Thanks Jimmy.

  43. WRF-NMM probably had the best snowfall forecast for yesterday’s event. Quick eyeball verification.

      1. I think this post has been up awhile Vicki Iโ€™m a little behind on my information this morning as I slept in to prepare for round two . Iโ€™m also dealing with a lot of texts coming in from customers wanting to book estimates.

  47. A lot of juice involved. Higher end totals should be achieved. Looking at radar a lot convection involved and GOM. If we had any blocking we would talking about a monster. I like 6-10. Ratios will be higher than forecast imo

    1. This is beginning to look what was have been patiently (well not so patiently)
      waiting for…(dangling preposition purposeful )

      1. Where the Friday event was backing off in the last 12 hrs of runs, this seems to be increasing some in the 12 hrs before the height of the event.

        1. Some? I’d say so. I think this one means business.
          Too bad it is so progress and will likely have low ratios.

  50. I have a feeling somebody is going to hit a 10-12 in the Boston area if those models keep going in that direction. Enjoy the day off teachers of WHW.

    1. That link is zoomed in…notice a ribbon of blue for 4-6 tucked in across most
      of the inner city (not for JP)…. I didn’t notice that until I zoomed it.

  53. I’d up my biggest band of snow to 5 – 7 and within that, I’d not spot 8 or 9 inch amounts.

    I think I’m a bit concerned about Hingham to Plymouth, WSW out to the providence area for an extremely heavy weight 4-6 inches of snow that may have power outage potential.

  54. Upon review of the 18z data (so far), no changes to the amounts contained in the blog update. And yes I’m aware of what “the models” are doing. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. On the weekends they update far less and tend to wait and tease new maps for evening broadcasts.

  59. The surface reflections on the HRRR make no sense. It is creating intense bands of precip in the Hudson River Valley, CT River Valley, Quinebaug Valley, Blackstone Valley, and Merrimack Valley and shadowing the adjacent hills. Thatโ€™s not quite how it works….

    1. No, no it is not. Heat transfer issue perhaps? Related to convection possibly?

      1. It is picking up on downstream convection and doesn’t know what to do with the rapid latent heat transfer.

        1. Bingo. That’s it. And it’s showing up on a lot of models. It almost spells itself out plainly on the 3km.

          1. BTW look at the difference between the straight up snowfall forecast and the positive snow depth change maps on the 18z 3km NAM. Almost like 2 different storms. ๐Ÿ˜‰

            1. NAMs are doing the same thing thus the 60% jump in QPF which would really only happen if the whole thing came further north and west and would make for much more of a mixing and even rain scenario.

              Snow map junkies are about to have their weather porn and forecasters who can’t forecast on synoptics, actual real time climate data, and can’t detect model fiction are going to have some issues.

              1. And then the rest of them will get tossed the the “they never get it right” category….

                1. Just looked at the snow on ground and the net change in snow depth is about half of what it should be if we picked up the kind of snowfall it is advertising.

  60. Boston schools are cancelled tomorrow. No city of Boston parking ban though, thankfully. Doesn’t help the shoveling but it does keep the regularly scheduled parking Hunger Games and not the elevated snow emergency version.

  62. JMA… Had to take it here because WordPress and its limited amount of replies on one comment. Yes, that’s what I was referring to. Red flag!

    I can see the amateur pages being updated now with “big increase in snowfall!” type headlines. And these are the ones that will end up going viral. Oh boy…

    2. BTW I am curious on how ICON handles this. It’s been kind of sneaky decent with some of these events, but not too many people pay attention to it.

      1. I will check it out. I almost never do. As you know, pretty much a refined primitive I am. Keep it to the 00/12 GFS/ECMWF/NAM and their ensembles except the SREF (we broke up about 3 years ago.) This year have used the CFS for longer term thinking. I do the HRRR after event onset some but pretty much ignore almost everything else. Too much data out there and it erodes forecaster confidence.

        Thanks for the tip.

  63. It would have to snow like hell for several hours to achieve 10-12โ€+ totals. Thereโ€™s simply not enough time with the rate of speed this storm is moving. Would love the NAM or HRRR to verify but not buying it. HRRR did this a couple times recently with other storms and was out to lunch.

    1. Very much am enjoying the discussion. Canโ€™t wait to see if tv stations go bonkers.

      1. Always like that model. Time will tell.

        Lets post a model score card, but to be fair let’s compare the 0Z runs (not an 18Z run) to real results. Could be fun. I’ll see if I have some time tomorrow. Not sure just yet.

    1. Can make a case for that, as well as its snowfall map being much close to what actually takes place.

      1. Snow map calls for general 3-5 inches is all.
        I have been watch this “true Snow” and it has been consistently below real time results, imho. We shall see tonight/tomorrow.

        Personally, I think it needs a couple of inches added to it.

        NAMS and HRRR might be over doing it, but this baby is undersoing it.

        The RDPS is a good compromise between the ICON and the others.

        1. Yes I generally agree, but I’m reluctant to add more than 1-2 inches more to that 3-5, which basically becomes 4-7, or what I have in my original discussion above.

          1. Sounds reasonable. Personally I’d go with 5-8, but a met I am not. ๐Ÿ™‚

            Will be fund to find out.

  68. 18z RGEM starting to catch on. Made a nice correction from the over-inflated 12z.

  70. I don’t know if anyone has commented on this …..

    Lots of tornadoes in the south today and a couple of large, wedge tornadoes !

  72. NWS now going with 6-10โ€ throughout the entire Winter Storm Warning area in their 3:50pm update (up from 5-8โ€ earlier)

    2. Those are all safe forecasts and I can’t blame them. But I’ll tell you right now a while lot of people that don’t get the top number will probably call it a bust or trash the mets. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  74. Wellโ€”lots of schools will decide to cancel tonight based on those maps. Sounds like if TK and JMA were advising theyโ€™d say wait until morning…

    1. Nothing new now. I don’t even care what schools do. Let them do whatever they have to do. If they think canceling early is the way to go, so be it.

      1. My thinking was they were going to be a far lighter touch on cancelling since snow days have been almost nonexistent (and in fact in some districts theyโ€™ve had none.) and a lot of teachers would love at least one random day off in the middle of winter. lol. If this was 2015 and this was the sixth storm in so many weeks most schools would say suck it up.

        1. Close them all & stay off the roads & let us professional snow essential personnel do our job safely so when the storm is done it will be safe for all on the roads . Having people in our way is a very dangerous situation we deal with it every single storm cars , people vs heavy machinery.

    2. I think many schools cancel knowing parents need to make plans…unlike when we were kids, or at least I was, and one parent was home.

      1. That’s a huge factor. So many families either have one parent for everything or two parents that work. So yes it’s a risk, because sometimes forecasts don’t work out, but plans do need to be made. Finding the balance is never easy.

        1. Absolute truth. I always loved having my kids home. My kids are the same. A lot of pressure now for kids to be in school. And that is their right. Just as enjoying them home is mine. Just as long as it doesnโ€™t impact safety.

  76. Looking ahead a bit…

    GFS decent through about March 7, then starts to lose the detail.

    ECMWF is better today in terms of its upper pattern idea, but surface translation is questionable.

    I still like the idea of disturbances of some type impacting the region every other day, so early March 4, again March 6, 8, 10, and 12. The snow threats would be from the ones on March 6 and 8, although one looks like just flurries and the other is too far away to know anything of detail, but it reminds me at first glance a slightly colder version of what went by yesterday.

  77. The NWS accumulation range map that shows an area of 8-12″ is deceiving. Their accumulation range maps have set ranges….1-2″, 2-3″, 4-6″, 6-8″, then 8-12″. However, if you go to the expected snow map, the highest amount shown anywhere in the 8-12″ area is 9″ and the wording in their WSW product says 6-10″ region wide. Translation – they are not predicting greater than 10″ anywhere but people will see that map with 12″ at the top of the range and think those areas are getting up to a foot of snow.

      1. The need to add some ability for “human override” in those maps as a 6-9 or 10″ range on the map would have been much more appropriate here. The next ranges up from there get even more spread out – 12-18″ and 18-24″. If they were predicting 13″ for an area, the map would show 12-18″. Annoying!

        2. Not disagreeing but I have always had a problem dumbing down to the lowest common denominator…it may be in part why no one learns. Or maybe not

      2. There Is a very clear disclaimer. To me this is again the fault of any individual who chooses not to read.

        1. There is no disclaimer on the map on their winter storm page on the website. They only added that disclaimer manually to the tweet that was sent out.

          1. Then that is their error certainly. But the tweet would be correct. I suspect most see a tweet and only those who know enough go to the site. And I may be very incorrect on that

    2. Mark and Dr. I absolutely think the disclaimer should be on the NWS maps.

      I sent the map to my 10 year old grand. Granted she is 10 going on 40 and loves math so maps are familiar to her. I asked what she thought our area would get. She said 8-10. I asked why and she said…it says so in the corner.

      1. Agree that the tweet is clear in this case. But my point is that if their computer generated maps didn’t suck, they would not have to be manually adding disclaimers all over the place ๐Ÿ™‚ And in most cases I have seen, those range maps just get posted as is with no disclaimer.

  84. First flakes now flying here in Coventry CT. 35 degrees.

    This thing seems to be hauling in a bit ahead of schedule!

  85. Wankum 4-7 Boston but saying over by Brookline could have 8 & so on with locations . Has high totals through Brocton

    1. about what I am thinking but shift that jack pot area further Northeast into SW suburbs of Boston.

    3. Not appropriate language with young children reading. Figured Vicki would have agreed. Oh well….

  92. Answers to Todayโ€™s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1) Most static electricity is eliminated only when the indoor relative humidity โ€ฆ
    A. matches the room temperature
    B. exceeds 35%
    C. doubles the dewpoint
    D. equals 100%

    The correct answer is B.

    2) A thick uniformed-layered cloud at low altitude from which rain or snow often falls is called โ€ฆ
    A. mammatus
    B. nimbostratus
    C. cumulonimbus
    D. scud

    The correct answer is B. Congrats to all.

  93. Lightning strikes off the North Carolina coast. With the system deepening just off our coast, what are the chances someone sees some thunder snow ?

    1. Light snow reaching ground in a lot of CT now, but it’s quite light. Even just light through NYC area still. Lots of dry air to fight at first.

  97. Coventry schools just cancelled for tomorrow.

    Steady light snow here with a coating on the back deck. Road is wet. Temp dropped from 35 to 32 after the onset of snow. Dewpoint is 28.

  99. Lot of schools in CT deciding to close for tomorrow.
    NYC schools closed tomorrow and they don’t call school off for snow often.

  101. The Weather Channel is reporting that at least 14 people have died in Alabama tornadoes. Incredible damage in Lee County.

  102. Horrific tornado damage down south in Alabama and Georgia. TWC just reported 14 dead in Alabama and several more missing. This alone is more tornado deaths than all of last year in the US.

    Check out this damage video…

    Scott Fillmer (@scottfillmer)
    3/3/19, 6:20 PM
    This is what Lee Road 100 looks like just outside of Beauregard. Incredible destruction from this #tornado โฆโ€ช@spannโ€ฌโฉ

    pic.twitter.com/EE91ONjTbm

  106. Long shot I asked TK that question not too long ago. Scroll up a bit to 6:59 Tk responded. Snowing here now.

  111. Eric mentioned tonight that maybe half of the snow we get will be gone by day’s end โ€ฆ general melting, temps, angle of the sun, etc.

    3. All of mine is gone from yesterday. Iโ€™m on the sunny side of the street. Is that a song?

  112. The Celtics were driving me nuts and so, I happened to go to the Weather Channel.

    There had to be 15 tornado warnings going at once.

    They were focusing on a dangerous wedge tornado, I think in Alabama. The radar was showing the debris ball as clear as day and when they’d switch to the velocities, it was a very tight red,green couplet. At the time, they knew it was dangerous. It’s tragic that it resulted in this many fatalities.

    1. Nice to finally have an event where the models are adjusting up and not down in the 11th hour.

      So far so good here, steady accumulating snow and down to 30 with a dewpoint of 27. Just measured a half inch accumulation.

    2. The snowfall maps gradient is so close to marshfield/Plymouth. From 6 or 7 inches to 2 inches in miles.

      I think the easternmost side, Brant Rock may get 3 inches of drippy, wet snow and the western side of town, 2 to 3 miles west on rte 139, may get like 7 inches.

  116. It’s interesting to see the models still struggling with this as it’s getting underway. Another event to expose some of their shortcomings, especially regarding snow maps.

  117. Based on surface observations this thing is running behind and not producing very much at the front.

    Currently in Woburn I have a few very light raindrops falling.

  119. Snowing in pembroke Iโ€™m heading into work now Iโ€™ll update from the city.

  121. Steady light snow here in Dorchester but pavements, sidewalks, rooftops and cartops just wet.

  123. TK – You mentioned above the dates of March 6 & 8 for snow threats. Does that mean that March 10 & 12 are rain/mix threats?

  124. Now that 3km NAM has introduced a nice band of sleet, of course the snow #’s have come up. Let’s see if this lesson has been learned. Will be interesting to see the responses around social media on this one. “OMG OMG a foot of snow at the Cape Cod Canal! OMG!”

    2. Quick question — what are you expecting for the North Reading area, 6-8 inches or so? Thanks.

  125. Paved surfaces are too warm. There is a solid 1/4-1/2 inch on grass, tables, cars, etc but roads and walks are clear.

  126. Tom, you pointed out the serious weather news today – the deadly tornado in Alabama. So destructive and so sad. Early tornadoes will be fueled this year by the fact that a large dome of cold air dominates the entire northern tier while much warmer air prevails in the deep south.

    1. Yes, the pattern favors severe weather down there. And this is indeed the severe weather season in the Southeast. It comes from February to April there. The Plains see theirs from April to June. It’s not unusual at all to have severe storms and tornadoes in the Southeast during the last part of astronomical winter.

  127. The Celtics are finished, by the way. Dysfunctional. Miserable. Coach in over his head in terms of managing personalities. Diva Irving who I have never warmed to. I don’t even think he’s that good, because he doesn’t make others around him better. Hayward may never be the same. Horford on his last legs. The youthful exuberance of Tatum and Brown has sputtered for a variety of reasons. They’re a one and done team in the playoffs. Total rebuild coming, including a new coach.

    Bruins, on the other hand, are rolling. Not reliant on just one aspect of their game. Nice mix of youth and experience. Hungry. Great coach who knows how to manage personalities (granted, that is easier in hockey).

    1. I must say, the Celtics going down the tubes isn’t really fazing me at all. I’m not a basketball fan anyway. NBA is basically a joke, in my opinion. Go Bruins!

    2. I agree with everything about Celtics, except I differ with you on coach Stevens. Yes, I think he could have tried some things differently this season, but he’s been really good the first 5 seasons and I think he’s learning how to handle the big ego talents. I hope the Celtics keep Stevens. Change some of the players.

  128. Temp down to 34, solid dusting now, visibility is finally under 4.5 miles since I can’t see some radio towers in Burlington that I gauge for 4.5 miles or less.

    1. Thatโ€™s how it happened here. I sent it to you, TK

      Well, credit goes to JJ who sent it to Mark who sent it to me who sent it to you.

  129. Most of the outer Cape Cod region down to Nantucket are raining, but that area was marginal to start with. I think they will flip to snow then go back to rain a bit later.

    1. I saw York Maine forecast out of Grey ME had York starting as rain. Was surprised that far north but then what do I know

      1. Common in March/April storms with marginal temps, that the leading, light precip can be rain, when it gets heavy, turn to snow, the end as light rain.

  131. Just drive from Plymouth to Halifax and it was a moderate snow and back roads are heavily coated.

    1. I’m sure they are not done increasing their totals in response to the model snowfall #’s.

      2. TK, I’m surprised to see that Kingston closed school tomorrow. Is it your thinking that this area will only get around 3″ give or take an inch?

        1. I do have that area in a 4-7 band but I think they are thinking more about the timing of the heaviest and the time it takes to clean up. Besides there have been so few snow days this season they are using the cushion for caution.

  133. Moderate accumulating snow continues here in Coventry, CT. Just measured 1.5″. Temp 30 and dewpoint 28.

  134. NWS is talking about some snow band in Upstate NY that basically doesn’t exist, and how it’s coming to SNE. Well ok then.

      1. That would have made more sense. Unless the person writing the discussion doesn’t know where Upstate NY is.

  138. Amazing a month ago there was talk of least snowiest winter on record in Boston. After this storm this winter may not even be in the top 10 for least snowiest winters on record.

  139. NWS has expanded their 8-12″ area to include the majority of eastern CT, eastern MA, and northern RI…..

    NWS Bostonโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @NWSBoston

    [10p] Latest forecast snowfall amounts. Anticipating a period of 1-2″/hour snowfall rates developing towards midnight and persisting through roughly 6a. Biggest impact towards the Monday morning commute w/ snow tapering and clean-up ongoing. Check the roads before you go.

    https://twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1102407172250583042

    They no longer have that disclaimer on the 8-12″ area ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. They were talking about the area they had as 8-12 inches which included much of eastern MA too. But perhaps if they were referring to it being west at that time they should have mentioned it. ๐Ÿ˜‰

          Not a fan of the discussions coming out of that office tonight. Poorly done.

  140. Still nothing on roads in my neighborhood….literally the start of a dusting on front steps. It has to be the lack of mature trees to block todayโ€™s sun

  142. Just look at the firehose of heavy precip over NJ about to crush SNE. We’re really going to start cranking soon. Going to be a sleepness night I’m afraid ๐Ÿ™‚

  143. Latest update from the SPC:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0157.gif

    Mesoscale Discussion 0157
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2019

    Areas affected…Northern New Jersey northeastward into southern
    Massachusetts

    Concerning…Heavy snow

    Valid 040344Z – 040745Z

    SUMMARY…Light to moderate snow from northern New Jersey
    northeastward up the Atlantic coast will increase to heavy snow
    within the next few hours. Snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches per
    hour in the heaviest snow bands.

    DISCUSSION…Composite reflectivity shows increasingly heavy
    precipitation lifting north across New Jersey at 03Z as
    low-to-mid-level frontogenesis strengthens north of a surface low
    currently located near the southeast Virginia coast. As these
    heavier precipitation rates lift into the cold air, snowfall rates
    are expected to increase. At the peak, snowfall rates may exceed 2
    inches per hour in a corridor from near New York City to Providence,
    Rhode Island where slantwise instability will likely enhance
    localized banding.

    The latest high resolution guidance suggests warm air aloft will
    remain mostly offshore, but an eventual transition to freezing rain
    or rain is possible in eastern Long Island and far southeast
    Massachusetts.

    ..Bentley.. 03/04/2019

  146. NBC Boston’s “in-house” guidance went with 2-4 inch per hour snowfall rates and they apparently bought it. Oh well. Couple spots may pick up 2 inches in an hour at peak. Nobody is going to get 3 or 4 inches an an hour.

  147. Eric Fisher tweets:

    Our heaviest snowfall rates will be roughly 3am to 7am where the majority of snow accumulation occurs. Some 1-2″/hr rates and rumbles of thunder both possible.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1102400762511003649

    That’s about as ‘lock it in’ for 1″+/hr rates as you’re going to get. Only lasts about 3 hours but it’ll be snowing to beat the band during that 3-7a window.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1102403061555830784

    This thing is absolutely hauling. Very convective. Check out the cold to the west, too.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1102409750564749317

    1. Everything that he tweets there makes me feel pretty good about my forecast, actually.

        1. For most areas, yes. A spot 8 or 9 is possible. Double digits would need a longer duration event.

  149. Off to sleep. This will be the ONLY night I donโ€™t wake up at 3 am. Guaranteed

    At this rate, son in law will only have cars to clean off. No snow on driveway. …..and if I jinx that, and I suspect I will, donโ€™t tell him I said anything

  150. This is shaping up to be the biggest snowfall since November 15th – 16th for a good part of SNE.

    1. Tk do you agree with fisher heaviest precipitation between 3 & 7. Hearing also this is going to 11am in Boston could you verify that . Wet roads in Longwood zone

      1. Yes, earlier I thought the heaviest may be earlier, but I like 3-6AM. The accumulating snow will be about done in Boston around 7AM, no later than 8. It’s not going until 11. Not sure where that came from. Probably somebody’s craptacular weather app.

        1. So do you think it probably stays like this ( wet roads ) till around 3 am than the action starts . Yeah I heard 7 here earlier than someone said 11 not here & I was skeptical.

  151. Interesting that some of the obs around NYC are not reflecting what the radar says “should be” happening. Wonder why that is. I’d expect to see 1/4 miles visibilities. I’m seeing a lot of 1/2 to 3/4 miles there and reported “light snow”.

  153. It’s kind of funny tracking a moderate snow event as the winds are southeast to south across pretty much the entire region. Don’t see that too often. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  154. Quite a day for meteorologists up and down the eastern US today. What an awful tragedy in the Southeast. Many lives were lost, but many more surely saved by timely warnings and local media coverage.

    And of course, thereโ€™s the snowy side. Iโ€™ll be interested in seeing how SNE fairs, but Iโ€™d be lying if I thought I could provide insight. Iโ€™ve been casually trying to keep up with it the past couple days, but mostly have been locked in on the goings down here. Weโ€™ve been fighting the rain/snow line forecast for days. It ended up about 20 miles NW of the forecast. Unfortunately, as is often similarly the case in SNE, it is a very populous 20 miles. Just outside of Mt. Holly, NJ where I am, we had about an inch of cement followed by 33-34F and moderate to heavy rain which is continuing now. So if youโ€™re looking for snow, be thankful you arenโ€™t here ๐Ÿ˜‰

  155. I just wanted to mention that winds in Boston are from a southeasterly direction, as TK said above. He beat me to it. That is indeed relatively infrequent when we’re talking an all-snow event. I haven’t seen much accumulation at all where I live. We’ll see what happens. I’m going with 5 inches in Boston. Nice little storm, not a biggie by any stretch of the imagination. I now feel like the big one (a foot to 15 inches) may happen later this month, just when we think winter is all done.

    1. This is easily 2″/hour stuff! If we can keep this up for 3 hours, double digits is definitely achievable.

  158. Ryan Hanrahan tweet from 10 min ago:

    Enhanced KDP showing up in southern Connecticut now which is likely the result of efficient planar crystal growth about 13,000 feet up. Snowfall rates will be rapidly increasing across the state.

  159. 7.1″ Oxford, CT and 2″ in last hour.

    This is a real paste job. Lots of sagging branches across the state and starting to see some power outage reports.

  161. Imagine if we had a NAO in the negative phase with this storm coming at us. For a progressive system and looking at the totals which Mark is posting for CT were doing well in the snowfall department and still got another 4-5 hours left with this storm system.

    1. It would be a blockbuster for sure. Just cant get the blocking in place this year.

      Weird winter. Who would have thought our two biggest storms of the winter would have been in mid November and March?

      1. I am loving a storm this were having and not dealing with the ice.
        I just measured 6.5 inches and that snow is coming down. At this rate looks like I will be at the higher end of the 6-10 forecasted.

  163. Absolutely ripping here. 1″ in last 30 minutes.

    Looks like downtown Boston is about to get into the heavy stuff momentarily as well.

  164. Mark looking at the tweets from Ryan Hanrahan some good totals so far across CT
    7.5 inches Southbury 6.5 inches in Bethany 5 inches Southington 4 inches West Hartford. I just measured 6.5 inches.

    1. Nice JJ. Starting to get into a more moderate snow fall here in the city . Like you said very pasty .

  165. Nice! I’m up to 4.5″ and if it keeps snowing at this rate for another couple hours, should make a run at double digits

  166. South Shore Kid it is really pasting to everything. Anyone having to shovel this snow later today take it easy.

  167. I think I am going to bed shortly. It has been a fun storm so far and finally I am happy getting a snowstorm.

  168. Going to sleep for a few. Will do what I suggested would be my top increase earlier and add 1-2 for a total of 5-9 in the 4-7 area I had, and 3-5 in the 2-4 area I had, maybe under 3 on the islands and outer Cape. Night all. Be safe if you’re out and about!

  169. I’ll be up until the back edge of this comes through and then go to sleep for a bit. Cant go to bed now. It is absolutely POUNDING snow. I just measured 6″ (I was at 3″ at 12:30am) So snowing at greater than 2″/hour.

    1. Mark where are you again? East if Hartford? Using wunderground radar are you under the darkest green?

  171. 10″ reported Seymour/Oxford and 8″ in Middletown CT with another hour or two of intense snow rates to go in those locations. Going to be some 12″+ totals reported for sure. This is going to be a big time overachiever in some areas.

        1. I wonder if those yellow echoes make their way NE or if it will slide east as the storm pulls away

          1. The yellow sleet echoes just turn to dark green where it is snowing as they surge northeastward.

  172. Power just went out for about a minute and then came back on. Tolland, the town to my north, is now reporting outages. Numerous outages now in southern CT where they are getting absolutely destroyed with a foot of paste just inland from the shore.

  175. Holy Sh!t Heaviest snow of the night and radar filling back in to my west with heavy echoes. I think I’ve got a legit shot at a foot here, if not more. TREMENDOUS precip rates to my SW and probably 2 more hours of this to go!

  177. Lightning and thundersnow reported in North Cumberland RI!
    3.5โ€ Per Hour and 1.75โ€ in 30 minutes!

    6.5″ reported already in Weymouth with 3+ hours more to go there.

    WOW!

  178. Unbelievable 40-45 dbz radar echoes over extreme eastern CT and RI producing thundersnow and 2-4″/hour snow rates. This is surging northeastward towards Boston. It is going to start snowing like hell from Boston southward shortly.

    1. That snow in RI and far eastern CT is the heaviest snow I have seen on radar since that 5″/hour death band that came through in 2013 with Nemo. Incredible.

        1. I don’t think the ridiculous 3-4″/hour rates get that far north but they may tickle Boston.

    2. I hope we get thunder snow in the city . We are in the thick of it now. Buckle up this rodeo ainโ€™t for new comers

  179. Its a shame everyone is sleeping through this. Best storm of the year and some of the most intense snow rates we have seen in some areas in 6 years.

    Looks like pretty much everybody is going to get crushed with double digit snows. What an overachiever!

  180. Oh boy I hope those heavy bands tilt here quick. The storm is already looking to move more east than NE. Regardless i am impressed but i hope i can get under those heavy echoes

  181. 10.25″ Coventry, CT and looks like I’ve got another couple hours to go. Still heavy snow but nothing like what is going on in far eastern CT, RI, and southeast MA. Incredible snow rates from Boston south.

    If this were a powder bomb in January with high ratios we would be seeing widespread 15-20″+ totals.

  182. 14″ now Oxford, CT and still snowing.

    12,000 now without power in CT.

    North Cumberland, RI – snowing at 4″/hour for the second straight hour!! Up to 12″ OTG there and several hours more to go!

    NWS Norton office – 4″ in last two hours.

  183. Snowing like hell right now. Barry’s heaviest swath now 9-12″ and cuts through Boston.

  184. I’m guessing 6″ of very wet snow. Snow/sleet mix right now.

    Trees full of snow and look like they won’t take much more weight.

    1. Update from North Cumberland RI – 14.25″
      9″ of that fell in the last 2 hours and 20 minutes!

          1. None that I’ve seen. I’ll bet your area has more snow than me and I’ve got a solid 6″ with heavy snow/sleet falling.

  188. 11″ Coventry, CT with the final moderate snow band pivoting through. Got a bit more to go but looks like I am going to fall just short of a foot here. What a fun storm though…salvaged the winter! HRRR nailed it.

  189. Very impressive south and east of Worcester for sure. Maybe 7โ€ or so at my house. Maybe we end up on either side of 8.

  190. Barry, over the last 2 days, went from 5-8″ to 6-9″ to 9-12″ to now 10-14″ for the heaviest swath. he went from 9-12″ to 10-14″ in just the last 1/2 hour. His 10-14″ band cuts from the southwest (CT) to northeast through Boston.

  191. 11.5″ Newton
    12″ South Boston and 2.5″ in last hour
    12″ Weymoth

    As of 5AM and still pounding…

      1. That’s INSANE!!!!
        looking out the window, looks like about 8 here, but very difficult to tell.

  192. Good morning. Got the call a few minutes ago. My office has a delayed opening at 11AM.

    I had to send out the robo call to staff.

    Sine I only work til 12:30, I will work from home the head in.

    Snowing good here, but not the insane rates reported above. perhaps I missed the
    heaviest of it.

  193. Insane night Dave. Many 2-4″ per hour rates reported from Boston to the south and southwest. Some updated totals:

    13″ Newton
    13.5″ South Boston
    15″ North Cumberland RI

    11.5″ here in Coventry, CT and still snowing lightly….

  194. OMG you can take that 5.75 I said Sutton would get and double it. I had to look four times to make sure I wasnโ€™t seeing things. Did it snow four inches an hour at some point. I went to sleep at 11:30 with almost nothing and wow.

    1. Wow. Is it still snowing there? Still snow here but lite

      It is surely surreal. The stillness except for a cardinal singing is beyond beautiful.

      Do you have to go to work, Mark? Son in law had postponed business till 9 but he wonโ€™t go in now. Iโ€™m suspecting he closed except for emergency personnel.

      1. Iโ€™m laughing. May be wrong but looks as if you have a shovel by door to deck so you can get out and measure. I do as well but didnโ€™t want to wake kids upstairs so just stepped out.

        1. Yes! I shoveled after the first 6 hours to make it an official measurement. Compacted snow depth ended up about a half inch less.

          Just noticed a 13″ report on the NWS list from somebody else in Coventry. Most have been in the east portion of the town where they got into the better banding.

      2. Still flurrying but no longer accumulating. It is absolutely beautiful out there. Going out to clear the driveway now and will probably go into work later this am when things clear up a bit more.

  200. Some updated totals from American Weather posters:

    Weymouth 16.5″
    Newton 14″
    N. Cumberland RI 16.5″

    Logan is closed – all runways.

  201. I think it’s fair to say I finally got my butt handed to me on a forecast after a pretty decent run. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I am going to toss together a quick blog update now, link SAK’s update as well, then I have some clearing to do. Thankfully my neighbor is out there with his snow blower already. Helps! We’ll talk more about the dynamics and results during the day. ๐Ÿ™‚

    If you have to shovel, please be careful!

    1. This is as bad as ” the over hype” on the other side . Underselling is a problem too!Possibly worse

      1. We can never win anyway. Us mets are never right even when we are right. ๐Ÿ˜‰

        Actually in this case I didn’t undersell anything. I gave what I thought would happen it it was just incorrect. That’s the science of meteorology for you. Even those with higher amounts than I had still had to adjust up.

        1. I donโ€™t think any met undersells. And I donโ€™t think any met hypes. I do think each one does the best he or she can with what he has. I have little understanding of the mindset that they are gods and can somehow outsmart forces of nature. You did fine. You will never be perfect. No one is and how boring that would be. But you will always give it your all and more than that, no one can ask.

          Iโ€™d ask anyone who feels he or she has the right to criticize to stand up and explain just how perfect he or she is.

  203. Well on the bright side I’m probably a lot closer to my Logan and JP seasonal guesses than I had been. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Well we knew when mine looked as if it would verify that something was going to happen. Iโ€™m never right

  204. Snow done here. I measure fourteen and seven eights. What is that? 14.875? Tom….helllppppp please

    2. You may get one more little batch of light snow coming through in about 90 minutes.

  206. 12.5 inches on the deck and grass here in north reading…about 10inches on the driveway..still showing lightly

  207. Good morning all. Trying so hard for that foot but fell just shy. Measured 10 1/2โ€ here in Sturbridge. the way things have gone this winter Iโ€™ll take it!! ๐Ÿ™‚

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