Tuesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)
No big changes to the outlook previously outlined. A cold air mass dominates the region the next few days, with a little instability creating a daily snow shower risk today through Thursday, most enhanced chance being Wednesday with the aid of an upper level disturbance. By late Friday we’ll be watching a weak system approaching from the west, but it looks somewhat similar to the one that gave NYC minor snow and southwestern New England flurries last Friday, and may do very much the same thing as much of it passes south of the region Friday night. Will keep an eye on it in case since it’s more than a few days away. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a brief snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing snow flurry. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of snow/mix late, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Clearing. Risk of snow early, favoring the South Coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure likely travels through the Great Lakes bringing a brief mix to rain threat here March 10 to early March 11. Colder air follows briefly and an upper low may bring snow showers March 12. Dry weather and moderating temperatures follow this as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
In typical March fashion I have my doubts any warm-up is long lasting as a system arrives from the west early in the period with some unsettled weather and some chill probably returns thereafter. This pattern at mid month remains fairly uncertain so this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

79 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    March marches onward. Tis March 5th already. Where oh where does the time go???

  6. Thank you, as always, TK!
    Please never apologize for a forecast, sir.
    I/we sincerely appreciate your efforts and maintaining this blog, such a fun place to visit!
    Even the Red Sox dropped Game Three last October and still won the 2018 World Series!

    As a non-scientist, I learn so much from you smart people about meteorology and the environment every day because of this blog! (even though I still think MJO is from Jim Morrison and a Doors song!!! :))

    1. I love your posts, Captain. I thought I was the only one who had that thought each time I saw MJO.

      The remainder of your comment. Absolutely.

  7. I am still amazed at how we were able to get a widespread foot of snow with no mixing whatsoever and temps consistently at 34-35F. We’ve had colder storms and yet lots of mixing.

    1. surface temps are just part of the equation, it can and has snowed with surface temps near 40, all about the air above where the snow is forming

  10. GFS/CMC/Euro not very enthusiastic about that weak system passing to our south Friday night/Sat AM. Looks right now like a miss though the FV3 is far enough north to throw a period of light snow at us from the Pike southward.

    The 12z GFS cuts the Sunday system so severely that it brings rain up to Quebec City. CMC and to some extent the Euro have colder solutions and try to force secondary redevelopment. Still mostly rain for us but that could potentially save NNE.

  11. I know I don’t post much. I’ve been “lurking” on this site for 4 or 5 years. I used to follow the Channel 4 Blog and that led me here. I am in charge of snow and ice removal operations for a municipality on the south shore. We subscribe to a paid weather service to provide us with accurate weather forecasts so I can make educated decisions on the when, where, how, why and how much of removing snow and ice from roads. I have found that TK’s forecast and others (JMA, WxW and a few others) have been invaluable to me as well this blog. It has saved my town money, made my job easier and safer. The service we subscribe to has been marginally accurate at best.
    Thank you TK for this blog and thank you to everyone who contributes. I know little about meteorology and its such a blessing to have a resource like this to rely on.
    Ill go back to lurking when the next storm get forecast. Thanks again.

    1. Great comment, this says it all. TK if you only knew how many of us appreciate your hard work (every day!) on this blog.

    2. Don’t be a stranger. It’s nice to see folks pop in even if it is just to say thanks to our dude TK. 🙂

  12. The period of March 15-22 looks like our next “interesting” period for potential winter storm chances in the northeast. Looks troughy over the east in that time frame with potential for another colder than normal period. I posted the Euro EPS above for that period and the last several GFS operational runs have been hinting at that too. There is perhaps a chance or two in that time frame for some east coast storm development. Still a long ways off but something to watch.

    1. Watch we get a perfect benchmark storm in April that brings the area near normal in snowfall:p

  15. Mark-The CPC 6-10/8-14 day outlooks have above normal temps with the cold in the Plains, Rockies, etc. How do you explain that compared to the Euro Weeklies?

    1. Their 8-14 day outlook is for Mar 12-18, primarily covering next week. Next week does look fairly mild with moderating temps. It’s towards next weekend, the 16th and beyond, where it looks to trend colder again. That time frame is mostly outside their 8-14 day period. I would expect that in the coming days their 8-14 day outlook will trend cooler.

    1. Wow, didn’t see that. I have been on NCL’s Getaway and Breakaway which are sister ships to the Escape. Those are massive 4,000+ passenger boats. Must have been incredibly strong winds to tip the ship enough to do that amount of damage inside.

      1. Febuary is probably the best month in terms of snow usually around these parts but March can also be. My Dad says Febuary is the best for skiing, but in NNE. March can be just as good

    2. This has actually happened quite a few times similarly to this in the past. 🙂 But it is fun, and fits this year’s pattern evolution perfectly.

  18. Mark, thanks for sending the model information for March and guidance for April. From the guidance for April it looks like several central northern states do not catch a break. They haven’t all winter. One of the top 5 coldest winters on record in Great Falls, Montana, thus far. They may really skip spring this year.

    I sense one more major snowstorm is on tap in SNE at some point in the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, I also see a very active pattern ahead with many precipitation events – mostly rain. In this regard, the only break we’re catching is the 3-4 day dry period we’re in now.

      1. And with all this new snow on the ground, I hope there won’t be too many localized flooding concerns.

        1. A wise person once explained to me that the reason we had little flooding in 2015 was because of sublimation.

      2. Pattern memory. I think we may actually cycle MJO back around and have a few more snow events. Not saying we’re suddenly in the March version of February 2015 but I think it’s becoming more clear that the mid month warm-up is not too strong and fairly temporary. I think we dip back into the winter zone for a bit. Eric Fisher alluded to this a few days ago, actually.

  19. Snow showers / squalls this evening (after 9PM) west to east. A few may be briefly heavy.

  20. So your saying there is a chance for my prediction I made on January 1st of a first day of spring snow event could happen.

    1. Well I surely can’t rule it out. I don’t see anything right now that says it snows that day from a deterministic standpoint, but the pattern around then may support chances.

  21. Also, to clarify. When Eric said “last one” regarding the cold, he was alluding to this possibly being the last arctic air mass with mid winter impact. The odds of getting that once we get to mid March go down drastically. We can still get cold, yes, but every day you’re going up against an increasing sun angle. The impact will become less and less.

  22. 12z Euro also a miss with the weak Friday/Saturday system however it is a colder solution than the GFS for Sunday. Sends the primary low over the UP of Michigan with secondary redevelopment over SNE. This would support a burst of snow up front changing to mix then a bit of rain in the end while NNE stays mostly frozen.

  24. I was a lurker on this blog at that time and I never posted it, but the tornado went through my neighborhood missing my house by about 800 feet. I was at work at the time and did not know if I had a house to come home to for a time. Was unnerving to say the least. I will admit as a weather fanatic I was a bit bummed that I wasn’t home to witness it though.

    1. That would have been about as front-row a seat as you could have had without major damage………….. glad everything turned out ok for you!

    2. gives me chills. I love weather but this is one phenomenon I’m happy to never witness first hand. Glad you and yours were ok.

  26. TK, thanks for the clarification on Eric’s comment. I was tuned in when he made the comment, thinking it was a head-scratcher.

  27. I’ve been following southwest Florids’s weather because my wife has been down there visiting her folks, on a very deserved vacation. She’s returning tonight to the frozen tundra.

    Most of central Florida has a wind chill advisory out. It extends to probably 20 miles or so north of Fort Myers, thus well south of Tampa. Wind chills are going to be in the ……30s ……. for a few hours tomorrow morning. ROTFLMAO !!!!! Will they make it ????

  29. Your welcome JJ, and thanks TK. Definitely a front row seat, with lots of debris in the woods including a receipt from a towing company 15 miles away that was still legible. Other than a week without power I was very fortunate. I can honestly say that seeing damage on that scale gives you a true sense of the power nature can produce.

    1. May be true but still a bold statement to make on March 5. We’ve had days 10 or more degrees colder than tomorrow will be a week into April.

      1. Agree. And I so wish TV mets wouldn’t be so definitive. If there were something like weather talk radio – wouldn’t that be fun – it would be great to hear definitive and sometimes provocative statements and have debates about them. But, I just don’t think TV mets should go down that road. If Eric couched it in terms such as “tomorrow is probably going to be the coldest day until next winter” I’d fine it more acceptable. Mets all know that any statement they make, including forecasts for what will happen in the coming 6 hours(!), is probabilistic and can never be definitive. As part of a forecast the only definitive statements are current measurements and when sunset and sunset is.

        1. Those definitive statements look great if they work out, but you need luck for that to happen. Otherwise they set you up for disappointment.

            1. April 7 was.

              April 5 was in the 30s, April 6 was in the 20s. April 7 spent most of the day in the teens.

  31. I was having a little fun with photography and freezing my fingers sticking my hands out my attic stairway window for this photo of a mid-air water drop falling from the end of an icicle. The bonus was that the drop was spherical enough to produce an inverted image of the sunset that was ongoing at the time.

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/53557078_10157121548302265_7351871588452532224_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_eui2=AeH-JMUpF__LSBZfhifwsYpUogIXz0mWsKwbBH0TdSSX4uFldin22JXfiJy1xrQnEhQyZvjDtgDIo0SBjlIVgBIlCahktvOB7-Zke3BgZiKG3g&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-2.fna&oh=1b70a0d76b065a45bc3c3c722ccccf29&oe=5CDBEB79

    2. I am really intrigued by this picture. I have been trying to figure out what I see since I saw it this afternoon

      Soooooo. It is either a Mustang hood ornament emerging from a swim and wearing a tight fitting shower cap…..pleased that the water beaded after a new wax.

      Or in a reverse direction…..a piranha coming up under a man of war with a tropical island in the distance.

        1. I really enjoy your photos. Both because they are unique and I can often see something in them.

  32. Another exciting Bruins OT win on a beautiful goal by Krejci and DeBrusk. These guys are fun to watch.

    1. I witnessed the winning goal from a small bar in Leominster. The girl that runs Tuesday night karaoke is a friend of mine.

    2. It’s cold outside, but the Bruins are red hot. They’re fun to watch. Different heroes every night it seems.

      2. Right now the Bruins & Celtics epitomize what’s good with the NHL and what’s bad with the NBA. NHL: Team, what’s an ego again? NBA: Me, me, me, I, I, I, my ego, what’s a team again?

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