Thursday Forecast

49 Comments

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Today will be the 3rd similar day in a row, cold, breezy, and just a risk of a few snow flurries as yet another minor disturbance passes. Then we moderate a little bit on Friday, although still remain colder than normal, with a minor low pressure system missing to the south Friday night. This will leave us with a decent Saturday before the next storm system impacts the region Sunday. There should be enough cold air for this system to start as snow upon arrival Sunday morning, but warmer air will win out at all levels of the atmosphere, transitioning the snow to sleet then rain rather quickly by midday, but not before some possible minor snow accumulation. This system will not hang around long as its parent low rapidly moves through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada, wrapping dry air around its back side and pushing that into the region by Monday, which will be windy and drier, but not all that cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny with isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet to rain, ending late. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Looks like a cold upper low crosses the region with clouds and a risk of snow showers March 12, followed by moderating temperatures and fair weather March 13-14. Timing of next low pressure system should bring it into the region March 15 with mix/rain showers possible. A progressive pattern should replace this with windy and colder weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
This period will likely end up seasonable to colder than normal with at least 1 chance of storminess which may include a mix or snow. However, this is a low confidence forecast and subject to much adjustment.

49 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  5. The Sunday system will be very reminiscent of the systems we saw for the early and middle portion of winter. Great Lakes track, no way to hold cold air in. Yes it’s cold to start which is why it’ll start as snow in many areas. But that will last a very short time. At 72 hours from the start of the event, I’ll say our maximum snow total potential is about 2 inches in the central MA hills to about a coating at the coast.

    1. Agree or orientation and progression of system. 2″ is probably the max at elevations and that is on grass or cold surfaces. This has trended weaker than I was anticipating (and it was never big)

      I think the media has been fine on this one but over performance of the prior event tends to have the public hearing snow and thinking repeat.

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A bit chilly for March this morning, but a beautiful morning just the same.
    Down to 12 in JP.

    No heavy coat today either. Only 4 times this Winter season did I place a heavy Winter
    coat upon my body. 🙂

  9. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Frigid here this morning with a low of -1F! That’s about as cold as it gets around here on March 7th. I am sure the deep snowpack helped last night with the radiational cooling.

    TK or JMA, any thoughts on the storm’s impact Sunday at Jay Peak in northern VT? Do they stay all snow? Looks to me like maybe 3-5″ in the AM and then tapering off PM. It appears most of the meaningful precip is out of there by the time it warms up enough in the PM. As you said above, not a lot of QPF with this. Thanks.

    1. Impressive. Wondering why I don’t remember that one???
      I remember 3 biggies the following year, Dec 60, Jan 61 (Inaugural day storm)
      and Feb 60 (ground Hog day storm)

      1. Nantucket 31.3 inches…that was INCREDIBLE!!!

        Even Boston has yet to make the 30-inch mark.

        2/6-7/1978 = 27.1”

        Thanks CF! 🙂

  14. Question For Eric Fisher
    Eric, sounds like we are turning the page to spring. Are we done with significant snow storms in your opinion

    His Answer
    Still gotta watch the week after St. Patrick’s Day for perhaps some more wintry weather. Naturally no slam dunks this far in advance but I wouldn’t rule it out

    Another Eric Fisher Tweet
    Week after St. Patrick’s Day looking cold across most of the country. Woof. New England looks fairly seasonable overall, though. Probably will feature our final shot for some measurable snow?

  16. Harvey already has a snowfall map for Sunday with a swath of 1-2” including Boston. In fact, he showed a model with specifically 2” for Boston. Didn’t notice which model it was though.

    1. It ain’t the Euro…. Not sure which, because I have yet to see one
      with 2 inches for Boston.

    2. I spent the day finishing compiling everything for my taxes to be done. I plan this year to record everything monthly…..hahahahahahahaha

      1. I was looking forward to having the weekend off Philip as this will be the third in a row if I get called in .

  19. It will be interesting if Boston gets to the 30 inch mark for the season. Starting February it was looking least one of the least snowiest winters on record. No this winter isn’t even in the top 20 for least snowiest winters.

  20. If someone had to drive from Boston to North Conway leaving around 9 am Sunday morning. What kind of weather will they experience? Rain to snow the further north?

    1. The rain/snow line should make it up to about the Lakes Region midday, and north of there it will likely stay as snow.

  21. I really hope the Sunday event shifts to the night or shifts to Saturday. Hoping to go skiing, and can’t do it on Saturday.

    1. It’s not shifting to Saturday. High pressure right overhead that day. Bright & dry.

  22. Tk what tine are you thinking ballpark for medical area around 4am or sooner . Do you think 1-2 inches . Thank you .

  23. Another “2 goals in the last 37 seconds to win the game” finish by the Bruins. You can’t not watch them.

    2. MY team. Love them! All other Boston teams are secondary to my Bruins, which says alot because I am a huge Sox and Pats fan. Like the Celtics, but not the current team they have. Disappointing bunch of ego-driven players. Waste of talent when they can’t make it work together.

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